Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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IMO things would have to go very wrong in a very specific way(think Stroman + Steele needing TJS) for them to deviate significantly from the path they're on. What I could see is if things are particularly bad/unlucky, that might influence their decision on whether or not to go over the LT next year. They were careful to not exceed it this year, and a .500ish team that looks poised to make the jump is an easy sell on paying the tax if needed. But if it's a 70 win team where Mervis, Morel, and Wesneski all flop to varying degrees, I could see them staying under given the amount of holes that would still exist. I don't think it would change all that much on who and how they spend the money they do have available to them. Ultimately though, they almost certainly won't continue being this much worse than the sum of their parts for the whole season. So either they'll get hot and sort some things out and hit that .500ish trajectory, or the individual stat lines start taking a hit, and if that happens you need to see *how* it happens to see what it means for 2024. A 70 win team that can't catch a break because Mancini is unplayable, Bellinger goes back in the tank, and the bullpen can't find traction has a different outlook than a 70 win team that has 1-2 SP worth being in a playoff rotation and 4 unsettled lineup spots because none of the young bats are seizing them.
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I've seen that our group is not a terribly tough one, but 3 wins and 5/0 goals for/against sure looks formidable.
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Welcome! 19 game sample sizes are extremely random, so we can't really conclude much based on the team's results. Even then, the Cubs are giving up 4.37 runs per game when Barnhart starts, and 4.33 when he doesn't. The offense is averaging 2.4 runs per game when Barnhart starts, and 6.2 runs per game when he doesn't. He's clearly not doing a ton offensively but I don't think he's the primary cause there. -
I get the thinking here, but at the same time the two Cubs starters who rank(or would rank given IP) in the Top 50 of qualified SP in velo are Taillon and Wesneski, the two objectively worst performers. Over a third of SP who are averaging 95+ have an ERA over 4, and at most 3 of them were reasonably available this offseason. It's not the singular sign of success but teams know it helps and they hoard it.
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Pleasantly surprised with Mervis's defensive work on infield throws
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-25-23
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Iowa running out several pitchers of interest today: Wesneski - 4 IP, 2 H, 3 R (1 ER), 4/2 K/BB, HR Horn - 1 perfect, 0 K Palencia - 1 IP, 0 H, 2/1 K/BB -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-25-23
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Wicks' last 6 starts: 30 IP, 16 H, 7 R, 31/6 K/BB, 2 HR -
Because (AFAIK) xBA is just a reflection of EV and launch angle, there are some edge cases in looking at it descriptively like this. Objectively all of those are not good contact and reflect that most of them were off balance and not barreled, but the fact that their placement and launch angle(which from the pitcher's perspective is basically random happenstance)are likely to be a single means the xBA is high. Process over result, essentially, even though it's an 'expected' stat.
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that was such a lazy approach by McNeil I thought I was watching myself playing slow pitch for a second
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Yeah you absolutely cannot pick up Hendricks' option, even if he's very good he's still dancing a razor's edge to be good. There's no stability or floor you're locking in, and it's the same AAV that guys like Eovaldi and Senga (and Taillon) got.
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Memorial Day Weekend grade for the Cubs
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Stroman would be only opting out of 1 year though, he signed a 3 year deal with an opt out after 2. Which maybe was inevitable barring injury/collapse given the league wide spending last year, but a sub-3 ERA he's at now would almost certainly seal it. -
Memorial Day Weekend grade for the Cubs
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
When you said they got a D+ I knew I only needed to ctrl-f for "mooney" to find the Cubs blurb. C+/B-, the results aren't ideal but at Memorial Day it's a rounding error for where they should be expected to be. For the team's long term trajectory the individual results have been good(save for Taillon and I guess Mervis) and bordering on too good(increased likelihood of Stroman opt out). Their biggest areas for improvement save for just adding a stud hitter or SP are among the easier things to address both internally(bullpen shuffle) and externally(1B/DH are not expensive). If they can get Taillon out of that funk and back to at least being competitive I'll feel pretty good about them moving forward. -
My glass half full take on Hendricks is that I think the rest from his injury and the focus on increasing his velocity combined with him looking sharp in AAA means he can be pretty good. I think he'll probably have a couple games where he gets burned by the long ball or imperfect command(so something a bit worse than his pre-pandemic levels in total), but the aforementioned rest and not pitching in games til May should help hedge against it. The glass half empty take is that even with some improved velocity, he's old enough that he's not going to have the elite sharpness of command he needs for every single hitter at the MLB level, and when he doesn't have that he's batting practice so he'll have a handful of blow up starts and a handful more that are really frustrating 5 IP, 3-4 R where one bad inning or a couple bad hitters kills him. That guy doesn't deserve the rotation spot over Wesneski(or Brown later in the year), but I'm not sure he'll be bad enough to give the org the conviction to cut him. If he doesn't have it, getting rocked repeatedly could be a small mercy in that regard.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-24-23
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Keegan got lit up in his first Iowa appearance: 0.2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 0/3 K/BB, HR -
I couldn't see exactly but I think Alonso might've bit hard on Hoerner's deke
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the sanker is sankin
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Christopher Morel & Average Exit Velocity
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Tim's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
To this point, there haven't really been any meaningful plate discipline improvements thus far, at least when looking at his MLB time as a whole: The swing/mechanics changes are clearly allowing him to do more damage though, so that probably gives him more margin for error in that regard than he had last year. Also, 6/3 K/BB in his last 22 PA during the HR streak is at least the start of some good signs. -
turns out that going on a hike in between fielding and throwing the ball is ill advised
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I swear half of Morel's home runs look almost unintentional, like he hit that 108 off the bat and it didn't particularly look like he got his best swing on it
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-23-23
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
There's a week gap in there and he wasn't tearing the cover off the ball in that time, but PCA has 4 walks in his last 32 PA. -
lol how does JD come up with these puns even when it's not sure if they're still on air
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Nimmo runs well and it'd be an awkward throw so it's not an outright mistake, but a little surprised Wisdom didn't commit to what looked like his first reaction and go home
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Seiya doing first pitch damage is an excellent sign
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Am I missing something obvious, or why wouldn't it be Bam that is put on Jokic defensively?
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Madrigal I think gets a little bit of a bum rap because of some folks' predisposition against guys with his profile(call it PTSDusty maybe), and I've been pleasantly surprised at how good he's been at 3B. Also, I do think his numbers have been depressed by being a bit of a sacrificial lamb and drawing a disproportionate number of PA against the best starters/those with elite stuff, which not only keeps his production a touch lower but shields the alternatives. That said, this is an argument that's much more valid if Madrigal is around an 80-85 wRC+, not 60. And I don't see a whole lot of reason to have Madrigal and Mastrobuoni to be half of your every day bench. I don't have super strong feelings on which one should go away(Mastrobuoni is LHH but hasn't shown anything with the bat, Madrigal has shown more defensively and historically with the bat), but one should be going to Iowa soon.
