Jason Ross

I think you're probably going to receive assets back that are unlikely to help the Chicago Cubs for a few years. Teams simply don't trade close-to-the-MLB prospects mid-season, and when near-MLB-ready prospects do get moved, they're generally lower ceiling prospects. It'd also be one thing if these players were making inflated amounts, but neither are. Nico Hoerner is making $11.5m the next two seasons. That's a little over what teams pay for a win (wins on the free market generally go between $8 and $9m or so). Even if you project Shaw as an immediate three win player on his own, $11.5m isn't going to buy much. So while I think the return would be good, it's unlikely to be immediate. Ian Happ is signed for $21m. While he's a little less "surplus value-y" he still offers a good contract due to length/price. I'm a little more willing to move Happ (especially if Bellinger is seemingly opt-ing in). However, with a NTC, Happ's value is probably pretty limited on his own. In the end the Cubs are not rebuilding again; that much is clear. Jed Hoyer is signed through 2025 only right now; he has no reason to tear it down and not shoot for competition in 2025. The Cubs haven't fired him, which is what they'd do if they were cool with ripping it down. I'm not entirely opposed to a Happ trade, but even then, I'm not sure it's making the Cubs any better next year. A lot of this feels like fans just want to high five and say "it'll be different because these guys are gone!" and feel like real change is happening. And I don't disagree that change is needed. But I'm not sure trading either of these are bringing positive changes to the Cubs.

As the midway point of the baseball season slides by, it's time to take a look at the health of the Cubs' farm system. Today, we'll take a look at the prospects in the Cubs organization who have raised their stock throughout the 2024 season. Image courtesy of © MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK As the midway point of the baseball season slides by, it's time to take a look at the health of the Cubs' farm system. Today, we'll take a look at the prospects in the Cubs organization who have raised their stock throughout the 2024 season. Heading into the back half of the season, and with the MLB Draft looming, it's time to take a look at how the Cubs' hitting prospects are doing. These are not ranked in any specific order, as it's just an overall recap of a handful of players who have raised their stock throughout the season. Some have put themselves in prime positions for call-ups, while others have rescued their faltering prospect status. Moises Ballesteros, C, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) Very few prospects across baseball have raised their profile as much as Ballesteros has (from an offensive point of view), which is not to suggest his prospect status was low entering the season, either. Big Mo was generally seen as a back-end top-10 prospect in the system, with outside looks and honorable mentions on top-100 lists. The Cubs' catcher was coming off a good season in South Bend, posting a 128 wRC+ as a 19-year-old, and was promoted to Tennessee to start the season as one of the youngest Double-A prospects in the league. What followed was not expected, however. Mo Baller lit Double-A on fire. Through 56 games, he was 53% better than league average, hitting nine home runs, nine doubles, and even a triple, while striking out less than 15% of the time. It was one of the best seasons any 20-year-old has had in Double-A in the last two decades, comparable to the kind of stuff Mike Trout was doing (that's not to say he's Trout, of course). It was clear he was ready for Triple-A Iowa, and he was duly promoted. What's he done? Posted a 150 wRC+ in his first 10 games. There's no stopping the guy right now. Behind the plate, the glove is still a work in progress. He's not MLB-ready yet, and is showing a little more swing-and-miss in Iowa than in previous stops. That's not dousing him in water, just saying it's probably too early to pencil him into the Cubs' DH spot right now. With that said, though, doing just that in September might be viable. Owen Caissie, RF, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) Caissie remains one of the youngest players in Triple-A, and has responded by getting off the ground running. Seeing a significant decrease in his K% (under 28%) while maintaining a near 15% walk rate, the red-headed right fielder is doing almost everything right. He's flashed improved footwork in the field and a plus arm. Really, the only thing we're missing is the power. Though it's hard to entirely fault a .170 ISO, you'd like to see him generate a little extra loft. What's even more fun is going under the hood. Caissie is hitting lefties better than righties this year, suggesting he's not just a platoon guy moving forward. The contact rate, while not setting the world on fire, is likely "pretty good," at 68%. It's below both the minor- and the major-league average, but with the (projected) power and walks to go with it, that should be offset. Caissie, previously an exit-velocity specialist, has managed to post high BABIPs throughout his pro career, which suggests that when he does connect, he hits it hard enough to maintain that. It's hard to argue his profile hasn't been raised, or at least fleshed out, in 2024. James Triantos, 2B, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A) If Ballesteros hadn't had such a marvelous first half, I think we'd be paying more attention to the great year James Triantos is putting together in Tennessee. The knock on Triantos has always been the lack of slug in his game, but he's shown a newfound commitment to generating power this season, as he's hit seven home runs on the year (nearly double his four last year in High-A) while nearly doubling his ISO. The strikeout rate remains at a minuscule sub-10%, and on the whole, he's been a 138 wRC+ hitter. The diminutive second baseman has really taken off over the last month. Since the calendar ticked over to June, Triantos has a 208 wRC+; a .600+ SLG; is striking out 7% of the time; and has been absolutely scorching-hot. He's even playing better defense and finding success at second base and in center field. He's almost assuredly going to be on the move to Iowa shortly. Ed Howard, SS, South Bend Cubs (High-A) This one is less about a top prospect, but about a prospect who's raised his game and re-emerged as a potentially useful guy. I was ready to write him off, entering mid-May; he looked sluggish, slow and sapped of the energy that made him a fun and interesting prospect in 2020. He's had a tough road. He didn't get a senior year of high school (thanks, COVID); was pushed into Myrtle Beach right away (a very tough hitting environment); and then right when he started to look comfortable, he had a devastating hip injury. Upon his return from it, he looked toasted. Then... something changed. From May 25 to the present, Howard has played 24 games. In 94 plate appearances, he's managed a .379 batting average, has hit eight doubles (of his season total of 12), has a 156 wRC+, and has shown a quality approach at the plate. The only thing that's missing are the home runs. Most of all, he's remained healthy through this time. Suspend for a moment your awareness that he's a first-round pick in real danger of not panning out. Once you do so, you realize: that's a great run. A 156 wRC+ is higher than Ballesteros has in Iowa or Tennessee on the season. Yeah, it's fewer games, and yeah, it could just be a hot streak, but has he not raised his prospect profile? He finally looks like someone who's not only settled at a level, but may be really figuring a level out. At 22 years old, he's not dead, and being a 22-year-old in Tennessee (to where, like others, I suspect he'll be promoted shortly) doesn't put him behind any sort of acceptable developmental arc. Maybe he's not going to be a star, but even if he's back in play as a backup infielder at the MLB level... well, a month ago, I thought he may not even make it the entire season before being released. Great comeback story, and he deserves to be on this list. Alfonsin Rosario, OF, Myrtle Beach (Low-A) Rosario, a sixth-round selection in 2023, has really made himself known in Myrtle Beach. First, the negative: he's striking out a lot. Like, a lot, a lot. The near-35% punchout rate is not great, but that was kind of expected. The book on Rosario was "big tools, but raw." However, if we put that aside for a moment, the rest of what Rosario's been doing is nothing short of impressive. He's hit 10 home runs (many of the "very loud" variety), has an ISO north of .200, has stolen 13 bases (this man is listed at 6-foot-1, 220 pounds; he's big), and has posted a 138 wRC+ in his first taste of full-season professional baseball. Oh, did I mention he's been playing center field? The strikeouts need to get ironed out at some point, but as a sixth-round pick, Rosario is flashing all the tools you'd hope to see. There's work to do, but you don't normally expect this out of this kind of pick--at least not this quickly. He's definitely a name to watch moving forward. Maybe the strikeouts never get fixed and this will be exploited later, but I'm impressed with his start and excited to see where he goes. There's massive upside here, even if it's an unlikely ceiling to be reached. Cristian Hernández, SS, Myrtle Beach (Low-A) Hernández felt like he was really starting to wane in the public eye, because he really had struggled since being placed on the Myrtle Beach roster. Lanky and awkward, he seemed to struggle to control the barrel through the zone. Mechanical tweaks, some added muscle and all of a sudden, Hernández is cruising in South Carolina. Posting a 141 wRC+, with far improved K% and BB%, and a .135 ISO, he's starting to look like a total package. It feels like forever ago that the hype train ran out of steam, but Hernández is just 20 years old. Once he gets promoted to South Bend (which could happen any day now), he'll be in an age-appropriate league, and he's arguably a fringe-top-10 Cubs prospect, pre-Draft. This is a really great season for someone who had slid off many top-20 lists entering the year. Who do you think is having a great 2024 season so far? Have I forgotten anyone? Let me know in the comments section below! View full article

I'll admit the more legwork I've put on Malcolm Moore, the more I've been impressed. The .255 batting average this season is the one *statistical* knock, but based on everything I've read about his batted ball data, feels like it's a mitigated concern and was partially due to bad luck, partially due to a new approach at the plate. Defensively is the question, but it seems as though Moore is someone determined to try to make it work, based on that article, for whatever that's worth to you. If the Cubs believe he's an MLB catcher...he's probably moving into 1/2 position with Ryan Waldschmidt as my favorite picks at 14 right now. Cam Smith rounds out my top-3.

No idea. Interesting to note: Triantos also out tonight. Not talking trade, but could be moving day?

The hope is that Jed Hoyer has had an ability to reflect on his roster building, understand that the Cubs are truly lacking the best-of-the-best types of talents and addresses that a bit more significantly this offseason. Juan Soto is a name the Cubs should entirely go get, for example. They should be willing to swing a fairly large trade as well. I don't feel confident that Hoyer's introspective like that. But crazier things have happened.

I'd say it's deeper than Condon/Bazzana; hell, as of now, it looks like neither are going 1.1 (J.J. Weatherholt is the clubhouse leader) but either Condono or Bazzana can go as low as 1.5! I've got eight guys in my top-tier of prospects currently. There's a few guys in the 9-12 range I think stand out a little more than others...and then pretty steep drop. But yeah, the range where the Cubs are taking guys? It's a crapshoot. I think some team will convince themselves one of these guys is a star. Cam Smith, or James Tibbs are guy I think I can see a team believing that. But outside of a team really buying into one of them? I suspect there will be a lot of teams who have guy similarly rated and will go with signability.

That's not the point of that post, Cuzi. I am well aware of how you feel about Jed. I'm not super-team-Jed either at this stage. Only explaining, even if the Cubs trade players like Happ or Taillon at the deadline, it wouldn't be in the idea of a rebuild based on how that tweet interpreted Morosi. It wasn't a discussion about Hoyer's ability to perform that move, it was an explanation of what the move would be akin to. If the Cubs were doing a 2021 tear down, I fully expect Hoyer would have to be fired before the deadline. That he hasn't been should signal that whatever the Cubs are doing, it will not be a tear down, rebuild. If they trade players it will be to use whatever they get (financial flexibility, prospects, whatever) to attempt to put a competitive team on the field next year.

It's Morsi, so TIFWIW. But based on the way that tweet framed his interview, it doesn't sound like a rebuild. Call it whatever you want, but it sounded like the Cubs were going to try to either get financial flexibility to spend next offseason and/or get prospects which would help the roster (presumably they'd be younger prospects but that doesn't meant they can't be traded later or used to restock the system on other trades). How effective you believe Hoyer is at making that is also a personal opinion. But it sounds very much like Hoyer's seat ain't that hot if he's willing to trade those players. And considering his deal is up in 2025, he still has to put forth a fairly competitive team if he hopes to have a contract in 2026.

Not to speak for TT, but let's say the Cubs trade...Taillon to clear money (that we have assurances will remain in the budget next year). Maybe it's a Happ or a Suzuki. You know, just someone who makes $15-20m. But let's say they also make their version of a Jose Berrios trade like the Jays did in 2021; they were 4th place in the AL East and 5 games out of a WC spot and brought in a controllable SP for the next few years. I'm not going to speculate exactly who that is, I think any trade like that would be a bit of a shock. But that'd be a way you could do both: you trade some now and you add some for later. That's just a rough outline...there'd be more. Just...stuff like that. I don't think it has to be all one or all the other.

The trade I keep coming back to is the Blue Jays trade for Jose Berrios in 2021. Toronto was 52-48, but they were also in fourth place, in a stacked AL East and almost 5 games out of a WC spot. It's a bit different considering the Jays were probably closer to making the playoffs in 2021 than the the Cubs are in 2024. but they made that trade for the next few years. Who's the Cubs Berrios? I don't know. But I'd like to see the Cubs get creative. I'm not against exploring a Taillon trade to open up some money. Bellinger, if a team is willing to give up something decent. Moving a Happ or a Suzuki, if you can. Moving a reliever like a Miller, or a Neris (if someone wants to buy him turning it around). Not a full-fire-sale, just see what's out there. I'm fine moving some of these guys while also trying to buy some talent for the future at the same time. All of the moves I'd be making would be with an eye on competing in 2025. I think you can do both; trade some of these decent, fringe guys and also use prospect depth to maybe acquire something a little more long term.

I don't think teams would view it that way. We know better than to take how fans think of a player and think that teams perceive it the same way. I'm not sure either wave their NTC. I'm not sure the Cubs would even ask, though.

Ian Happ's 121 wRC+ is right in line with his last two (119 and 120). He's on pace for 3 wins this year (3.2 last and 3.6 the year before). Suzuki has a career 122 wRC+ and a 122 wRC+ this year. I dont think either would be selling low. Not necessarily advocating for it, only suggesting that I think both would be valued fine based on their baseball merits currently. Their NTC's change the valuation far more, IMO.

Drafting 14th this year, there's no obvious elite talents. It'd be one thing if the Cubs were drafting sixth and you could grab, like, Hagen Smith or Chase Burns? Yeah I wouldn't underslot...take those arms and be happy. Between the guys the Cubs will be picking from, I don't see a single guy you'd look at and say "that guys is so good he's a franchise cornerstone". Not today, at least. There are some nice prospects, it's not like they're drafting garbage, but I don't think there's going to be anyone at 14 that is going to stand out so well that underslotting a similar type prospect won't make sense. Cubs' internal scouting may tell a different story (like maybe they love Cam Smith or something) but that'd be an internal thing we just wouldn't know about. Outside looking in, I don't see anyone so good at 14 that I have to have 'em which makes BPA really hard. I'm not sure there will be any obvious BPA.

This draft feels like the kind of draft you underslot and try to save $700K - $1m in the first. The Cubs have recent history with this type of a draft (2022 with Horton - Ferris) which turned out really well. Malcom Moore fees like he has some...Horton to him? You look at the numbers and you come away a little underwhelmed compared to others, but he apparently models really well and turned it on down the stretch. Made huge improvements on approach this year.

Most recent BA Mock from Calazzo has the Cubs going with James Tibbs at 14 over Yesevage (15), Smith (17), Waldschmidt (24), Moore (30), and Lindsey (31). What's interesting is that in the writeup portion who's name pops up again? Malcom Moore. This seems to be a reoccurring theme recently, where Moore's name keeps getting connected to the Cubs. Just back pocket stuff, but I'd keep that name on a shortlist of "guys the Cubs might draft" in a few weeks if I were you!

First thing that jumped out to me on Dax Whitney is that he's from Idaho; a rare area for draftable prospects. Reason why is because it got me thinking about 2022 when the Cubs went out and drafted Brock Blatter in the last handful of rounds (16? Around there). Blatter was from Montana; same-ish region. Sadly, the Cubs weren't able to get Blatter in; they kind of ran out of bonus money snagging up guys like JP Wheat (which was a find choice, then and now!), but they've show a willingness to scout that region and find prep arms in that region. I'm still on quite bullish on PJ Moralando as my "please, draft this guy in the 2nd round!" soap box pick, but I wonder if the Cubs are more likely to snag a guy like Whitney though.

How many times can 1908 and TT post the same thread? Added an extra question for you! 🤣

I wouldn't even say Triantos is "chasing" too much. I think it comes down to "good strtikes" and "bad strikes", too. It's kind of hard to tell...I'll admit the last 1.5 months of my life has been a lot. I'm in the process of purchasing a home, so I'm moving, packing, looking at houses, filing paperwork...let's put it this way, I'm dying in this house! But also, these games are hard to see, there's no K-zone and we don't have data. So it's not so much that I think Triantos doesn't know the zone, but maybe, struggles a bit to know the best pitches to hit always. Does that make sense? He's just a guy who knows he can hit most of the things he's thrown at Double-A. It's kind of what I'm excited to get the Savant stuff. I'd like to see his swing decision heat map. I'm just guessin' here and trying my best to take my anecdotal data (the eye test) make it actual real data. In the end, that will either support or not my opinion. And hell, I'm not always right, far from it! Guys with strong hit tools generally have to learn when it's best to not hit the ball, if that makes sense? And I'm not sure if there's any skill that's an "easy" change, approach changes can sometimes be the hardest; look at Javier Baez! It comes down to the individual. Triantos has done well to add pop to his game (a common shortfall) so we can apply the idea that he's receptive to change here and hope that if the Triple-A data suggests what I'm intimating, that he's the type capable of giving it a good old college try. With Ballesteros, I'd be pretty patient on walk rates and whatever for Triple-A. We're at small sample size. His contact% isn't even particularly "good" there right now. I think we know that the bat to ball is transferable skill he has, and I'd expect over big data sets things to calm down and settle into a normal pattern. This is a 20 year old kid, facing the best pitching he's ever faced. The same with Shaw, Triantos, and others...it's always really good to take the first bit of data with a grain of salt until that sample gets into the 100 PA range. Even then, there's so much with learning the league, new fields, new arms, new talent levels...

According to the Athletic, in an article co-authored by Patrick Mooney (which likely gives the credentials), the Yankees and Rangers are specifically mentioned as teams eyeing the Cubs, and more specifically, Cody Bellinger. There's nothing really of note outside of that; no names coming back discussed, nor any real mention of how likely the Cubs would be to consider it.

Hey, it's cool if we differ here, @Bertz we're talking subjective things. And you're not wrong, sometimes when guys go on heaters, they walk less. But it's not a hard and fast rule, either. Two of the other Cubs great hitting prospects have seen heaters in Tennessee as well, and neither has stopped walking full-stop. Ballesteros maintained his walks through his entire time in Tennessee, and even over Shaw's monster heater he's walked 11 times. All of this is anecdotal, we can find data points to support either side, so please don't think I'm making hard-and-fast-rules, too. But I'm going to be honest with you; I do have issues with his approach as is. I do think he's too swing happy. As stated, the hope is that this is a "I'm too good for Double-A" and he'll settle back in a bit at Triple-A. I also think that MiLB numbers can hide process issues behind "I'm too good" for a level (which I think is helping his walk case earlier and at lower levels). Again, anecdotal, but Canario's 29 K% in Triple-A, for example isn't great, but doesn't signal "third-worst-contact% in the INT League" either. Pete Crow-Armstrong's walk rate/K% rates in Double-A didn't suggest a process issue on the surface, but he, too, has struggled with process and swing decision at both the Triple-A and MLB level. And not tooting-my-own-horn, but was something I was concerned about with PCA at Double-A, myself - his swing decisions. Not comparing the two directly; Triantos has better bat-to-ball and less hole in his swing, just using PCA as an example of how MiLB K%/B%% can hide the minutia and the process. I do think it's something to monitor on Triantos. He's cleared the "add power to his game" hurdle, which I was most concerned about. It's okay if you don't see the same thing to monitor! Like I said, we're talking subjective stuff. I had similar concerns with Shaw last year at High-A! I think he's done a really good job to assuage them this year. I think James Triantos is more than capable of making process changes, too. So, just because it's something I feel is worth monitoring and pointing out, doesn't mean I'm down on him, or super concerned. But I think it's his "next hurdle" to clear moving forward and will be the first thing I look at in the data once he (rigthtfully) makes his way to Iowa shortly.

This feels like the draft I'm playing signability games with. Grab someone like Malcom Moore (if you think he can stick at catcher) or Ryan Walldschmidt (if you think you can get him to play CF) or another one of these guys and see which one of these guys are going to sign for under slot. It's unlikely you'd save full slot, but the difference between 14 and 20 is about $1m and this draft, there's not a huge difference between the 13th and 25th picks. Hell, there might not be a big difference between 20 and 54 (the Cubs 2nd round pick). It's probable you could save $700K there and float another kid down to 54 you liked, and take two bites of the apple instead of one.