Transmogrified Tiger

The Cardinals need to play at a 98 win pace to match the pace of the last wild card team and 100 win pace for the current division lead. They are closer to 1.8% odds for the division than 18% odds.

I love the mental image of Kyle reading about someone musing that Brown might get some time in the bullpen this year and then reacting this way to the discovery that he is not in fact Justin Verlander reincarnated

I'm sorry but that is unacceptable incompetence, that absolutely cannot be the outcome, it's borderline play under protest stuff

I don't understand how umpires miss these when the fielder is behind the base and tag the guy on the knee, obviously safe in real time

Keegan with 5 BB in 1.2 IP today, I'm mentally at the point where I hope he can be a 2025 contributor post-surgery

I think it's what Matt said about the team maximizing matchups and playing to win over development given the precarious spot they're in at the moment. Mervis has been out of the lineup 4 of the last 6 games, in all 4 of those the only LHH to start was Tauchman(which the team sees as a necessity due to Morel's poor OF defense), which reinforces that it's not about Mervis if Mastrobuoni and Rios aren't playing either while Morel(who is in a funk himself) does play. Also I think it's a little bit of odd matchup luck, 2 of those 6 were against LH SP, another was against Wacha(who has reverse splits thanks to his changeup over hundreds of IP), and the last was against Ashcraft(who has extreme reverse splits in 160 MLB IP). Unfortunately that odd luck looks like it might continue since after Darvish today they're lined up to face LHSP in 4 of the following 5 games through the Angels series.

1st and 2nd no out in the 8th, one run lead, and Bogaerts/Tatis/Soto/Machado/Cronenworth due up: GIDP, K, K, K, K

yeesh Mancini has looked cooked this year, really need him to show some signs of life

just immense stuff, Alzolay

Swanson is a Top 10 position player by fWAR

That's an encouraging inning from Taillon. He's been weirdly horrific out of the stretch in particular, so to go to that for the first time facing 3-4 for the second time and set them down is progress.

10 BB in his last 70 PA for PCA

I hesitate to put a lot of stock on the literal numbers for things like DRS or RAA after just 50 games, though it doesn't at least disagree with a crude number like defensive efficiency, which has the Cubs 12th. In either case, the difference between the Cubs current level and a Top 5 defense is just a few runs saved, and there's so much noise in that 50 game sample that I don't want to ascribe a ton of meaning to it. There's also the expected improvements from positive regression from the corner OFs and Mervis passing the eye test. If there's one spot where defense has me concerned though, it's Morel. He hasn't looked up to the task of being a MLB OF so far this year, and that's really damaging to his potential role. Without being playable in the OF(and given how much Tauchman has played recently that seems to be the org's view at the moment), he essentially becomes a younger, more athletic Wisdom. That's a good thing to have, but a lot less helpful to the 2023(and 2024) Cubs that have Wisdom. Given that Morel's homer-fueled hot streak has dried up(2 for his last 22 w/ 10/1 K/BB), and Wisdom has stabilized a little bit from the deepest depths of his slump, I wonder if the best thing isn't Morel going back to Iowa to get as many OF reps as he can. I could even see the argument for getting him as many 3B reps as he can, with an eye on making him the best version of himself at his best position as the way forward. But the status quo doesn't seem sustainable there, and every day that Bellinger gets closer to returning or that Madrigal/Velazquez continue raking at AAA nudges us closer to that decision.

elsewhere in 'Messi is not coming to Miami' vibes

I did chuckle at Walker getting demoted because he wasn't quite MLB ready with the bat or glove, struggling at AAA(which he continues to do with a 91 wRC+), and *then* getting bumped up to #1 overall by at least one source.

Madrigal is 10 for 20 with 2/0 BB/K and 5 XBH since being demoted.

Looks like league-wide CS% for the Southern League is 21%, so Aliendo would be about 2 CS off given attempts so far. Given that his CS% was in the 20s at High A I wouldn't read a ton into it, though worth monitoring given the new environment for SB.

Agreed, I actually was drafting a blog post to this point because I wanted to explore it in a little depth, but even though May was really frustrating to watch, I'm probably more optimistic about the 2024 team than I was at the start of the season, given what we've learned from the 2023 season as a whole.

watching all those top of the zone strikes this inning and now ever more salty about this at bat

yeah that's why I don't blame Mastro for swinging, this zone is an adventure

am I crazy or is the K-Zone like 30% smaller

I don't know the specifics of the rules, but my guess is they're taking a gamble since it's a use it or lose it thing?

That was a goood sweeper from Fulmer, he'll be fine if he keeps throwing those in that spot

come on, that doesn't even have the trajectory of a strike, it's never over the plate

I mean the reality is that Tauchman is up, you can blame the roster construction if you prefer, but the only other real option is Morel, who has been brutal defensively(not ideal for protecting a lead) and K's that much against everybody. They maximized their chances of getting one run by sacrificing, but in that situation you haven't really damaged the odds of a big inning simply because Tauchman(who is hitting well *because* he's not seeing LHP) is a bad matchup