Bertz

Candelario's suddenly become damn near as bad as Morel on defense this year. 3B is in a weird spot sort of league wide right now. Trending very stars and scrubs.

Even after the Tiroco trade that's an open starting pitcher and infielder spot at Iowa. Noland and Shaw presumably? Do we get additional moves for Triantos and Franklin too?

That is normally an extremely positive sign, right?

Dan Szymborski had a really good article on this stuff last year. The https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-hitter-xstats-are-useful/ So 2 parts xwOBA to 1 part wOBA for a full season, probably more like 3:1 or 4:1 currently in Morel's case.

I think, setting aside the batted ball stuff, now's probably not the time to trade Morel. The 3B market this winter is basically just Paredes and Bregman. If you are pulling down one of them then yeah sure Morel is expendable. Otherwise I think you probably go internal at 3B, i.e. Shaw, and use your resources on the other roster holes. The problem is that even if Shaw goes to Iowa on Friday and crushes for the next two months, there's some pretty significant downside risk heading into next year with him penciled in. And if Morel's also gone, you once again are looking at a situation where your backup plan at the position is some sort of Mastrobuoni platoon. I don't think Morel is long term for the roster, but I think he's got another 1-1.5 seasons before he makes sense to be dealt

Kiley McDaniel

Yeah that seems like a possibility. I'm pretty shocked it's being considered after 3 rehab outings but I guess he'll work low leverage for the first week or three regardless so maybe it doesn't matter?

It appears to be pretty high end stuff and fairly poor control. Curious if he's going to Iowa or I'd he's taking the Palencia roster spot given they were announced at the same time

He isn't hitting nearly enough balls to CF to account for that gap. And the lower EV/more balls hit OOZ would be captured in launch angle and exit velo and be accounted for in that xwOBA. Apologies for the horrendous formatting, but this is Morel's balls to pull/center/oppo by batted ball type. Barrels - 39% / 52% / 10% Non Barrel FBs/LDs - 46% / 31% / 23% Pop-ups- 12% / 38% / 50% Groundballs - 61% / 33 % / 6% Here are the league numbers Barrels- 45% / 52% / 14% Non Barrel FBs/LDs - 30% / 37% / 34% Popups - 20% / 23% / 56% Groundballs - 49% / 39% / 13% Aha! Morel's hitting more barrels to CF. However difference between Morel's 52% and a more league average 41% is between 2 and 3 Barrels. That's not enough to account for 60 points of wOBA. It also doesn't account for the fact that Morel is hitting WAY more non-barrel fly balls to his pull side than the league average, which is the exact same secret sauce guys like Bellinger and Paredes are thought to have to exceed their x stats. It also doesn't account for the fact that Morel underperforms in every batted ball type: Barrels - 1.260 wOBA / 1.463 xwOBA Non Barrel FBs/LDs - .284 wOBA / .385 xwOBA Pop-ups- .000 wOBA / .020 xwOBA Groundballs - .205 wOBA / .247 xwOBA If he was on 29 other teams we'd all be saying "this guy has been ludicrously unlucky. we should buy low on him." Because the fanbase is mad at the team this year they're tying themselves into any knot they can to avoid chalking up any failure up as not being foreseeable and part of a bad process.

Trueblood made a post with some anecdata that Morel hits the ball to CF too much and so he's not actually unlucky and all the people who want to be mad at him have latched onto that as their excuse for why he is actually a bad hitter. The data doesn't actually hold up though.

I believe Aliendo is supposed to be okay at receiving and great at throwing. Then on offense it's very much power over hit. So like if it works out he's a high end backup like a Tom Murphy?

I would have liked more pitching of substance from this draft, but it's really hard not to love the bats up and down the system. The offensive group was a bit thin at MB and SB, and that's no longer the case as Smith and Mathis are probably at South Bend before Labor Day. You also have some additional youths that will see Myrtle next year on top of the IFAs that were already expected there. Catching's still kind of a black hole, and I'd love a pitcher to be legitimately excited about in between Wiggins and Horton. but overall I feel like the system is in a good spot and you're starting to see waves forming behind the Shaw/Triantos/Alcantara crew currently at Tennessee.

Annnd there's our Razorback

I didn't like Alcantara at 8 initially but marinating in it that might actually be right. Otherwise move each of Sanders and Birdsell about 8 spots in opposite directions and this feels right on.

I wonder if we see a simultaneous buy and sell deal this deadline. Specifically I wonder if we see Bellinger shipped out to make sure he's not on next year's payroll even if the team is otherwise buying. For example something like Bellinger out Jansen + Tanner Scott in. Payroll for next year is currently ~$165M, plus possibly Bellinger and possibly Neris. Neris is pacing behind where he needs to be to hit his player option, so if he does come back it means his recently improved pitching continued and he was wanted back. Set him aside. Bellinger's tougher. I'd guess it's something like 60/40 that he'd opt out if he keeps playing like he has to this point? He's playing worse than last year, but that was expected and the offense has settled in about where it was projected to without catering like '21/'22. Plus he has the QO off his back. If we assume the luxury tax line is the payroll cap again, the difference between Bellinger and not is an offseason with ~$70M to spend vs. one with ~$45M. With holes in the bullpen, C, and 3B (plus nice to haves of a RHH compliment in CF and additional heft at SP and DH) those two budget levels are very different. It's not the end of the world if Bellinger is back next year, he's probably the everyday RF and shifts Seiya to primary DH. And you're of course better insulated from Busch/Happ injuries or a PCA faceplant. But I think with PCA and Tauchman in hand there are ways you'd rather spend that money.

Wiggins feels pretty unlikely. I'm sure the team saved some money yesterday but I'd be surprised if it was enough for a top 50 overall talent.

When you're drafting a player that's not a day 1 talent, they usually have one or two major league tools and need a lot of plussing up elsewhere if they want to be anything more than a role player. This idea of "Heh you simps keep digging to find silver linings on these guys" shows you don't understand the draft or player development or attrition at a pretty fundamental level. "Player X had awesome exit velo" or "Player Y hasn't struck out since March" isn't cope it's trying to figure out what the carrying tool is for each of these new guys we've never heard of and are about to start following.

They're gearing up to pay someone a mint. My guess is it will be their 11th rounder, but honestly could be Smith or could be one of a couple of the guys today. Regardless getting worked up is very silly.

Definitely feels like they're saving money for someone. Not sure if they're popping someone fun in the 11th or maybe Cam Smith required more than slot, but I'd be very surprised if these guys ranked outside of the top 200-300 aren't collectively well under slot (even if one or two of them aren't).

McDaniel has him in the same range at 132 I assume Cruz needs to spend a year in Arizona, but Southisene sounds like a guy who can open next year in Myrtle?

I'll add a #4 4. For logistics reasons most of these outlets have their lists more or less done before the draft combine where Cruz broke out

107.9 would be a 21st percentile max exit velocity in the bigs. Again as a 17 year old that's some real pop.

That would be quite a lot of juice for a 17 year old. HS players aren't usually underslots but given his rankings have to wonder here.

The Cubs have a higher projected RoS winning percentage than any other team in the central right now via fangraphs. Their only outgoing FA of note is Bellinger. They will, assuming Bellinger does leave, have ~$70M standing between them and the luxury tax. They have 4-5 top 100 prospects with an ETA between now and this time next year. The hole is probably too big in 2024, but writing off 2025 as a lost season does not hold up to any scrutiny, and it's only true if the team succumbs to the mystery box thinking being suggested and trades players for unnamed prospects just for the sake of having more prospects.