Jason Ross

Feels that way. Barring injury, I have a sneaking suspicion this will be the last time we see Matt Mervis in a Chicago Cubs uniform.

Mastobunoi up. Mervis down.

We. Have. Better. Ways. To. Evaluate. Players. C'mon, man. Just like Peanut *you* know this. He's literally *not* average. League Average LF 2022: 101 wRC+ League Average LF 2023: 100 wRC+ Happ over those years: 120 wRC+, 118 wRC+ He's roughly 20% better than average. So no. He's not just a guy.

While not untrue, it also feels disingenuous to the discussion to use the last calendar year, as it conveniently replaces Happ's best month (April, 2023 - 135 wRC+) with his worst month (April 2024 - 92 wRC+) in that span. Many players are going to look far worse when you do that. It's just a standard arbitrary end point. When we just include last April in the data set, he jumps to 3.2 fWAR over that span, tied with Paul Goldschmidt and Pete Alonso, and just .2 fWAR shy of Arenado. That too is an example of arbitrary end points. Regardless, since Iann Happ worked on his plate approach (2022) he's been a very good performer. Star? No. But there is a disconnect at times between how pretty good Happ has been and how fans perceive him (as being a JAG) which just hasn't been supported by the data. As I stated, I get it, he's not sexy, he's just a solid player, and I think that's where the disconnect comes in. He doesn't really need to go on a massive surge, as well. He didn't have a single month last year under 100 wRC+ In 2022, he had three and had three months over 130 wRC+. He's almost assuredly going to end up around a 120 wRC+ if he stays healthy. Put up a 120 wRC+ month and almost everything will be forgotten. He's had a tough couple of weeks. But it's probably just that...normal ebbs and flows in a baseball season that every player goes through. And I don't mean to sound like the Ian Happ Truther or defender of his honor, it just feels like the tide as turned into the wrong direction in terms of how we view Happ right now, likely due to his bad month and the Cubs, in general, poor offensive performance over the last 2-3 weeks. It's fine to point out Happ hasn't been good in April. I just don't think it should wade into hyperbolic territory where we call him "just a guy" or act like he's a bad contract.

When people post things like this, it becomes obvious they're not looking things up to either support or deny their opinion. Ian Happ, over the last two years, has been worth 6.8 fWAR. Thata good for 12th of *all* OFers in that time (qualified). 16th non-qualified. That's more than Randy Arozarena and just shy of Aldolis Garcia. That's not "just a guy". There's plenty of runway between bonafide star and JAG, and Happ easily lands the plane between those two areas. He's in the "pretty good" category. He's not special, but he's been 20% better than league average during that span offensively. I get that what Happ does doesn't *feel* special. He's a LF'er, an unsexy position defensively. He doesn't hit 35+ bombs. He's not flashy. He's just a pretty good player. But we have *got* to stop hand wringing every five seconds and calling him a JAG. You know who's a JAG? Hunter Renfroe. Alex Verdugo. Two hitters who are very average offensively and have been worth 4+ fWAR less over the same two years as Happ. That's what a JAG looks like. Happ is solidly above that group. I wish the Cubs had some more players you'd consider to be above the pretty good category, but that's not an Ian Happ issue, either. Happ, on his own, is just fine.

He's been one of the most valuable OFers in baseball the last two years, being worth 7 fWAR combined in back to back years. Take the OPS and ignore it; we know there are better ways to evaluate players. I know *you* know that, too. As well, the Cubs arguably don't have a single bad contract right now; they're either short term deals that run out by 2026 or Dansby Swanson. That's it. The worst Cubs contracts are still more than fine contracts. He's had a weak month. Just about every player in baseball will have one, even the best of the best do. He's not a star but based on rising contracts, being a $20m PF'er doesn't mean you have to be a star any more. By the end of the season, it's more likely than not he'll be close to the 120 wRC+ hitter has been the last two seasons. There's little reason to overreact.

Honestly, had Caissie been on the 40-man...I think the Cubs may have gone with him based on his form over PCA. They clearly aren't scared to call guys up and throw them in the deep end a bit (I.E. Brown). Being he's not 40-man'd it was an easy call. And good on PCA he's looked far better, so it's probably been the right call ultimately.

Many of the Cubs best prospects had really solid starts to their 2024 campaign. Which one of them stood out over the rest? Image courtesy of Tennessee Smokies April is always a fun month and full of hope. For the Cubs, it also saw the promotion of some of it's biggest name prospects. Luckily for the Cubs, their farm system is stacked with interesting prospects to follow. Also luckily for the Cubs, many of their best prospects had big first months of the season. Honorable Mentions 3B Matt Shaw: 150 wRC+, 25.3 K%, 16 BB%, 1 3B, 3 HR: Okay, his last few weeks have been lackluster, but also highlights how torrid of a start he got off to. It was an imbalanced month, but his incredible walk rate (a new plate approach seems to be in the works) and a 150 wRC+ in Double-A is going to get you landed as an honorable mention regardless. If his month had been more consistent, he'd be much, much higher. OF Kevin Alcantara: 113 wRC+, 26 K%, 5 BB%, 2B, 4 HR: `Alcantara is the anti-Shaw, starting his season off with 10 straight hitless games. Since then, he's posted a 228 wRC+, with eight extra-base hits, a Strikeout Rate under 20% and is absolutely crushing the baseball. The overall line isn't good enough to get onto the podium for April, but he belongs in the conversation based on his last two weeks. IF Luis Vazquez: 142 wRC+, 22 K%, 8 BB%, 5 2B, 3 HR: Man, it's rough to have to relegate the Iowa Cubs shortstop to the honorable mentions category, but I just can't find a way to justify him higher. Regardless, Luis absolutely crushed April, and at some point, the Cubs may have to ask themselves if he can give them more with the bat than Nick Madrigal can. OF Owen Caissie: 129 wRC+, 30.9 K%, 17.3 BB%, 8 2B, 1 HR: It's just a matter of times the doubles turn into home runs for the slugging outfielder. The K's are a bit elevated but not horrible for his age or for his first run at Triple-A. This has been one of his better starts, and if he continues to do what he's done at the previous levels - which is turn on the jets - come June...watch out. April's Top 3 Cubs Minor League Hitters of the Month #3 - 2B James Triantos: 142 wRC+, 10 K%, 6.3 BB%, 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR Triantos absolutely went bonkers this month in Tennessee. He's getting the edge on a few of the above players (a common theme of the top-3) due to age and context: he's just 21 years old and just starting his time in Tennessee at Double-A. We can debate his defensive ability and position, but this exercise is all about the bat. With eight extra base hits, he's showing more signs of power without losing an inch of contact ability. #2 - SS Jefferson Rojas: 126 wRC+, 18.2 K%, 8 BB%, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR Did players have better overall lines than Rojas who are currently sitting in the Honorable Mentions category? Yes, they did. None of them, however, turned 18-years-old this month, and playing at High-A and that gives Rojas the edge in my book. This is as good of an April offensively you could have drawn up for the shortstop. Continuing to sport a low strikeout rate at more advanced levels fills me with some hope that this is truly a breakout prospect with star potential. With that said, being 18 years old at High-A just isn't enough to topple... April's Cubs Minor League Hitter of the Month: C Moises Ballesteros, C : 184 wRC+, 13.8 K%, 15.5 BB%, 2 2B, 3 HR A 184 wRC+ will do it. The reality is that this wasn't even close, Big Mo absolutely ran away with this month's awards. Let's put it this way: a 184 wRC+ with a strikeout to walk ratio in favor of the walks is the type of thing I write up for my "hot or not" weekly section, not for 58 plate appearances spanning a month. This is ridiculous. And to keep the theme of the month here; he's only 20 years old. and in his first taste of Tennessee. Tons has been made about his ability or inability to stick at catcher, but if he's going to hit like this...he can be a DH and we'll all get on with our lives. Have yourself a month, Mo! View full article

So what you're saying is "I want more power rankings".

Tonight is a good reminder the next time we blow a game...they go both ways. But I'll take it!

Just how you draw it up.

Yeah, there's a bit of sadness when it comes to Madrigal's upside at this point and what our "best case" is with his bat. It's hard to defend him as a useful long term piece at this point...more or less biding his time until the Cubs decide it's time to upgrade that slot via trade or prospect promotion,

That's a good idea. A "This Week in the Cubs Offseason" type thing? Recap rumors and transactions? I'm sure one of us writers can do it. Hell, probably something I could do.

On the Madrigal debate as a whole: I think I'm fine going in any direction with Mastro/Madrigal/Vazquez. I think you can make an argument for any of them: Madrigal: Allows you to let Vazquez stay in Triple-A and develop. Gives you consistent contact off the bench. Good glove, capable of playing 2b and 3b, and his .200 BABIP will simply improve naturally Mastrobuoni: Gives you a left handed hitter, had a 100 wRC+ in a decent sample size at the end of last year. Can offer some OF versatility if you want it. Likely not a bench killer with as little as he plays. Vazquez: Capable of playing SS, something neither of the other two are capable of. Possible his bat is a step up from both and could give the Cubs more options for resting guys like Hoerner/Swanson that they don't have the same luxury with the former two. Has been hitting out of his mind at Triple-A It's still early enough in the season that even if you think Vazquez is the bang-on best option (and I don't really think that) his development still trumps the marginal benefit as the 26th man. In the even of an injury in the case of Hoerner/Swanson I'd probably turn to Vazquez over the other two, but as 26th men? I think the former two are just fine right now. Come September/October it might make sense to elevate the latter over the other two, but that's when you're worried about your best roster and development takes a back seat for a bit.

Probably not. Bote is off the 40-man and the Cubs probably have little incentive right now to add him. Even if he's a marginal upgrade over Mastrobuoni (which I don't really think he is) you'd have to DFA someone just to get a marginal benefit for someone who's barely playing (Mastro got 13 PA's his first run). It's not worth that.

Good to see him turn and burn one off the lefty. It's one month into his Triple-A journey but he's really been hitting lefties well this year; a big jump from years past.

He's hit the ball hard in Triple-A, but in-zone whiff rates and contact rates remained below Triple-A average regardless of whatever changes he's made. As well, teams have really stayed away from where he's done damage. Mervis has hit the ball well inside. MLB pitchers have thrown him outside. MLB pitchers are just really good and if I can find these heat maps, I'm sure MLB teams have this x1,000. You can essentially overlay his pitch frequency chart in the MLB over his contact rate in Triple-A and they'd be mirrors. I will say this: in SSS Mervis has made 72% contact at the MLB level while keeping his in-zone whiff to >19%. The process isn't horrible on the surface. but I think he's swinging way too often (60% swing rate), which has elevated the contact rate, probably. He's swung a lot, and made weak contact a lot.

There's just something wrong with Adbert mechanically right now. It doesn't look like it's a release point thing, but there's something that's not allowing him to get to the far side of the plate (for Adbert).

Me to Dansby Swanson:

Wicks and Assad both have top-35 FIP's in baseball right now. There's little reason either should be moved from the rotation. I think it's more likely we see a hybrid 6-man to maintain Horton and Imanaga's innings a bit.

Wainwright.

Outsider's perspective: I think things work pretty well. I like that the game threads are connected to the main forum, myself. It means I don't have to have a handful of extra clicks; I can check the game thread then immediately look under to go into an article or roster-construction question. That's more similar to how things worked at PSD, so that's probably where that's coming from, but either way, I appreciate that. Conversation has been good too! Again, as a newer member, the levels of discussion are really similar to where we were at on PSD when we had a lot of active members. People are happy when things are good and melt down when they're not. God forbid the Cubs lose a three game set to a mediocre team; then it was death-watch city. We had a few bumps, and we jettisoned the biggest offender, but I've been having a good time here with everyone. Feel less like an outsider/new person and more integrated for sure.

Kyle Schwarber's approach hasn't really changed, though. His swing% in 2015 in 0-0 counts was 29% compared to a little over 27% now. He was equally as pull heavy then as now. He did swing less in general in 2023 to 2015, but the change in swing rate seems to be mostly laying off the super-high stuff. It's refined but he still has a generally similar approach to hitting. A good reminder as well, 2015 was the same season that Schwarber played in Double-A, it's quite unlikely his approach is vastly different over the course of the season, even at different levels. Secondly, I think we need to remember that Owen Caissie was playing in some different conditions at Double-A. First, he's a whole two years younger than Kyle Schwarber and didn't have the benefit of power-five college baseball. As well, Owen Caissie dealt with a baseball experiment in the first half of his Double-A experience, a baseball that has been since removed. Looking at his TTO, he had 30 singles, 15 doubles, 1 triple over his last 50, non-pre-tacked baseball games. Schwarber had 58 games in Double-A in which he posted 39 hits, 10 doubles, and one triple. Caissie hit just about as many non walks-home runs-K's as Schwarber in a smaller sample size and at a different age-gap to the league. I think that context matters. Lastly, what a player's "calling card" is kind of hard to determine. We often think one thing, but data doesn't always bear that out. While I appreciate that in 2015 we thought Kris Bryant hit a lot of opposite field stuff in the minors, I cannot prove or disprove that. What I can do is look at consistent data from Caissie and Schwarber. Even in 2015, Schwarber was pull-only. Caissie has yet to show a spray chart that looks the same. In the end, you're free to have your own opinion, but again, I don't see anything to suggest a comparison. Caissie doesn't do things the way Schwarber does. He doesn't do things the way Schwarber did in 2015, and the way Schwarber does things in 2023 (last full season) isn't very different from 2015. Maybe Caissie will change his approach...we're looking a month of statcast data for him...but if the argument that maybe Caissie will change is the basis for why they're being compared...that feels spurious at best.

No. Not in my estimation. It feels like an easy comparison of "OF'er who hits the ball hard" but I think they do things differently. I think Caissie has less three-outcome-potential and I like the progress he's made with his hit tool over the years. Caissie swings more than Schwarber and that's been a big point of emphasis for him; swing more, don't find yourself in bad counts early because you're too patient. Keep in mind we're talking Triple-A data here, but Caissie is swinging at 42% of pitches against RHP. Compare that to Schwarber last year who was at 37%. Caissie also swings earlier in the count: 37% on 0-0 pitches where as Schwarber, last year was at 23%. Caissie also uses the field a lot better in general. I've got Caissie's 2024 hit chart below and Schwarber's 2023. Schwarbs is pull or nothing, where as Caissie has always been someone who isn't as pull heavy. Not to say I wouldn't like to see Caissie pull the ball a but more, but I think the way they go about hitting is quite stark, and even with just a month of statcast Caissie data, you can see that they approach things differently. Caissie isn't elevating the ball right now in Triple-A, but I think part of that has been how he's been pitched; pitchers are only now coming inside on him, so hopefully that'll change. Lastly, I think they are different monsters defensively. Caissie is far more natural in the OF than Schwarber is/was. Caissie has some real athleticism to him out there, and a 60+ grade arm in RF. In the end, I wouldn't compare the too very directly.