Jason Ross
North Side Contributor-
Posts
6,574 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
49
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Jason Ross
-
Is his command better, though? The 18.1 IP on Brown suggest that that is a very shifting landscape. We're only 18.1 IP, but so far, Ben Brown has a 65.5% strike% compared to league average of 63.7%. This is up over 5% than his strike% in Triple-A last year, a marked improvement. In all appearances so far in 2024, Wesneski has a strike% of 63.5%. Last year, Wesneski threw 62.3% of his pitches for strikes. Wesneski in 2022 threw 65.5% of his pitches for strikes which is conveniently exactly where Brown is in 2024. Brown has to maintain the improved strike throwing, but it doesn't seem so cut and dry that Wesneski is better command wise when I take all of the data into account. It's not just throwing strikes, but looking at their zone command, I think it's pretty close, too. Brown's doing well in terms of where to attack, and I think Wesneski, in 2024, looks much more like 2022 in terms of zone command. With that said, we're a year removed from pretty rough in-zone fastball command from Hayden. Generally speaking, I think we're in a "wait and see" holding pattern on the command between the two of them more so than anything definitive. You can choose to see that differently, but I just don't see much in the current data set that I see to be anywhere else than "wait and see". This could all change if Brown regresses back to 2024 Triple-A levels of wild, but right now, there's an upward trend on his command and I think that's quite the important data point for a young pitcher. Regardless, you seem to have your mind set on this and differences of opinions is the flavor of life. With that said, I'll leave this as my last thoughts on the situation: when the Chicago Cubs had the opportunity to chose between Brown and Wesneski this year, they've chosen the former, themselves. In the end, I think it's fair to like one over the other, but I also don't agree with the idea that Brown's upside has been overblown. He's a unique arm with unicorn type qualities in terms of breaking ball and how it meshes with the fastball. That constitutes excitement on the upside, and many of very smart people have said as such. I think in the end I see both in the bullpen long-term, and why I rate Brown higher in ceiling is the stuff is just...better. Paired with a "wait and see" on how both continue along their path of strike throwing and zone-command as well. Wesneski is likely to have a more durable career, and in the end, might be more valuable, but I think the ceiling of Ben Brown has been appropriately rated. He's far more risk and reward. I'm excited both are having successful 2024's so far, hope Brown's strike% increase is a sign of things to come, and hope that Wesneski forces the issue to join the Cubs in a more permanent role later this summer as well; both should be weapons. If we're having this level of discussion about arms...it only means good things for the organization.
- 14 replies
-
- craig counsell
- jordan wicks
- (and 5 more)
-
I'm not sure that's true. Here is where Brown throws his curveball vs his fastball: Brown is working upper third a ton with that fastball while using the curveball as a chase/whiff pitch. As Matt Trueblood explained the other say, based on the tilt and the way he tunnels, this is an effective two pitch combination. Nothing I see equates to chucking it down the middle. For example, compare Brown's fastball usage to Shota Imanaga, who as well, is working upper third and you'll see, there's a lot of overlap. You can say Shota's shown better command and consistency, and that's probably right, but I think the point I'm making is that Brown isn't just mid-midding his fastball and there's a similar plan of attack : It's fair to wonder about injury with Brown, but I don't think that takes away from his ceiling. When we're talking ceiling we're talking generally the types of best-case outcomes. Ceiling wise, Brown doesn't blow out his arm again, or if he does, it's like 6-7 years in the making. That feels more like a floor argument, or "realistic" argument, if we want to move even into that territory. Brown does have some concerning things that make you think his elbow is far more likely to blow out than Wesneski. And as much as we want to say Wesneski is a pitch away from something, he was a pitch away last year and there doesn't appear to be anything moving there. He didn't develop one last year, and so far on the year he's thrown 12 changeups on the season in all appearances (and just two in his MLB appearance) and zero split fingers. It doesn't look like that is coming anytime soon. If we're being real, Brown's made more progress seemingly with the command than Wesneski has with the third viable pitch to get lefties. Should also be noted: both struggle with command. Wesneski completely lost the fastball command at times last year in the zone and gave up big contact. His fastball gave up an xwOBA of .423 and an actual wOBA of .423 as well. So it's not like Wesneski is the command champion. His consistency was a knock on him dating back to his time in the Yankees system. As it stands, Brown's stuff advantage (fastball velocity, the way it plays off the curve and the curveball in general) gives him a ceiling advantage in almost any role. The math could change with a third pitch from Wesneski or a drop in command from Brown,. As well, I think it's super fair to be injury concious, I just wouldn't factor that into ceiling which was the wording of the original hot take. Lastly, none of this should read I don't like Hayden; I actually quite like Wesneski. Nor should it read that Wesneski can't have the better career. But if we're talking which player has the best ceiling...it has to be Brown. Even if it's more unlikely he reaches his ceiling for many of the things you pointed out.
- 14 replies
-
- 1
-
-
- craig counsell
- jordan wicks
- (and 5 more)
-
Too hot of a take right now. Wesneski has severe limitations against LHH that Brown doesn't seem to have based on pitch mix as it stands *today*. Brown has a better breaking ball (his curveball) and would project better as a SP as a ceiling and a leverage reliever. Brown does have some command/control questions (not suggesting he's a finished product here) he needs to continue to answer, but has thus far done that in 2024 at the MLB level. Brown's command/control has made more progress than Wesneski in developing a new pitch, so while we can't say he won't, Brown's been making more progress. I don't want anyone to read this like I don't like Wesneski, or even that Brown will be the better option long term, but I think if we're talking ceiling one has a clear advantage over the other. In a perfect world the Cubs get useful MLB contributions from both. But I think Wesneski looks more like a multi-inning reliever/RHH neutralizer where as Brown could legitimately be an 8th/9th inning guy if he doesn't end up as a mid-rotation SP. Perhaps Brown's command/control limits him from the rotation, or he can't ever settle in as a leverage guy, but Brown's ability to likely get both handed hitters out more consistently than Wesneski is going to always give him a leg up in potential.
- 14 replies
-
- craig counsell
- jordan wicks
- (and 5 more)
-
Finally. He's been a disappointment dating back to last year. Especially coming out of the draft, this felt like a pick the Cubs were kind of high on and it felt like they thought they had a steal on hand. Need more than a week, but it'd be nice to get him going and start to see the promise.
- 6 replies
-
- kevin alcantara
- jefferson rojas
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
Trice is also a 21 year old who played in the ACC. Look, I'm not writing him off in any way shape or form, we're talking April 22nd. But he has a K% touching 42% right now in Myrtle Beach. That's just a brutal run of games for him, ballpark be damned, because that's on him more so than a ballpark or the weather at this level. So far in just complex league and Low-A he's got a total of 34 K's in roughly 100 PAs. Gotta' call a spade a spade here; rough start for him. The .130 ISO isn't the worst thing, ballpark included, but when you couple it wit the K%...you kind of need to hit for power if you're going to strike out like that. 4 XBH in half a month so far probably isn't enough. Good news: He's got under 100 PA's professional! Last week, Kevin Alcantara had 0 hits. Now he has 10, and a wRC+ of 95 because of like, six good game. Carter just needs to make contact for like, a good 10 stretch of games and we can all put the strike out issues behind us. It'd make the .130 ISO better, too. More contact will probably result in more power as well! A good reminder: cold update doesn't mean I think he sucks...it just means he had a week that wasn't good. Sadly, Trice just hasn't had it yet. I'm still super rooting for him, his bat could be interesting at a position that doesn't usually hit well.
- 6 replies
-
- kevin alcantara
- jefferson rojas
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
A handful of injuries on the Chicago Cubs have seen a few prospects graduate to the major-league team. With Michael Busch, Alexander Canario and Ben Brown all having success at the MLB level, who had a good week down on the farm? Image courtesy of © Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK The Cubs have been cultivating their farm system over the last handful of years, and it's a good thing. As injuries to important players (such as Seiya Suzuki, Justin Steele, Ian Happ, Julian Merryweather, and Jameson Taillon) pile up, the MLB side of things has gotten a chance to see the future. As the summer goes on, we're likely to see more and more of the young guns make their way up. How did this week on the farm go for those with bright futures? Iowa Cubs (4-2) The Iowa Cubs have been the biggest contributor to the MLB injury woes, but that doesn't seem to be slowing them down, as they took four of six this weekend against the Louisville Bats. Their only blemishes came in a doubleheader sweep. Iowa heads out onto the road to Buffalo over the next week, and hopefully, the weather will play nice. 🔥BJ Murray: 233 wRC+, 16 K%, 28 BB%, 1 2b., 1 HR: Good to see Murray finally start getting hot after a bit of a tough start at the Triple-A level. The switch-hitter turned it on this week, walking more than he struck out and launching a home run as well. This bodes well for the former Florida Atlantic Owl, as the Cubs are seeing the benefits of having a deep farm right now. Murray could be in line for a call-up later this summer, so getting acclimated in Triple-A will be a big step forward for him. 🔥Porter Hodge: 4 IP, 37.5 K%, 6.3 BB%, 2 R, 2 ER: Hodge is looking like the next to be called up for an audition in the Cubs bullpen. I highlighted Hodge earlier this offseason as someone with the kind of stuff to make an MLB Impact, and with his increased strike-throwing prowess this season, Hodge looks to be fulfilling that promise. The Cubs bullpen has been depleted by injuries, and Hodge (being on the 40-man roster already) could be in Chicago sooner than you realize. 🔥Owen Caissie: 156 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 14.8 BB%, 2 2b, 1 3b, 1 HR: The slugging outfielder had a nice week, cutting down on the strikeouts and hitting four extra-base hits. Pitchers have essentially given him the Barry Bonds treatment, refusing to throw him strikes. Caissie, perhaps keen on this, seemed to punish pitchers. Caissie is looking more and more like he could get an MLB call-up sooner than even I thought he would; it wouldn't be shocking to see him in Wrigley before the trade deadline. 🥶Pete Crow-Armstrong: 65 wRC+, 25 K%, 3.6 BB%, 1 HR, 3 2b: The power output of four extra-base hits here feels good and signals that perhaps the centerfielder is beginning to settle in. The wRC+ is low, but so is the .222 BABIP this week. PCA is starting to look a little less like he's swinging wildly and a little more composed. With injuries to the Cubs outfield (a recurring theme right now), a heater from the left-handed swinging PCA could see him take an injury spot if Ian Happ misses significant time. Tennessee Smokies (4-2) The Smokies have become must-watch baseball--at least for the next few weeks, before a few of these names get promoted. Winning four of six against the Montgomery Biscuits this week, the Smokies make their way down to Rocket City for a six-game set. The Smokies took two of three from Rocket City to open up the season, so hopefully the good times will continue to roll. 🔥Cade Horton: 8 IP, 28.,6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 1 R, 1 ER: A two-start week for the right-hander saw Horton once again dominate Double-A hitters. The home run given up by Horton was only the second earned run he'd surrendered all season. Horton once again struck out a batter per inning while limiting walks. He's probably on a path to Iowa shortly. Maybe two more Double-A starts? 🔥Kevin Alcantara: 299 wRC+, 13.6 K%, 4.5 BB%, 1 2b, 2 HR: Alcántara entered the week hitless on the season; he exited the week with 10 knocks. The Jaguar got back on track in a huge way and raised his season wRC+ to 95. Alcántara has the kind of stuff to go on a heater and go on one quick. Impressive way to get off the ropes; let's hope this kind of hitting continues. 🥶Matt Shaw: 89 wRC+, 20 K%, 20 BB%: This is what a "bad" week for Matt Shaw looks like at the Double-A level right now: a roughly 90 wRC+ where he walks as much as he strikes out and has a BABIP in the .260s. For most, that's not enough to get a "cold" sticker, but for Shaw, who's abused Double-A pitching to this point, it qualifies. I expect he'll go bonkers again shortly. 🥶Brandon Birdsell: 3.1 IP, 9.5 K%, 14.3 BB%, 9 R, 5 ER: A second bad start of the year for Birdsell. Believed to be on a fast track to Iowa, it looks like he's going to have to continue to do some work at Tennessee right now. Walking more than striking out is usually a recipe for disaster. Hopefully, after a few rocky starts, the right-hander settles in; Iowa could use some depth in the rotation. South Bend Cubs (2-5) Yeesh. This was just a bad week all around for South Bend, punctuated with a 19-4 drubbing on April 17th. Hopefully, the tide begins to turn for the 4-11 South Bend Cubs, as they head home to face Quad Cities this week. 🔥Jefferson Rojas: 127 wRC+, 12.5 K%, 4.2 BB%, 2 2b: Regardless of the affiliate's record right now, not an ounce of blame can be placed on Rojas's bat. He did make another error this week, but he's been 38% better than league average and he's still not even 19 years old. While Rojas may eventually have to slide to third base, the Cubs may have their next star prospect. 🔥Rafael Morel: 187 wRC+, 25 K% 12.5 BB%, 1 2b: Morel only played three times this week, but did some damage. The center fielder is showing little power, but a lot of bat-to-ball skills. The hope is that the power will come, but he's done well on the season so far. Being that he's 22, it wouldn't be shocking to see him in Tennessee at some point if things keep going well. 🥶Will Sanders: 1.2 IP, 18.2 K%, 18.2 BB%, 6 R, 6 ER: The 2023 mid-round draft selection has struggled through his first two professional starts. It was Sanders who started the 15-run loss, and he couldn't make it out of the second. The entire loss wasn't on him, but you're going to land on this list when you're the beginning of that kind of game. Hopefully, the former Gamecock begins to settle in and find his groove; he had some pre-season hype last year as a back-end first or second-round selection, and seeing that upside from him again would be great. 🥶Ed Howard: 6 wRC+, 25 K%, 25 BB%: I don't think we're ever going to get to see what the former 2020 first-round pick once had to offer, sadly. A devastating hip injury seems to have sapped any explosiveness left in the Chicagoland native's game. I know he'll get the label of a "bust," but I just don't think he ever got a fair shake. He was aggressively promoted after a year with, essentially, no competitive baseball, was then subsequently injured, and has never looked right. I hope in a week or two I look back at this and feel stupid (lookin' at you, Keegan Thompson) but it doesn't feel like there's much left in the tank here. Myrtle Beach Pelicans (2-3) Another rain-shortened week for the Pelicans, who managed to win two of five this weekend against the visiting Kannapolis Cannon Ballers. With a handful of interesting players off to good starts in extended spring training (Alfonsin Rosario, for example) and with Derniche Valdez off the restricted list, the Myrtle Beach Pelicans will likely get reinforcements over the next month or so. Myrtle Beach has yet to take a series, and will look to do so as they visit Lynchburg starting on Tuesday. 🔥Christopher Paciolla: 131 wRC+. 26.1 K%, 17.4 BB%, 2 2b: A much better week for Paciolla, and hopefully a sign of good things to come. With more walks and some doubles, the hope here is that the infielder finds his stride. The Cubs were reportedly pretty high on his potential coming into the 2022 Draft, so it'd be nice for him and the Pelicans if he can get going. 🤷♂️Luis Rujano: 2.1 IP, 50 K%, 10 BB%, 2 R, 2 ER: Fresh off the developmental list, Rujano showed solid control/command, but he he did get hit a bit. We can chalk this up as a tune-up, and hopefully, the 2022 pick will breeze through his next few appearances. There's a real breakout possibility with Rujano, so it'll be an interesting to follow. 🥶Mason McGwire: .2 IP, 20 K%, 60 BB%, 0 R, 0 ER: The son of the great Mark McGwire did not make it out of the first this week. While he did not give up any runs, walking three and hitting your pitch limit (the Cubs generally employ a ~30-pitch maximum per inning) before the end of the first is not a good look. Hopefully, the control comes back for him next game. 🥶Carter Trice: 19 wRC+. 41.2 K%, 17.6% BB%: Trice just hasn't started the 2024 season well. With inflated K% and a lack of power so far, the catcher for whom some had high hopes has generally underperformed so far. The good news is that the season is quite young, and all he needs is a single week like Kevin Alcántara's to start turning this around. (Is that all?) Did I forget someone on this list? Who do you think had a good week down on the farm? Let me know in the comments below! View full article
- 6 replies
-
- kevin alcantara
- jefferson rojas
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
The Cubs have been cultivating their farm system over the last handful of years, and it's a good thing. As injuries to important players (such as Seiya Suzuki, Justin Steele, Ian Happ, Julian Merryweather, and Jameson Taillon) pile up, the MLB side of things has gotten a chance to see the future. As the summer goes on, we're likely to see more and more of the young guns make their way up. How did this week on the farm go for those with bright futures? Iowa Cubs (4-2) The Iowa Cubs have been the biggest contributor to the MLB injury woes, but that doesn't seem to be slowing them down, as they took four of six this weekend against the Louisville Bats. Their only blemishes came in a doubleheader sweep. Iowa heads out onto the road to Buffalo over the next week, and hopefully, the weather will play nice. 🔥BJ Murray: 233 wRC+, 16 K%, 28 BB%, 1 2b., 1 HR: Good to see Murray finally start getting hot after a bit of a tough start at the Triple-A level. The switch-hitter turned it on this week, walking more than he struck out and launching a home run as well. This bodes well for the former Florida Atlantic Owl, as the Cubs are seeing the benefits of having a deep farm right now. Murray could be in line for a call-up later this summer, so getting acclimated in Triple-A will be a big step forward for him. 🔥Porter Hodge: 4 IP, 37.5 K%, 6.3 BB%, 2 R, 2 ER: Hodge is looking like the next to be called up for an audition in the Cubs bullpen. I highlighted Hodge earlier this offseason as someone with the kind of stuff to make an MLB Impact, and with his increased strike-throwing prowess this season, Hodge looks to be fulfilling that promise. The Cubs bullpen has been depleted by injuries, and Hodge (being on the 40-man roster already) could be in Chicago sooner than you realize. 🔥Owen Caissie: 156 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 14.8 BB%, 2 2b, 1 3b, 1 HR: The slugging outfielder had a nice week, cutting down on the strikeouts and hitting four extra-base hits. Pitchers have essentially given him the Barry Bonds treatment, refusing to throw him strikes. Caissie, perhaps keen on this, seemed to punish pitchers. Caissie is looking more and more like he could get an MLB call-up sooner than even I thought he would; it wouldn't be shocking to see him in Wrigley before the trade deadline. 🥶Pete Crow-Armstrong: 65 wRC+, 25 K%, 3.6 BB%, 1 HR, 3 2b: The power output of four extra-base hits here feels good and signals that perhaps the centerfielder is beginning to settle in. The wRC+ is low, but so is the .222 BABIP this week. PCA is starting to look a little less like he's swinging wildly and a little more composed. With injuries to the Cubs outfield (a recurring theme right now), a heater from the left-handed swinging PCA could see him take an injury spot if Ian Happ misses significant time. Tennessee Smokies (4-2) The Smokies have become must-watch baseball--at least for the next few weeks, before a few of these names get promoted. Winning four of six against the Montgomery Biscuits this week, the Smokies make their way down to Rocket City for a six-game set. The Smokies took two of three from Rocket City to open up the season, so hopefully the good times will continue to roll. 🔥Cade Horton: 8 IP, 28.,6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 1 R, 1 ER: A two-start week for the right-hander saw Horton once again dominate Double-A hitters. The home run given up by Horton was only the second earned run he'd surrendered all season. Horton once again struck out a batter per inning while limiting walks. He's probably on a path to Iowa shortly. Maybe two more Double-A starts? 🔥Kevin Alcantara: 299 wRC+, 13.6 K%, 4.5 BB%, 1 2b, 2 HR: Alcántara entered the week hitless on the season; he exited the week with 10 knocks. The Jaguar got back on track in a huge way and raised his season wRC+ to 95. Alcántara has the kind of stuff to go on a heater and go on one quick. Impressive way to get off the ropes; let's hope this kind of hitting continues. 🥶Matt Shaw: 89 wRC+, 20 K%, 20 BB%: This is what a "bad" week for Matt Shaw looks like at the Double-A level right now: a roughly 90 wRC+ where he walks as much as he strikes out and has a BABIP in the .260s. For most, that's not enough to get a "cold" sticker, but for Shaw, who's abused Double-A pitching to this point, it qualifies. I expect he'll go bonkers again shortly. 🥶Brandon Birdsell: 3.1 IP, 9.5 K%, 14.3 BB%, 9 R, 5 ER: A second bad start of the year for Birdsell. Believed to be on a fast track to Iowa, it looks like he's going to have to continue to do some work at Tennessee right now. Walking more than striking out is usually a recipe for disaster. Hopefully, after a few rocky starts, the right-hander settles in; Iowa could use some depth in the rotation. South Bend Cubs (2-5) Yeesh. This was just a bad week all around for South Bend, punctuated with a 19-4 drubbing on April 17th. Hopefully, the tide begins to turn for the 4-11 South Bend Cubs, as they head home to face Quad Cities this week. 🔥Jefferson Rojas: 127 wRC+, 12.5 K%, 4.2 BB%, 2 2b: Regardless of the affiliate's record right now, not an ounce of blame can be placed on Rojas's bat. He did make another error this week, but he's been 38% better than league average and he's still not even 19 years old. While Rojas may eventually have to slide to third base, the Cubs may have their next star prospect. 🔥Rafael Morel: 187 wRC+, 25 K% 12.5 BB%, 1 2b: Morel only played three times this week, but did some damage. The center fielder is showing little power, but a lot of bat-to-ball skills. The hope is that the power will come, but he's done well on the season so far. Being that he's 22, it wouldn't be shocking to see him in Tennessee at some point if things keep going well. 🥶Will Sanders: 1.2 IP, 18.2 K%, 18.2 BB%, 6 R, 6 ER: The 2023 mid-round draft selection has struggled through his first two professional starts. It was Sanders who started the 15-run loss, and he couldn't make it out of the second. The entire loss wasn't on him, but you're going to land on this list when you're the beginning of that kind of game. Hopefully, the former Gamecock begins to settle in and find his groove; he had some pre-season hype last year as a back-end first or second-round selection, and seeing that upside from him again would be great. 🥶Ed Howard: 6 wRC+, 25 K%, 25 BB%: I don't think we're ever going to get to see what the former 2020 first-round pick once had to offer, sadly. A devastating hip injury seems to have sapped any explosiveness left in the Chicagoland native's game. I know he'll get the label of a "bust," but I just don't think he ever got a fair shake. He was aggressively promoted after a year with, essentially, no competitive baseball, was then subsequently injured, and has never looked right. I hope in a week or two I look back at this and feel stupid (lookin' at you, Keegan Thompson) but it doesn't feel like there's much left in the tank here. Myrtle Beach Pelicans (2-3) Another rain-shortened week for the Pelicans, who managed to win two of five this weekend against the visiting Kannapolis Cannon Ballers. With a handful of interesting players off to good starts in extended spring training (Alfonsin Rosario, for example) and with Derniche Valdez off the restricted list, the Myrtle Beach Pelicans will likely get reinforcements over the next month or so. Myrtle Beach has yet to take a series, and will look to do so as they visit Lynchburg starting on Tuesday. 🔥Christopher Paciolla: 131 wRC+. 26.1 K%, 17.4 BB%, 2 2b: A much better week for Paciolla, and hopefully a sign of good things to come. With more walks and some doubles, the hope here is that the infielder finds his stride. The Cubs were reportedly pretty high on his potential coming into the 2022 Draft, so it'd be nice for him and the Pelicans if he can get going. 🤷♂️Luis Rujano: 2.1 IP, 50 K%, 10 BB%, 2 R, 2 ER: Fresh off the developmental list, Rujano showed solid control/command, but he he did get hit a bit. We can chalk this up as a tune-up, and hopefully, the 2022 pick will breeze through his next few appearances. There's a real breakout possibility with Rujano, so it'll be an interesting to follow. 🥶Mason McGwire: .2 IP, 20 K%, 60 BB%, 0 R, 0 ER: The son of the great Mark McGwire did not make it out of the first this week. While he did not give up any runs, walking three and hitting your pitch limit (the Cubs generally employ a ~30-pitch maximum per inning) before the end of the first is not a good look. Hopefully, the control comes back for him next game. 🥶Carter Trice: 19 wRC+. 41.2 K%, 17.6% BB%: Trice just hasn't started the 2024 season well. With inflated K% and a lack of power so far, the catcher for whom some had high hopes has generally underperformed so far. The good news is that the season is quite young, and all he needs is a single week like Kevin Alcántara's to start turning this around. (Is that all?) Did I forget someone on this list? Who do you think had a good week down on the farm? Let me know in the comments below!
- 6 comments
-
- 1
-
-
- kevin alcantara
- jefferson rojas
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
The one caveat I'll add to the HR aspect for Hendricks: while he's not giving up a ton of barrels his xHR on the season is 7.4 and he's given up 8 home runs. To put that in perspective, that's the worst number of any pitcher in the league currently. So while I think the barrel-per-home-runs are low, the xHR and the actual home run data is within a rounding error of each other currently. The xData suggests that while he's been a tad unlucky, he's generally getting beat by the home run within reason. None of this is to ignore the other data only that I think we're in such small sample size territory on Hendricks that the amount of bad luck you find within his data is about the amount of bad luck you want to find. You can point to different numbers to suggest both right now. Ultimately, I agree with the overall point that many have suggested that we're kind of on "last chance" for Hendricks for a while. The lack of whiffs is concerning, the statcast data is concerning, the ERA is concerning...I can't find much to point to for hope for improvement unless the control takes a leap forward, and quickly. I want him to succeed, I just don't know if he's capable of it any more.
-
I think we are getting there, yes. His stuff just isn't good enough for anything less than "very good" command. He's a hittable pitcher when he's not hitting his spots because his stuff just doesn't have the oomph. I appreciate a lot of the contact he's giving up isn't hard contact. But when you give up the amount of contact and the lack of stuff he has...we are probably wading into a territory where there's less bad luck at play here and more "this is what happens" when Hendricks is even spotty in his command. Even when it's not hard hit, there's more control coming from hitters due to the lack of stuff/velo what have you.
-
Canario has produced, but I think the issue here is the how he's produced. He's done so in a way that suggests producing right now at the MLB level is not overly likely. Consider this: the Cubs were pretty aggressive in pursuing Michael Busch. They traded two draft picks they thought of quite highly (based on slot and strategy) and who the industry thought highly of to acquire a first baseman who struggled in his first run at the MLB level. He struggled in his first run in Triple-A, too, in 2022. But the processes where there. Canario's production comes from an area of questionable process. On the same vein, I think people are kind of missing the forest through the trees on Nelson. Nelson Velazquez has a 130+ wRC+ this year, but he's done so with a .417 BABIP and a 1% contact rate. His contact rate is 58.6%. I don't think what he's doing is very repeatable. He looks a lot like...Patrick Wisdom, in fact. Someone who hits the ball super hard, but doesn't hit it very often. I think Velazquez belongs on an MLB roster and I think Wisdom has use on an MLB roster. Much like I think Canario can have use. But like Nelly, I think Canario's outlook mirrors the Wisdom route. And if the Cubs trade a Wisdom-type before finding that out...so be it. To the last point, I like to be risk-aggressive myself. I was pro-Horton in the draft, I'm pro-Horton coming up as soon as possible as examples. But I think there's risk-aggressive and risk for risk's sake. And right now, Canario feels a bit more of risk for risks' sake. The upside on Canario is probably Wisdom. So playing the OG...well...I can't find much to quibble with. I also wouldn't mind if the Cubs played Canario. And I don't mean to pick you out; I promise you I'm not. You're just making coherent, cogent arguments and it's an easy place to put my thoughts.
-
What has he done in Triple-A to force it, though? His contact rates suck and this isn't an aberration or new; it's been a consistent question on Canario his entire career. These correlate at some of the highest levels to what to expect at the MLB. He'd be among the worst contact hitters in the MLB right now. Not everyone needs to get a chance simply because they're 24. I'm not against Canario getting shots against LHP. I'd say I'm pretty negative on Wisdom's ability to handle RF; he's handled third like a DH level defender for two years. With that said, he's a more consistent MLB bat. And I say this as someone who's been pretty down on Wisdom. For years. I just don't think Wisdom over Canario is a major slight. It's very six in one hand and half a dozen in the other. I'd have little issue with them going with either.
-
Canario just isn't very exciting and I think fans like to overrate him simply because he's young. There's major issues with his profile. For example, he's sporting a 32.5% in zone whiff% this year. This is at Triple-A. Only two major league hitters have worse in-zone whiff rates on the year. The MLB average is 17.5%. We can safely assume that number is going to go up as the competition does. His overall contact% is 62.5%. League average at the MLB level is 75%. Seven hitters have a worse contact rate the the MLB level. These numbers are in small sample sizes, but he also isn't someone who's blowing down the doors of inferior pitching. Alexander Canario is younger than Mike Tauchmann. And I don't find Mike Tauchmann particularly exciting or exceptional. But just because a player is younger does not mean he has all of the potential in the world, nor does it automatically make him better. Canario has struggled to make even decent levels of contact at Triple-A so far on the year. I don't want to make it seem like he's a dead prospect or that there's no hope. Especially as a platoon partner, right now, Canario has use. But I think we're getting a little ahead of ourselves being upset the Cubs haven't prioritized Canario. They shouldn't be. He's a decent player in the organization, but he's not the kind of prospect you force into the lineup. If Canario forces his way in, great. But he needs to force it himself.
-
Minor League Discussion & Box, 4-19-24
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
He's having a great year but I don't think he's got any legitimate shot to take a position in Chicago long term. The Cubs are not going to to be looking to replace Hoerner regardless of the rough start; they just signed him to an extension and clearly think highly of him. Maybe he'll be given a shot at third base if the Cubs decide to cancel the Morel-experience, but probably by that point, Matt Shaw will have rocketed up to a point where he's on the precipice himself. Vazqauez reminds me of Joey Ortiz recently with Baltimore. A prospect who found his footing (and additional power) a little later than others, who got squeezed out by the likes of Henderson, Holiday, and Westburg. He feels like someone who will eventually be used in a trade. Which is free money either way...Baltimore came away with Corbin Burnes because of the breakout. The Cubs could come away with a similarly interesting player. -
Minor League Discussion & Box, 4-19-24
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I'm going to guess he'll get some time in Iowa, but I'm not 100% sure it's necessary, either. I don't think he's got much more to do in Double-A. He's got 8 appearances and 35 innings at the level. He's given up just five earned runs in 35 innings. He's struck out 40 hitters and walked 12. His ERA is under 1.30. So far in 2023 he's improved his walk rate, his xFIP, his K rate, his BABIP against...it's 8 innings but the point remains; I think he's done with Double-A at this point and I don't expect the Cubs to keep him there much longer. He probably won't be in Chicago by May 1st, but he'll probably be in Iowa. I'd say any time after June 1st is prime Horton time. I'd expect if an injury would occur and a rotation spot open between now and then, Brown and Wesneski would get cracks. After June 1st...Horton likely jumps the later and maybe the former too if he's settled in the pen. -
Minor League Discussion & Box, 4-18-24
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
So I'd say this: Owen Caissie is every bit of what an elite power hitting prospect looks like. He's consistently posted great exit velocities, he's improved his contact rates (especially against RHP). Can he hit 97mph+? We don't have a lot of statcast data yet to say either way. He's faced 94+ mph in just five PA's so far at the Triple-A level (we don't have access to public statcast data for levels lower than Triple-A) and that's not enough to know anything yet. But I do think he's raw skills are good enough to handle that fine. He's someone who's had to shift his hit box (the point of contact with the baseball) because he was so patient early, he let the ball travel too far...partially because he has quick hands for a dude his size. As well, pitchers in Triple-A seem to be deathly afraid of attacking up and in on Caissie, another signal that other teams think his hand speed is more than enough to get in on those pitches. Usually what we see with hitters who are as tall as Caissie is a consistent diet of hard stuff up and in to attack the levers. We're not seeing that right now. -
Mervis can't play the OF. The Cubs cannot have an OF where Patrick Wisdom is the 4th OF'er. He is barely an OFer'. Sure it'd be nice to have an option for a left handed hitter, but it feels like an option is all it really is. They'll have those options when a LHP starts, considering Canario would take the start, and Tauchmann would remain on the bench. When a RHP starts..again...who are you worried about pinch hitting for? The catcher is really the only PH spot the Cubs have most days where you'd want a lefty on the bench.
-
I'm just not sure what the Cubs can do unless they're willing to DFA Kyle before May 1st. 1. He can't go to Triple-A with a fake injury. The MLB just nailed the Mets for this. Kyle has been awful. It'll be clear as day. 2. He doesn't really profile as a BP arm. The velo and stuff just isn't useful there. Maybe he mops up, but it'll be hard to really get much feedback there. 3. He *could* accept a demotion. But when was the last time any MLB player accepted a demotion on their own like this? 4. Back to the original point. Are the Cubs really cutting bait on a 2.5 fWAR SP last year after 5 starts? With no velo drop? I really don't know what the Cubs can do. They're in a rock and a hard place situation. You can make an argument he's done. You can make an argument he's not. I am glad I don't have the make the choice.
-
They don't have any when they play, sure, but wouldn't you rather get 2-3 PAs of a LHH in a game than sit him in the bench in the event you *maybe* need one? And as @Transmogrified Tigerpointed out, other than a C, who do you really want to PH for? I don't like Tauchmann that much, bur against a RHP, start Mike.
-
Minor League Discussion & Box, 4-18-24
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
@Bertz I wanted to test your theory about the way pitchers are approaching Caissie and I think you nailed it. Below are pitch frequencies for a handful of different hitters at Iowa... The other three are different styles of hitters, some are right handed, others more power hitters, PCA a free swinger. No one is getting the refusal to come inside like Caissie.

