Jason Ross

I wonder how long until the Cubs pick up his option to extend this to five years.

At this point I'm not sure a Cy Young award is enough for how good Shota clearly is. The MLB will have to invent a new, more prestigious award to fully encapsulate Shota's brilliance.

Shota is awesome.

A big week for the Cubs in the minor leagues was highlighted by the much-anticipated callup of star prospect Cade Horton, to Triple-A Iowa. How was the rest of the week for the farm system? Image courtesy of © Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK Iowa Cubs (1-5) Rough week for the Iowa Cubs, as they were on the road facing the first-place Omaha Storm Chasers. The series loss dropped the team below the .500 mark on the season. Next up: a home series against bottom-feeding Columbus to (hopefully) reset the team. RF, Owen Caissie: 159 wRC+, 18.2 K%, 27.3 BB%, 1 HR: No matter what the Iowa Cubs record is, the Canadian right fielder is finding his groove at Triple-A. Homering off a lefty this week for his second long fly of the season, Caissie also managed to walk more than he struck out. I keep thinking he's going to hit a rough patch, but he's looking more and more ready for the next level. SP. Cade Horton: 4 IP, 6 K, 4 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: A weird start for Horton in many ways. First, the velocity was way down from where we saw it in Double-A. Secondly, the walks were entirely uncharacteristic. The good news is that, when pressured, he ran the strikeout play. There's also some interesting data showing poor IVB and extension on the fastball. Overall, I have to wonder if the Cubs have asked Horton to work on something specific, or to almost go 80% tilt instead of full-send. Keegan Thompson saw a decline in fastball velocity before coming up to Chicago and Justin Steele did the same on his rehab start. Just things to keep an eye on. P, Sam McWilliams: 4.1 IP, 7 K, 2 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: The 28-year-old righthander is a pitcher to whom the Cubs may turn at some point, to solve some of their bullpen woes. He's been especially effective in shorter stints, showing off much-improved stuff compared to when he was last in professional baseball. He did get knocked around a bit in his last outing, but I think he's been interesting enough that if the Cubs decide they want to add him to the 40-man at some point, it'd be a worthwhile experiment, given the issues they've had. OF, Brennen Davis: -16 wRC+, 15 K%, 15 BB%: Davis got off to a promising start, homering on a pitch he smoked at 113 mph off the bat. Since then, it's been downhill for the former top prospect, as he managed just a single hit over the last week. Hopefully, he can get his feet under him, as the walk rate looks solid, but he's just not doing much with the rest of his game. Tennessee Smokies (4-2) The loss of their best pitcher, Cade Horton, to promotion did not stop down the Tennessee Smokies, as they took four of six against the Biloxi Shuckers. The Smokies continue their climb toward the top of the Southern standings as the cellar dwellers, the Chattanooga Lookouts come to town this week. SP, Kyle Hendricks: 5 IP, 7 K, 0 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: A promising rehab start for the Professor in Tennessee was punctuated by seven strikeouts and no walks. The command looked improved, and he looked sharper than he has so far in the majors, the major caveat being that this is Double-A and looks can be deceiving. The hope is that a short IL stint and rehab has gotten Hendricks on the straight and narrow again. Next up is a second rehab start in Iowa this week before he likely rejoins the team. C, Moises Ballesteros: 254 wRC+, 14.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 3 2bs: His season line is now over a 200 wRC+. That means Big Mo has been 100% better than the average Double-A hitter...as a 20 year old. I keep thinking he can't keep this up, and then he hits .500 over a full week of games. There may not be a prospect in all of baseball, at any level, off to a more impressive start to 2024 when we add in context. 1b, Haydn McGeary: 169 wRC+, 35.3 K%, 11.8 BB%: A better week for the big first baseman who's been off to a horrible start to the 2024 season. The power is still nonexistent and he's hitting far too many baseballs on the ground (if he's hitting them at all), but this is at least encouraging. It was expected that McGeary would make quick work of Double-A this year after tuning up the level last year with a 122 wRC+, but it has not gone according to plan. Maybe this gets him going? RP, Zac Leigh: 4 IP, 5 K, 2 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: The right-handed reliever is off to a great start in Tennessee and could see a bump to Iowa. While he's among the older prospects, at age 26 and still in Double-A, there remains a viable MLB reliever's profile here. On a team who's had as many issues in the bullpen this year, it's enough to give Leigh just enough light at the end of the tunnel that he could find his was to Chicago this summer. 3b. Matt Shaw: 81 wR+C, 16,7 K%, 20.8 BB%: The last few weeks haven't been the best for the first round pick, but there have been some encouraging signs that he might be coming out of this soon as Shaw is starting to walk a lot and we can see players progress from strike-zone-command to damage quickly (I.E. Christopher Morel over the last week+). Concerning however...Shaw only has one double on the year. South Bend Cubs (4-2) South Bend finally had a nice week as they took four games against the Lansing Lugnuts climbing out of last place in the Midwest League Western division. South Bend can continue to climb the divisional ladder as Cedar Rapids visits South Bend for a six game tilt this week. SP, Brady McCullough: 4 IP, 2 K, 1 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: The right hander has had a pretty solid season so far in South Bend, dropping his ERA to under 2.00 and he's yet to surrender a home run. I'd like to see some more strikeouts, but he's probably on the radar for a mid-season bump to Tennessee at any time. SP, Will Sanders: 3.2 IP, 5 K, 1 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: A second good start for Sanders in a row as he continues to ramp up in pitch count and length. We're finally starting to see the advanced arm begin to flash reasons why the Cubs took him in the '24 draft. Like McCullough, he too could make his way to Tennessee mid-season. 2b, Pedro Ramirez: 243 wRC+, 3.6 K%, 3.6 BB%, 1 2b, 2 HR: A huge week for the infielder and we really could be on the border of a major breakout for the 20 year old. Now up to a 150 wRC+ on the year, the last hurdle to clear is to show some added power, which he did this week. Pedro has been a bright spot on a weak South Bend team all year. OF, Brett Bateman: 229 wRC+, 8.3 K%, 20.8 BB%, 2 2b: I need to see more power before I officially jump on the Bateman hype train, but he's absolutely making short work of South Bend. The reality of senior-signs in the first-10 rounds is that many of them are penny-pinchers so getting any production is good. Bateman probably joins Tennessee at some point this season and I'm going to be curious if his lack of power will hold him back or a strong hit-tool will allow him to be a high average OF'er in a Steven Kwan mold. Myrtle Beach Pelicans (3-3) The Pelicans were able to salvage a split series this week against Lynchburg after they dropped three straight midweek. A second straight road series against the 12-15 Salem Red Sox is on tap this weekend as the Pelicans look to right the ship SS, Cristian Hernandez: 167 wRC+, 30.4 K%, 8.7 BB%: Hernandez continues to hit well in Myrtle this season there's little denying it. We're not on full on breakout yet considering his repeater nature, but the longer this goes the more confidence I have that we're on that path. OF, Alfonsin Rosario: 26 wRC+, 45 K%, 5 BB%, 1 2b: The reality with Rosario is that despite being a bit older at 19, he remains very raw. The power is clearly there, with four of his eight hits being for extra bases. With that said, there's clearly a learning curve in terms of contact rate, as Rosario remains a major strikeout threat every time he walks into the box. It's likely going to be an up and down ride for Rosario but the hope is that the power can eventually outweigh the strikeouts and there's plenty of time for that to occur. Just be patient. SP, Juan Bello: 3 IP, 3 K, 4 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: A not-so-great start for the breakout pitcher, as Bello struggled with control. Bello's been one of the more fun follows in Low-A this year, so despite the rough outing, I'm not out on him. He even showed off some Nester-Cortes-esque leg movement pre-pitch a few times. Regardless of the walks, Bello is a fun follow right now. View full article

This feels like the most likely scenario, IMO. Akin to Hendricks.

I love Eno so I'm glad to see this.

Both. Either, really. I think it's interesting that we've seen a reoccurring pattern that players head to Iowa and their velo drops. This hasn't been something we've seen in the past, but something that feels like it's happening specifically now. The "why" could be either of those things, or it could be coincidence. But I've noticed what seems like a slight pattern occurring and it's certainly got my ears perked.

So, one thing i find interesting about the Horton velocity thing: 1. Keegan Thompson in Triple-A sees a velo decrease. Comes to MLB...velo back. 2. Steele rehab velo was down. 3. Horton shows up in Iowa. Velo is down. I'm not saying they're connected, just something interesting.

Feels that way. Barring injury, I have a sneaking suspicion this will be the last time we see Matt Mervis in a Chicago Cubs uniform.

Mastobunoi up. Mervis down.

We. Have. Better. Ways. To. Evaluate. Players. C'mon, man. Just like Peanut *you* know this. He's literally *not* average. League Average LF 2022: 101 wRC+ League Average LF 2023: 100 wRC+ Happ over those years: 120 wRC+, 118 wRC+ He's roughly 20% better than average. So no. He's not just a guy.

While not untrue, it also feels disingenuous to the discussion to use the last calendar year, as it conveniently replaces Happ's best month (April, 2023 - 135 wRC+) with his worst month (April 2024 - 92 wRC+) in that span. Many players are going to look far worse when you do that. It's just a standard arbitrary end point. When we just include last April in the data set, he jumps to 3.2 fWAR over that span, tied with Paul Goldschmidt and Pete Alonso, and just .2 fWAR shy of Arenado. That too is an example of arbitrary end points. Regardless, since Iann Happ worked on his plate approach (2022) he's been a very good performer. Star? No. But there is a disconnect at times between how pretty good Happ has been and how fans perceive him (as being a JAG) which just hasn't been supported by the data. As I stated, I get it, he's not sexy, he's just a solid player, and I think that's where the disconnect comes in. He doesn't really need to go on a massive surge, as well. He didn't have a single month last year under 100 wRC+ In 2022, he had three and had three months over 130 wRC+. He's almost assuredly going to end up around a 120 wRC+ if he stays healthy. Put up a 120 wRC+ month and almost everything will be forgotten. He's had a tough couple of weeks. But it's probably just that...normal ebbs and flows in a baseball season that every player goes through. And I don't mean to sound like the Ian Happ Truther or defender of his honor, it just feels like the tide as turned into the wrong direction in terms of how we view Happ right now, likely due to his bad month and the Cubs, in general, poor offensive performance over the last 2-3 weeks. It's fine to point out Happ hasn't been good in April. I just don't think it should wade into hyperbolic territory where we call him "just a guy" or act like he's a bad contract.

When people post things like this, it becomes obvious they're not looking things up to either support or deny their opinion. Ian Happ, over the last two years, has been worth 6.8 fWAR. Thata good for 12th of *all* OFers in that time (qualified). 16th non-qualified. That's more than Randy Arozarena and just shy of Aldolis Garcia. That's not "just a guy". There's plenty of runway between bonafide star and JAG, and Happ easily lands the plane between those two areas. He's in the "pretty good" category. He's not special, but he's been 20% better than league average during that span offensively. I get that what Happ does doesn't *feel* special. He's a LF'er, an unsexy position defensively. He doesn't hit 35+ bombs. He's not flashy. He's just a pretty good player. But we have *got* to stop hand wringing every five seconds and calling him a JAG. You know who's a JAG? Hunter Renfroe. Alex Verdugo. Two hitters who are very average offensively and have been worth 4+ fWAR less over the same two years as Happ. That's what a JAG looks like. Happ is solidly above that group. I wish the Cubs had some more players you'd consider to be above the pretty good category, but that's not an Ian Happ issue, either. Happ, on his own, is just fine.

He's been one of the most valuable OFers in baseball the last two years, being worth 7 fWAR combined in back to back years. Take the OPS and ignore it; we know there are better ways to evaluate players. I know *you* know that, too. As well, the Cubs arguably don't have a single bad contract right now; they're either short term deals that run out by 2026 or Dansby Swanson. That's it. The worst Cubs contracts are still more than fine contracts. He's had a weak month. Just about every player in baseball will have one, even the best of the best do. He's not a star but based on rising contracts, being a $20m PF'er doesn't mean you have to be a star any more. By the end of the season, it's more likely than not he'll be close to the 120 wRC+ hitter has been the last two seasons. There's little reason to overreact.

Honestly, had Caissie been on the 40-man...I think the Cubs may have gone with him based on his form over PCA. They clearly aren't scared to call guys up and throw them in the deep end a bit (I.E. Brown). Being he's not 40-man'd it was an easy call. And good on PCA he's looked far better, so it's probably been the right call ultimately.

Many of the Cubs best prospects had really solid starts to their 2024 campaign. Which one of them stood out over the rest? Image courtesy of Tennessee Smokies April is always a fun month and full of hope. For the Cubs, it also saw the promotion of some of it's biggest name prospects. Luckily for the Cubs, their farm system is stacked with interesting prospects to follow. Also luckily for the Cubs, many of their best prospects had big first months of the season. Honorable Mentions 3B Matt Shaw: 150 wRC+, 25.3 K%, 16 BB%, 1 3B, 3 HR: Okay, his last few weeks have been lackluster, but also highlights how torrid of a start he got off to. It was an imbalanced month, but his incredible walk rate (a new plate approach seems to be in the works) and a 150 wRC+ in Double-A is going to get you landed as an honorable mention regardless. If his month had been more consistent, he'd be much, much higher. OF Kevin Alcantara: 113 wRC+, 26 K%, 5 BB%, 2B, 4 HR: `Alcantara is the anti-Shaw, starting his season off with 10 straight hitless games. Since then, he's posted a 228 wRC+, with eight extra-base hits, a Strikeout Rate under 20% and is absolutely crushing the baseball. The overall line isn't good enough to get onto the podium for April, but he belongs in the conversation based on his last two weeks. IF Luis Vazquez: 142 wRC+, 22 K%, 8 BB%, 5 2B, 3 HR: Man, it's rough to have to relegate the Iowa Cubs shortstop to the honorable mentions category, but I just can't find a way to justify him higher. Regardless, Luis absolutely crushed April, and at some point, the Cubs may have to ask themselves if he can give them more with the bat than Nick Madrigal can. OF Owen Caissie: 129 wRC+, 30.9 K%, 17.3 BB%, 8 2B, 1 HR: It's just a matter of times the doubles turn into home runs for the slugging outfielder. The K's are a bit elevated but not horrible for his age or for his first run at Triple-A. This has been one of his better starts, and if he continues to do what he's done at the previous levels - which is turn on the jets - come June...watch out. April's Top 3 Cubs Minor League Hitters of the Month #3 - 2B James Triantos: 142 wRC+, 10 K%, 6.3 BB%, 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR Triantos absolutely went bonkers this month in Tennessee. He's getting the edge on a few of the above players (a common theme of the top-3) due to age and context: he's just 21 years old and just starting his time in Tennessee at Double-A. We can debate his defensive ability and position, but this exercise is all about the bat. With eight extra base hits, he's showing more signs of power without losing an inch of contact ability. #2 - SS Jefferson Rojas: 126 wRC+, 18.2 K%, 8 BB%, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR Did players have better overall lines than Rojas who are currently sitting in the Honorable Mentions category? Yes, they did. None of them, however, turned 18-years-old this month, and playing at High-A and that gives Rojas the edge in my book. This is as good of an April offensively you could have drawn up for the shortstop. Continuing to sport a low strikeout rate at more advanced levels fills me with some hope that this is truly a breakout prospect with star potential. With that said, being 18 years old at High-A just isn't enough to topple... April's Cubs Minor League Hitter of the Month: C Moises Ballesteros, C : 184 wRC+, 13.8 K%, 15.5 BB%, 2 2B, 3 HR A 184 wRC+ will do it. The reality is that this wasn't even close, Big Mo absolutely ran away with this month's awards. Let's put it this way: a 184 wRC+ with a strikeout to walk ratio in favor of the walks is the type of thing I write up for my "hot or not" weekly section, not for 58 plate appearances spanning a month. This is ridiculous. And to keep the theme of the month here; he's only 20 years old. and in his first taste of Tennessee. Tons has been made about his ability or inability to stick at catcher, but if he's going to hit like this...he can be a DH and we'll all get on with our lives. Have yourself a month, Mo! View full article

So what you're saying is "I want more power rankings".

Tonight is a good reminder the next time we blow a game...they go both ways. But I'll take it!

Just how you draw it up.

Yeah, there's a bit of sadness when it comes to Madrigal's upside at this point and what our "best case" is with his bat. It's hard to defend him as a useful long term piece at this point...more or less biding his time until the Cubs decide it's time to upgrade that slot via trade or prospect promotion,

That's a good idea. A "This Week in the Cubs Offseason" type thing? Recap rumors and transactions? I'm sure one of us writers can do it. Hell, probably something I could do.

On the Madrigal debate as a whole: I think I'm fine going in any direction with Mastro/Madrigal/Vazquez. I think you can make an argument for any of them: Madrigal: Allows you to let Vazquez stay in Triple-A and develop. Gives you consistent contact off the bench. Good glove, capable of playing 2b and 3b, and his .200 BABIP will simply improve naturally Mastrobuoni: Gives you a left handed hitter, had a 100 wRC+ in a decent sample size at the end of last year. Can offer some OF versatility if you want it. Likely not a bench killer with as little as he plays. Vazquez: Capable of playing SS, something neither of the other two are capable of. Possible his bat is a step up from both and could give the Cubs more options for resting guys like Hoerner/Swanson that they don't have the same luxury with the former two. Has been hitting out of his mind at Triple-A It's still early enough in the season that even if you think Vazquez is the bang-on best option (and I don't really think that) his development still trumps the marginal benefit as the 26th man. In the even of an injury in the case of Hoerner/Swanson I'd probably turn to Vazquez over the other two, but as 26th men? I think the former two are just fine right now. Come September/October it might make sense to elevate the latter over the other two, but that's when you're worried about your best roster and development takes a back seat for a bit.

Probably not. Bote is off the 40-man and the Cubs probably have little incentive right now to add him. Even if he's a marginal upgrade over Mastrobuoni (which I don't really think he is) you'd have to DFA someone just to get a marginal benefit for someone who's barely playing (Mastro got 13 PA's his first run). It's not worth that.