Jason Ross

I've always questioned how legitimate Charles is, but he nailed the Darvish thing. At worst, it's another link to throw on the pile.

He's been pretty awful in the limited time he's gotten in CF. He's a - 7 DRS in 540 IP there. That'd be among the worst 5 CF'ers in baseball last year defensively, Conversely, I'm not sure the Cubs have a huge hole. They've got PCA who's knocking on the door, and with his defense/speed he's basically a 2 fWAR CF'er today regardless of how he hits. They also have Mike Tauchmann, who I wouldn't really want as a starter, but if they felt PCA needed 2 months in Iowa, they'd probably survive there. He's quite athletic, but just doesn't seem to be a good fit in the OF. He takes pretty awful routes (in his limited time in CF, he's been a highly negative route runner, burst, and reaction time player). Part of that could be simply not playing there much. But part of that is instinctual, as well.

Yeah, I agree with most here. I think this is a signal the Cubs are definitely going to look to move him, but want to have a fallback if they don't. Strangely enough, he probably would be a decent enough 1b. If he hits like his career line, he'd be a slightly above average 1b, as league average 1b was 108 wRC+ and he's a career 114 wRC+. Last season he hit 119 wRC+ which would have made him the 10th best 1b in the league. Defensively, it'd probably be a bit of a questionmark, as I think 1b is a bit harder to play than "anyone, anytime, whatever" that I think sometimes it's portrayed, but he's athletic enough that you'd have to think he'd figure it mostly out. I think he's probably best served as a 2b and it's okay for the Cubs to admit that. It's also okay for the Cubs to trade players and admit that they have 2 useful 2b and that they have to pick one.

I both love and hate these articles. I love them because they're cool, but I hate them because I don't have this cool stuff.

Kiley McDaniel believes it's over 50/50 that Soto will be traded this winter. Alden Gonzalez says that the perception around the league, regardless of what Preller/Boras say, is that Soto will be dealt. "I don't think they have much of a choice", said one rival GM. The Padres are currently in a dangerous posiiton; they are out of compliance with their debt and have to get back into compliance or the MLB will intervene. While this happens frequently, and it's like the Padres will make that happen, too, they will struggle to do that without trading Soto. ESPN article and link to source From my perspective, it also makes it far more likely the Padres have zero interest in eating any money to get a better deal. That should keep the trade value (which is still Juan Soto, mind you) lower.

Per Mooney in The Athletic today. "But the Cubs again plan to be involved in Ohtani's process, a league source confirmed"

The value is in the draft pick. A supplemental round draft pick nets teams, usually, a 45 FV player. A 45 FV player has surplus value, more so, than say, a 40 FV and less than a 50. Using Hoyer's numbers, he has claimed that surplus value to be around $20m in the past. With inflation, we can assume in his mind that number is more today. Other sites would put that value at different levels, it's not a set number, but it doesn't really matter, what matters is the player has value. If you sign a player to a contract who's attached to a QO, you can effectively say you're spending X in real world dollars, but also spending the value of that 2nd round selection (which, like a supplemental round pick, is worth around a 45 FV player). It's opportunity cost. What @Bertz is trying to say, and in theory I agree with him, if you are a team who's expecting a supplemental pick from a player if he signs elsewhere, than you have an incentive to offer more than you would. In the end you can either re-sign the player or get the pick. So in the example I gave above with Soto, if the Yankees offer $300m, they're really spending $320m in total losses: $300m and the loss of the pick, which is, roughly $20m. If the Cubs offer $300m, they are then not gaining the $20m in value, so they should in theory have incentive to spend an extra $20m because they're going to lose that anyways. The Cubs giving $320m to Soto matches the same cost of the Yankees $300m in this exercise. I'm not sure teams operate in such a fashion, but an argument can be made they should.

Yeah, I'm probably pretty fine with moving James for the reasons above. There's an outcome where Triantos becomes an Alex Bregman, but I'm okay with letting another team take that gamble. To get there, you've got to get him to likely change his swing path a bit, change his approach at the plate significantly from "all contact-all-the-time" to "it's okay to strikeout if you hit more home runs". That's not a natural thing to do, and K/BB rates are the things that usually stick with players. There's also a worry about high-contact-rate guys like what we saw with Frank Schwindel; Schwindel made contact with most everything, but pitchers knew this too and they used it against him to induce weak contact. If you can get a team to buy into Triantos as a Bregman, that's an awesome outcome in a trade for a former 2nd round pick.

James Triantos famously didn't strike out once in his senior year of HS campaign, but how has he transformed himself with the Cubs? More importantly, with a strange defensive profile, where does James Triantos fit in with the Cubs? Image courtesy of James Triantos 2023 Season Review Let's get this out of the way first: James Triantos has, arguably, the best hit tool of any prospect in the entire Cubs system. We can place a few other players in the conversation, but Triantos has repeatedly proven his ability to get his bat on almost any baseball thrown to him. 2023 was no different, as he lowered his strikeout rate in South Bend to a ludicrously low 10.6% over 350 PAs. He doesn't lack for walks, as many high-hit-tool players can do, walking almost at a 10% clip on his own. Any discussion of James Triantos should start with how impressive it is for someone his age to make this much contact with the baseball. Triantos' season has taken him many places, largely brought on by the wonderful hit tool. Starting in South Bend this season, he posted a very nice 115 wRC+, mainly based on that hit tool of his. In his 350 PAs, he managed only four home runs, however. There were 17 other extra-base hits (14 doubles and three triples), but the home run numbers are slightly concerning. A full slate of games and PAs at that average, and you wouldn't get to double digits. While Triantos has impressive movement ability, swiping 16 bags, and a few of those XBHs were legged-out plays, his lack of home runs was noticeable. Despite the dearth of power, Triantos made his way to Tennessee at the end of the season to help with the playoff push. Only a little can be gleaned from a three-game sample size, but Triantos did well in those 13 PAs, picking up a few hits with runners on and genuinely aiding the Smokies' playoff run to an AA championship. Defensively, Triantos was a bit of a mixed bag. Playing at second, third, and in the outfield, he donned a glove to mixed reviews. He made a handful of errors on the season, including two in his three games in Tennessee. While his arm has never been in question (being recorded as hitting over 90mph on a radar gun his senior season), Triantos' footwork and glove are a clear work in progress. Finding a defensive home in 2024 will be a part of the plan, but there's some wiggle room on where that home is. As a reward for the great season and showing just how the Cubs feel about Triantos' prospects, he went on to play in the Arizona Fall League with other Cub top prospects like Kevin Alcantara. Earning AFL all-stat status, Triantos put on a show with the bat and with the glove. Offensively, he was second in the AFL with a .417 batting average and finished with an OPS just south of 1.200. He hit three home runs, just one shy of his entire A+ total. He also drew rave reviews on the defensive side, which is a great change, as he played multiple positions. 2024 Outlook and ETA Some obvious areas for Triantos to clean up in 2024 are the home run power and the defense. While it's encouraging to see him do well in the AFL, it's a pretty small sample size overall, and it's an environment usually tuned to hitters, as teams withhold their prized pitching prospects from overthrowing them most of the time. If Triantos is going to turn into a useful MLB regular, he'll need to increase his game power and start flashing double-digit home run power. He doesn't need to become Barry Bonds, but he does need to be able to hit 10-12 home runs a season. The good news for him is that there's power in the body, and he can likely trade some swing and miss for home runs. We saw a little of this in the AFL, as Triantos struck out 15 times in 84 PAs, a bit more than usual, but also hit for more power. Seeing him make that trade will be fine, as a 15-17 K percentage is still an impressively low number and would be a worthwhile trade-off in the long term. Defensively, he just needs to continue to work. He would only be the first prospect to struggle initially once he found his footing, and hearing a few glaringly good reports on his defense this fall was good. Small sample size and all, but good. I expect he'll continue to play 2B, 3B, and CF as the Cubs try to use him in multiple roles. Hopefully, one of these will stick for him because he likely can't hit enough to be a DH-only type. 2024 should see Triantos start and stay most of the season in Tennessee. At 21, this is a good home for a player sorting out defensive questions and keeps him on a pace for a mid-to-late 2025 ETA. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Triantos dealt. I wouldn't be looking to shop him, but his value is now at a peak following the strong 2023 AFL performance. If the Cubs remain concerned about the defensive prospects of Triantos and another team loves him, I wouldn't be surprised to see him moved. With a few other prospects at positions he can play, the Cubs could lose him, making the system generally acceptable. Regardless, it was another successful 2023 campaign for a top Cubs prospect. View full article

I believe what @Bertzis trying to say (and correct me if I'm wrong) is that because the QO has value, it should allow a team expecting to gain a QO an advantage in what they're able to offer. Let me give an example: For this practice, let's assume the QO is worth $20m in "value" and the Cubs traded for Soto. Soto doesn't sign an extension and it's now next offseason. A QO is extended to Soto and he does not accept. The Yankees offer Soto $300m. Because he has a QO attached, they really stand to spend $320m, $300m on the initial contract and then the $20m value "loss" on the draft pick. The Cubs, then, should be willing to offer the initial $300m to match, but also should be willing to offer an additional $20m because if Soto re-signs with the Cubs, they too, won't gain a supplemental pick (resulting in a $20m "loss" of value they could gain from Soto leaving). The Cubs should be willing to match the total "spend" or "loss" of the Yankees to truly "match" their offer. To match the same loss, the Cubs contract offer then should be $320m total, giving them a $20m "advantage" on what they could offer in this situation while having the same net "loss" in total value. Both teams are spending $320m, but in only one situation is that entire $320m headed to Juan Soto. Advantage: Cubs. Sadly, while in practice, it could work this way, I'm not sure we see teams operate this way. I think teams view these picks as parachute payments and simply offer the same basic contract. While losing a QO results in a gain or loss of $20m in "value" in terms of real world spending, it doesn't really equate to $20m (a 2nd round pick gets $1m or so in signing bonuses and then their pittances of a salary for a handful of years). MLB teams love to be cheap where and when they can, just look at how many teams fear the boogey man of the LT, a self imposed line that really only taxes small amounts compared to their total spending. We haven't seen players en masse receive $20m extra and stay with their current teams, so I'm not sure teams are following this way of thinking.

I think it's likely they will be outbid, but I think it's likely any team, Dodgers included, will be outbid. It's always more likely one team will go somewhere you won't or can't than not. With that said, I think it's hard to say what the Cubs will and won't do. Ohtani is unique in many ways. For what he does and how his contract will look. You can't really go "high AAV, shorter term" here because the Cubs or any team won't be offering $50m per season. I also think if you're sitting down with the Ohtani team earnestly, you have a ballpark number. I'm just not sure any team with honest effort will be outbid by a wide margin. They may be outbid, but I think those who are serious will be close-ish. And anyone outside by a wide margin wasn't serious to begin with and were likely wasting time.

This is not a source I'm familiar with, but based on who follows him (Scott Chanington of Marquee, Dave Kalpan, Paul Sporer, Maury Brown) I feel as though this is worth a repost.

I wouldn't let the "report" worry you. It's Jim Bowden and this is the "report": "But according to one major-league source briefed on the Padres’ plans, it’s more likely they hold him until next July and see where they are in the standings before deciding whether to move him." Who that "major league source" is, is kind of important. It very much sounds like "someone in San Diego" because...who else would be briefed on their plans? And don't the Padres, a team everyone believes has to cut a ton of payroll, need to regain leverage? This sounds exactly like what that is. Kevin Acee, who's the Padres best beat reporter thinks it's a good bet he's traded. I'll believe the Padres will trade him until they don't. We've been hearing this idea that they won't trade him for a week or so or that they'll cut payroll by trading other players like Jake Croenworth. As of now, I expect he will be moved.

I pretty much expect this path at 3b. The Cubs have "right now" depth in Madrigal/Wisdom and Mastrobuoni as a third place option. They also have Matt Shaw and BJ Murray in the system, both of whom could very well be ready by July 1st. Having both, you create some options if one struggles or gets hurt, as well. I think 3b is the one position I feel most certain the Cubs will "hold tight" on, as they wait for their upper level prospects to be ready to replace the "fine" they currently have.

As it pertains to Gibson, there's probably a lot of underrated value here. The ERA was gross, but he had a solid 4.13 xFIP, really strong ground ball numbers (which matters with the Cubs middle infield defense), maintained his velocity (and is a strong "extension" guy - so his 93mph fastball is actually faster than it looks on paper), and does a decent job on missing barrels. On a cheap, one year deal, Gibson is probably really nice as a #5. Great depth. With that said, I'd only want him as that. It could be the Cubs doing their due diligence, looking into Gibson, figuring out what he'd cost, doing work and etc. I'd be pretty mad if he was the "Marcus Stroman replacement". But there's a world where the Cubs move, say, Jordan Wicks in a big trade and they need a "right now" BORP on a cheaper one year contract to fit into the rotation. He'd be readily replacable if and when Horton is ready. Or Ben Brown. I'd be cool with Gibson in that role. So maybe it's looking into stuff like "what if we do X, how do we replace a quick/easy BORP? Let's line up some ducks"

I think that's very hopeful. The Cubs have had a lot of opportunity to get a look at Morel previously in the minors and basically, ignored him at the position last year. Morel's DR winter ball team isn't teeming with MLB talent in the infield; there are a lot of former MLB stars, but most of them are long since passed; Morel is probably their best player at multiple positions across the diamond considering he put up a 119 wRC+ in the MLB last year while guys like Luis Valenzuela, Starlin Castro and Jonathon Villar...didn't (those are players on his team). It also appears the Cubs had been working Morel at 1b last season, as well. "Morel took reps at first base throughout the season before games, in addition to his work at other spots around the diamond. But doing so consistently, along with game reps in a high-intensity setting, could allow him to grow into the role." Link to article from Marquee Much like with Matt Mervis, while I can't tell you exactly how the team feels, there are plenty of tea leaves to read that make it pretty likely that the Cubs don't trust Christopher Morel at 3b for whatever reason (just as though the team seems not very high on Matt Mervis). They've had opportunities, but it always seems to come back to "anything but". I don't mean to suggest they're all knowing or even correct, but I'm pretty confident when I take a step back that the Cubs just don't think Morel is an MLB option as a 3b. And as much as I wish they'd give Mervis more of chance, I think I just have to accept the Cubs aren't on team-Merv.

While accurate, as stated, I fully believe the Cubs have a significant power advantage in these relationships. It's not a practice league, the DR teams want to win, but I cannot imagine his DR team is looking around right now saying "Hey, you know what gives us the best chance to win right now? Playing Christopher Morel at a new position he's literally never played before!" In the same vein I think MLB teams would have a literal conniption if a DR team decided someone was their best catcher (who wasn't really a catcher) or over threw a pitcher, I think MLB teams have the ability to..."gently" inform a DR team that Christopher Morel is going to learn a new position this winter and it's on them to help. For example if it wasn't brought on by Hoyer, I believe his comments would have been "Despite Morel's DR team having him play some first base, we as a team still view him as..." Instead it was "we want to find him new opportunities". Hoyer's own words make it clear; this isn't random.

GM meetings will conclude early, as there is apparently a virus going around. Everyone is heading home today.

Signing for a hefty $1 million signing bonus in 2022 told you everything you needed to know about how the Cubs thought of Jefferson Rojas. Expectations for Rojas are soaring after his aggressive assignment and his line in 2023. What do we think of Jefferson Rojas here at North Side Baseball? 2023 Season Review At the outset of the 2023 year, Jefferson Rojas got his (predictable) assignment in the Arizona Complex League. As an 18-year-old with only 45 games in the Dominican Summer League, it would have been expected to have Rojas settle into Arizona for his first season and then head off to Myrtle Beach at age 19. Instead, after only three plate appearances in the Arizona Complex League proper, Jefferson Rojas was sent to Myrtle Beach in what is possibly the most aggressive assignment of any prospect in the entire system. Upon arriving at Myrtle Beach, all Jefferson did was hit, starting his low-A career with a 2-4 performance on June 7th and having five multi-hit games out of his first seven. End-capping his season, Rojas picked up three more hits. In between the impressive starts and finishes, Jefferson Rojas would finish the season with an impressive 115 wRC+, a sub-20 K%, and a walk rate of 7.5%. These would be fine numbers for anyone in Myrtle Beach, a veritable haven for pitching, but even more impressive for a player who was barely 18 when he arrived, Helping Rojas was his excellent swing mechanics for someone his age. He has control of his body that others don't have at that age. There is a feel for the barrel already there, which is also helped by a mature plate approach. He's capable of hitting pitches across the zone, both high and low, suggesting that as is, his swing has very few holes while also having quick action. While I'd love to spend the entirety of this article gushing on Rojas, it wouldn't be fair to him, as there are still a few places to polish up. First off, offensively, the power, while impressive for an 18-year-old, is a place to watch as we move forward. A .130 ISO is entirely forgivable for his age, promotion, and where he was hitting, but it's something the young player can look to improve. Seven home runs in 300 PAs isn't terrible, but for Rojas to reach his full potential, he probably needs to get a few more up and out as he matures. Secondly, while it appears fine, his defense doesn't scream plus yet. But these things can grow with age and maturity, so think of this less as a critique/complaint and more of just "he's 18 and imperfect as all 18-year-old prospects are". 2024 Season Outlook and ETA It's shocking, but Jefferson Rojas will almost certainly make his debut in South Bend before turning 19. For all of the talk about the aggressive nature of Owen Caissie and his promotions, Jefferson Rojas is making those promotions look like child's play. The nice thing is that the Cubs have the ability (due to organizational depth) to be aggressive with Rojas while patient at the same time. For example, Rojas should spend the entire season at South Bend regardless of the outcome and with no real reason to feel the need to rush him further. As we enter 2024, the name of the game is "growth" for Jefferson. Growing as a player, rounding out the corners, and improving. He'll be 19 and probably the youngest player in South Bend, so it's okay to expect some bumps. Watching how he adapts to his power and defense will be important. He'll also be 19, and we can likely expect a little growth still, as well. Listed at an out-of-date 5'10", 150 lbs, Rojas must mature into his body. The Cubs have a potential star here. 18-year-olds don't usually look this good right away. The Cubs identified this immediately in Arizona, and all Rojas did was succeed. If Jefferson has another successful season, expect his name to populate top-100 lists as soon as mid-season. View full article

I think it's important to point out: an extension should not change Juan Soto's trade value. The reason why is due to the nature of the MLB; there are no sign and trades. Juan Soto's trade value and his extension will be mutually exclusive. Any trade with SD will only acquire a single year of Juan Soto at $33m (or so). If the acquiring team then goes on to sign Soto to an extension, that will not involve San Diego in any way. Basically, whether or not someone extends Soto, his value in a trade remains static.

Where I'm most impressed with Caissie, and I'll expand on this more when we get to him on our top-prospect-lists (still working on that article currently), but it's with the improvement on K's. Southern League saw a ~3% strike out rate increase with that whiffleball of a pre-tacked baseball and saw it drop right off when it was gone. Caissie saw the same ~3% change; down to a pretty solid 27% rate himself. That's the goldilocks zone for him. If he can stay around 27%...he's going to be a great hitter.

If it were up to me, it would have been Caissie, not Ballesteros who won hitter of the year. Caissie has the profile of an elite power hitter. Also has improving defense in RF. Big, big fan.