Jason Ross

The 2022 season saw two Cubs pitchers who had struggled with health and consistency break out: Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson. Armed with new pitches, better stuff and renewed health, both looked like they could play big roles in the Cubs' pitching future. One of those arms became a Cy Young contender; the other has fizzled out. What's wrong with Keegan Thompson? Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports It wasn't long ago that Keegan Thomson was considered a key part of the Cubs pitching staff. Once a third-round selection out of Auburn, by the summer of 2022, the right-handed pitcher was poised to be a part of the Cubs' long-term future. Thompson was at the forefront of the sweeper revolution; showcasing a slider with far more horizontal than vertical action, and the results began to show it was quite a useful pitch, especially against right-handed batters. The sweeper saw opponents hit just .158 and limited them to a .258 xwOBA. While he did not feature it prominently in 2022, the pitch began to look like a weapon. With a pitch like that, coupled with a cutter-fastball combination, you'd expect that Thompson would remain a viable arm out of the bullpen, at the very least. Yet, less two years later, the 29-year-old looks likely to be a 40-man casualty at some point soon. Entering the 2023 season, Thompson was positioned well to be a multi-inning, high-leverage arm. As a reliever in the prior season, the right-hander had an impressive 30% strikeout rate, to go along with an opponent batting average of .156 and an xFIP of 3.30. Needless to say, these are pretty darn good numbers and someone you would expect to be a weapon in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings of tight baseball games. Despite this, the year did not go well for Thompson. Experiencing a 10% decline in strikeouts, a 5% rise in walk rate, and a 5.44 xFIP, Thompson was sent back to Triple-A. Figuring out where things went wrong is a bit difficult, on the surface. Between '22 and '23, Thompson saw an increase in things such as first strike% and whiff%, as well as a decline in throwing meatballs. These things shouldn't signal a collapse in strikeout or walk rate. More strikes are good, more whiffs are good, fewer meatballs are good. Where the issues began were with the spin, tilt and stuff Thompson had been throwing. Below are the spin and tilt charts from Thompson's 2022 (left) and 2023 (right). Notice how the cutter has shifted. As well, notice the purple (changeup) being almost eliminated from the scatter plot. There was far less overlap of cutter/fastball. One of the biggest issues, as well, is that Thompson's release point got lost from the two seasons. Again, the chart on the left is 2022, and the right, 2023. Notice how in 2022 the release points were all very concentrated. This likely allowed Thompson to hide his pitches more. While on the right, there is a clear gap. If we zoom in further to the 2023 side, you'll notice that the cutter and the fastball seem to be the biggest culprits here. A lack of consistency with a release point could lead to higher walk rates (5% increase) a decline in strike-out rate (10% decline) and hitters hitting better because you're tipping pitches (a massive increase in xFIP). Keegan Thompson would be sent to Triple-A after just 30 innings with the Cubs in 2023 to work on himself and get himself right. Sadly, the results were not positive. A further decline in strikeout and walk rates would occur in Iowa, while seeing his xFIP at the level balloon to over 5.00. The culprit? Continued inconsistencies at the point of pitch release. As the right-hander entered the winter, it looked as though he would likely have to start the season in Iowa again to show improved consistency. For Thompson, a slight lifeline came in the form of the Tampa Bay Rays, as reports were that the Rays were interested in Thompson as a potential piece of the return for starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow. These hopes would be dashed, as the Dodgers acquired the former Ray in a trade later in December, and Thompson would remain with the Cubs. Thus far in 2024, Thompson has fallen further away from the pitcher he once was. With a decline in fastball velocity of 2 miles per hour, Thompson's overall numbers are not looking great. Granted, much of this has to do with his initial outing, in which he surrendered three runs total and one homer, while striking out one in his first inning. He still doesn't appear to be "right" with the decline in stuff. He's barely thrown the sweeper this season in four outings and hasn't thrown a fastball over 94 mph. His Barrel% is over 24%, and the launch angle against him is in the 20s as well. Despite the lack of runs in his last few efforts, guys are hitting him. I don't like writing this eulogy. Keegan Thompson looked, in 2022, like a great story and an early pitch-lab success for a team that had been starved for a homegrown win. Instead, Thompson has struggled with mechanical consistency and a drop in velocity. If there's a silver lining, it's that in the past, the stuff has been good enough to play up, and the Cubs have squeezed juice out of arms. However, if he's going to be giving up this kind of hard contact and with a velocity drop, there doesn't seem to be a lot of time left for Thompson. The Cubs will need some relievers on the main roster, and they'll have to eventually find 40-man slots for guys like Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, and Cade Horton who could all be up later. After we learned Thursday that José Cuas will be optioned to Iowa, there's speculation that Thompson will come up in his stead. Based on what we've seen from him this spring, that doesn't seem likely to solve as many problems as it creates. Unless Thompson turns something around sooner rather than later, he's very unlikely to contribute positively to the bullpen. He might be called up, but it could be just to act as an innings sponge sometime this weekend, with a DFA waiting on the other side so that the team can turn to a reliever with more upside left. View full article

Yeah, McWilliams right now is clearly a stuff-pop-up guy. There are at least a few small positives on the HR front here here: his xHR is actually 3, so he's had a bit of bad luck there. He's also getting over 20% in zone swing and miss (above Triple-A average) and a 37.9% chase rate (way over Triple-A average), and he's not showing signs of being a walk machine. My hope here is that McWilliams has improved/worked on some of his pitches and mechanically, he's working through commanding that kind of stuff that he just hasn't had in his arsenal before as well as working through being a professional pitcher once again. Lottery ticket for sure, but probably worth a monitor. As rough as our BP has been and injuries...McWilliams popping up as a RHP option in the bullpen in June or July doesn't sound super shocking.

Well, I think we have to remember that we have a handful of injuries right now, and it's early in the season when it comes to MiLB players. With Merryweather on the IL. Asad in the rotation, Brown in the rotation...we are on our 4th best replacement BP arm. Before guys like Horton and Arias could realistically be MLB options. I do think you're under selling someone like Hodge though. In 2022 Hodge had a 3.44 xFIP at High-A as a 21 year old. Was borderline pitcher of the year in the minors. Last year he was moved to the pen to fix command and it never got better. This year he's 23 and throwing a lot more strikes. It's early but he's looking like a useful talent. I'm not sure I'd go to him yet...but I wasn't sure I'd go to Brown either.

Thompson would be among the top of my DFA candidates right now. I don't think they will. I'd guess either: 1. Merriweather is 60-IL'd and Edwards/Pannone/McWilliams is added. 2. The Cubs go with the easy call and go Wesneski or Thompson. But I'd expect Wesneski. McWilliams is looking good stuff wise and Kohl was just brought up. Feels like this is Wes territory. 3. They go to Porter Hodge. Hodge has increased his strike rate to 68%, is on thr 40 and has awesome stuff. It'd be a huge jump but Ben Brown was a big jump and he's been mostly successful. Counsell does things a bit different and I could see him liking the stuff there. I find this unlikely right now...but it feels "on the table" as an off the radar thing.

Thompson is a disaster waiting to happen. I've got an article in the can talking about him. His velocity is down. His stuff isn't moving as much. And he's been hit hard even when he hasn't given up runs. I'm really hopeful it isn't.

1. That's not 'really' Sports Illustrated. That's FanNation, something similar to Bleacher Report. It's far less trustworthy. FanNation is just "a part" of the SI Network. 2. That article is written by a Marlins' "beat writer". Probably not very acclimated with the Cubs. 3. SI has gone through huge layoffs recently thus why someone who covers the Marlins is covering the Cubs. They run a skeleton crew. This is barely the SI you knew. It also explains #4 4. The only "source" is the joke tweet from Sports Mockery. Likely fooled a Marlins beat who isn't following the correct Cubs sources. 5. Here is Alden Soto, the same person with the original tweet, with a follow up: It's not real. Hendricks is not on the IL.

Stuff wise he's been fine as @Bertzpointed out. This is really a command/control issue, IMO. He's not piping pitches but that command is leaking to more and more hittable areas. The hope is that this is a 2021/2022 mechanical fix where the command can be re-found, and Hendricks can look more like the guy in 2023. With that said, I do believe command/control is a skill that can decline as well. If it's decline, than I fear Hendricks may have a very sharp cliff. If it's mechanical, there probably aren't many more minds out there on the mound more in tune with what they need to do to maximize their stuff than Hendricks. The hope is that it's the second, my fear is that there's going to come a point when it becomes more likely it's the first and how much rope he'll get would then become a factor.

I don't necessarily think Hendricks has to be throwing meatballs to be missing locations. He's not throwing meatballs, but he's catching a lot more of the plate. The left is 2024, the right is 2023. There's been a shift where the stuff off the plate is coming much much closer to the plate. His stuff has always been "fringey", but has played well up due to command and control. I think the margins for error here are a lot slimmer. So even when he's throwing pitches that "aren't that bad"...they're far more hittable than others who throw "not that bad". Particularly, look at that splotch on the bottom right in the 2024 box; that's a hittable area. And he's missing far more middle-plate that before. There's a reason his changeup has gone from a +12 to a -4 in run value right now. This isn't to say this isn't fixable, but I think I'm more concerned about this than you are. There are some things like "it's three games" and "he's faced good teams" but there's also the "holy horsefeathers this isn't just a normal amount of bad" that you look at, at the totality of things to a degree. I think there's a good chance this is a mechanical fix, but as stated, I think that it's fair to wonder about a 34 year old's decline in ability to command/control as well. I really don't want to be panic-mode...I think on the continuum from "panic" to "everything is going to be fine" I'm far more in the middle of "I will wait and see" than you. Which is fine, IMO, as I think as long as you're stopping short of panic right now, you're probably in a fine territory when it comes to Hendricks

There's my boy Porter Hodge.

I think two things can be true at once: we shouldn't expect 40% of his flyballs to be home runs, but that there is also an underlying issue here that needs to be figured out. His whiff rate, chase rate, weak contact rate, are all way down. His xBA and xwOBA, xERA barrel rate are all way up. He's giving up a higher rate of no-doubt HR's than ever before. Some of this is just who he's faced: he's faced really good competition. Some of this was a little bad luck, like some of the hits he gave up early last night. Some of this is some regress-to-the-means-stuff, like the FB%. But I'm not entirely sure he'll be just fine, either because some of this is clearly an issue with Kyle, too. He's 34 and with the locations of his pitches, he's been a victim of his own failures in that respect. I don't want to sound the panic bells; I'm not shouting we should DFA him, but this has been a pretty awful no good start for him that is definitely raising some red flags. The good news is that there's a realistic reason to believe this is a mechanical thing and if there's one pitcher who can work on their command, it's probably Kyle Hendricks. The bad news is that at the age of 34, and someone who's worked with marginal stuff his entire career, it's also possible that a dip in command due to age regression is on the table, and that it could be a steep cliff for someone like Kyle, too. It's too early to say which it is, but it's also why I hesitate to be confident that he'll be fine. He might be! But...he really might not be, too. More so than other players who struggle initially in April, Hendricks has the recipe for someone I can see things turning sour quickly due to the factors of age, injury history, and stuff. From a personal stand point I'm really rooting for him as he's a personal favorite. But I really am a bit worried.

There was a game against...horsefeathers I think maybe the Columbia Fireflies last year? Not only was the angle horsefeathers...it was aimed directly at the sun. Completely and utterly worthless. I was so mad.

Hendricks hasn't been good in 2024, but I think the narrative that Hendricks was somehow a known quantity of being bad is just wrong. He was quite good in 2023. The xFIP was unimpressive, but he's been an xFIP beater his career. He was worth 2.8 fWAR. And the Cubs had to make the Hendricks option choice pretty early - they really didn't know the market was going to go how it ended up. It gave the Cubs a reasonable pitcher (2.5 fWAR) on a reasonable 1 year contract. It gave them options in the rotation next season. Once we lost Stroman, there wasn't much of a choice, I don't think. It was a very defensible move at the time. It sucks he's been rough these three starts. I think there's probably some tweaks to fix this. There's no discernable velocity drop. There is a command issue, and it's possible that with some mechanical fixes, the control seen more in 2023 can return. He's also gotten saddled with facing Texas, San Diego and LA to start the season. With worse competition, and a bit better command, there's still the potential of a decent starting pitcher. With that said, it's probably fair to start asking ourselves what rope Hendricks has and when the line comes that tough conversations need to be had.

I think it's a little of column A and a little of column B, personally. I don't think he's been horrible but I also think we're starting to see a bit of a tipping point with Hendricks right now as the command just hasn't been there like it was when he as younger. Through four innings, Hendricks has two swings and misses. Entering, he was at an ~8% in-zone-whiff%, a 6.5% drop from last year. The reality of guys who don't get whiffs is that they're going to see more pitches hit in the line of play and more of those low xBA hits are just going to drop as a matter of sample size, as well. I'm not so worried about the 9.00 ERA, but the severe lack of whiffs is a red flag. He's really been leaving pitches up in the zone a lot more and he's just not getting as many off the plate. Not a panic-mode-post, but not a great start for a pitcher I think is kind of running closer and closer to the margins as well. Hopefully there's a mechanical change that can get the pitches back to that off-corner like he had in 2023, and less like he was at in 2021-2022 (sorry to take this post in a bit of a different direction. I went to respond...then thought "Hey I should peep TruMedia!"...then...well...this is where my ADHD brain ended and wanted to share regardless of the initial direction of the post because I thought it was interesting)

Eh, I think to a degree. I'll give him the early runs were a bit of bad luck. The last two runs were well earned; 91 EV (.970 xBA) single, 102 EV (.790 xBA) double, scores previous hit and 103 EV (.940 EV) triple, scores after ground ball. Those two runs weren't bad luck.

Yep. Back to back over 100mph, one a triple, and the other an almost triple.

All MiLB Games either: - Are shown from a ridiculously terrible angle or - Broadcast via with the all of the definition and clarity of an iPhone3

Glad I'm not alone! It's such as weird little motion

Busch crushed a slider. This is awesome progress, as sliders have been pitches Busch has had the biggest in-zone-whiff% issues with in Triple-A, both in 2022 and 2023. He's been a great hitting on fastballs >95mph (and has been getting better at the 94-95mph stuff). If he gets better at sliders too? Watch out ya'll.

Get it Busch!

So I'm well acquainted with Cease. I know who he is, what he throws. I know who he was drafted by and traded for. But I've never really watched Dylan Cease throw. He's far more awkward looking mechanically than my brain thought he'd be.

I mean, that was like major injuries and health scares ago. I really don't think there's much here. If something comes of it...great. But I wouldn't say there's much potential other than a cool story. I'm rooting for him, don't get me wrong...but I think putting him in the "has potential" category is a bit much.

Does he? I've seen his name mentioned a few times, but there's not much I'm excited about here. He's 32, he's logged 5 innings since 2021, and his K rate is way down. He's a cool story, and a lottery ticket...but the odds are really stacked against Brad Wieck being anything any more.