Transmogrified Tiger

Alzolay threw 20 pitches yesterday, and 1 pitch in the 8 days prior to that

They sacrificed Tauchman(career 30% K% against LHP) against a crossfire LHRP, especially with Mancini getting thrown out it didn't make a difference.

that has to be strike 1 on Siri after the call Mancini got 2 minutes ago

The glove has to touch Mancini right? A little surprised that wasn't challenged all things considered, because I don't think the glove touched him before his hand got in.

I flipped it on right as this was starting so I might be missing other context, but Steele's reaction was very slight(the broadcast barely caught him shaking his arm in slow mo) so it's possible it was a twinge that went away or he's having a classic Bryant day game illness and couldn't go further. Or he just Chet Steadman'd his way through the rest of this inning and he'll never pitch again.

nothing gold can stay

I don't think prospect consolidation is a goal of the deadline, but the composition of the roster doesn't really lend itself to people's mental image of 'selling'. Last year the only players actually traded were relievers, and this year's rental relievers are untradeable. Otherwise you have two 'expiring' deals in Bellinger and Stroman, in which Bellinger probably has a lot in common with Contreras where it's an uphill battle to get superior value to the draft capital from his QO. And Stroman is loudly asking to stay, while they have a solid position player core locked up and money to spend. What's most likely to me is that they neither give nor take rentals, but make a trade to improve in 2024. That could look like the Effross/Wesneski trade (maybe someone really likes Hughes?), but more likely it's taking on guys getting too expensive for their current teams with team control beyond 2023. Now's the time for the next generation Aramis trade, but if they aren't in the thick of the wild card chase you don't need to have the Lofton part.

I just tend to think they have a lot more buttons to press before they get to that point. Right now they have a pecking order with Alzolay/Leiter/Merryweather that have been consistently good this year, plus Hughes has been mostly fine and has past performance to lean on. You've got the 6 guys I mentioned above you can funnel to the MLB pen, you've got Burdi coming off the IL to get a real shot, Horn looks about ready for his chance, Assad has been fine 1st time through the order and would maybe gain a tick in short relief, and Estrada hasn't DQed himself from being a positive contributor.

Mooney was careful in his wording and I think he's making a more general association of 'well if they do it with Wesneski then why not Brown?' than giving insight into the org's thinking. I don't think that's out of the question, especially given he only threw 104 IP last year so he likely has a ceiling they don't want to push him past. That said, at his current rates he can get to a modest IP increase by finishing the MiLB season as a starter, and they're already making several aggressive moves that are aimed at short term bullpen help(Wesneski, Palencia, Little) on top of the return to health/form options(Heuer, Keegan, Roberts) so I think Brown is a 'maybe in September' type of situation.

I do not have one and am not 100% sure what they look like, but if you're local, I did notice variants of these for many local universities at the team store on Michigan avenue when I was there earlier this month: https://www.ivyshop.com/products/chicago-cubs-and-university-of-illinois-adjustable-cap

Merryweather since his first outing of the year: Date Team Opp GS W L SV HLD IP TBF H R ER HR BB SO K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB EV ERA FIP xFIP Total - - - - - - 0 0 0 0 0 20.0 81 18 6 6 2 4 27 12.15 1.80 0.90 .333 83.3% 42.0% 10.5% 88.9 2.70 2.49 2.71

That's the good stuff Alzolay

FWIW I've seen this pretty consistently. I can't recall if it was happening at the very beginning when we migrated over(partially because there weren't game threads or articles on day 1, the most common movers), but it definitely has happened 100% of the time for a while.

For some reason I had it in my head that Stroman was more like 30 than 32, which in one sense is more scary but also takes away some of the length that could scare off the front office. If it were 4/100 (thru 2027) I'd have to think long and hard about it given that it's not really new money(it'd increase his LT hit < 2 million), especially if there were signs outside the obvious that Smyly was going to opt out.

It seems like there's a decent number of college infielders mocked to the middle of the first round, which is interesting to me but I also have no idea how to think about them. One because following the draft in general is throwing darts blindfolded, but in this case especially because the defensive outcomes can change the perspective so dramatically. We don't have to look further back than how Hoerner was perceived defensively v. how that has played out in practice and what that's done for his ceiling as a player. Considering the front office's affinity for guys who hit in the Cape, Troy and Shaw stand out as likely options. I'm also simultaneously intrigued and terrified by Enrique Bradfield, and wonder how much of Chase Davis and Brock Wilken's breakouts reflect real developmental progress too.

Keegan got crushed in Iowa again, not too far from the point where it'd be a good thing if he was hurt.

I think it's just coincidence with a LH SP on Saturday, and today a righty they wanted to load up on RHH for(Rios and Mastro aren't starting today either)

baseball is fun they said, a great sport they said

IMO things would have to go very wrong in a very specific way(think Stroman + Steele needing TJS) for them to deviate significantly from the path they're on. What I could see is if things are particularly bad/unlucky, that might influence their decision on whether or not to go over the LT next year. They were careful to not exceed it this year, and a .500ish team that looks poised to make the jump is an easy sell on paying the tax if needed. But if it's a 70 win team where Mervis, Morel, and Wesneski all flop to varying degrees, I could see them staying under given the amount of holes that would still exist. I don't think it would change all that much on who and how they spend the money they do have available to them. Ultimately though, they almost certainly won't continue being this much worse than the sum of their parts for the whole season. So either they'll get hot and sort some things out and hit that .500ish trajectory, or the individual stat lines start taking a hit, and if that happens you need to see *how* it happens to see what it means for 2024. A 70 win team that can't catch a break because Mancini is unplayable, Bellinger goes back in the tank, and the bullpen can't find traction has a different outlook than a 70 win team that has 1-2 SP worth being in a playoff rotation and 4 unsettled lineup spots because none of the young bats are seizing them.

I've seen that our group is not a terribly tough one, but 3 wins and 5/0 goals for/against sure looks formidable.

Welcome! 19 game sample sizes are extremely random, so we can't really conclude much based on the team's results. Even then, the Cubs are giving up 4.37 runs per game when Barnhart starts, and 4.33 when he doesn't. The offense is averaging 2.4 runs per game when Barnhart starts, and 6.2 runs per game when he doesn't. He's clearly not doing a ton offensively but I don't think he's the primary cause there.

I get the thinking here, but at the same time the two Cubs starters who rank(or would rank given IP) in the Top 50 of qualified SP in velo are Taillon and Wesneski, the two objectively worst performers. Over a third of SP who are averaging 95+ have an ERA over 4, and at most 3 of them were reasonably available this offseason. It's not the singular sign of success but teams know it helps and they hoard it.

Pleasantly surprised with Mervis's defensive work on infield throws

Iowa running out several pitchers of interest today: Wesneski - 4 IP, 2 H, 3 R (1 ER), 4/2 K/BB, HR Horn - 1 perfect, 0 K Palencia - 1 IP, 0 H, 2/1 K/BB

Wicks' last 6 starts: 30 IP, 16 H, 7 R, 31/6 K/BB, 2 HR