Jason Ross

I think we are getting there, yes. His stuff just isn't good enough for anything less than "very good" command. He's a hittable pitcher when he's not hitting his spots because his stuff just doesn't have the oomph. I appreciate a lot of the contact he's giving up isn't hard contact. But when you give up the amount of contact and the lack of stuff he has...we are probably wading into a territory where there's less bad luck at play here and more "this is what happens" when Hendricks is even spotty in his command. Even when it's not hard hit, there's more control coming from hitters due to the lack of stuff/velo what have you.

He has, he homered off a soft tossing lefty this week in Arizona. But the Cubs have plenty of guys who can hit RHP and a DH. He's going to play *some* against LHP, but Counsell is big in platoon and playing matchups. Expect this kind of thing all year. Which is fine.

Back to back great plays!

Good job taking an early lead. Alright.

Canario has produced, but I think the issue here is the how he's produced. He's done so in a way that suggests producing right now at the MLB level is not overly likely. Consider this: the Cubs were pretty aggressive in pursuing Michael Busch. They traded two draft picks they thought of quite highly (based on slot and strategy) and who the industry thought highly of to acquire a first baseman who struggled in his first run at the MLB level. He struggled in his first run in Triple-A, too, in 2022. But the processes where there. Canario's production comes from an area of questionable process. On the same vein, I think people are kind of missing the forest through the trees on Nelson. Nelson Velazquez has a 130+ wRC+ this year, but he's done so with a .417 BABIP and a 1% contact rate. His contact rate is 58.6%. I don't think what he's doing is very repeatable. He looks a lot like...Patrick Wisdom, in fact. Someone who hits the ball super hard, but doesn't hit it very often. I think Velazquez belongs on an MLB roster and I think Wisdom has use on an MLB roster. Much like I think Canario can have use. But like Nelly, I think Canario's outlook mirrors the Wisdom route. And if the Cubs trade a Wisdom-type before finding that out...so be it. To the last point, I like to be risk-aggressive myself. I was pro-Horton in the draft, I'm pro-Horton coming up as soon as possible as examples. But I think there's risk-aggressive and risk for risk's sake. And right now, Canario feels a bit more of risk for risks' sake. The upside on Canario is probably Wisdom. So playing the OG...well...I can't find much to quibble with. I also wouldn't mind if the Cubs played Canario. And I don't mean to pick you out; I promise you I'm not. You're just making coherent, cogent arguments and it's an easy place to put my thoughts.

What has he done in Triple-A to force it, though? His contact rates suck and this isn't an aberration or new; it's been a consistent question on Canario his entire career. These correlate at some of the highest levels to what to expect at the MLB. He'd be among the worst contact hitters in the MLB right now. Not everyone needs to get a chance simply because they're 24. I'm not against Canario getting shots against LHP. I'd say I'm pretty negative on Wisdom's ability to handle RF; he's handled third like a DH level defender for two years. With that said, he's a more consistent MLB bat. And I say this as someone who's been pretty down on Wisdom. For years. I just don't think Wisdom over Canario is a major slight. It's very six in one hand and half a dozen in the other. I'd have little issue with them going with either.

Canario just isn't very exciting and I think fans like to overrate him simply because he's young. There's major issues with his profile. For example, he's sporting a 32.5% in zone whiff% this year. This is at Triple-A. Only two major league hitters have worse in-zone whiff rates on the year. The MLB average is 17.5%. We can safely assume that number is going to go up as the competition does. His overall contact% is 62.5%. League average at the MLB level is 75%. Seven hitters have a worse contact rate the the MLB level. These numbers are in small sample sizes, but he also isn't someone who's blowing down the doors of inferior pitching. Alexander Canario is younger than Mike Tauchmann. And I don't find Mike Tauchmann particularly exciting or exceptional. But just because a player is younger does not mean he has all of the potential in the world, nor does it automatically make him better. Canario has struggled to make even decent levels of contact at Triple-A so far on the year. I don't want to make it seem like he's a dead prospect or that there's no hope. Especially as a platoon partner, right now, Canario has use. But I think we're getting a little ahead of ourselves being upset the Cubs haven't prioritized Canario. They shouldn't be. He's a decent player in the organization, but he's not the kind of prospect you force into the lineup. If Canario forces his way in, great. But he needs to force it himself.

He's having a great year but I don't think he's got any legitimate shot to take a position in Chicago long term. The Cubs are not going to to be looking to replace Hoerner regardless of the rough start; they just signed him to an extension and clearly think highly of him. Maybe he'll be given a shot at third base if the Cubs decide to cancel the Morel-experience, but probably by that point, Matt Shaw will have rocketed up to a point where he's on the precipice himself. Vazqauez reminds me of Joey Ortiz recently with Baltimore. A prospect who found his footing (and additional power) a little later than others, who got squeezed out by the likes of Henderson, Holiday, and Westburg. He feels like someone who will eventually be used in a trade. Which is free money either way...Baltimore came away with Corbin Burnes because of the breakout. The Cubs could come away with a similarly interesting player.

I'm going to guess he'll get some time in Iowa, but I'm not 100% sure it's necessary, either. I don't think he's got much more to do in Double-A. He's got 8 appearances and 35 innings at the level. He's given up just five earned runs in 35 innings. He's struck out 40 hitters and walked 12. His ERA is under 1.30. So far in 2023 he's improved his walk rate, his xFIP, his K rate, his BABIP against...it's 8 innings but the point remains; I think he's done with Double-A at this point and I don't expect the Cubs to keep him there much longer. He probably won't be in Chicago by May 1st, but he'll probably be in Iowa. I'd say any time after June 1st is prime Horton time. I'd expect if an injury would occur and a rotation spot open between now and then, Brown and Wesneski would get cracks. After June 1st...Horton likely jumps the later and maybe the former too if he's settled in the pen.

So I'd say this: Owen Caissie is every bit of what an elite power hitting prospect looks like. He's consistently posted great exit velocities, he's improved his contact rates (especially against RHP). Can he hit 97mph+? We don't have a lot of statcast data yet to say either way. He's faced 94+ mph in just five PA's so far at the Triple-A level (we don't have access to public statcast data for levels lower than Triple-A) and that's not enough to know anything yet. But I do think he's raw skills are good enough to handle that fine. He's someone who's had to shift his hit box (the point of contact with the baseball) because he was so patient early, he let the ball travel too far...partially because he has quick hands for a dude his size. As well, pitchers in Triple-A seem to be deathly afraid of attacking up and in on Caissie, another signal that other teams think his hand speed is more than enough to get in on those pitches. Usually what we see with hitters who are as tall as Caissie is a consistent diet of hard stuff up and in to attack the levers. We're not seeing that right now.

Mervis can't play the OF. The Cubs cannot have an OF where Patrick Wisdom is the 4th OF'er. He is barely an OFer'. Sure it'd be nice to have an option for a left handed hitter, but it feels like an option is all it really is. They'll have those options when a LHP starts, considering Canario would take the start, and Tauchmann would remain on the bench. When a RHP starts..again...who are you worried about pinch hitting for? The catcher is really the only PH spot the Cubs have most days where you'd want a lefty on the bench.

I'm just not sure what the Cubs can do unless they're willing to DFA Kyle before May 1st. 1. He can't go to Triple-A with a fake injury. The MLB just nailed the Mets for this. Kyle has been awful. It'll be clear as day. 2. He doesn't really profile as a BP arm. The velo and stuff just isn't useful there. Maybe he mops up, but it'll be hard to really get much feedback there. 3. He *could* accept a demotion. But when was the last time any MLB player accepted a demotion on their own like this? 4. Back to the original point. Are the Cubs really cutting bait on a 2.5 fWAR SP last year after 5 starts? With no velo drop? I really don't know what the Cubs can do. They're in a rock and a hard place situation. You can make an argument he's done. You can make an argument he's not. I am glad I don't have the make the choice.

They don't have any when they play, sure, but wouldn't you rather get 2-3 PAs of a LHH in a game than sit him in the bench in the event you *maybe* need one? And as @Transmogrified Tigerpointed out, other than a C, who do you really want to PH for? I don't like Tauchmann that much, bur against a RHP, start Mike.

Canario can hit against LHP. But I'd rather let Tauchmann hit against RHP. Canario just isn't very exciting as a primary OF'er. And I say this as someone who no one would classify as "president of the Tacuhamnn fan club".

Wesneski down. Mastro down. Wisdom/Taillon up. Rotation will be: Friday: Taillon Sat: Assad and Imanaga (order TBA) Sun: Hendricks

@Bertz I wanted to test your theory about the way pitchers are approaching Caissie and I think you nailed it. Below are pitch frequencies for a handful of different hitters at Iowa... The other three are different styles of hitters, some are right handed, others more power hitters, PCA a free swinger. No one is getting the refusal to come inside like Caissie.

The one thing I'll say is this: Wicks did not get a single out on the sinker yesterday. He gave up two hits on the sinker, but it was mostly foul balls and balls out of the zone. I think the sinker is a useful pitch, but the changeup got three ground balls, the fastball two, and the sinker two: both hits, one hard hit. Overall though, I agree that he's not entirely there yet, but I like a lot of the new stuff. He's clearly working on adding to the whiff and working through a new version of his fastball. A little trial and error

I was actually wondering this yesterday...it felt like maybe a one day call up and then a send down for an arm they could use over the next few days.

I think a few things are happening with Wicks: 1. He's working through an improved fastball velocity wise. Throwing the fastball up is new and I think he's struggled a bit with locatiion. 2. He's working on balancing how often he should throw the fastball. The good news is that yesterday, there was a bit of a change. First, he threw a lot more first strikes; 13 of 20 hitters saw first pitch strikes. Second, a 6:2 ground ball to fly ball rate. He also threw his changeup more, throwing it 22 times to 27 fastballs. I think he'll throw the changeup more when he's throwing more strikes in general.

I'm less worried about their current record, and more considered about their current talent level. Every team (except one) on that list is a playoff contending team, and I bet when we look back at the end of the year, at least three (and really, could be five) of them make the playoffs. Sure, they might not be off and running on 100+ game win levels, but part of that is because the Dodgers, Mariners and Diamondbacks all lost two of three to the Cubs to begin with. There's a world where the Mariners and the D'Backs are 9-7 and the Dodgers are 12-6 and we're saying the Cubs (8-9) had a really tough start because we played four team 3 of 4 teams in a row with over .500 records.

Bellibomb and the lead.

Glad to see Horton breeze through last night. The angle on his first game was hard to tell what he was doing, but he didn't look...as sharp...as he did last night his first go. That's not a critique, it was his first start of the year, but he just absolutely dominated last night. Can't remember who to give them the proper credit, but someone on twitter mentioned that what Cade Horton does is the opposite of "nibble" and I can't agree more. Horton goes through brick walls. And that brick wall is the hitter.

Welcome to the boards! While I agree, Amaya probably shoulders blame (as do a handful of others) in the game last night, you should never expect to win a game when you've given up seven runs by the fourth inning. The only reason Amaya was in a position to let a wild pitch/passed ball debate to even begin with is because the offense stormed back. And it was Amaya with not one, but two extra base hits that helped you get into that position to begin with. Could Amaya have done more on those? Probably, and they ended up being costly. Little also shoulders blame for throwing some really iffy pitches there. But saying he cost the win...I think that's losing the forest for the trees, as well. Amaya wasn't the reason they lost.

Maybe. His K/BB numbers are significantly better 1st time through. But he's still giving up a .418 wOBA against first time through. So he's getting hit still. I really don't know what you do. Maybe mop up duty, but I can't imagine his stuff ever being useful in even a 7th inning role as of right now. I feel for the guy. Always loved Hendricks. But as of right now this is a shell of the guy. Hope it's mechanical. Fear the clock is inching towards midnight.

It depends on *why* the command is gone. If this is a mechanical flaw then it's something that can be regained. But age and regression also hits control and command much the same way a batters hand speed dies off and if this is Hendricks at a point where it's more than mechanical it really may not come back. For the Cubs they're in a tough spot with Hendricks. Nothing he does profiles well out of the pen, but they're getting a point where he's likely not one of the five best starting options...at least not now. The league just cracked down on the Mets with phantom injuries. So I'm not sure how the Cubs get Hendricks to work on the command (if it's of the mechanical ilk).