Jason Ross

Well, I don't think there's anything a GM can really do today. In many ways, June 3rd is a "lie in your bed you made" situation. The trade market isn't viable unless you're willing to overpay a bunch or you think the difference between where you are and where you want to go is a very marginal trade. Most of the Cubs errors right now cannot be fixed and are self-inflicted. The hope would be that players who are underperforming where you thought they wouldn't will come out of the slump. I don't think the answer is a lineup switch or a swap. I don't see anything in the minors capable of really coming up to fix anything today (they've kind of already gone that route due to a combination of "have to" because of injury and "maybe we'll try this..."). I think this is the team you've got right now and it probably won't be able to be fixed, changed or overly amended in the next 45 days or so.

In Willie Harris's three-plus seasons as the third base coach of the Chicago Cubs, they have been the most aggressive team in baseball at trying to score--and they've been thrown out the most often. The outs--especially a few recent ones--have earned Harris a lot of criticism. Is that fair? Image courtesy of © Melissa Tamez-USA TODAY Sports In the ninth inning of Friday's loss to the Reds, with two runners on base, Seiya Suzuki laced a double down into the well in Wrigley Field's left-field corner. Pete Crow-Armstrong scored easily, making it a one-run game. Willie Harris sent Nick Madrigal (who began the play at first base) screaming around third. Madrigal was thrown out at the plate (fairly easily), sparking hot debates online about whether it was the right send or not. I'm here to defend Harris. Before I get too deep into this, I think I should own up to something: I already have a predisposition for sending guys around third. I've run my adult league team for a decade, and I rarely trust an adult infielder or outfielder to throw a perfect strike to the plate. Considering my team isn't good enough normally not to take every chance we get to score, I wave guys home like crazy. And the results have been mixed: a bunch of them got thrown out. Much like I shouldn't trust an adult outfielder to throw a strike, maybe I shouldn't trust the knees of the 36-year-old third baseman I have rounding the bag, either. All of this is to say that I know my blind spots and my personal biases going into this. The good news for me and my predisposition is that, when it comes to the belief that you should be sending guys home as often as you can, I'm not alone. Russell Carleton, an author of multiple books on baseball and a writer for Baseball Prospectus, is (at least) on that island with me. In his book "The Shift," the author spends a decent amount of time examining the 2014 non-send of Alex Gordon, which would eventually result in the defeat of the Kansas City Royals by the San Francisco Giants. "I think that all third-base coaches should be fired and replaced with a sign on a stick that points to the left and says "RUN!"," Carleton wrote in that section. He then used charts, figures and data (which I will be relying on) to argue that third-base coaches, essentially, should be waving as many guys home as they can. If Carleton and I are on an island in this belief, we have at least one more member in our little tribe: Harris. Much has been made about a tweet that was published after the game by twitter/X user Biblical Losses that highlights just how many runners the Cubs have had thrown out at home over Harris's tenure as the Cubs' third-base-coach. The tweet points out that in 2022, 2023, and 2024 (so far) the Cubs lead the league in runners thrown out at home, and since 2021 (Harris's first year with the Cubs), the team has had 74 instances of a runner being thrown out at home. On the surface, that number sounds bad, almost as if the Cubs have thrown away 74 runs over that span. But what if I told you context matters and that Willie Harris is doing the right thing? The first thing we should do is zoom out...way, way out. For example, one thing that's probably very important to point out is that, since 2021, the Chicago Cubs have been one of the best baserunning teams in baseball. Over that span, they rank eighth in total BsR value, per FanGraphs. It should also be noted that as the Cubs' overall talent level on the roster has increased, their baserunning value has increased, going from the 17th-best team ('21), to the fourth-best team ('22), to the eighth-best team ('23 and '24). All of that cannot be laid on the feet of Willie Harris--this takes into account many things that Harris cannot influence--but clearly, whatever he's doing over at third isn't killing the team on the whole. But what about those pesky 74 outs at the plate? Now is probably the time to talk about the success percentage of sending runners, and the number is, at least in my humble opinion, shockingly high. Using data provided from "The Shift", it almost doesn't matter what the situation is, how far the ball was hit, and everything in between; the success rate of sending a player home never dips under 94.4% (which, conveniently for this study, is the success rate of sending someone first to home on a double). That doesn't mean every send would have a success rate of 94.4% or better, if you sent a catcher from first to home on a routine single to left field, we know he doesn't have even a 5% chance to make it. Carleton makes sure to say that "coaches are only sending the runners who they are pretty sure will make it," so this is a data set that is clearly going to be biased, in that it's generally gauging successes to begin with. Regardless, these numbers go to show that when coaches decide to press that button, they're almost always right to do so. This, then, brings us back to Mr. Harris and his success rate. From 2021 to 2024, the Cubs have scored successfully on 95% of first-to-home sends. Over that span, the league has seen a success rate of 94.1%, which is right in the ballpark of the data provided by Carleton a fistful of years ago. This means that Harris is above the league average. What separates Harris, however, is just how aggressive he is, as the Cubs have the second-highest send rate, just behind the Tigers. Doing some very quick math, the Cubs have sent a runner from first to home three more times over that span than the league-average team. They also are successful 95% of the time; that means they've scored roughly three more runs than should have been expected. On the other side of the ledger, the Cubs have had only six runners thrown out at home going first to home over that span, which is actually one fewer than the league average. Harris's philosophy is coming out on top here, both on success rate and not getting guys thrown out (that overall number be damned). Where Harris seems to lose some ground is in second-to-home sends. For whatever reason, the Cubs are far less aggressive on second-to-home sends, as they rank just 23rd in send percentage in this situation, well below the league average. On top of that, the Cubs rank just 20th in second-to-home success rates, almost .5% below average. If there's a positive; the league averages 11.9 outs from second to home, and the Cubs have had 12 of these. So, despite the averages looking low, the Cubs are kind of carbon-neutral here. Looking at things as a whole, Harris is a net positive, not a net negative like "leading the league in outs at home" would make it sound. it's probably worthwhile to look at some of the specific sends of which Harris has been a part. The first one I'd like to explore dates back to Jun. 15, 2021. The highly mediocre Chicago Cubs are visiting the New York Mets. In the ninth inning, with one out, down by one and a runner on first, Cubs second baseman Eric Sogard (remember when he was starting for the Cubs?) laced a hit into right-center. Jake Marisnick (remember when he was starting for the Cubs?) is easily nailed at home from a relay starting with Kevin Pillar and assisted by infielder Luis Guillorme. azFMQmRfVjBZQUhRPT1fVlZkWlV3VlhWVmNBRGdjRVV3QUFBQVJmQUFOUVcxSUFWZ2RVVVFjQ0JnQlVWVllG.mp4 On the surface, it looks like a bad send, because of how soundly the ball beats Marisnick to the plate. But adding some context probably helps explain the situation: the hitter who was due up next was groundball machine Jason Heyward (sporting a 50% ground ball rate on the season); it's unlikely Heyward hits the game-tying sacrifice fly. On the mound was Seth Lugo: a pitcher who had a fairly low ground ball rate on the season, but traditionally, got roughly 45% of ground balls over the course of his career at the time. As well, the Mets' second baseman and relay man, was Guillorme, whose arm strength was in the 26th percentile on the season. Marisnick, who was tearing past third base on his way to score, on the season, was in the 90th percentile for sprint speed. Now, add it all up. Was that really as bad of a send as the video makes it seem? I don't think so. For a different result (but in a similar situation), let's look at a game from early last season. The Chicago Cubs are trailing the Miami Marlins 2-0 at home, entering the ninth inning. Cody Bellinger, with Ian Happ on first base, rips a Sandy Alcántara pitch into left-center, where Bryan De La Cruz tracks the baseball down. De La Cruz, using his above-average sprint speed (59th percentile) and above-average arm (68th percentile) gets the baseball to shortstop Jon Berti. Berti, doing everything he can with his 21st-percentile arm strength, throws the ball home, hoping to gun down Ian Happ and his 60th-percentile sprint speed, with the ball beating Happ but the throw being offline. Happ scores. ZFpMN0tfWGw0TUFRPT1fQUFCVkFRY05VUU1BVzFNRkFBQUFDQUVFQUZoWEJsQUFCUUFBVmdWVFZRdFVCUXBR.mp4 Bellinger would score on a Hoerner single, and the Cubs would go into extra innings (where, full disclosure, they lost, 5-4). This situation was shockingly similar to the previous one, and Harris's aggressiveness paid off big-time. Sure, Happ would have scored from third on Hoerner's single, but maybe Bellinger wouldn't have scored from second. Or maybe the pitches to Hoerner would have been different, and he never would have gotten that hit. What we can say for sure is this: the send was successful, and helped the Cubs extend the game. So, that brings us to Friday afternoon. Harris sent Madrigal and his 38th-percentile speed around third base from first, trying to tie the game in the ninth inning. Cody Bellinger and his 54% fly-ball rate waited on deck. The Reds' left fielder, Spencer Steer, used his 82nd-percentile arm to get the ball to Elly De La Cruz's 92nd-percentile arm in shallow left field. Two perfect throws created a situation in which Madrigal was thrown out at home, and the Cubs eventually lost the game by one run. Maybe Harris shouldn't have sent Madrigal: he's not particularly fast. Maybe it looks a little worse because Steer and De La Cruz are both plus throwers. But we also know this: when Harris starts waving guys home from first, he's successful 95% of the time, despite being the second-most aggressive sender in the league. All it took was one throw offline, such as what happened in the Marlins' example, and the game is tied. De La Cruz, as well, was tasked with throwing a perfect strike from well outside of the infield--not a particularly easy ask, regardless of where his arm strength places him amongst his peers. In the moment, it's hard to blame Harris who has a ton of success. Let the 74 outs go. You're going to have more outs when you create more situations, and Harris creates more of these than almost anyone. Despite that, he's almost always right. It's easy to Monday-morning-quarterback this to death, but Harris's résumé speaks for itself, and I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt on the choice. If Madrigal scored, we'd all be calling him a genius, and the overall data would have supported his choice. In the end, I think there's enough information here to support the decision to Willie Harris' aggressive nature. Yes, sometimes Nick Madrigal or Jake Marisnick are going to get hosed at home. Sometimes the throws are perfect, the runner just isn't fast enough, and you get caught out. But 95 out of 100 times, Willie Harris has been right to wave those arms in these exact types of situations. The Cubs, as well, are a team who needs to win on the margins, so being above-average here is probably important to the team. The next time the Cubs have a player attempting to score from first, I hope Harris's aggressive nature continues and, forgive me for speaking for Russell Carleton here, but I think both myself and Russell would be yelling "GO!" from our couches as well, watching Wavin' Willie work. What do you think of Cubs' third base coach Willie Harris? Do you think he should have held up Nick Madrigal? Or do you think he needs to tone down the sends? Let us know in the comment section below. View full article

Yep. I think he's a wonderful hitter. The Cubs do love their models...

I did miss that. I saw Almonte was playing catch as of the 21st so still think he could be back by July 1st. Bummer on Merryweather. Life's been pretty busy lately so I've been missing a bunch.

I want the Cubs to find a way to get Ryan Waldschimdt from Kentucky. I *love* his bat profile: there's a super simple motion with a great approach. He smashed SEC competition this year and the power is flashing more and more: went 109 mph and 440 off the bat in pouring rain yesterday in the college WS Regionals. He's fast and there's enough athleticism he can handle CF if someone can teach it to him. He's very new to the OF and has been playing LF for Kentucky. Maybe I wouldn't take him fourteenth (though in this draft, I'm not sure the difference between 14 and 40 matters a huge ton, for example) but he's a guy I'd want to see what he could do with a strong developmental team. Whomever drafts him, I think, will be quite happy.

That's a move. Madrigal is terrible, so whatever, try David Bote out. I think Bote probably sucks too, but Madrigal's run his course at this stage.

I'd move Brown. I know that's going to be met with resistence, but I think it serves two purposes: 1. It saves his innings. We know he's a bit more of an issue with injuries than others due to his motion and stuff. 2. It helps the BP. Ben Brown can add something to a bullpen that has been awful. You start adding Brown, Wesneski to Lieter Jr and you begin to have a small core of reliability. Neris has been better his last 7 appearances; dropping his walk rate down to 7% over that span. If Neris can become reliable, you've got four guys. Merryweather and Almonte are maybe back by the end of the month and you might be up to five or six. Tyson Miller looks like he's reliable, so there's seven. The Cubs can start to scratch out some guys they can begin to trust. Injuries will happen, maybe Neris loses it again, or Almonte never gets healthy or something, but there's a small light at the end of the tunnel. It makes a somewhat reliable group of guys so you don't feel like you have to trade for a full need BP.

Un. Real. Moment. Holy horsefeathers.

Hope it remains "soreness" over everything. Figure as much as the Cubs will be very cautious on his return, they were probably equally as cautious last night so a slight twinge or small sore spot would probably result in a pull regardless.

I sincerely think the Cubs are tinkering and playing around here. I know people are going to look at the numbers and panic but let's not forget that this pitcher at Iowa last year: 31 K%, 15.8 BB%, 5.33 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 4.53 xFIP Now is a: 29.9 K%, 9.2 BB%, 2.72 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 1.4 fWAR pitcher in the MLB with just an offseason between the two data points. Cade Horton is showing some similar things: his K% remains very high at 26.3% but his GB% has tanked; there's something the Cubs are doing with him specifically at Triple-A. I know the balls from Double-A to Triple-A are different, as they begin using the MLB ball. I really think the Cubs use Triple-A as a "learning new stuff" level and then unleash pitchers to do what they do best again at the major league level. There's been talk of them playing with the shape of his fastball, and this could result in a change mechanically that he's working through, or a change in command/control as he's learning how his fastball moves now in terms of locating it properly. Not to say you're panicking or anything, and not to say it's not a bummer, most just saying to all...I'm not very concerned.

Just because someone isn't expected to be Yordan Alvarez with the bat does not mean all development is done. PCA showed incredibly horrible swing decisions in Triple-A prior to being called up. Now I think that a lot of that was mental; upon getting his first MLB hit the contact rate was much better. But there's still development to be done. PA'S development is more important than him being a defensive replacement right now and until the OF situation changes, that's likely the role he'd play. As we get further into the season speed/glove and maximizing every spot (think August/September) will begin to crossover and be more important, but it's not even June right now. PCA getting significant playing time and developing is more important. Don't be impatient.

Figure he is back at square one right now. It's probably 2+ weeks of a throwing program ramping him up just to pitch in games. Then a week of simulated games/ACL and then a rehab stint where he probably goes TN, then back to backs (or two of three) at Iowa. That's four weeks minimum there. If not 4.5-5. This is his spring training all over.

That is accurate. He's a -3 DRS as well. *With that said* defensive metrics require larger samples in my opinion than any other statistic and are the most prone to "outlier" seasons where a player randomly over or under performs their talent levels. My guess is he will be fine, and those numbers are things to not even be concerned about. Nico is a good defender. They'll normalize.

Wood remains a top-3 favorite player of all time for me. I adore that game. It reminds the single best performance I can recall.

Yeah, you have to feel for the guy. He was finding himself a closer of a good MLB team and that one swing may put a lot of that in jeopardy. I hope for his sake it's a real, real bad bruise and he's fine.

Good thing is you can just move him to the IL...

In a strange way, perhaps blowing the game will be good for the team (as long as they win this). They've gotten a little good luck here in extras and are scoring runs. Maybe they can stop pressing so damn much and can begin...feeling like normal. The no-hit bid couldn't help that, either. They haven't had an inning like this for a while. And a 1-0 win would not have allowed for that.

I know you do. It's just the world of what ifs allow endless unknowable answers. All we can do is accept the universe we live in. Maybe parallel land Wood won 200 games and Ben Brown got a no hitter. They're probably having more fun than us.

I sincerely feel for Megill there. What horrible luck. But maybe the Cubs can use some good luck on their part to spring board and find themselves a bit.

I feel bad for McGull, but great play Luis!

And perhaps, if Riggleman and others had taken a little more precaution, we'd have gotten a full career out of Kerry Wood instead of the protracted one we got. There's what ifs everywhere. I'd rather the Cubs be safe than chase a no-hitter. No hitters are cool, but Brown's health is more cool. If the Cubs lose this, it's less to do with Brown being pulled (he was never getting the 9th) and more to do with rest of the team. A team who is clearly struggling to win and with confidence right now.

I'm not sure why the Cubs didn't come up with this "let's just not let the other team get hits" plan earlier. Frankly, it's quite the ingenious plan. I'd suggest implementing it more often.

I would push back on the idea that the Cubs font have any impact talent. We can agree or disagree on how likely they may be to hit their ceilings, but PCA, Caissie, Alcantara, Shaw, Rojas and Horton all have impact upside. They may not be clear to you, but there are signs to suggest all have that upside. Clarity is hard, but like, no one thought Jared Jones was a clear impact prospect, for example. And let's not forget, the Cubs have gotten significant contributions from Assad, Hoerner and Steele (all drafted/signed/developed) by the Cubs. Ben Brown is on a three win pace bouncing between rotation and bullpen, too. Jordan Wicks showed good improvements as well. I think it's fair to be a bit "whelmed" right now, but I think worrying about the Cubs development of young players is something that probably goes in the face of recent years. Maybe no one wins an MVP award, but the Cubs should have quality contributions from the farm in the next few seasons assuming they don't deal it all away. They have too many bullets to not find an all star or two in that group.

Hey friends! I'm almost though my busy time. So, so close to the light at the end of the tunnel. Good news: it's never as bad as it feels when you're in the thick of it. The Chicago Cubs will be alright in a few days or weeks. We have a long time to go.