Transmogrified Tiger

Cubs relievers are 9th in MLB in K%, Leiter Jr is top 10 of qualified individual RP, and all 4 of those guys you mentioned are striking out a quarter of the hitters they face. The pen has been far from infallible but the line of reasoning here isn't really coherent.

They are 9th in pitcher BB%, 19th in hitter K%(half a percent from being top half), and 12th in hitter IsoP, none of these are gaping flaws in the team right now. It seems pretty clear to me that the team is better than it's record, and while that's cold comfort since they probably aren't good & lucky enough to overcome that gap over the course of the season, it does mean we can be more clear eyed about what's going wrong and what the way forward should be. To me there's three main problems outside of things that boil down to luck/sequencing: The starting pitching hasn't been elite recently, so instead of potentially carrying the team it's shining a spotlight on other failures at the margins. In the first 23 games there were 4 starts with 4+ runs allowed and in the last 23 games there's been 7. This mostly boils down to the depth being tested and Taillon being horrific. If he can get sorted out(and there's no other path to try here given his contract) then this should be something that resolves itself. Hendricks avoiding disaster starts will be very important too, because I suspect he's going to get at least as long as Wesneski to prove his rotation worthiness. The position player depth has failed. Madrigal(though he deserves way less fanbase flak), Mastrobuoni, Hosmer, and now Mervis have not hit, and combined with the weird roster composition(I harped on needing LHH all winter for this reason) means that the offense is very good when it is whole but middling when inevitable trials are faced(Bellinger/Hoerner injuries, Suzuki/Wisdom slumps). Morel helps with this a bit but it's still a group with too much skill set overlap, particularly in its right handedness. First base and DH are black holes. This is related to the position player depth but I want to call it out specifically because these are positions that are supposed to help with consistency and stability in an offense, but they are bottom 5 at both spots offensively. Hosmer got a lot of ire for this but Mervis has been worse than even tempered expectations, particularly in pitch recognition. Mancini has floated under the radar but he's been bad too. Hopefully Morel keeps hitting and then once Bellinger is healthy you can start helping out more with Wisdom or even Velazquez if Mancini/Mervis can't get it going, but otherwise it's the singular spot on the team most ripe for external improvement. The pen might feel like a peculiar omission here, but I think it has the easiest way forward given the shuffling that's already taken place. It's also the spot that feels the most luck-driven(bullpen ERA is underperforming FIP and xFIP pretty dramatically) in its cause.

Castellanos forgot who he was for a minute

in my opinion, the Cubs should stop getting picked off at 1st base

This is a...confusing complaint. The Cubs current bullpen has 2 guys who average 97, 3 guys who average 95, and thus far on the season their relievers as a team are right in the middle of the pack in fastball velocity.

Triantos hitting XBH more than once a week would be a fun development

welcome back to the big leagues Mike, here's an infielder throwing an eephus with middle school velocity

Add on a HR in the 8th to push his OPS over 1.000

Merryweather since getting shelled in his first outing of the year: 17 IP, 13 H, 5 ER, 20/4 K/BB, 2 HR EDIT: Updated for his 2nd inning

what a weird play by Stott, both the slide and spin were unnecessary and slow even if it was low odds of getting Suzuki

gonna start calling Madrigal "The Weapon", see if it catches on

A little bit surprised that both Madrigal and Mastrobuoni survive that shuffling, but when you're losing a CF and a 1B there's room to do so I guess. I understand that there's not a whole lot of playing time on offer with Morel slated to get the CF time(and the bench needs that LHH infusion), but Velazquez still is probably bummed to not be back up.

It's Jim Bowden, but he lists BJ Murray in this article on "Prospects you don't know but should": https://theathletic.com/4528412/2023/05/18/mlb-prospects-mets-yankees-braves

I went to bed after 3, which meant I could overhear the PA announcer on the TV broadcast: "And that's the end of the third overtime period, I am so sorry"

Yeah, the Alcantara thing is about roster math, Davis is more about with every day/week that passes where he doesn't hit the ball with authority means this is increasingly likely who he is post-injuries.

Alcantara and Davis are really really bumming me out, we've seen guys turn it on with warmer weather before, but each of them have an urgency that I don't know if you're gonna have the confidence in their profile in time.

Really enjoying this trend

I'm curious about we think is most damaging on this front. Is it hitters getting a literal view of the fastball? In that case it feels like a very fine margin, because if hitters see 15 pitches across 3 PA against Steele, a 15% increase is 2 pitches. And if it's about the team's whole exposure to the pitch(and they're getting some view from the dugout or second hand experiences), that feels like an even more diffuse phenomenon. The other thing I wonder about(and I'm not sure how to quickly check) is how much this is a reflection of command, and the ebbs and flows of fastball use(especially to RHH) may be reflective of how many 1-0s Steele is facing v. 0-1s, etc.

there is nothing quite like a good left handed power swing, love seeing Mervis getting in front of that

Same thing for me, couple hours of CSS being broken(and the scaled images alone meant you couldn't really read anything) on both laptop and mobile. Fixed now.

Some perspective on this that won't help with all the baseball-related annoyance but is still useful. No division winner in the last 10 years has won 87 games, only 3 out of the last 60 won 88 and the rest won 90+. Even after a 7-1 hot streak, in order for the Cardinals to win 88 games they still need to play at a 96 win pace the rest of the season. To be in the wild card conversation, which last year required 87 wins but could drop as low as 84 based on past standings, they need to play at a 91 win pace the rest of the year.

Have to imagine he's been distracted by the body pillow he's been dating, James Franco style.

.180 xBA on that home run, what a great sport

The Morellercoaster continues

All 4 runs on Morel there, that was as bad as any misplay that got Schwarber his DH reputation. In some ways worse because he did not have very far to travel.