Transmogrified Tiger

Leiter Jr is a good call, I could definitely see that with similar motivation as Merryweather(who is a sneaky 31 himself). I do wonder if the appetite for that will be lower given the pen's responsibility in this year's outcome. Sure on average you should be able to do that more cheaply than you could find another Wesneski or Brown, but you also need a little bit of a foundation to work from and Thompson's collapse doesn't leave you with a deep stable you're for sure gonna ride into the 2024 pen with.

I can find optimism/spin for a fair amount of the MLB circumstances, but yeah I'm the most bummed out by what feels like stagnation when it comes to the prospect pool. There's good stuff happening, and maybe the weirdness with AA is particularly influential given how many top prospects it touches(PCA, Caissie, Wicks, Brown, Amaya). But even the guys with the strongest upwards trajectory this year have had their share of odd struggles(e.g. Brown and Horton's disaster outings), and the Iowa cohort has many that have either struggled there(Velazquez, Davis, Kilian, Heuer) or not been able to translate it in call ups(Mervis, Morel, Estrada), which really dims some of the short term hopes for improvement.

I've seen a lot of conversation about the Cubs being resigned to selling this year, and I get the impression that a lot of it is a reflex response to previous trade deadlines. If you aren't buying, you're selling, makes sense. And I think this also leads to consternation because it creates the idea that not only are things not going to plan(by all accounts the team expected to be better than their current record), but it means a change in their tactics from trying to make the next season more competitive to 'rebuilding' tactics of waiting for a future influx of talent. But when I look at the current state of things, while it's impossible to argue that things are going to plan, it's also difficult for me to see a big change in the team's approach. Here's why I think the approach may not match the mental model many people have of selling. Last year the team 'sold' to the extent that it traded 3 relievers, 2 of them on expiring deals(and the third's arm immediately exploded). While there's no doubt they shopped Happ and Contreras, Happ's market never seemed to materialize and they extended him(meaning they clearly prioritized near term productivity), and the closest Contreras came to being dealt was for an MLB starter(just don't look at Urquidy's 2023). Since that deadline they've added Swanson & Taillon, as well extended the aforementioned Happ and Hoerner, so from a roster build standpoint they're *closer* than 2022 even with the uncertainty surrounding Stroman(more on him in a minute). This year's roster doesn't have as many matches to the types that are sold at deadlines. This year's FA relievers have been a bust, and most of the position player core is under contract for several years and aren't on the downslope of their career. Mancini might be attractive in different circumstances but he's been poor. Bellinger may prove to be an interesting case, but I suspect he is most similar to Contreras in that his uncertainties will not create a market that outweighs the draft compensation they would get for keeping him. Plus, as a prime-aged FA they may view keeping him under their roof beneficial for the odds of signing him in the future. There are some less common deadline deals that could happen, but those don't really fit the spirit behind 'selling'. The Effross deal last year is an excellent example, especially in hindsight but even at the time the impact on the 2023 roster of swapping him for Wesneski was thought to be neutral or an improvement. You could see that type of deal happen again, possibly with a reliever like Merryweather or Hughes, possibly with someone like Wisdom or Morel. But the real litmus test of this deadline season is going to be Stroman. If the front office likes him and feels an extension is possible, I would be very surprised to see him go. It's unlikely that extension adds much AAV so the LT impact is minimal, and with the uncertainty in the rest of the rotation(Taillon's struggles, Steele's elbow, Smyly's opt out, Wesneski's inconsistency), simply freeing up his money to use elsewhere is risky given how many holes you'd have to fill. But if the FO doesn't favor him over the next few years, or they think his desire to stay in Chicago is insincere or his salary demands untenable, then they have a really difficult decision. They can try to trade him, but as we saw with previous seasons you aren't going to get comparable maker in return(doubly so given Stroman's lesser scouting attributes in size/velo). But letting him walk for nothing(remember he can't be QO'd) would be an unacceptable drain of resources given the setback that 2023 has been on the whole. There isn't one right way to do it(maybe he signs and the plan is obvious, maybe a good trade is there to be had, maybe Brown and Horton are great in MLB next year, maybe they want to sign Urias and Ohtani), but I suspect that given how the pieces are laid out, this is possibly the most influential decision Hoyer will have to make in his tenure. So that's too many words on how I see the landscape, but really I started this as a thread so people can get specific on what the approach means to them. There's no question that it's a bummer the team isn't going to be gearing up for the stretch run at the deadline, and as such it makes sense to try to improve the roster in future seasons. But given that even the optimists among us thought a playoff spot was uncertain at best in 2023, I think it's worth thinking about what you expect to see happen at the deadline, and what consequences that has (and does not have) for 2024 and beyond.

The Cubs are 9th in LT payroll, and 5 of the 8 teams in front of them are not in playoff position(3 are under .500). This year they're paying about 105 million just to free agents signed for 15M+ AAV. Ownership is not high on the list of the team's problems, and save for maybe 2021 they never have been. Unless you want to say they should've fired Jed and the replacement would have them in better shape by now. The team is not and has not been simply looser purse strings away from a consistent winner, partially because the purse strings are not actually that tight, partially because that's not really how consistent winners are built in this era, and partially because the person signing the players isn't succeeding at a high enough rate to make that big a difference from their current state.

I would be fine with swapping Morel for Madrigal, but Morel doesn't exactly have a ton to prove with more AAA time. Mervis I think will get more PA with how often he's squaring up the ball even if results aren't coming, he's been more a victim of circumstance with a weird stretch of LH SP and the team doing its best to value the season and play to win.

There's a lot of not great options at the end of the lineup/bench right now. Since his HR streak ended, Morel has a .251 OPS and 36% K%, plus he hasn't looked MLB caliber in the OF which narrows the ways he can be used.

Here's the highlights of what each team has under team control for the midpoint of that stretch, 2026: Milwaukee Yelich Ashby Peralta Contreras Toro New MLBers who haven't broken through: Turang, Mitchell 4 prospects 50 FV or greater EDIT: Actually 3 since I said Turang already St. Louis Arenado Contreras Carlson Nootbaar Donovan Gorman 5 prospects 50 FV or greater Chicago Swanson Suzuki Taillon Happ Hoerner Steele Wisdom New MLBers who haven't broken through: Mervis, Morel 5 prospects 50 FV or greater Cincinnati Greene Stephenson Lodolo Ashcraft Steer 7 prospects 50 FV or greater EDIT: whoops it's 6 since Steer is one of them Pittsburgh Reynolds Hayes Cruz Suwinski 5 prospects 50 FV or greater Given those lists, the financial resources those teams typically have, and the shorter term outlook for these teams, I'd say it's roughly: Cardinals/Brewers Cubs gap Reds Pirates

lol another double for Madrigal, he has never had an IsoP above .120 at any level and it's getting close to .400 for this Iowa stint

I love this so much. There's no way Miami can do this financially without shenanigans, and they tried that already and got punishment they are actually still serving. Plus with those 2 and Messi in the same 11 the defensive work rate will be so low and the attacking quality so high that every game would be 4-3 chaos. Permanent MLS After Dark, bring it on.

I don't think it's very reactionary to drop a guy from the back half of the top 100 when he puts up a .600 OPS for 2 months. There's no rule that he can't be moved back in and falling on his face(as opposed to merely being okay or marginally worse than he was at Myrtle) is damaging to his trajectory.

This is more describing effects than causes, but what stuck out to me when I checked before his last start was Taillon's LOB%(he'd be dead last of qualifying SP if he qualified) and associated struggles with men on. It's way out of line with his past. 2021 - 73% LOB% Bases Empty: .702 OPS against, 25% K%, 6% BB% Runners On: .756 OPS against, 19% K%, 8% BB% 2022 - 75% LOB% Bases Empty: .687 OPS against, 20% K%, 4% BB% Runners On: .758 OPS against, 21% K%, 5% BB% 2023 - 50% LOB% Bases Empty: .669 OPS against, 20% K%, 6% BB% Runners On: .968 OPS against, 21% K%, 6% BB% To me this is actually an encouraging thing to have go wrong, at least as far as things going wrong go. Because it pretty strongly implies there's something Taillon is doing/not doing with runners on that's breaking, as opposed to some degradation of stuff or command. It could be pitch mix, but my intuition is that it's more in the mechanical realm, or maybe even tipping?

I realize there's a little bit of cognitive dissonance to say this in the midst of Messimania, but my general feeling is eh. They're taking up the Chinese Super League mantle from a couple years ago of paying huge money to players who have to move down a competitive rung, and while MLS has and will do those deals again, they're the ones that have a pretty spotty hit rate. Maybe it hurts some of the marketing juice you'd get, but the best solution for that is success. The Fire still can't draw any more fans with or without Shaqiri for example, so the next Shaqiri taking nation state money instead doesn't hurt the league a ton since he's barely been starter caliber in MLS.

the temptation to change your name to wolf scalpersson is almost overwhelming

what is the deal with these outside corners the last 2 days, they aren't even moving from in the zone to out, they just never get within 6 inches

Wesneski's last 8 starts(including the long relief of Steele's injury): 40 IP, 3.38 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 31/6 K/BB

Mervis really needed that, and to capitalize on a big inning too

Madrigal has two doubles, that's now 8 XBH in 37 PA at Iowa. He had 11 XBH in 326 PA as a Cub and 19 XBH in 324 PA for the White Sox

Alcantara has raised his season OPS by 47 points today

5 weeks til my Inter Miami/St Louis City tickets, if this is gonna happen let's get it moving

Yeah AFAIK the main utility for deleting was accidental double posts or people essentially editing with a new post that obviated the one they just made. Mods do have the ability to hide or delete posts so in the meantime if you ever want that you can ask, publicly or otherwise.

Yep, after the egregious calls at the plate, the next half inning Cuzzi started ringing up a strike for Hendricks(which was not a strike but closer than all the strike 3s from the last inning) and then stopped, then Ross said some magic words from the dugout and got tossed. He came out to get his money's worth and very clearly told him he had already missed 5 calls in less than 2 innings.

one of the most tactical ejections I've ever seen, wonder if it'll work

Don't look up how things went for McGwire in the 2nd

Is the Petco Hawkeye system busted or something, this is a late 90s strike zone

would have been nice to not have 2 hitters punched out on balls that inning