Jason Ross

I've always been fine moving Mervis for help elsewhere and I probably still think that's a fine way forward. First base is a hard position to really crack into being so bat heavy. The Cubs are also loaded on interesting prospects behind him and they'll need homes...the DH is one. With Busch looking like a real deal player Mervis remains expendable. With that said I'd love to see him crush it. He's got a cool story, going from two way college players, to UDFA (weird draft be damned), to bad first impression, to rocket ship, to bubble burst to return...I'm rooting for him to make me eat those words.

It's obvious BA reads my weekly recaps. /s

Matt Mervis had tons of helium coming into the 2023 season. After about 100 PAs and a somewhat sketchy return to Triple-A, his balloon seemed burst. Has there been any change in the 2024 version? Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports On Tuesday afternoon, the Cubs recalled first baseman Matt Mervis to Wrigley Field. Long rumored to be on the trade block (especially after the Michael Busch acquisition), the Cubs held onto the lefty masher throughout the offseason and are giving him his second shot at MLB relevance. I wrote earlier this offseason about Matt Mervis and how his changes in 2023 left a lot to be desired, but that was back in January. Have things changed for the man named "Mash"? It's no secret Mervis struggled once he was called up last season. Despite having a low-70s contact rate in Triple-A, the first baseman struggled to maintain that level of contact the rest of the season. In the majors, he made contact on just 66.7% of his swings, and after returning to Triple-A, saw his contact rate there dip below 70% as well. While we can expect high-slug hitters to have lower contact rates, these are bottom-of-the-barrel rates and are problematic. Mervis especially struggled with contact rates against left-handed pitching, posting a sub-60% contact rate against southpaws on the season, all levels combined. Looking at Mervis' 2024 season, there are mixed results when it comes to his contact rate. First, the bad: his contact rate thus far in Triple-A this year is 68%, which is nearly 4% lower than the Triple-A league average. His in-zone whiff percentage is also elevated, sitting at around 2% higher than the league average. Neither of these are moving in the right direction. You can see in the charts above that where he's missing has changed a bit: he's missing much more up, but much less in (more on this later). This shows where the whiff rates are up, and the zones are changing. Enough with the negativity; let's talk about the positives. The first and probably largest positive is that he's chasing way less. He has dropped his chase rate from 27% to 22%. That's huge. If you're only going to make contact with 68% of the pitches you swing at, you better make 'em count. He's also seen positive movement in his ability to hit lefties, going from someone who had that sub 60% contact rate up to 72% (it's only 25 PAs, so we're talking small sample size, but it's positive movement). Keeping the positive vibes up on Matt Mervis, we can see that his exit velocity and his contact type have improved. He's improved his average exit velocity from roughly 86mph to 93.8mph while reducing the amount of ground balls he's hit by 4%. He's also pulling the ball more, likely aiding the exit velocity jump. Perhaps even more encouraging is where he's making exit velocity gains. Below are three exit-velocity-heat maps—one from before his call-up in 2023, one after (Triple-A), and then today. What I think is important is to note the progression. Mervis has worked to expand the areas where he's making hard contact. Prior to his call-up, there was a very small area in which he was making strong contact. We can see that thus far, in 2024, that area has expanded. He's making much harder contact inside on his hands and up. What's interesting to see as well is that his plate approach has changed a bit. His swing rate remains similar, but his swing decisions seem to have changed. The charts above showcase how Matt Mervis has changed his swing decisions; he's making more and more of an effort to attack pitches a bit lower and covering a bit more of the plate. This likely resulted in better exit velocities across the board, which is why the charts are not so concentrated in the middle of the zone. This also seems to be having a positive effect on his barrel rate. This correlates with the miss rates; he's really punishing pitches inside this year like he hadn't before, possibly sacrificing hitting the high pitches a bit. So, what does it all boil down to? There has been a change in how Matt Mervis does things at the plate. He's making roughly the same amount of contact, but where he's making contact and, more importantly, where he's not chasing have changed. Thus far, this has resulted in more barrels, more pulls, harder-hit baseballs, and better plate coverage. It'd be easy to look just at the contact rate and say that maybe things haven't changed that much, but this seems like a better version of the first baseman. This fills me with confidence that things are changing for the better, and he'll have more success the second time around. With that said, I want to caution one thing: it's impossible to tell if this is a processing change or that Mervis has nearly 700 PAs at the Triple-A level under his belt, and he's just...comfortable. For Mash's sake, I'm glad he's getting another chance...he could have taken his demotion in a negative way, but I see a lot of positive changes under the hood. What do you expect from Matt Mervis this time around? Is this data encouraging? Or do you think he's just a Quadruple-A player? View full article

He's had some bad goes. With that said, he's running like a near .100 BABIP over this stretch and his contact/swing decisions aren't anywhere egregious, either. Hopefully he stays the course because there should be some regression to the mean.

I am! Give me...oh...an hour and there will be an article on the front page all about it! 😁

Ignore the xwOBA chart! It's apparently all jacked up at the Triple-A level right now.

Not Happ. Happ said he'll play tonight. So...maybe Morel and his finger? Or maybe Canario heads back to Iowa.

Believe Wesneski had to wait 15 days for a return unless it was an IL thing as well. So I'd assume this is Hendricks unless another, different SP dropped.

Here's a good sign for anyone who needs it on Mervis: His ability to do damage across the plate has been significantly better so far in 2024. He's also seeing increased EV in more places:

I'd bet this is Happ headed to the IL.

Is his command better, though? The 18.1 IP on Brown suggest that that is a very shifting landscape. We're only 18.1 IP, but so far, Ben Brown has a 65.5% strike% compared to league average of 63.7%. This is up over 5% than his strike% in Triple-A last year, a marked improvement. In all appearances so far in 2024, Wesneski has a strike% of 63.5%. Last year, Wesneski threw 62.3% of his pitches for strikes. Wesneski in 2022 threw 65.5% of his pitches for strikes which is conveniently exactly where Brown is in 2024. Brown has to maintain the improved strike throwing, but it doesn't seem so cut and dry that Wesneski is better command wise when I take all of the data into account. It's not just throwing strikes, but looking at their zone command, I think it's pretty close, too. Brown's doing well in terms of where to attack, and I think Wesneski, in 2024, looks much more like 2022 in terms of zone command. With that said, we're a year removed from pretty rough in-zone fastball command from Hayden. Generally speaking, I think we're in a "wait and see" holding pattern on the command between the two of them more so than anything definitive. You can choose to see that differently, but I just don't see much in the current data set that I see to be anywhere else than "wait and see". This could all change if Brown regresses back to 2024 Triple-A levels of wild, but right now, there's an upward trend on his command and I think that's quite the important data point for a young pitcher. Regardless, you seem to have your mind set on this and differences of opinions is the flavor of life. With that said, I'll leave this as my last thoughts on the situation: when the Chicago Cubs had the opportunity to chose between Brown and Wesneski this year, they've chosen the former, themselves. In the end, I think it's fair to like one over the other, but I also don't agree with the idea that Brown's upside has been overblown. He's a unique arm with unicorn type qualities in terms of breaking ball and how it meshes with the fastball. That constitutes excitement on the upside, and many of very smart people have said as such. I think in the end I see both in the bullpen long-term, and why I rate Brown higher in ceiling is the stuff is just...better. Paired with a "wait and see" on how both continue along their path of strike throwing and zone-command as well. Wesneski is likely to have a more durable career, and in the end, might be more valuable, but I think the ceiling of Ben Brown has been appropriately rated. He's far more risk and reward. I'm excited both are having successful 2024's so far, hope Brown's strike% increase is a sign of things to come, and hope that Wesneski forces the issue to join the Cubs in a more permanent role later this summer as well; both should be weapons. If we're having this level of discussion about arms...it only means good things for the organization.

I'm not sure that's true. Here is where Brown throws his curveball vs his fastball: Brown is working upper third a ton with that fastball while using the curveball as a chase/whiff pitch. As Matt Trueblood explained the other say, based on the tilt and the way he tunnels, this is an effective two pitch combination. Nothing I see equates to chucking it down the middle. For example, compare Brown's fastball usage to Shota Imanaga, who as well, is working upper third and you'll see, there's a lot of overlap. You can say Shota's shown better command and consistency, and that's probably right, but I think the point I'm making is that Brown isn't just mid-midding his fastball and there's a similar plan of attack : It's fair to wonder about injury with Brown, but I don't think that takes away from his ceiling. When we're talking ceiling we're talking generally the types of best-case outcomes. Ceiling wise, Brown doesn't blow out his arm again, or if he does, it's like 6-7 years in the making. That feels more like a floor argument, or "realistic" argument, if we want to move even into that territory. Brown does have some concerning things that make you think his elbow is far more likely to blow out than Wesneski. And as much as we want to say Wesneski is a pitch away from something, he was a pitch away last year and there doesn't appear to be anything moving there. He didn't develop one last year, and so far on the year he's thrown 12 changeups on the season in all appearances (and just two in his MLB appearance) and zero split fingers. It doesn't look like that is coming anytime soon. If we're being real, Brown's made more progress seemingly with the command than Wesneski has with the third viable pitch to get lefties. Should also be noted: both struggle with command. Wesneski completely lost the fastball command at times last year in the zone and gave up big contact. His fastball gave up an xwOBA of .423 and an actual wOBA of .423 as well. So it's not like Wesneski is the command champion. His consistency was a knock on him dating back to his time in the Yankees system. As it stands, Brown's stuff advantage (fastball velocity, the way it plays off the curve and the curveball in general) gives him a ceiling advantage in almost any role. The math could change with a third pitch from Wesneski or a drop in command from Brown,. As well, I think it's super fair to be injury concious, I just wouldn't factor that into ceiling which was the wording of the original hot take. Lastly, none of this should read I don't like Hayden; I actually quite like Wesneski. Nor should it read that Wesneski can't have the better career. But if we're talking which player has the best ceiling...it has to be Brown. Even if it's more unlikely he reaches his ceiling for many of the things you pointed out.

Too hot of a take right now. Wesneski has severe limitations against LHH that Brown doesn't seem to have based on pitch mix as it stands *today*. Brown has a better breaking ball (his curveball) and would project better as a SP as a ceiling and a leverage reliever. Brown does have some command/control questions (not suggesting he's a finished product here) he needs to continue to answer, but has thus far done that in 2024 at the MLB level. Brown's command/control has made more progress than Wesneski in developing a new pitch, so while we can't say he won't, Brown's been making more progress. I don't want anyone to read this like I don't like Wesneski, or even that Brown will be the better option long term, but I think if we're talking ceiling one has a clear advantage over the other. In a perfect world the Cubs get useful MLB contributions from both. But I think Wesneski looks more like a multi-inning reliever/RHH neutralizer where as Brown could legitimately be an 8th/9th inning guy if he doesn't end up as a mid-rotation SP. Perhaps Brown's command/control limits him from the rotation, or he can't ever settle in as a leverage guy, but Brown's ability to likely get both handed hitters out more consistently than Wesneski is going to always give him a leg up in potential.

Finally. He's been a disappointment dating back to last year. Especially coming out of the draft, this felt like a pick the Cubs were kind of high on and it felt like they thought they had a steal on hand. Need more than a week, but it'd be nice to get him going and start to see the promise.

Trice is also a 21 year old who played in the ACC. Look, I'm not writing him off in any way shape or form, we're talking April 22nd. But he has a K% touching 42% right now in Myrtle Beach. That's just a brutal run of games for him, ballpark be damned, because that's on him more so than a ballpark or the weather at this level. So far in just complex league and Low-A he's got a total of 34 K's in roughly 100 PAs. Gotta' call a spade a spade here; rough start for him. The .130 ISO isn't the worst thing, ballpark included, but when you couple it wit the K%...you kind of need to hit for power if you're going to strike out like that. 4 XBH in half a month so far probably isn't enough. Good news: He's got under 100 PA's professional! Last week, Kevin Alcantara had 0 hits. Now he has 10, and a wRC+ of 95 because of like, six good game. Carter just needs to make contact for like, a good 10 stretch of games and we can all put the strike out issues behind us. It'd make the .130 ISO better, too. More contact will probably result in more power as well! A good reminder: cold update doesn't mean I think he sucks...it just means he had a week that wasn't good. Sadly, Trice just hasn't had it yet. I'm still super rooting for him, his bat could be interesting at a position that doesn't usually hit well.

A handful of injuries on the Chicago Cubs have seen a few prospects graduate to the major-league team. With Michael Busch, Alexander Canario and Ben Brown all having success at the MLB level, who had a good week down on the farm? Image courtesy of © Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK The Cubs have been cultivating their farm system over the last handful of years, and it's a good thing. As injuries to important players (such as Seiya Suzuki, Justin Steele, Ian Happ, Julian Merryweather, and Jameson Taillon) pile up, the MLB side of things has gotten a chance to see the future. As the summer goes on, we're likely to see more and more of the young guns make their way up. How did this week on the farm go for those with bright futures? Iowa Cubs (4-2) The Iowa Cubs have been the biggest contributor to the MLB injury woes, but that doesn't seem to be slowing them down, as they took four of six this weekend against the Louisville Bats. Their only blemishes came in a doubleheader sweep. Iowa heads out onto the road to Buffalo over the next week, and hopefully, the weather will play nice. 🔥BJ Murray: 233 wRC+, 16 K%, 28 BB%, 1 2b., 1 HR: Good to see Murray finally start getting hot after a bit of a tough start at the Triple-A level. The switch-hitter turned it on this week, walking more than he struck out and launching a home run as well. This bodes well for the former Florida Atlantic Owl, as the Cubs are seeing the benefits of having a deep farm right now. Murray could be in line for a call-up later this summer, so getting acclimated in Triple-A will be a big step forward for him. 🔥Porter Hodge: 4 IP, 37.5 K%, 6.3 BB%, 2 R, 2 ER: Hodge is looking like the next to be called up for an audition in the Cubs bullpen. I highlighted Hodge earlier this offseason as someone with the kind of stuff to make an MLB Impact, and with his increased strike-throwing prowess this season, Hodge looks to be fulfilling that promise. The Cubs bullpen has been depleted by injuries, and Hodge (being on the 40-man roster already) could be in Chicago sooner than you realize. 🔥Owen Caissie: 156 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 14.8 BB%, 2 2b, 1 3b, 1 HR: The slugging outfielder had a nice week, cutting down on the strikeouts and hitting four extra-base hits. Pitchers have essentially given him the Barry Bonds treatment, refusing to throw him strikes. Caissie, perhaps keen on this, seemed to punish pitchers. Caissie is looking more and more like he could get an MLB call-up sooner than even I thought he would; it wouldn't be shocking to see him in Wrigley before the trade deadline. 🥶Pete Crow-Armstrong: 65 wRC+, 25 K%, 3.6 BB%, 1 HR, 3 2b: The power output of four extra-base hits here feels good and signals that perhaps the centerfielder is beginning to settle in. The wRC+ is low, but so is the .222 BABIP this week. PCA is starting to look a little less like he's swinging wildly and a little more composed. With injuries to the Cubs outfield (a recurring theme right now), a heater from the left-handed swinging PCA could see him take an injury spot if Ian Happ misses significant time. Tennessee Smokies (4-2) The Smokies have become must-watch baseball--at least for the next few weeks, before a few of these names get promoted. Winning four of six against the Montgomery Biscuits this week, the Smokies make their way down to Rocket City for a six-game set. The Smokies took two of three from Rocket City to open up the season, so hopefully the good times will continue to roll. 🔥Cade Horton: 8 IP, 28.,6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 1 R, 1 ER: A two-start week for the right-hander saw Horton once again dominate Double-A hitters. The home run given up by Horton was only the second earned run he'd surrendered all season. Horton once again struck out a batter per inning while limiting walks. He's probably on a path to Iowa shortly. Maybe two more Double-A starts? 🔥Kevin Alcantara: 299 wRC+, 13.6 K%, 4.5 BB%, 1 2b, 2 HR: Alcántara entered the week hitless on the season; he exited the week with 10 knocks. The Jaguar got back on track in a huge way and raised his season wRC+ to 95. Alcántara has the kind of stuff to go on a heater and go on one quick. Impressive way to get off the ropes; let's hope this kind of hitting continues. 🥶Matt Shaw: 89 wRC+, 20 K%, 20 BB%: This is what a "bad" week for Matt Shaw looks like at the Double-A level right now: a roughly 90 wRC+ where he walks as much as he strikes out and has a BABIP in the .260s. For most, that's not enough to get a "cold" sticker, but for Shaw, who's abused Double-A pitching to this point, it qualifies. I expect he'll go bonkers again shortly. 🥶Brandon Birdsell: 3.1 IP, 9.5 K%, 14.3 BB%, 9 R, 5 ER: A second bad start of the year for Birdsell. Believed to be on a fast track to Iowa, it looks like he's going to have to continue to do some work at Tennessee right now. Walking more than striking out is usually a recipe for disaster. Hopefully, after a few rocky starts, the right-hander settles in; Iowa could use some depth in the rotation. South Bend Cubs (2-5) Yeesh. This was just a bad week all around for South Bend, punctuated with a 19-4 drubbing on April 17th. Hopefully, the tide begins to turn for the 4-11 South Bend Cubs, as they head home to face Quad Cities this week. 🔥Jefferson Rojas: 127 wRC+, 12.5 K%, 4.2 BB%, 2 2b: Regardless of the affiliate's record right now, not an ounce of blame can be placed on Rojas's bat. He did make another error this week, but he's been 38% better than league average and he's still not even 19 years old. While Rojas may eventually have to slide to third base, the Cubs may have their next star prospect. 🔥Rafael Morel: 187 wRC+, 25 K% 12.5 BB%, 1 2b: Morel only played three times this week, but did some damage. The center fielder is showing little power, but a lot of bat-to-ball skills. The hope is that the power will come, but he's done well on the season so far. Being that he's 22, it wouldn't be shocking to see him in Tennessee at some point if things keep going well. 🥶Will Sanders: 1.2 IP, 18.2 K%, 18.2 BB%, 6 R, 6 ER: The 2023 mid-round draft selection has struggled through his first two professional starts. It was Sanders who started the 15-run loss, and he couldn't make it out of the second. The entire loss wasn't on him, but you're going to land on this list when you're the beginning of that kind of game. Hopefully, the former Gamecock begins to settle in and find his groove; he had some pre-season hype last year as a back-end first or second-round selection, and seeing that upside from him again would be great. 🥶Ed Howard: 6 wRC+, 25 K%, 25 BB%: I don't think we're ever going to get to see what the former 2020 first-round pick once had to offer, sadly. A devastating hip injury seems to have sapped any explosiveness left in the Chicagoland native's game. I know he'll get the label of a "bust," but I just don't think he ever got a fair shake. He was aggressively promoted after a year with, essentially, no competitive baseball, was then subsequently injured, and has never looked right. I hope in a week or two I look back at this and feel stupid (lookin' at you, Keegan Thompson) but it doesn't feel like there's much left in the tank here. Myrtle Beach Pelicans (2-3) Another rain-shortened week for the Pelicans, who managed to win two of five this weekend against the visiting Kannapolis Cannon Ballers. With a handful of interesting players off to good starts in extended spring training (Alfonsin Rosario, for example) and with Derniche Valdez off the restricted list, the Myrtle Beach Pelicans will likely get reinforcements over the next month or so. Myrtle Beach has yet to take a series, and will look to do so as they visit Lynchburg starting on Tuesday. 🔥Christopher Paciolla: 131 wRC+. 26.1 K%, 17.4 BB%, 2 2b: A much better week for Paciolla, and hopefully a sign of good things to come. With more walks and some doubles, the hope here is that the infielder finds his stride. The Cubs were reportedly pretty high on his potential coming into the 2022 Draft, so it'd be nice for him and the Pelicans if he can get going. 🤷‍♂️Luis Rujano: 2.1 IP, 50 K%, 10 BB%, 2 R, 2 ER: Fresh off the developmental list, Rujano showed solid control/command, but he he did get hit a bit. We can chalk this up as a tune-up, and hopefully, the 2022 pick will breeze through his next few appearances. There's a real breakout possibility with Rujano, so it'll be an interesting to follow. 🥶Mason McGwire: .2 IP, 20 K%, 60 BB%, 0 R, 0 ER: The son of the great Mark McGwire did not make it out of the first this week. While he did not give up any runs, walking three and hitting your pitch limit (the Cubs generally employ a ~30-pitch maximum per inning) before the end of the first is not a good look. Hopefully, the control comes back for him next game. 🥶Carter Trice: 19 wRC+. 41.2 K%, 17.6% BB%: Trice just hasn't started the 2024 season well. With inflated K% and a lack of power so far, the catcher for whom some had high hopes has generally underperformed so far. The good news is that the season is quite young, and all he needs is a single week like Kevin Alcántara's to start turning this around. (Is that all?) Did I forget someone on this list? Who do you think had a good week down on the farm? Let me know in the comments below! View full article

The one caveat I'll add to the HR aspect for Hendricks: while he's not giving up a ton of barrels his xHR on the season is 7.4 and he's given up 8 home runs. To put that in perspective, that's the worst number of any pitcher in the league currently. So while I think the barrel-per-home-runs are low, the xHR and the actual home run data is within a rounding error of each other currently. The xData suggests that while he's been a tad unlucky, he's generally getting beat by the home run within reason. None of this is to ignore the other data only that I think we're in such small sample size territory on Hendricks that the amount of bad luck you find within his data is about the amount of bad luck you want to find. You can point to different numbers to suggest both right now. Ultimately, I agree with the overall point that many have suggested that we're kind of on "last chance" for Hendricks for a while. The lack of whiffs is concerning, the statcast data is concerning, the ERA is concerning...I can't find much to point to for hope for improvement unless the control takes a leap forward, and quickly. I want him to succeed, I just don't know if he's capable of it any more.

Good news is the offense can still score runs. Lots of game. Good runs.

I think we are getting there, yes. His stuff just isn't good enough for anything less than "very good" command. He's a hittable pitcher when he's not hitting his spots because his stuff just doesn't have the oomph. I appreciate a lot of the contact he's giving up isn't hard contact. But when you give up the amount of contact and the lack of stuff he has...we are probably wading into a territory where there's less bad luck at play here and more "this is what happens" when Hendricks is even spotty in his command. Even when it's not hard hit, there's more control coming from hitters due to the lack of stuff/velo what have you.

He has, he homered off a soft tossing lefty this week in Arizona. But the Cubs have plenty of guys who can hit RHP and a DH. He's going to play *some* against LHP, but Counsell is big in platoon and playing matchups. Expect this kind of thing all year. Which is fine.

Back to back great plays!

Good job taking an early lead. Alright.

Canario has produced, but I think the issue here is the how he's produced. He's done so in a way that suggests producing right now at the MLB level is not overly likely. Consider this: the Cubs were pretty aggressive in pursuing Michael Busch. They traded two draft picks they thought of quite highly (based on slot and strategy) and who the industry thought highly of to acquire a first baseman who struggled in his first run at the MLB level. He struggled in his first run in Triple-A, too, in 2022. But the processes where there. Canario's production comes from an area of questionable process. On the same vein, I think people are kind of missing the forest through the trees on Nelson. Nelson Velazquez has a 130+ wRC+ this year, but he's done so with a .417 BABIP and a 1% contact rate. His contact rate is 58.6%. I don't think what he's doing is very repeatable. He looks a lot like...Patrick Wisdom, in fact. Someone who hits the ball super hard, but doesn't hit it very often. I think Velazquez belongs on an MLB roster and I think Wisdom has use on an MLB roster. Much like I think Canario can have use. But like Nelly, I think Canario's outlook mirrors the Wisdom route. And if the Cubs trade a Wisdom-type before finding that out...so be it. To the last point, I like to be risk-aggressive myself. I was pro-Horton in the draft, I'm pro-Horton coming up as soon as possible as examples. But I think there's risk-aggressive and risk for risk's sake. And right now, Canario feels a bit more of risk for risks' sake. The upside on Canario is probably Wisdom. So playing the OG...well...I can't find much to quibble with. I also wouldn't mind if the Cubs played Canario. And I don't mean to pick you out; I promise you I'm not. You're just making coherent, cogent arguments and it's an easy place to put my thoughts.