Jason Ross

I quoted "unload" because unload generally has a negative connotation in terms of trades. When teams unload a guy, it's usually coupled with a bad contract or a bad influence. Like, the Washington Nationals didn't unload Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres so much as they just traded him. It's semantics, but when you say the Cubs can unload Steele, it comes across as though the Cubs have to or he's a negative, when I'd argue anything but that being the case. You're right, I did, however slightly mispeak on 2028; when I looked on FG they had him listed as FA in 2028; what I assumed that meant was post-'28 season, not pre-28 season. Small mistake. Point remains; tons of control. Secondly, I fully disagree with the teams' "inability" to adapt to a run-scoring environment. The Cubs finished 7th last year in runs scored! Yeah, this year sucks, but how is that a failure to adapt? This is largely a similar offensive team as last year. Run scoring is down in general, but the Cubs tried to essentially run back a top-10 offense last year. I'll admit, I thought a little of that was positive variance last season, but it isn't like we're talking some massive shift in how offense is scored. We can, again, debate roster construction - the Cubs have not put priority on star-power-bats that might help carry the team in times of negative variance. We can also point out flaws in the lineup; they don't do velocity well. That's true. But they weren't going to be able to remake their entire lineup overnight, and while we'd hope the Cubs would hit better than a .295 wOBA on 95+ pitches league average is a .303, so they're not like, pathetically bad. Last season they had a .310 against 95+ compared to a .317 league wOBA and finished top-10 in runs scored. Every team has flaws offensively. Overall on fastballs the Cubs have gotten better, going from the 23rd best team to the 17th best; so I'm not sure how much more adoption they realistically could have gone through. I feel fine about 2025. The Cubs have a great system, real upside guys who are close to the majors. They have money to spend. They have a far more defined "need" list and it's less wishy-washy. Let's put it this way: the Cubs have blown 17 saves and the average is 12. Assuming better health and some better variance, let's say the Cubs blew 12 games instead of 17, which, if the BP was mostly healthy (Alzolay, Merryweather, Almonte) feels realistic, no? The Cubs would be 42-37. They'd be 4 games behind 1st place (assuming none of those BS were against Milwaukee), and tied with the Padres for the 3rd WC. Would you feel that negative about 2025? I think our vision of the future right now is clouded, a lot, by present day frustrations...which...fair to a degree. It's hard not to be. But I think this year is like last year in inverse; we have to look through the trees to see the forest. The frustrations can't cloud what normal variance and normal luck would look like. I don't think it's a hopeless situation in the future. But I do think 2024 is starting to run out.

Because some of those guys are going to fail. And guys like Santander, who are good, but some of them will be allowed to walk, too. Every time we think a team has too many hitters or prospects who are *this* good, it always gets worked out. Remember when the Cubs had too many good shortstops? Things work out. It's different once we get tiers below (like, say, Davis and Canario!) But these high teir guys? They always find ways.

Yeah, I mean, I would too. But we also know that's like a 0% chance. Those prospects don't get traded now a days. You're likely talking lower level high upside guys who are 2-3 years out. Or higher level, mid-upside guys. Which is why I can't really see a reason to entertain Steele trades. I get the frustrations people have (I've got em too!) But trading Steele is the nuclear option when the issue here is more frustration than hopelessness.

Why are we assuming the Cubs will suck next year? I'd argue they don't suck now. This *year* sucks, but the Cubs have faced a pretty bad set of circumstances as well. Part of that is on them (poor performances), part of that is injury you cannot control, and part of that is bad luck that the slumps (and all teams have them) hit at the same time the team was ravaged by injury. You can't control much of that. That's not excusing it away, but understanding that if those things happened differently, we likely have a different outcome...it's why I don't think the Cubs suck, but that the year does. It's an inverse of 2023. Even so, he'd be able to more than "unload" Steele. Steele has until 2028. Barring thr Cubs packing it in and doing horsefeathers-all this offseason, it's probably a good bet the team enters 2025 with similar upside to 2024, if not a bit better (in the case the team adds the kind of talent we'd hope. Or at least one guy like that). I still wouldn't call Hoyer a wimp or not having the balls next season if Steele is still really good and the Cubs are mediocre if he kept him; he'd still be a Cub for 2026, 2027 and 2028! His clock is quite far away from hitting midnight and the Cubs shouldn't be super jazzed about trading away a 4 win, controlled arm like that. I think a lot of this is coming from frustration...which I get. Last night felt like a haymaker for 2024. Maybe that's a rally point and the Cubs get it together at the lowest point, but I think they're on borrowed time right now. I just think they're still set up to be fine in 2025 and talk of dealing Steele feels...extreme.

Steele hasn't even hit arb yet. He's 28 (though very soon to be 29). He's a career 3.26 ERA, has posted three seasons in a row (so far) with his highest xFIP of 3.58, so based on his GB's these all feel in line. For all of the "well can he repeat 2023..." all of his numbers are basically spot on them right now. He's a *very* good pitcher. He's on the right side of 30 and the right amount of control. He's (knock on wood) had no major arm related issues for a while (the IL stint was a leg muscle pull). Selling Steele is a nuclear option. I see no reason for the Cubs to hit that button right now. The Cubs season has been frustrating but why would the Cubs pull the rip cord on a 28/29 year old arm who's as good as Steele and controlled for three+ more years (he would hit FA in 2028)? The Cubs have no reason to not be a good team in that span. Maybe we don't give him an lengthy extension, but trading him now feels...like a real bad idea.

A full-blow-up is both unnecessary, and likely, a bad idea. It's unnecessary because as frustrating as this year is, this isn't a team devoid of talent like, say, the Rockies or the White Sox, almost, across the board. They have players you'd consider to be average to above average starters at LF, RF, CF, 2b, 1b, SS. They have a rotation that borders on really good when heathy. They have the foundation of a bullpen (one, that, is quite injured right now) - I know it doesn't feel that way, but a healthy Alzolay, Almonte, Leiter and Merryweather is a pretty good 7th-8th inning group (they're all on the IL). They've got plenty of youth; this isn't an old team (the current average age of Cubs' hitters is 28 and pitchers is 29). They have lots of prospects who are likely 2025 ETA (if not sooner). They also don't have a ton I think that is going to be tradeable at the deadline. Happ and Suzuki are NTC. Bellinger is either a rental or a $30m AAV guy - neither brings back a lot (depending on how you view his option situation). The players you might look to move have had bad years, like Hoerner (if you thought Shaw needed to be a 2b) or Morel (if you wanted to swap him for something else). They're not going to trade Busch, Swanson isn't movable, no one wants Amaya/Nido/Hendricks...So there's almost nothing to blow up if you wanted to for any sort of return, outside of like, nuclear and selling Steele. The Cubs aren't that far away. The holes they have are pretty glaring; the team has no distinct bullpen-shutdown option. Catcher is...ugh...it's a bad day when Tomas Nido is an upgrade. They need a real middle-order-bat - they need someone in the lineup who isn't just "good" but transcends good. We can debate how they can acquire them, or what they're going to do there...but I think the shopping list for the Cubs right now is small, and targeted. They have money (in theory) and prospects (in theory) to trade to get them (we can also debate if the team has the right people in charge to make the moves needed, but that's another topic, IMO). This was a team who probably could have won 84 or 85 games this year had injuries been less brutal, had players not collectively all been bad during the injury time and the like. It's not a brutal roster. It's a flawed roster - one that can't sustain down turns and negative variance in any meaningful way without the stars. But I think it's quite salvageable.

Alzolay threw 14 IP in April and 13 in May. He threw 14 in August. How was he "on pace" to shatter his innings when he was placed on the IL on September 10th? He was literally equally his innings highs the month before. Merryweather threw 11.2 in April. 12 in May, while throwing 14 in August and 12 in September. How is this "on pace" to shatter his high? August was his highest usage month and he threw...two more innings. And no, they all didn't "spend time on the IL" only one of them did...Julian Merryweather never was placed on the IL in 2023. His last IL stint before the back injury was in 2022 with Toronto. Mark Leiter JR has not been on the IL since 2018. On the topic of Leiter Jr...he threw 10.2 IP in April, 12 in May, 11 in June, 11 in July, 12 in August and 7 in September (because he completely lost the splitter). That's not shattering anything. You're inventing a narrative. Not only did two of the pitchers you claim went on the IL never were placed on the IL, there's no major uptick in usage later in the season. We can blame Hoyer for imperfect roster construction. We can say David Ross wasn't great manager. We cannot find anything to support the narrative that these three were abused by David Ross and that the reason they're sitting on the IL today is because Ross overly relied on them at the end of the season.

I think people deserve blame, but this is the wrong take. Julien Merryweather has a back injury. He threw 72 IP last year. He's eclipsed 70 IP in a season three times in the past. He's 31 years old. Not only is that not clearly overuse, his injury doesn't really stem from over use. Adbert Alzolay picked up 64 IP last year. He threw double that in 2021. In the majors. He was 28. Mark Lieter Jr, threw less innings last year than he did in 2022. He's 32. He threw the same amount as Alzolay. None of these pitchers were abused last year. Merryweather logged the most innings of any of them and there were 16 relievers who logged more innings. Alzolay threw the sixtieth most used reliever last year. Leiter is in the same area. David Ross wasn't a super-great manager. He didn't abuse those three. I don't disagree, the Cubs should have gotten another arm or two. But these three...they got hurt because pitchers get hurt. It sucks all three are hurt right now.

He can't. He can barely handle a Double-A staff as is. And he's in Iowa now. It doesn't mean he *cant* ever be an MLB catcher, but part of the downside of his bat being so advanced is that he will not develop as much defensively...which he needs. Catching is a position where guys usually take a longer dev time unless they're just naturally good at it. Consider this; Adley Rustchman came up at age 24 (and is now 26). He caught all through college and the minors. He had been catching four more years than Mo and was more advanced defensively to start. And Mo is in Triple-A at 20. By aggressively promoting his bat, he's likely going to be pushed off the position due to a lack of defensive dev time. Offensively he belongs in Iowa but defensively he's probably suited for like South Bend more so than anything. That's no shade, but his D just lags behind. Catching is a really hard position and he lacks experience. He's probably following a Kyle Schwarber career path, who, also, had a bat that out paced him defensively. That doesn't mean they have similar approaches, just that Schwarber hit too well to really develop at catcher, too. I don't think Kyle was ever going to get there, but because he hit so well he never got a chance to marinate defensively. So while there's a chance Ballesteros can help the Cubs, it's almost assuredly, as of now, only at DH.

10 game suspension is the standard for sticky stuff.

Ouch. That's a rough call.

The caveat of "it's super small sample size" and likely "curated PA's at that" should apply, but Busch is sporting a 132 wRC+ against LHP this year. Now, I don't expect him to be that good against lefties; this is in under 40 PAs. But he didn't sport horrible splits in Triple-A (well over .800 last year) and he's more than held his own when he's hit lefties this year. I'd like to see Busch start against a few more left handed pitchers moving forward. Sit him against the Nick Lodolo's, but I think he's earned a little bit more of a look against lefties

Not sure that's a great idea. He's fallen off significantly the last two seasons, posting deflated batting averages, likely due to increasing K issues. We don't have wRC+ for the Japanese Leagues (at least, I can't find it!) But his OPS have gone from over 1.000 to the mid .800s in 2023 and 2024 (to the lower .800s) He's a pretty good NPB hitter who strikes out a ton (81 in 64 games). Considering the jump to MLB pitching, Murakami seems like a bad bet unless there's some major contact changes. His prospect star has dimmed considerably.

That's a hard question to answer. Coming out of HS, the scouting report was always that the glove was legit, he was the best prep glove in the 2020 draft, and the bat had potential once Howard filled out. It was believed the glove was good enough that he had a pretty high floor and a very high likelihood, if he hit decently, that he'd make the MLB based on the glove profile mainly. Howard looked good defensively, but offensively was rough. Then he had a devastating hip injury and last year and early this year looked like it killed him as a prospect. Last 30+ days, however, the bat has come around. Defensive eye scouting is next to impossible at the MLB level for people who aren't doing it for a job considering how many people and how many innings you need to see. MLB feeds come with HD quality. MiLB scouting has all of the same caveats, just add in that the video quality makes you wonder if some of these clubs shoot their feeds on an iPhone4. Point is; I can't really say one way or another where his defense is today. But if the hip has come back to full health (which, based on his hitting seems plausible) then there's a reason to believe his glove is back to the 60+ grades it was getting a few years ago. Hopefully that gives you a good answer!

Hey, gotta find the positives out there! I know Ed Howard is the whipping boy of Cub fandom, but there's still some hope for him being a useful, albeit, unlikely starting option. At age 22, Luis Vazquez had a 72 wRC+ in Tennessee. after posting his first decent run of offense, a 118 wRC+ in South Bend (just 100 PA's). Now, he's on the MLB 40-man, there were times people were clamoring for him over Madrigal and Mastrobuni, and he'll either turn into a somewhat useful second piece in a trade, or a chance to be a backup INF. If Ed Howard followed the same path, sure it's probably less than what many dreamed of on draft day (though I'd also argue with how difficult the draft is, this would be a decent outcome), but considering in April he looked like a release-candidate...there's at least a somewhat believable path to relevancy here!

Just to echo a few other points, and to add some more to the discussion; no one here should be upset a bit about the 2021, 2022, or 2023 drafts, as all three look like absolute bangers right now. The Cubs have drafted plenty of useful-looking MLB players. You really couldn't ask more from either draft, and the Cubs have done well to, every year, find some guys beyond the 10th round who has become some sort of a prospect. They've used some of these draftable guys (Ferris/Hope) to land Busch as well. The only "bad" draft is 2020, and as others have mentioned, the context of that draft can allow you to give it a pass. As well, I think some added context to 2020 is needed: despite not drafting PCA and Caissie, both are 2020 picks who have, essentially, been entirely developed within the Cubs system. Luke Little still has a decent shot at being a useful MLB mid-reliever, and I suspect Matt Mervis will eventually be used in some sort of a trade to get an MLB piece. And listen, while it's a small sample size, Ed Howard is currently in his best run ever as a pro. His last 61 PA's have resulted in a 174 wRC+, a 7.6 BB%, a 21.1 K%, and a .530 BABIP. That's not enough today to say "they won that pick" but there's just enough juice left in that squeeze, that at 22 years old, and with all of the injuries he's had...that there's still some potential there. He's kept a 100 wRC+ over his last 100 PAs and there seems to be some real improvement. He's hit six doubles in his last 16 games (that's six of his season total of ten). He also looks healthy. Don't pencil Ed Howard in as a top-100 prospect, that'd be ridiculous. But if he reaches Tennessee this season at age 22...there might still be a prospect there, too.

It looked like we were going to avoid a one run game. Then the bullpen had to have a piece of the action.

Clearly, this is the Tomas Nido effect.

Phew. The 33 stolen bases in a row record was almost lost.

Oh, Dansby doesn't suck any more. This is a nice thing.

That's the stuff that really makes me mad. It's hard to be perfect (human element) and these guys throw really hard. I've had the pleasure of facing an MLB pitcher before and let me tell you; the stuff is just different. And he throws 92mph and isn't in the league any more. So, missing strikes and balls here or there...that's tough and I'll accept that. But just take the theatrics and bin it. The game isn't about the umpire and his ego. And I get that sometime a guy has to go because it's just too much. But Lane Johnson got tossed for turning around, there was the guy who got tossed from the dugout because a fan yelled something...get over yourself.

I think if we went back in time, like 20 or 30 years ago and looked at the data from those umpires and compared them to CB and Angel Hernandez...I bet they'd grade just fine. Like, Angel Hernandez wasn't great this year before he retired, but he wasn't even the lowest rated umpire in the game. And I suspect the worst umpires today are better than the worst umpires 20-30 years ago. There's always going to be a "worst" regardless of how much better people get. Where I think umpires get themselves in trouble is the theatrics. Tossing guys for small things, fragile ego stuff. They create a world in which they become lightening rods for criticism.

I highly suspect (and since we don't have the data we have today, it's hard to really track) that umpires across the league are getting better and better and better and that they make more calls correct than ever (they have access to the same tools we do!). The problem is that with access to data, the K-zone (which sometimes TV K-zones can be a bit misleading!), umpire score cards and the like, we're just more aware of when they're slightly off. None of that is to say don't automate the zone (please, do. I don't buy the "human element" of the game. The strike zone is a rule...just enforce the rule)...but I think umpires in general get a little unfair rap due to the wealth of information we have,

Horrible PA by Bellinger.