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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    And overnight Gerrit Cole. This one sounds especially bad.
  2. Bertz
    That's totally fair on Amaya. I have been reticent to buy in too hard on his second half breakout, but there was nothing especially flukey under the hood there. And to your point he does grade out shockingly well on the bat speed front.
  3. Bertz
    George Kirby and Grayson Rodriguez to the IL today. Guess we're at the point of the spring where the pitching injuries are going to start piling up.
  4. Bertz
    If I'm reading Spotrac correctly, and that's an open question since I'm not nearly as financially literate with NFL as I am MLB, it's $43M *before* doing any maneuvering.
  5. Bertz
    We just don't have anyone in the same stratosphere as KB. And to be fair no one currently has a prospect in the same stratosphere as KB. But I think if you lop KB off the top of the 2014 ERA farm this crew is fairly comparable. To your point though this farm is in ROUGH shape below Iowa. There's enough teenage talent at Myrtle that I'm hopeful we have a clear sense of what the next wave looks like by this summer. But South Bend's roster is a bit weak and Tenn's is pretty much a disaster.
  6. Bertz
    I think too Brasier and Miller fill the same role in the bullpen. So even beyond his effectiveness do we really want two ROOGYs in the pen? On the flip side I saw yesterday that if they option Pearson for a few weeks they get an extra year of control. It's yucky but I'm sure that enters into the calculus.
  7. Bertz
    Game covered by TV and Statcast today
  8. Bertz
    Feels very likely Rojas is hurt, especially him not being in that box score above. I'm hoping because it's so quiet it's a sign that it's just bumps and bruises.
  9. Bertz
    Not a huge surprise but Mooney says that the expectation is that Brad Keller makes the team. Also notes that Ben Brown will be a SP. So combined with the above you'd presume he's going to open the year in Iowa.
  10. Bertz
    I presume that last night's lineup is the "real" lineup with a little bit of shuffling in the bottom half once Hoerner is back (Hoerner 5th, Shaw 9th?). Counsell is clearly following the Braves/Dodgers playbook of maxing out the power at the top of the order, and I'm here for it. So I think you're right about how a guy like PCA, whose OBP is going to teeter on the edge of the 2's and 3's, shouldn't actually lead off. I also think that for the Cubs lineup specifically, you *want* him down there at like 7th. Unless Dansby can get his groundball rate back under 40% or Gage Workman is starting on a given day, there's not a plus power hitter in the 5-9 spots of the Cubs order. So I want Nico and especially PCA to run like hell. The proverbial three run bomb likely isn't coming until the lineup flips back around to Happ. So A) you need to pull the other levers you have to pressure the opposing pitcher and B) the opportunity cost on a caught stealing is comparatively low.
  11. Bertz
  12. Bertz
    And that's why you should never post
  13. Bertz
    Ben Brown looks incredible. Really curious how much of a chance he's got at the #5 spot vs. Rea.
  14. Bertz
    There's just no chance he tops 100 innings this year. And honestly at his age and with the value he generates as a hitter good chance he never does again.
  15. Bertz
    I think mainly there's just no free lunch. Whether it manifests as homeruns or doubles or line drive singles, if your primary focus as a hitter is on "not striking out" you're almost certainly going to have a worse batted ball profile. Are there hitters who have chosen wrong? Almost certainly. But everyone's choosing to make a tradeoff.
  16. Bertz
    Yeah this is definitely the OD lineup
  17. Bertz
  18. Bertz
    I would guess our weak bench certainly hasn't helped things, but I think some of it is just life with the DH. There's a reason teams prioritized a 9th reliever over a 4th bench guy. And for the Cubs specifically Swanson's durability + the existence of Hoerner means they don't have to carry a dedicated backup shortstop. I am hoping for better bench play. Turner would make me nervous as a starter but still feels very qualified for bench work. Workman seems really fun, and Berti/Kelly are boring but I mean that as a compliment. Add in that our injury replacement at most positions is a Top 100 prospect and this *should* be a really deep team.
  19. Bertz
    Same. I also just went digging through Arizon Phil's writings. Haven't seen any news on Rojas, just a suggestion that we trade Rojas for Workman so that we have the freedom to option Workman up and down 🙃. While I was looking though, I did come across this which ties into something else you wrote:
  20. Bertz
    Do we know what's up with Jefferson Rojas? I haven't heard a peep about him this spring. I didn't expect to get inundated with Rojas, but I would expect approximately as much Rojas as we've gotten Cristian Hernandez. Like this game feels like it ought to include him.
  21. Bertz
    The tough thing with any analysis about strikeouts is the velocity/stuff explosion has been happening concurrently. How much of the increase in K's is batters and how much is pitchers? The average fastball has gone up 1.5 MPH in the pitch tracking era (since 2008). The top end has gotten even crazier. Matt Lindstrom had the highest velo in the league (minimum 50 IP) in '08 at 97.8. Last year 22 guys averaged at least that hard, including a handful of SPs. 3 guys averaged over 100!
  22. Bertz
    I don't know how much of this is a league thing and how much is a Cubs thing, but this team just does not use that 4th bench spot. Like did you realize Luis Vazquez spent 47 days on the roster last year? He only got into 11 games and got 14 PAs, but he spent more than a quarter of the season on the roster. The year before Edwin Rios was a Cub for 2 months and only got 31 PAs! So I took Counsell's comment as Alcantara will likely get that treatment for a spell or two this season. So like even if say Nico goes on the IL, they might call up Alcantara to warm the bench and just leave Berti/Workman to cover Nico's lost playing time. I would imagine that it would be a week or two tops at a time and not a full Vazquez situation.
  23. Bertz
    Brewers have two of their promising young starters on the IL already. DL Hall has a late strain and just got put on the 60 day IL. Aaron Ashby strained an oblique and it doesn't sound minor. If the Brewers end up winning the division, it's most likely IMO to be because they end up getting a hell of a lot more out of guys like Hall, Ashby, and Misiorowski than we get out of our equivalents like Brown/Wicks/Horton. So it's not the biggest headline, but probably important stuff.
  24. Bertz
    Finally had time to sit down and read MLB Pipeline's list. Wow that is some writeup on Juan Tomas.
  25. Bertz
    I think Keller's got a good shot at making the roster. He's made some pretty real improvements, and there's some buzz around him. Nicky Lopez probably has a decent shot of making it to Japan because of how behind Shaw and Hoerner are, but I don't think he makes it to domestic opening day. He's playing well this spring but doesn't seem to be separating himself from Brujan or Workman. Jankowski might be the backup CF, though I doubt it. Anyone else feels like it would require an injury that has not happened yet.
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