Jason Ross

Per Rogers: Hendricks to IL. Smyly to IL. Little, Mervis, Wes up.

Jesse Rogers said it on ESPN 1000. "A slew" of roster moves. Nothing definitive yet from the Cubs.

Does not change this. That would open up a 40-man roster spot for someone, but wouldn't change the clock here as the player being transferred would already be on the IL. Now, if a current player goes from the 26-man directly to the 60-day, then yes, Luke Little or Hayden Wesneski would be eligible, but it has to be a 26-man roster player entering the IL for their clock to not matter.

I'm a bit surprised at the Cooper DFA. He seemed like a good compliment to Busch. But this could also mean the Cubs feel a little better about Busch against LHP than originally thought, too.

I assume it would mean two injuries. Little was sent down on April 17th. Based on my understanding of the rules, he should need 15 days in the MiLB since that day to be recalled unless the DH 27th-man thing resets that, but I doubt that.

Has to be in the MiLB for 15 days after his demotion unless an injury occurs.

Ah. horsefeathers. I figured that was Colton Brewer gone. Good catch.

Per Jesse Rogers: Luke Little coming back too.

I'll add this here too: Garrett Cooper is reportedly to have just left Wrigley. Whether an IL or DFA...your guess is as good as mine. Just rumors on twitter so far, but would make sense as to why Mervis is up.

Reports on twitter are that Garrett Cooper has just left Wrigley. Whether or not that's an IL or a DFA, your guess is as good as mine. EDIT: Confirmed. DFA'd.

I've always been fine moving Mervis for help elsewhere and I probably still think that's a fine way forward. First base is a hard position to really crack into being so bat heavy. The Cubs are also loaded on interesting prospects behind him and they'll need homes...the DH is one. With Busch looking like a real deal player Mervis remains expendable. With that said I'd love to see him crush it. He's got a cool story, going from two way college players, to UDFA (weird draft be damned), to bad first impression, to rocket ship, to bubble burst to return...I'm rooting for him to make me eat those words.

It's obvious BA reads my weekly recaps. /s

Matt Mervis had tons of helium coming into the 2023 season. After about 100 PAs and a somewhat sketchy return to Triple-A, his balloon seemed burst. Has there been any change in the 2024 version? Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports On Tuesday afternoon, the Cubs recalled first baseman Matt Mervis to Wrigley Field. Long rumored to be on the trade block (especially after the Michael Busch acquisition), the Cubs held onto the lefty masher throughout the offseason and are giving him his second shot at MLB relevance. I wrote earlier this offseason about Matt Mervis and how his changes in 2023 left a lot to be desired, but that was back in January. Have things changed for the man named "Mash"? It's no secret Mervis struggled once he was called up last season. Despite having a low-70s contact rate in Triple-A, the first baseman struggled to maintain that level of contact the rest of the season. In the majors, he made contact on just 66.7% of his swings, and after returning to Triple-A, saw his contact rate there dip below 70% as well. While we can expect high-slug hitters to have lower contact rates, these are bottom-of-the-barrel rates and are problematic. Mervis especially struggled with contact rates against left-handed pitching, posting a sub-60% contact rate against southpaws on the season, all levels combined. Looking at Mervis' 2024 season, there are mixed results when it comes to his contact rate. First, the bad: his contact rate thus far in Triple-A this year is 68%, which is nearly 4% lower than the Triple-A league average. His in-zone whiff percentage is also elevated, sitting at around 2% higher than the league average. Neither of these are moving in the right direction. You can see in the charts above that where he's missing has changed a bit: he's missing much more up, but much less in (more on this later). This shows where the whiff rates are up, and the zones are changing. Enough with the negativity; let's talk about the positives. The first and probably largest positive is that he's chasing way less. He has dropped his chase rate from 27% to 22%. That's huge. If you're only going to make contact with 68% of the pitches you swing at, you better make 'em count. He's also seen positive movement in his ability to hit lefties, going from someone who had that sub 60% contact rate up to 72% (it's only 25 PAs, so we're talking small sample size, but it's positive movement). Keeping the positive vibes up on Matt Mervis, we can see that his exit velocity and his contact type have improved. He's improved his average exit velocity from roughly 86mph to 93.8mph while reducing the amount of ground balls he's hit by 4%. He's also pulling the ball more, likely aiding the exit velocity jump. Perhaps even more encouraging is where he's making exit velocity gains. Below are three exit-velocity-heat maps—one from before his call-up in 2023, one after (Triple-A), and then today. What I think is important is to note the progression. Mervis has worked to expand the areas where he's making hard contact. Prior to his call-up, there was a very small area in which he was making strong contact. We can see that thus far, in 2024, that area has expanded. He's making much harder contact inside on his hands and up. What's interesting to see as well is that his plate approach has changed a bit. His swing rate remains similar, but his swing decisions seem to have changed. The charts above showcase how Matt Mervis has changed his swing decisions; he's making more and more of an effort to attack pitches a bit lower and covering a bit more of the plate. This likely resulted in better exit velocities across the board, which is why the charts are not so concentrated in the middle of the zone. This also seems to be having a positive effect on his barrel rate. This correlates with the miss rates; he's really punishing pitches inside this year like he hadn't before, possibly sacrificing hitting the high pitches a bit. So, what does it all boil down to? There has been a change in how Matt Mervis does things at the plate. He's making roughly the same amount of contact, but where he's making contact and, more importantly, where he's not chasing have changed. Thus far, this has resulted in more barrels, more pulls, harder-hit baseballs, and better plate coverage. It'd be easy to look just at the contact rate and say that maybe things haven't changed that much, but this seems like a better version of the first baseman. This fills me with confidence that things are changing for the better, and he'll have more success the second time around. With that said, I want to caution one thing: it's impossible to tell if this is a processing change or that Mervis has nearly 700 PAs at the Triple-A level under his belt, and he's just...comfortable. For Mash's sake, I'm glad he's getting another chance...he could have taken his demotion in a negative way, but I see a lot of positive changes under the hood. What do you expect from Matt Mervis this time around? Is this data encouraging? Or do you think he's just a Quadruple-A player? View full article

He's had some bad goes. With that said, he's running like a near .100 BABIP over this stretch and his contact/swing decisions aren't anywhere egregious, either. Hopefully he stays the course because there should be some regression to the mean.

I am! Give me...oh...an hour and there will be an article on the front page all about it! 😁

Ignore the xwOBA chart! It's apparently all jacked up at the Triple-A level right now.

Not Happ. Happ said he'll play tonight. So...maybe Morel and his finger? Or maybe Canario heads back to Iowa.

Believe Wesneski had to wait 15 days for a return unless it was an IL thing as well. So I'd assume this is Hendricks unless another, different SP dropped.

Here's a good sign for anyone who needs it on Mervis: His ability to do damage across the plate has been significantly better so far in 2024. He's also seeing increased EV in more places:

I'd bet this is Happ headed to the IL.

Is his command better, though? The 18.1 IP on Brown suggest that that is a very shifting landscape. We're only 18.1 IP, but so far, Ben Brown has a 65.5% strike% compared to league average of 63.7%. This is up over 5% than his strike% in Triple-A last year, a marked improvement. In all appearances so far in 2024, Wesneski has a strike% of 63.5%. Last year, Wesneski threw 62.3% of his pitches for strikes. Wesneski in 2022 threw 65.5% of his pitches for strikes which is conveniently exactly where Brown is in 2024. Brown has to maintain the improved strike throwing, but it doesn't seem so cut and dry that Wesneski is better command wise when I take all of the data into account. It's not just throwing strikes, but looking at their zone command, I think it's pretty close, too. Brown's doing well in terms of where to attack, and I think Wesneski, in 2024, looks much more like 2022 in terms of zone command. With that said, we're a year removed from pretty rough in-zone fastball command from Hayden. Generally speaking, I think we're in a "wait and see" holding pattern on the command between the two of them more so than anything definitive. You can choose to see that differently, but I just don't see much in the current data set that I see to be anywhere else than "wait and see". This could all change if Brown regresses back to 2024 Triple-A levels of wild, but right now, there's an upward trend on his command and I think that's quite the important data point for a young pitcher. Regardless, you seem to have your mind set on this and differences of opinions is the flavor of life. With that said, I'll leave this as my last thoughts on the situation: when the Chicago Cubs had the opportunity to chose between Brown and Wesneski this year, they've chosen the former, themselves. In the end, I think it's fair to like one over the other, but I also don't agree with the idea that Brown's upside has been overblown. He's a unique arm with unicorn type qualities in terms of breaking ball and how it meshes with the fastball. That constitutes excitement on the upside, and many of very smart people have said as such. I think in the end I see both in the bullpen long-term, and why I rate Brown higher in ceiling is the stuff is just...better. Paired with a "wait and see" on how both continue along their path of strike throwing and zone-command as well. Wesneski is likely to have a more durable career, and in the end, might be more valuable, but I think the ceiling of Ben Brown has been appropriately rated. He's far more risk and reward. I'm excited both are having successful 2024's so far, hope Brown's strike% increase is a sign of things to come, and hope that Wesneski forces the issue to join the Cubs in a more permanent role later this summer as well; both should be weapons. If we're having this level of discussion about arms...it only means good things for the organization.

I'm not sure that's true. Here is where Brown throws his curveball vs his fastball: Brown is working upper third a ton with that fastball while using the curveball as a chase/whiff pitch. As Matt Trueblood explained the other say, based on the tilt and the way he tunnels, this is an effective two pitch combination. Nothing I see equates to chucking it down the middle. For example, compare Brown's fastball usage to Shota Imanaga, who as well, is working upper third and you'll see, there's a lot of overlap. You can say Shota's shown better command and consistency, and that's probably right, but I think the point I'm making is that Brown isn't just mid-midding his fastball and there's a similar plan of attack : It's fair to wonder about injury with Brown, but I don't think that takes away from his ceiling. When we're talking ceiling we're talking generally the types of best-case outcomes. Ceiling wise, Brown doesn't blow out his arm again, or if he does, it's like 6-7 years in the making. That feels more like a floor argument, or "realistic" argument, if we want to move even into that territory. Brown does have some concerning things that make you think his elbow is far more likely to blow out than Wesneski. And as much as we want to say Wesneski is a pitch away from something, he was a pitch away last year and there doesn't appear to be anything moving there. He didn't develop one last year, and so far on the year he's thrown 12 changeups on the season in all appearances (and just two in his MLB appearance) and zero split fingers. It doesn't look like that is coming anytime soon. If we're being real, Brown's made more progress seemingly with the command than Wesneski has with the third viable pitch to get lefties. Should also be noted: both struggle with command. Wesneski completely lost the fastball command at times last year in the zone and gave up big contact. His fastball gave up an xwOBA of .423 and an actual wOBA of .423 as well. So it's not like Wesneski is the command champion. His consistency was a knock on him dating back to his time in the Yankees system. As it stands, Brown's stuff advantage (fastball velocity, the way it plays off the curve and the curveball in general) gives him a ceiling advantage in almost any role. The math could change with a third pitch from Wesneski or a drop in command from Brown,. As well, I think it's super fair to be injury concious, I just wouldn't factor that into ceiling which was the wording of the original hot take. Lastly, none of this should read I don't like Hayden; I actually quite like Wesneski. Nor should it read that Wesneski can't have the better career. But if we're talking which player has the best ceiling...it has to be Brown. Even if it's more unlikely he reaches his ceiling for many of the things you pointed out.

Too hot of a take right now. Wesneski has severe limitations against LHH that Brown doesn't seem to have based on pitch mix as it stands *today*. Brown has a better breaking ball (his curveball) and would project better as a SP as a ceiling and a leverage reliever. Brown does have some command/control questions (not suggesting he's a finished product here) he needs to continue to answer, but has thus far done that in 2024 at the MLB level. Brown's command/control has made more progress than Wesneski in developing a new pitch, so while we can't say he won't, Brown's been making more progress. I don't want anyone to read this like I don't like Wesneski, or even that Brown will be the better option long term, but I think if we're talking ceiling one has a clear advantage over the other. In a perfect world the Cubs get useful MLB contributions from both. But I think Wesneski looks more like a multi-inning reliever/RHH neutralizer where as Brown could legitimately be an 8th/9th inning guy if he doesn't end up as a mid-rotation SP. Perhaps Brown's command/control limits him from the rotation, or he can't ever settle in as a leverage guy, but Brown's ability to likely get both handed hitters out more consistently than Wesneski is going to always give him a leg up in potential.

Finally. He's been a disappointment dating back to last year. Especially coming out of the draft, this felt like a pick the Cubs were kind of high on and it felt like they thought they had a steal on hand. Need more than a week, but it'd be nice to get him going and start to see the promise.