Jason Ross

Getting old sucks. My school recently hired a girl to teach Science/Stem on my team. A girl named Kaitlyn. 12 years ago, it was my first year at this school and I was teaching sixth grade. In my first class I ever taught in that school year, there was a girl named Katie. Katie and Kaitlyn are the same people. I'm now working with my former students who I taught when they were in sixth grade.

He might still be hitting under .250 in two months, but it still might not mean much. I mean this as kindly as I can, but it's 2024 and while we shouldn't just throw batting average in a trash bin and ignore it completely, it's not really a statistic that on it's own is a very useful barometer for offensive success. As of today, despite everything, Christopher Morel has a 96 wRC+. You're new and I'd prefer not to assume your knowledge of statistics, so with that said, you can ignore this part if you're savvy with wRC+, but essentially that means he's been just 4% below being an average MLB hitter (average is 100). This is a number that is adjusted for year, environment and the likes. This is despite carrying a BABIP, or batted-ball-in-play (batting average subtracting out home runs and strikeouts, plays that don't land where a defense can affect the play) of .205. His career BABIP is .286, but even that number is low; he was a .320 and a .303 entering the year. If he was making poor contact quality than maybe his BABIP being low would be deserved, but one look at his baseball savant page tells you everything you need to know; Morel is squaring up balls really, really well...that BABIP should be high. That's a lot of words, and maybe you don't need the crash course (in which case, forgive me, you're not someone I know quite yet and I ere on the side of caution when it comes to talking data with folks I don't know versus assuming and having it go over someone's head), but essentially it boils down to this: Morel has been just 4% worse than league average despite having a batting average that is likely .100 points lower than it deserves to be. But more so, Morel is someone who's walking really well, he has shown wonderful plate approaches, and coupled this with a really good power bat. Defensively...he's a work in progress. But he's probably been good enough that he deserves to be 30% better than league average (if not more) offensively. Maybe he'll stop doing what he's doing and get frustrated and revert back to old Morel and then we can re-examine all of this; this is all predicated on what he's been doing this year and how he's approached at bats. But if Christopher continues to do what 2024 Morel has been doing...he's a really good hitter and the tide will turn there with time.

The average MLB team has seen 55.7 attempts to steal against them. The Cubs have had 58 attempts. So, again, we're talking 3 stolen base attempts extra over the course of 60 games. It should also be noted as well: the Cubs have had the most opportunities for teams to steal. So while the Cubs are giving up more steals, they also have had more runners on first base that could potentially steal. They've had 594 pitches where someone could have chosen to steal second base. They've only had the ninth most attempts. I think in the end, the numbers are really low here. They feel big because we see the numbers like "The Cubs are tied for last in throwing out stolen bases" and it's easy to look at the word like "last" and think it's a big deal. But I think the more you dig into it, the more you realize...it's not really a big thing. It's not that it couldn't be better and anecdotally we can find issues in specific moments here or there, but overall, I think it's a drop in the ocean.

Appreciate it! This was sincerely one of my favorite articles I've written (thanks to Matt Trueblood on the book suggestion). Digging into the numbers on sends and the percentages was quite fascinating and coming to realize my preconceived notions of "send em!" seems to have statistical backing was both self-satisfying and just good information to have.

Trading Morel right now would probably be a major mistake. We can debate his defensive ability moving forward and how likely he is to take a jump, but he's been the recipient of some really bad luck. His batted ball data is wonderful, and despite the rough overall numbers, his expected wOBA is .379...that's top-20 in baseball. He is the only player in the top-42 hitters in xwOBA to be below a 107 wRC+, one of only three to be under 100 and the only hitter in the top-27 to be under 125. Selling there would probably be a terrible decision if he continues to hit the baseball like he has. He's been the recipient of some bad outcomes. As TT said...we need to wait and Morel is probably the best reason why.

Yeah the catcher framing thing is interesting. It doesn't seem to be transferable as of now. Amaya, so far, has been a bit worse from 2023 to 2024; though nothing major. And Gomes was bad last year and is worse this year. Traditionally when Counsell (or maybe more importantly, the Brewers) has gotten a new catcher the framing thing seems to be near immediate; Contreras and Narvaez were good basically Day 1. And I know Counsell didn't bring his staff over; so I'm guessing with the catch-framing gurus staying there that it was likely them, not Craig who's the driver. Perhaps though Counsell will push the Cubs to find their own catch-framing gurus moving forward, though.

I think the stolen base thing is a bit overrated. Without looking, I want you to think about how many caught stealing (or, in other words, how many runners a team has thrown out) is the average for the league. Is it 20? 25? Just think of the number. Then think of how many the Cubs have thrown out. What's a big number to you over the course of two months? In reality, the average MLB team has caught 12.4 runners stealing. The Cubs have caught eight. And while I don't want to ignore four as "nothing" the Cubs have already played 60 games, so that's really one caught stealing per 15 games short. It's probably not something worth worrying much about. Where the Cubs are struggling is on the catcher framing and catcher defense as a team. but a lot of that is Yan Gomes who's been just brutal; he's the second worst framing catcher in baseball right now. Catcher is going to be an interesting thing to see the team address. Really what they need is another Sean Murphy type of a player to hit the market, someone who's a more than capable hitter as well as a very strong defender. It's something the system they have doesn't appear to be producing (Ballesteros doesn't appear to be a plus catcher if he sticks there at all) and the Cubs have prospects to burn. Sadly, I see no one like that.

Well, I don't think there's anything a GM can really do today. In many ways, June 3rd is a "lie in your bed you made" situation. The trade market isn't viable unless you're willing to overpay a bunch or you think the difference between where you are and where you want to go is a very marginal trade. Most of the Cubs errors right now cannot be fixed and are self-inflicted. The hope would be that players who are underperforming where you thought they wouldn't will come out of the slump. I don't think the answer is a lineup switch or a swap. I don't see anything in the minors capable of really coming up to fix anything today (they've kind of already gone that route due to a combination of "have to" because of injury and "maybe we'll try this..."). I think this is the team you've got right now and it probably won't be able to be fixed, changed or overly amended in the next 45 days or so.

In Willie Harris's three-plus seasons as the third base coach of the Chicago Cubs, they have been the most aggressive team in baseball at trying to score--and they've been thrown out the most often. The outs--especially a few recent ones--have earned Harris a lot of criticism. Is that fair? Image courtesy of © Melissa Tamez-USA TODAY Sports In the ninth inning of Friday's loss to the Reds, with two runners on base, Seiya Suzuki laced a double down into the well in Wrigley Field's left-field corner. Pete Crow-Armstrong scored easily, making it a one-run game. Willie Harris sent Nick Madrigal (who began the play at first base) screaming around third. Madrigal was thrown out at the plate (fairly easily), sparking hot debates online about whether it was the right send or not. I'm here to defend Harris. Before I get too deep into this, I think I should own up to something: I already have a predisposition for sending guys around third. I've run my adult league team for a decade, and I rarely trust an adult infielder or outfielder to throw a perfect strike to the plate. Considering my team isn't good enough normally not to take every chance we get to score, I wave guys home like crazy. And the results have been mixed: a bunch of them got thrown out. Much like I shouldn't trust an adult outfielder to throw a strike, maybe I shouldn't trust the knees of the 36-year-old third baseman I have rounding the bag, either. All of this is to say that I know my blind spots and my personal biases going into this. The good news for me and my predisposition is that, when it comes to the belief that you should be sending guys home as often as you can, I'm not alone. Russell Carleton, an author of multiple books on baseball and a writer for Baseball Prospectus, is (at least) on that island with me. In his book "The Shift," the author spends a decent amount of time examining the 2014 non-send of Alex Gordon, which would eventually result in the defeat of the Kansas City Royals by the San Francisco Giants. "I think that all third-base coaches should be fired and replaced with a sign on a stick that points to the left and says "RUN!"," Carleton wrote in that section. He then used charts, figures and data (which I will be relying on) to argue that third-base coaches, essentially, should be waving as many guys home as they can. If Carleton and I are on an island in this belief, we have at least one more member in our little tribe: Harris. Much has been made about a tweet that was published after the game by twitter/X user Biblical Losses that highlights just how many runners the Cubs have had thrown out at home over Harris's tenure as the Cubs' third-base-coach. The tweet points out that in 2022, 2023, and 2024 (so far) the Cubs lead the league in runners thrown out at home, and since 2021 (Harris's first year with the Cubs), the team has had 74 instances of a runner being thrown out at home. On the surface, that number sounds bad, almost as if the Cubs have thrown away 74 runs over that span. But what if I told you context matters and that Willie Harris is doing the right thing? The first thing we should do is zoom out...way, way out. For example, one thing that's probably very important to point out is that, since 2021, the Chicago Cubs have been one of the best baserunning teams in baseball. Over that span, they rank eighth in total BsR value, per FanGraphs. It should also be noted that as the Cubs' overall talent level on the roster has increased, their baserunning value has increased, going from the 17th-best team ('21), to the fourth-best team ('22), to the eighth-best team ('23 and '24). All of that cannot be laid on the feet of Willie Harris--this takes into account many things that Harris cannot influence--but clearly, whatever he's doing over at third isn't killing the team on the whole. But what about those pesky 74 outs at the plate? Now is probably the time to talk about the success percentage of sending runners, and the number is, at least in my humble opinion, shockingly high. Using data provided from "The Shift", it almost doesn't matter what the situation is, how far the ball was hit, and everything in between; the success rate of sending a player home never dips under 94.4% (which, conveniently for this study, is the success rate of sending someone first to home on a double). That doesn't mean every send would have a success rate of 94.4% or better, if you sent a catcher from first to home on a routine single to left field, we know he doesn't have even a 5% chance to make it. Carleton makes sure to say that "coaches are only sending the runners who they are pretty sure will make it," so this is a data set that is clearly going to be biased, in that it's generally gauging successes to begin with. Regardless, these numbers go to show that when coaches decide to press that button, they're almost always right to do so. This, then, brings us back to Mr. Harris and his success rate. From 2021 to 2024, the Cubs have scored successfully on 95% of first-to-home sends. Over that span, the league has seen a success rate of 94.1%, which is right in the ballpark of the data provided by Carleton a fistful of years ago. This means that Harris is above the league average. What separates Harris, however, is just how aggressive he is, as the Cubs have the second-highest send rate, just behind the Tigers. Doing some very quick math, the Cubs have sent a runner from first to home three more times over that span than the league-average team. They also are successful 95% of the time; that means they've scored roughly three more runs than should have been expected. On the other side of the ledger, the Cubs have had only six runners thrown out at home going first to home over that span, which is actually one fewer than the league average. Harris's philosophy is coming out on top here, both on success rate and not getting guys thrown out (that overall number be damned). Where Harris seems to lose some ground is in second-to-home sends. For whatever reason, the Cubs are far less aggressive on second-to-home sends, as they rank just 23rd in send percentage in this situation, well below the league average. On top of that, the Cubs rank just 20th in second-to-home success rates, almost .5% below average. If there's a positive; the league averages 11.9 outs from second to home, and the Cubs have had 12 of these. So, despite the averages looking low, the Cubs are kind of carbon-neutral here. Looking at things as a whole, Harris is a net positive, not a net negative like "leading the league in outs at home" would make it sound. it's probably worthwhile to look at some of the specific sends of which Harris has been a part. The first one I'd like to explore dates back to Jun. 15, 2021. The highly mediocre Chicago Cubs are visiting the New York Mets. In the ninth inning, with one out, down by one and a runner on first, Cubs second baseman Eric Sogard (remember when he was starting for the Cubs?) laced a hit into right-center. Jake Marisnick (remember when he was starting for the Cubs?) is easily nailed at home from a relay starting with Kevin Pillar and assisted by infielder Luis Guillorme. azFMQmRfVjBZQUhRPT1fVlZkWlV3VlhWVmNBRGdjRVV3QUFBQVJmQUFOUVcxSUFWZ2RVVVFjQ0JnQlVWVllG.mp4 On the surface, it looks like a bad send, because of how soundly the ball beats Marisnick to the plate. But adding some context probably helps explain the situation: the hitter who was due up next was groundball machine Jason Heyward (sporting a 50% ground ball rate on the season); it's unlikely Heyward hits the game-tying sacrifice fly. On the mound was Seth Lugo: a pitcher who had a fairly low ground ball rate on the season, but traditionally, got roughly 45% of ground balls over the course of his career at the time. As well, the Mets' second baseman and relay man, was Guillorme, whose arm strength was in the 26th percentile on the season. Marisnick, who was tearing past third base on his way to score, on the season, was in the 90th percentile for sprint speed. Now, add it all up. Was that really as bad of a send as the video makes it seem? I don't think so. For a different result (but in a similar situation), let's look at a game from early last season. The Chicago Cubs are trailing the Miami Marlins 2-0 at home, entering the ninth inning. Cody Bellinger, with Ian Happ on first base, rips a Sandy Alcántara pitch into left-center, where Bryan De La Cruz tracks the baseball down. De La Cruz, using his above-average sprint speed (59th percentile) and above-average arm (68th percentile) gets the baseball to shortstop Jon Berti. Berti, doing everything he can with his 21st-percentile arm strength, throws the ball home, hoping to gun down Ian Happ and his 60th-percentile sprint speed, with the ball beating Happ but the throw being offline. Happ scores. ZFpMN0tfWGw0TUFRPT1fQUFCVkFRY05VUU1BVzFNRkFBQUFDQUVFQUZoWEJsQUFCUUFBVmdWVFZRdFVCUXBR.mp4 Bellinger would score on a Hoerner single, and the Cubs would go into extra innings (where, full disclosure, they lost, 5-4). This situation was shockingly similar to the previous one, and Harris's aggressiveness paid off big-time. Sure, Happ would have scored from third on Hoerner's single, but maybe Bellinger wouldn't have scored from second. Or maybe the pitches to Hoerner would have been different, and he never would have gotten that hit. What we can say for sure is this: the send was successful, and helped the Cubs extend the game. So, that brings us to Friday afternoon. Harris sent Madrigal and his 38th-percentile speed around third base from first, trying to tie the game in the ninth inning. Cody Bellinger and his 54% fly-ball rate waited on deck. The Reds' left fielder, Spencer Steer, used his 82nd-percentile arm to get the ball to Elly De La Cruz's 92nd-percentile arm in shallow left field. Two perfect throws created a situation in which Madrigal was thrown out at home, and the Cubs eventually lost the game by one run. Maybe Harris shouldn't have sent Madrigal: he's not particularly fast. Maybe it looks a little worse because Steer and De La Cruz are both plus throwers. But we also know this: when Harris starts waving guys home from first, he's successful 95% of the time, despite being the second-most aggressive sender in the league. All it took was one throw offline, such as what happened in the Marlins' example, and the game is tied. De La Cruz, as well, was tasked with throwing a perfect strike from well outside of the infield--not a particularly easy ask, regardless of where his arm strength places him amongst his peers. In the moment, it's hard to blame Harris who has a ton of success. Let the 74 outs go. You're going to have more outs when you create more situations, and Harris creates more of these than almost anyone. Despite that, he's almost always right. It's easy to Monday-morning-quarterback this to death, but Harris's résumé speaks for itself, and I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt on the choice. If Madrigal scored, we'd all be calling him a genius, and the overall data would have supported his choice. In the end, I think there's enough information here to support the decision to Willie Harris' aggressive nature. Yes, sometimes Nick Madrigal or Jake Marisnick are going to get hosed at home. Sometimes the throws are perfect, the runner just isn't fast enough, and you get caught out. But 95 out of 100 times, Willie Harris has been right to wave those arms in these exact types of situations. The Cubs, as well, are a team who needs to win on the margins, so being above-average here is probably important to the team. The next time the Cubs have a player attempting to score from first, I hope Harris's aggressive nature continues and, forgive me for speaking for Russell Carleton here, but I think both myself and Russell would be yelling "GO!" from our couches as well, watching Wavin' Willie work. What do you think of Cubs' third base coach Willie Harris? Do you think he should have held up Nick Madrigal? Or do you think he needs to tone down the sends? Let us know in the comment section below. View full article

Yep. I think he's a wonderful hitter. The Cubs do love their models...

I did miss that. I saw Almonte was playing catch as of the 21st so still think he could be back by July 1st. Bummer on Merryweather. Life's been pretty busy lately so I've been missing a bunch.

I want the Cubs to find a way to get Ryan Waldschimdt from Kentucky. I *love* his bat profile: there's a super simple motion with a great approach. He smashed SEC competition this year and the power is flashing more and more: went 109 mph and 440 off the bat in pouring rain yesterday in the college WS Regionals. He's fast and there's enough athleticism he can handle CF if someone can teach it to him. He's very new to the OF and has been playing LF for Kentucky. Maybe I wouldn't take him fourteenth (though in this draft, I'm not sure the difference between 14 and 40 matters a huge ton, for example) but he's a guy I'd want to see what he could do with a strong developmental team. Whomever drafts him, I think, will be quite happy.

That's a move. Madrigal is terrible, so whatever, try David Bote out. I think Bote probably sucks too, but Madrigal's run his course at this stage.

I'd move Brown. I know that's going to be met with resistence, but I think it serves two purposes: 1. It saves his innings. We know he's a bit more of an issue with injuries than others due to his motion and stuff. 2. It helps the BP. Ben Brown can add something to a bullpen that has been awful. You start adding Brown, Wesneski to Lieter Jr and you begin to have a small core of reliability. Neris has been better his last 7 appearances; dropping his walk rate down to 7% over that span. If Neris can become reliable, you've got four guys. Merryweather and Almonte are maybe back by the end of the month and you might be up to five or six. Tyson Miller looks like he's reliable, so there's seven. The Cubs can start to scratch out some guys they can begin to trust. Injuries will happen, maybe Neris loses it again, or Almonte never gets healthy or something, but there's a small light at the end of the tunnel. It makes a somewhat reliable group of guys so you don't feel like you have to trade for a full need BP.

Un. Real. Moment. Holy horsefeathers.

Hope it remains "soreness" over everything. Figure as much as the Cubs will be very cautious on his return, they were probably equally as cautious last night so a slight twinge or small sore spot would probably result in a pull regardless.

I sincerely think the Cubs are tinkering and playing around here. I know people are going to look at the numbers and panic but let's not forget that this pitcher at Iowa last year: 31 K%, 15.8 BB%, 5.33 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 4.53 xFIP Now is a: 29.9 K%, 9.2 BB%, 2.72 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 1.4 fWAR pitcher in the MLB with just an offseason between the two data points. Cade Horton is showing some similar things: his K% remains very high at 26.3% but his GB% has tanked; there's something the Cubs are doing with him specifically at Triple-A. I know the balls from Double-A to Triple-A are different, as they begin using the MLB ball. I really think the Cubs use Triple-A as a "learning new stuff" level and then unleash pitchers to do what they do best again at the major league level. There's been talk of them playing with the shape of his fastball, and this could result in a change mechanically that he's working through, or a change in command/control as he's learning how his fastball moves now in terms of locating it properly. Not to say you're panicking or anything, and not to say it's not a bummer, most just saying to all...I'm not very concerned.

Just because someone isn't expected to be Yordan Alvarez with the bat does not mean all development is done. PCA showed incredibly horrible swing decisions in Triple-A prior to being called up. Now I think that a lot of that was mental; upon getting his first MLB hit the contact rate was much better. But there's still development to be done. PA'S development is more important than him being a defensive replacement right now and until the OF situation changes, that's likely the role he'd play. As we get further into the season speed/glove and maximizing every spot (think August/September) will begin to crossover and be more important, but it's not even June right now. PCA getting significant playing time and developing is more important. Don't be impatient.

Figure he is back at square one right now. It's probably 2+ weeks of a throwing program ramping him up just to pitch in games. Then a week of simulated games/ACL and then a rehab stint where he probably goes TN, then back to backs (or two of three) at Iowa. That's four weeks minimum there. If not 4.5-5. This is his spring training all over.

That is accurate. He's a -3 DRS as well. *With that said* defensive metrics require larger samples in my opinion than any other statistic and are the most prone to "outlier" seasons where a player randomly over or under performs their talent levels. My guess is he will be fine, and those numbers are things to not even be concerned about. Nico is a good defender. They'll normalize.

Wood remains a top-3 favorite player of all time for me. I adore that game. It reminds the single best performance I can recall.

Yeah, you have to feel for the guy. He was finding himself a closer of a good MLB team and that one swing may put a lot of that in jeopardy. I hope for his sake it's a real, real bad bruise and he's fine.

Good thing is you can just move him to the IL...

In a strange way, perhaps blowing the game will be good for the team (as long as they win this). They've gotten a little good luck here in extras and are scoring runs. Maybe they can stop pressing so damn much and can begin...feeling like normal. The no-hit bid couldn't help that, either. They haven't had an inning like this for a while. And a 1-0 win would not have allowed for that.