Jason Ross

Bellibomb. Impressive on two strikes.

He did. But I also remain skeptical of one game velo drops. Sometimes you're tired, or under the weather, or the gun is cold, or you're holding something back a bit...It's anecdotal. I'm not overly concerned in either way when I see those (same as one game velo bumps). I don't know why the velo dip, but I'd suspect it's just a blip more than anything.

I expect the Pirates will let the gloves off a little. He was over 20 batters faced and 6 IP the second most recent outing and faced 17 and 19 in his other two starts (of his last three). If Skenes is pitching well, I think 20-23 hitters is probably on the table or around 5-6 IP. Hopefully the Cubs just give him a rude greeting regardless and knock him out in the third after 3+ runs.

So, here are some league statistics vs the two: League outerhalf% - 58.7% League oppo% - 27.1% Ian Happ outerhalf% - 53.6% Ian Happ oppo% - 28.7% Dansby Swanson outerhal% - 63.1% Dansby Swanson oppo% - 25.8% So it looks like Happ needs to pull the ball more and Dansby needs to find a way to force pitchers back inside...likely by going the other way more. Yeah, the numbers are interesting. I can't prove anything, but I have a feeling that when teams aren't hitting well, the general feeling is "well these guys are just too pull happy!" (it feels like an easy boogeyman). Not trying to throw you or anyone under the bus, I'm just as guilty of it, so it's not at anyone, just I think a bad habit many baseball fans/former players go to. Baseball savant makes me look stupid constantly for my preconceived notions (case in point, Alonfo Soriano didn't strike out nearly as much as I thought I remembered him doing. Damn you, selective memory).

I'm not sure they're not going that way enough, though; they're 11th in opposite field hits and 13th in opposite field%. As well, while they've been thrown to the outer half more than league average (581% vs 57.7%) they're just 13th in seeing pitches on the outer half, it isn't like they're being pitched there in some extreme way. Even looking recently...that number is 19th over their last 16 game stretch (below the league average)...so teams aren't going away from them, the inverse is occuring. They don't seem to be in the bad quadrant here; they're one home run away from league average in oppoHR, they're slightly above league average in outer half pitches, and they're slightly above average in oppo hits and oppo%.

The Cubs have three opposite field home runs, and the league average is four. We are tied for 18th six other teams. One of those three was hit by a RHB. The Cubs are 13th in oppo% as well. It's really hard to do damage opposite field.

In the Cubs defense, they went from the 14% highest (Prior to their 16 game in a row schedule) in first pitch strike to the 7th highest first pitch strike. Teams are clearly not allowing the Cubs to be patient early in the count. The Cubs, prior to the 16 game stretch were the 4th best team in baseball when in hitter's counts. Cubs opponents have identified that they don't want to be behind in the count and have upped their first pitch strikes accordingly. When teams throw first pitch strikes, you're put in a situation where you're forced to adjust to that. This makes sense, as well, in the context that Cubs have lost two of their best hitters over that span and were among the lowest in chase rate in baseball (8th in baseball at the time of the 16-game-in-a-row-stretch), as well. If there's a positive, the Cubs are still top-10 in first pitch wOBA on the season, I think we just have to take a breath, and let things work out. Yes the offense is scuffling but these things happen. Even more so when you've got two of your best offensive weapons on the shelf and you're up against some really good pitchers. The Cubs have twice gotten the Padres, a team in the bottom-1 in xwOBA and twice gotten Darvish and Cease. That's four of six games of a bottom pitching staff and you're gritting it out against the 2nd best pitcher in baseball based on fWAR on the season and Darvish's 3.86 xFIP. That's rough.

I think Wesneski is doing some of the seam shifted wake stuff we've seen. There seems to be a difference in his tilt/spin of his cutter this year. I think it's throwing left handed hitters off because his cutter was crushed last year to the tune of a .477 wOBA and this year it's been arguably one of his better pitches. Sample size is too small to definitive say anything yet, but it's having drastic outcome changes this year in the small samples we're seeing.

Yeah I do wonder how much it'll matter immediately. I think it's going to start as anecdotal fun. With that said, the more data we have, I suspect things will come out of it. Like it was cool to see spin rate, but now we know that we can also track tilt (observable and relative) and we can figure out how those things interplay with each other to create seam shifted wake. Which is truly where my excitement is in; what someone is going to be able to do with that information now that we have it down the road.

Hey statheads! Just wanted to let everyone know Baseball Savant has a host of new statistics dropping May 13th all around the idea of bat tracking. Figure this is only for the dorkiest of the dorkiest of us. but I know my birds of a feather are here and wanted to pass along the cool new information. Kind of excited to see how Cubs hitters stack up on bat speed myself. Any guesses on who has the fastest speed?

You'll have to forgive me on that oversight. Been traveling and haven't had as much time. Went on memory and could have sworn he was a senior sign because he was underslot. Regardless, 8th round selections are usually penny-pinchers when it comes to slot, so general point remains that these are prospects you normally expect less from. Senior, junior, whatever....Bateman has hit well and that's a good thing. Anything they get out of him prospect wise is a win.

High fastball. Good to see Busch go get thst pitch.

Bummed for Shota. That wasn't a bad pitch.

I wonder how long until the Cubs pick up his option to extend this to five years.

At this point I'm not sure a Cy Young award is enough for how good Shota clearly is. The MLB will have to invent a new, more prestigious award to fully encapsulate Shota's brilliance.

Shota is awesome.

A big week for the Cubs in the minor leagues was highlighted by the much-anticipated callup of star prospect Cade Horton, to Triple-A Iowa. How was the rest of the week for the farm system? Image courtesy of © Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK Iowa Cubs (1-5) Rough week for the Iowa Cubs, as they were on the road facing the first-place Omaha Storm Chasers. The series loss dropped the team below the .500 mark on the season. Next up: a home series against bottom-feeding Columbus to (hopefully) reset the team. RF, Owen Caissie: 159 wRC+, 18.2 K%, 27.3 BB%, 1 HR: No matter what the Iowa Cubs record is, the Canadian right fielder is finding his groove at Triple-A. Homering off a lefty this week for his second long fly of the season, Caissie also managed to walk more than he struck out. I keep thinking he's going to hit a rough patch, but he's looking more and more ready for the next level. SP. Cade Horton: 4 IP, 6 K, 4 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: A weird start for Horton in many ways. First, the velocity was way down from where we saw it in Double-A. Secondly, the walks were entirely uncharacteristic. The good news is that, when pressured, he ran the strikeout play. There's also some interesting data showing poor IVB and extension on the fastball. Overall, I have to wonder if the Cubs have asked Horton to work on something specific, or to almost go 80% tilt instead of full-send. Keegan Thompson saw a decline in fastball velocity before coming up to Chicago and Justin Steele did the same on his rehab start. Just things to keep an eye on. P, Sam McWilliams: 4.1 IP, 7 K, 2 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: The 28-year-old righthander is a pitcher to whom the Cubs may turn at some point, to solve some of their bullpen woes. He's been especially effective in shorter stints, showing off much-improved stuff compared to when he was last in professional baseball. He did get knocked around a bit in his last outing, but I think he's been interesting enough that if the Cubs decide they want to add him to the 40-man at some point, it'd be a worthwhile experiment, given the issues they've had. OF, Brennen Davis: -16 wRC+, 15 K%, 15 BB%: Davis got off to a promising start, homering on a pitch he smoked at 113 mph off the bat. Since then, it's been downhill for the former top prospect, as he managed just a single hit over the last week. Hopefully, he can get his feet under him, as the walk rate looks solid, but he's just not doing much with the rest of his game. Tennessee Smokies (4-2) The loss of their best pitcher, Cade Horton, to promotion did not stop down the Tennessee Smokies, as they took four of six against the Biloxi Shuckers. The Smokies continue their climb toward the top of the Southern standings as the cellar dwellers, the Chattanooga Lookouts come to town this week. SP, Kyle Hendricks: 5 IP, 7 K, 0 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: A promising rehab start for the Professor in Tennessee was punctuated by seven strikeouts and no walks. The command looked improved, and he looked sharper than he has so far in the majors, the major caveat being that this is Double-A and looks can be deceiving. The hope is that a short IL stint and rehab has gotten Hendricks on the straight and narrow again. Next up is a second rehab start in Iowa this week before he likely rejoins the team. C, Moises Ballesteros: 254 wRC+, 14.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 3 2bs: His season line is now over a 200 wRC+. That means Big Mo has been 100% better than the average Double-A hitter...as a 20 year old. I keep thinking he can't keep this up, and then he hits .500 over a full week of games. There may not be a prospect in all of baseball, at any level, off to a more impressive start to 2024 when we add in context. 1b, Haydn McGeary: 169 wRC+, 35.3 K%, 11.8 BB%: A better week for the big first baseman who's been off to a horrible start to the 2024 season. The power is still nonexistent and he's hitting far too many baseballs on the ground (if he's hitting them at all), but this is at least encouraging. It was expected that McGeary would make quick work of Double-A this year after tuning up the level last year with a 122 wRC+, but it has not gone according to plan. Maybe this gets him going? RP, Zac Leigh: 4 IP, 5 K, 2 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: The right-handed reliever is off to a great start in Tennessee and could see a bump to Iowa. While he's among the older prospects, at age 26 and still in Double-A, there remains a viable MLB reliever's profile here. On a team who's had as many issues in the bullpen this year, it's enough to give Leigh just enough light at the end of the tunnel that he could find his was to Chicago this summer. 3b. Matt Shaw: 81 wR+C, 16,7 K%, 20.8 BB%: The last few weeks haven't been the best for the first round pick, but there have been some encouraging signs that he might be coming out of this soon as Shaw is starting to walk a lot and we can see players progress from strike-zone-command to damage quickly (I.E. Christopher Morel over the last week+). Concerning however...Shaw only has one double on the year. South Bend Cubs (4-2) South Bend finally had a nice week as they took four games against the Lansing Lugnuts climbing out of last place in the Midwest League Western division. South Bend can continue to climb the divisional ladder as Cedar Rapids visits South Bend for a six game tilt this week. SP, Brady McCullough: 4 IP, 2 K, 1 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: The right hander has had a pretty solid season so far in South Bend, dropping his ERA to under 2.00 and he's yet to surrender a home run. I'd like to see some more strikeouts, but he's probably on the radar for a mid-season bump to Tennessee at any time. SP, Will Sanders: 3.2 IP, 5 K, 1 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: A second good start for Sanders in a row as he continues to ramp up in pitch count and length. We're finally starting to see the advanced arm begin to flash reasons why the Cubs took him in the '24 draft. Like McCullough, he too could make his way to Tennessee mid-season. 2b, Pedro Ramirez: 243 wRC+, 3.6 K%, 3.6 BB%, 1 2b, 2 HR: A huge week for the infielder and we really could be on the border of a major breakout for the 20 year old. Now up to a 150 wRC+ on the year, the last hurdle to clear is to show some added power, which he did this week. Pedro has been a bright spot on a weak South Bend team all year. OF, Brett Bateman: 229 wRC+, 8.3 K%, 20.8 BB%, 2 2b: I need to see more power before I officially jump on the Bateman hype train, but he's absolutely making short work of South Bend. The reality of senior-signs in the first-10 rounds is that many of them are penny-pinchers so getting any production is good. Bateman probably joins Tennessee at some point this season and I'm going to be curious if his lack of power will hold him back or a strong hit-tool will allow him to be a high average OF'er in a Steven Kwan mold. Myrtle Beach Pelicans (3-3) The Pelicans were able to salvage a split series this week against Lynchburg after they dropped three straight midweek. A second straight road series against the 12-15 Salem Red Sox is on tap this weekend as the Pelicans look to right the ship SS, Cristian Hernandez: 167 wRC+, 30.4 K%, 8.7 BB%: Hernandez continues to hit well in Myrtle this season there's little denying it. We're not on full on breakout yet considering his repeater nature, but the longer this goes the more confidence I have that we're on that path. OF, Alfonsin Rosario: 26 wRC+, 45 K%, 5 BB%, 1 2b: The reality with Rosario is that despite being a bit older at 19, he remains very raw. The power is clearly there, with four of his eight hits being for extra bases. With that said, there's clearly a learning curve in terms of contact rate, as Rosario remains a major strikeout threat every time he walks into the box. It's likely going to be an up and down ride for Rosario but the hope is that the power can eventually outweigh the strikeouts and there's plenty of time for that to occur. Just be patient. SP, Juan Bello: 3 IP, 3 K, 4 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: A not-so-great start for the breakout pitcher, as Bello struggled with control. Bello's been one of the more fun follows in Low-A this year, so despite the rough outing, I'm not out on him. He even showed off some Nester-Cortes-esque leg movement pre-pitch a few times. Regardless of the walks, Bello is a fun follow right now. View full article

This feels like the most likely scenario, IMO. Akin to Hendricks.

I love Eno so I'm glad to see this.

Both. Either, really. I think it's interesting that we've seen a reoccurring pattern that players head to Iowa and their velo drops. This hasn't been something we've seen in the past, but something that feels like it's happening specifically now. The "why" could be either of those things, or it could be coincidence. But I've noticed what seems like a slight pattern occurring and it's certainly got my ears perked.

So, one thing i find interesting about the Horton velocity thing: 1. Keegan Thompson in Triple-A sees a velo decrease. Comes to MLB...velo back. 2. Steele rehab velo was down. 3. Horton shows up in Iowa. Velo is down. I'm not saying they're connected, just something interesting.

Feels that way. Barring injury, I have a sneaking suspicion this will be the last time we see Matt Mervis in a Chicago Cubs uniform.

Mastobunoi up. Mervis down.

We. Have. Better. Ways. To. Evaluate. Players. C'mon, man. Just like Peanut *you* know this. He's literally *not* average. League Average LF 2022: 101 wRC+ League Average LF 2023: 100 wRC+ Happ over those years: 120 wRC+, 118 wRC+ He's roughly 20% better than average. So no. He's not just a guy.