Jason Ross

60 PA's can be enough PA's to make statements on things...it depends on the statistic at hand and the discussion. . When we're discussing strikeout rates, K% doesn't stabilize until 50-60 PA's, depending on the source. I've linked two sources here, Fangraphs (60 PAs) and RedLegNation which has it at 50 PAs. Regardless of whether we're going to set the line for stabilization at 50 or 60 PA's, Pete Crow-Armstrong currently has 23 at the MLB level...not even half of the low end. So I stand behind my comment: this is not a data set that matters today. We should be discussing his swing%, contact% and the likes currently of his Triple-A data if want to discuss what he's done. As well, we should be paying attention, specifically to changes in that data set; the changes I highlighted. Secondly, no one here thinks MLB pitching is the same as Triple-A pitching, let's not shift the discussion or create new tangents. No one has mentioned they're the same. With that said, his Triple-A data is relevant for as discussion on his hit tool. You're also the one who brought up his scouting data; I didn't bring up his MiLB information in a vacuum. If he had hit-tool issues worth concerning ourselves with currently, he wouldn't have league average contact% or improving in-zone whiff issues. There's nothing he's done that suggests a hit tool issue as of today. Again what he got beat at yesterday in a few PA's is nothing. Shoehei Ohtani got beat on fastballs on the outside third of the plate yesterday, yet on the season that's a hot spot for him. We don't use single game, or single pitch information as anything other than anecdotal. C'mon, man, you know this. You're making a lot of sweeping, declarative statements based on sample sizes that are simply not large enough to do that. They're not even half large enough to form a real opinion on at the MLB level yet. No one here is going to say his first 23 PA's have been perfect, but they're not a relevant sample size, either. Pulling his K% or contact rate right now is a misuse of that information. It's small enough that he needs like 2 days to flip it on it's head. Is his hit-tool MLB ready? Well, we're going to find out, aren't we? What we can say is that thus far his hit-tool has been league-average in Triple-A, and he's improved his contact rate from 2023 to 2024. One thing we do know, is that hitters's ability to make contact with the baseball is a statistic that correlates relatively highly to the MLB from Triple-A. So does strikeout and walk rate. Approach transfers. Contact ability transfers. PCA is in a weird intersection of having a hit tool right now that looks good enough and an approach that is wild and uncontrollable. Why his approach has gotten worse and not better is the key here. If they can get that moving in the right direction, he'll probably be fine.

Luzardo down with elbow discomfort. Notable as he could be a TDL guy.

So, I think we need to understand a few things: 1. FG's scouting reports are not great now a days. They've been lagging behind for years and while I really like Logenhagen, there seems to be a lack of funding and an inability on the FG team to keep up with prospect rankings with others. 2. There's not enough data in his MLB data set to matter. Please stop using this data set when we have larger, better data sets out there. These are small sample sizes that have no where near enough sample to matter, and are wildly effected by luck/small swings, etc. We have his MiLB Triple-A data which is a much larger data set, and much more clear. - His in-zone whiff% has dropped from 2023 to 2024 by roughly 5%. His in-zone whiff currently sits at 22% in Triple-A. Current Triple-A in-zone whiff league number sits at 19.3%. Contact% has improved from 68% to 72%. League Triple-A contact% is 72%. His Triple-A data suggests he does not have a hit-tool issue and we're seeing a good increase in ability to make contact from his first taste to current. - Not only that, we're seeing pitchers attack, in the zone, his weakness in his swing (up and away). This isn't some unique issue, we see, especially LHH with LA geared swings, struggle with this pitch (I.E See Michael Busch). And yet, the in-zone whiff has gone down - His chase rate is the issue. His chase% has gone up nearly 10% this year, and has doubled in hitter-count situations to over 50% chase rate. - We also have seen a massive increase in swing%. Just under 10% increase. This is not someone who has a hit tool issue. He doesn't have a 70-hit tool, but this isn't a hit tool issue. This is someone who has an approach issue right now. He's always been hyper aggressive, His swing% in 0-0 counts has jumped. His swing% in hitters counts has jumped. But his swing% in pitcher's counts hasn't. And these aren't small jumps. Again, like 10% increases in these situations. That's a big jump. So...why would we see the swing% jump in early counts and hitters counts but not with two strikes? Why the chase rate in hitters count through the roof? Probably one or two things. Maybe a combination. This reads like a hitter who is either desperately trying to stay away from two strike counts and away from the high up-away pitch by swinging at more pitches. That wouldn't be surprising to see him struggle initially to implement a brand new approach at the plate and figure that out. It also reads like an emotional 22 year old kid pressing and forcing the issue instead of letting the game come to him, which would make perfect sense for someone who struggled for the first time in his professional career and with the hype he has. But again, let me stress this: this doesn't read like a hit tool issue. This is entirely an approach issue right now. But it's also a fixable approach issue.

I think he might be ready for High-A.

Yes. In-zone whiff since Saturday (a random date) is well above his season number of 20%, all the way up to 32%. His chase is a little up to, by a few points. In his defense, pitchers are throwing him really well right now. Crushing him out and away and he's likely protecting that painting. That's just going to be hard for anyone. I think he'll be fine once pitchers stop painting him. He's gotten very little to hit. You can see they're petrified of coming inside on him right now, where Busch has killed pitchers. Eventually, guys are going to stop painting against him and they'll have to come back in the zone. I think he'll be a-okay.

Man, based on sound alone I thought Busch got a hit. Was bummed out when the radio alerted me it was a flyout.

If Nico and Tauchman could the ghost runner thing and just be hitter A and hitter B and switch out...we'd still be in the first inning with zero outs. Both guys are doing great

To give credit to both on their last swings: Busch's fly out had an EV of 99.8mph and an xBA of .550 Swanson's flyout had an EV of 104.8 mph and an xBA of .840 It's bad luck either one of them didn't land. It's real bad luck neither landed.

I can't give you a ton on him this year. With no statcast data in HIgh-A and my time split more on others, I haven't had a ton of time to spend with South Bend myself. What I can see are a few articles on him and piecemeal some stuff together. An article from New Jersey seems to suggest strong extension and ride on the fastball with mid-80's changeup/curveballs. The curve sounds like it's more horizontal movement than vertical, as well and is his better of the two. I'll try to keep an eye on SB here a bit more as school is slowing down over the next month and see if I can get a better idea on him.

Nah nah nah, nah nah nah. Canario with the webgem.

Shameless self promotion, but I wrote in-depth on it here if you're interested in it! There's a bunch of stuff in there, but basically, my feels are mixed. Changes in his swing choices are clear, whether they're going to make him a better hitter at the MLB...is debatable. I like that he's doing more damage on swings. I really like his story so I'm in his corner for sure.

Ish. There are things he's doing better; for example, he's pulling the ball more and he's hitting the ball harder. He's chasing a bit less. He's also making less contact than he's ever made on the whole; down to about 68%. Mervis has clearly changed a bit and trying something new...which was likely a necessary thing. With that said, I'm not entirely certainly he's doing things better. They're different. I still remain pretty on the fence on if they're better, though. I'm not against him getting a fair shake now that he's on the MLB roster however. No reason to overly panic about the 7 PA's. He's here...so might as well let him cook.

Yep. Early season stuff is weird. Just really takes like a good week and things shift drastically in different directions. Great to see him figuring it out. Being on the 40-man, if he can make his way to Iowa this year...that'd really help; both in a trade or the Cubs propper.

My cold-streak tracker strikes again! Will Sanders had a good game after I added him. Paciolla and Alcantara got going after they found their way on the list. I'm taking full credit.

I did a lot of digging into PCA last night when discussing him with someone else off this board. I came to some weird conclusions at first, and then with more information, I've at least come to a thought process of what's happening. He's having a weird year offensively: 1. His in-zone whiff% is down 5% (good!) and his contact% is up 4% (good!) 2. His chase rate is comically bad: 45%+. It's over 53% (double last year) in hitters' counts. 3. Pitchers are using this to their advantage. He's seen an increase of 6% of non-competitive strikes. This doesn't seem like an accident. You've got a guy who will essentially offer at anything right now, especially when he's ahead. 4. His swing% in general is way up. 5. Pitchers are more consistently attacking up and out on him and he's not responding well to that pitch I'm hoping a little break from Triple-A and a few days as a defensive replacement will calm him down a bit. The numbers look like a hitter who's struggling mentally right now and is way deep inside of his head. I can't say I know PCA the person, but my educated guess on looking at the data and the way he plays is that he's an emotional kind of guy and perhaps he's let his emotions get the better of him. He appears to be pressing, especially when he gets ahead in the count...he's trying to do too much. Perhaps he's desperately trying to force his way to Chicago, or prove that he's ready. Maybe he's struggling and letting that compound. Either way, the data makes me think this is a mental thing for him.

I teach in an advanced program. There are days when I realize that of the 31 human beings in my room, I'm probably the dumbest one. I only beat these kids with experience.

You know, you'd think so...but kids these days are huge, man. I'm between 5"10 and 5"11 and there have to be 10-15 students who already are taller than me. I've got a student who's over 6"0 and 200lbs already!

If you told me the amount of injuries the Cubs had, and their schedule... I'd never have guessed they'd be 15-9.

Ah, you'll forgive me. My ability to handle emotion and tone are completely gone after an 8 hour day of middle school. If you're wondering "Hey, what's that like?" well, I had a boy at 3:30 ask me for a spoon (I don't have one). Five minutes later, I look over, and the kid has a pyrex of mashed potatoes (which had to have been in his backback...literally all day) hand-shoveling them into his mouth using fingers he almost assuredly hadn't washed once all day. Needless to say, I'm dead inside right now.

Does Savant not change the strike zone to account for the hitter? Seems like a weird oversight.

FWIW, Savant has it a strike.

Man...there was some iffy stuff in Neris' 2023 data. I'm not loving what I'm seeing because it's all that stuff amplified.

It's weird. But probably the right move until Morel makes you more comfortable. He's clearly capable of the spectacular, but he tends to lapse on the regular.

Yodan due up 3rd and then Tucker after him, so I'd guess Wes is a no-go. Those two lefties + Wesneski probably not the best bet. I'd guess Neris.

Not sure if anyone missed it, but Morel was up to a -1 OAA pre-game. Which isn't good, but the way he looked the first week...that's kind of a big jump.