Jason Ross

A lack of pre-arb players, really.

I think repeating is a negative on it's own. With that said, I'm a strong believer in thinking of the context of a prospect, so I think Busch is in a bit of a unique situation. The Dodgers are quite stacked, and Busch is quite blocked. They've had a lot of ability to slow play prospects. In other orgs, Busch is up sometime around age 24, but with the likes of Muncy/Freeman/Betts in his way, they could really slow play development. I really like the changes he made. He improved greatly against fastballs and velocity, making it turn from an issue in his first run in Triple-A to a massive positive his second. I've got high hopes on Busch. Think he's a nice prospect.

Yeah, I really try to limit my excitement on ST numbers, but he does seem to be taking coaching well and moving the fastball up. Home runs will be an achilles, but I think the strikeout numbers could be shockingly fun for "only" 92mph.

Not sure if you caught it, and it should be noted it was a back fields game against MiLB hitters, but he comically struck out 13 in just 5 innings in his last start.

Here on Opening Day, we complete our preview of the rest of the National League by looking at the NL East. While the Braves are the presumptive favorites, teams just below them could create trouble for the Cubs in the Wild Card race, if they fail to grab the NL Central title. Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports In 2023, the powerful Atlanta Braves easily won the National League East. Winning a whopping 104 games, the Braves ran away with the division. Behind them, however, two teams finished over ,500 and a third was within shouting distance of a winning record. Despite the Braves walking away with the division, they fell early in the playoffs and the upstart Diamondbacks stole the NL pennant. As we enter 2024, the division, on paper, should result in a similar outcome. If the Dodgers had the flashiest offseason in baseball, the Braves had the most utilitarian, re-signing a few of their own role players, bringing in a former top prospect and a former Cy Young winner, and overall, bolstering their already impressive roster. The East didn't see a ton of big acquisitions in the offseason outside of Atlanta, so the standings aren't likely to change much. With that said, there is plenty of intrigue in the division, especially if the Cubs fail to take the NL Central crown. Atlanta Braves: Projected Record: 97-65 (FanGraphs), 101-61 (Baseball Prospectus) Offseason Moves: Notable Additions: Chris Sale, SP; Jarred Kelenic, OF; Aaron Bummer, LHP Notable Losses: Eddie Rosario, LF; Kirby Yates, RHP Scouting Report: This might be the deepest lineup in baseball. With superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. headlining the batting order, he's surrounded by All-Star-level talents such as catcher Sean Murphy, third baseman Austin Riley, second baseman Ozzie Albies, first baseman Matt Olson, and center fielder Michael Harris II. It's terrifying just thinking about it. Once you get past the upper crust, you're still left with players like 2023 breakout Orlando Arcia and former top prospect Jarred Kelenic. There's very little letup in the lineup, and it would take a massive rash of injuries to truly derail the offensive output. Will they be able to repeat 100 wins? I'm not sure it entirely matters, but the expectation is this team wins the division going away regardless. The Big Question: Can the rotation stay healthy? Behind their lineup, the Braves are a little thinner in the rotation, as they rely on a few oft-injured arms such as Max Fried and Chris Sale behind perennial Cy Young contender Spencer Strider. It was interesting to see a rotation that likely needed a bit more stability target Sale as their big anchor, but if he can stay healthy, the Braves could be a scary team on the mound, as well. Philadelphia Phillies Projected Record: 85-77 (FanGraphs), 84-78 (Baseball Prospectus) Offseason Moves: Notable Additions: Spencer Turnbull, SP; Kolby Allard, RP; Whit Merrifield, UTIL Notable Losses: Rhys Hoskins, 1B; Craig Kimbrel, RHP Scouting Report: Same old Phillies, really. They re-signed Aaron Nola to kickstart their offseason, but other than that, Dave Dombrowski played it very cool, for once. The team returns their entire core from the 2023 season--one that saw them win 90 games last year. Returning the vast majority of that team means this iteration will have similarly high expectations: to at least make the playoffs and give the Phillies a chance at a World Series run. The Fightin's may also get contributions from top prospects such as Mick Abel if they have troubles on the mound, and they have enough prospect depth to swing a midseason trade. This is a team who will be favorites for one of the coveted NL Wild Card spots this season. The Big Question: Do the Phillies have enough? The Braves, on paper, are a juggernaut. The Dodgers, on paper, are a juggernaut. Can the Phillies make it a three-headed-monster on the top of the National League, or are they just not good enough? They were a bottom-five defensive team according to Defensive Runs Saved last season, and with an extra year of age on their key players' tires, they don't project to get any better. Can they legitimately hit and pitch well enough to make up for it? Or are the Phillies going to be the team of "just not enough"? They made the World Series in 2022, fizzled in the playoffs in 2023... Where do they go from here? New York Mets Projected Record: 81-81 (FanGraphs), 84-78 (Baseball Prospectus) Offseason Moves: Notable Additions: J.D. Martinez, DH; Sean Manaea, SP; Luis Severino, SP; Harrison Bader, OF Notable Losses: None Scouting Report: The Mets truly were the example of "winning the offseason does not equate to winning the regular season" in 2023. Making headlines with their big spending, the Mets fell well short of expectations and had a massive sell-off at the trade deadline. The 2024 version of the team is constructed very differently, bringing in David Stearns to run the show and signing some under-the-radar bounce-backs instead of the bona fide studs. There's still star power here, with Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and upstarts like Francisco Alvarez, but the team is going to need some positive outcomes (especially on the mound) to reach the playoffs. If the team can stay afloat long enough, they could make a run midseason, but they feel like they're more built to tread water and then sell off their one-year contracts in July instead. The Big Question: Can Stearns's pixie dust transfer to the Big Apple? The biggest addition the Mets made this year is, arguably, Stearns. Coming over from Milwaukee, Stearns was the architect of a team who consistently outperformed projections and made do with less. The Mets are trying to do the same, relatively speaking, and how much Stearns is able to achieve with the Mets in 2024 will dictate how well they are positioned to either make a run at the playoffs or pivot toward the future come July. If he can pull an Andrew Friedman and turn the Mets into the Dodgers East, the National League will be in trouble. Miami Marlins Projected Record: 80-82 (FanGraphs), 80-82 (Baseball Prospectus) Offseason Moves: Notable Additions: Vidal Bruján, 2B; Christian Bethancourt, C Notable Losses: Jorge Soler, DH; David Robertson, RHP; Jacob Stallings, C Scouting Report: A big surprise in the 2023 season, the Marlins are coming off an over-.500 season. Buoyed by Luis Arráez and his insane bat-to-ball skills; what feels like an endless supply of young, interesting starting pitchers; and a few additions midseason (like slugging third baseman/first baseman Jake Burger), they made a run to the playoffs. However, after losing powerful designated hitter Jorge Soler, and with injuries to key arms such as Sandy Alcántara, this feel like a team poised to take a step back in the 2024 season. The Big Question: How do the Marlins overcome the loss of Sandy Alcántara? The 2022 Cy Young Winner, Alcantara is set to miss the entirety of the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery. The sinker-changeup specialist was the anchor of the Marlins' rotation, and even though the results were a little disappointing last year (likely due to injury), he leaves behind a massive hole. The Marlins have arms such as Jesús Luzardo remaining, as well as intriguing arms like Eury Pérez (who is also dealing with elbow discomfort, but so far dodging the surgeon's scalpel), and Edward Cabrera, but how the team weathers the loss of their ace will determine their trajectory. Washington Nationals Projected Record: 66-96 (FanGraphs), 58-104 (Baseball Prospectus) Offseason Moves: Notable Additions: Joey Gallo, OF/1B; Nick Senzel, 3b/OF; Eddie Rosario, OF Notable Losses: Dominic Smith, 1B Scouting Report: The Nationals are the only team in the East who won't even tease the .500 mark in 2024. If not for the Rockies, they would be considered the worst team in the entire National League as we enter the 2024 season. That isn't to say there isn't some hope or some interesting players--just that the overall roster has plenty of holes in it. The Nats still have a few young players who are set to play most (if not all) of their 2024 on the parent club, such as shortstop CJ Abrams, catcher Keibert Ruiz and first baseman Joey Meneses, but overall, the roster has all of the hallmarks of a 65-win team (or worse). This will not be Washington's year. The Big Question: How will the young players continue to develop? The Nationals may not have a great roster, but they do have some interesting players. The aforementioned Abrams and Ruiz will start the year in Washington, but the Nats also boast some of the best prospects in baseball--namely, outfielders James Wood and 2023 first-round selection Dylan Crews. Both are likely to make their debuts this summer, and could be followed by Robert Hassell, Brady House, and Cade Cavalli if they develop correctly. If the Nationals begin to get contributions from their top prospects, while they won't challenge for NL Wild Card glory in 2024, they could become a dark horse team to make life difficult for others at the tail end of the season. The East seems certain to claim one of the NL Wild Card berths, leaving just two for the other two divisions. After the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Giants all got significantly better late in the offseason, the lane is narrow for any NL Central team trying to squeeze into a Wild Card spot. The Cubs had better win the division, then. View full article

He's going to be living in the top half of his zone with his fastball for a reason, though...that's where it belongs based on it's shape. That's the goal and what he's working on. His fastball may only sit 92-93mph, but based on it's shape, putting it on the upper third is where he's going to find success with it. His fastball has some of the best movement on the planet from a fastball. The issue is that when he throws it at the knees (where he was locating it typically in Japan) it had a tendency to ride it's way directly into the bat path resulting in hard hit, loud, home runs. Working that shape up will mean that when he misses, he's going to miss with a fastball riding over the bat plane...which would result in weak contact in the air (pop ups / weak flys). It should result in less home runs. Something else to remember; this is Spring Training and Imanaga is working through a mentality, pitch mix, and location changes, specifically, with regards to his fastball. His split finger should induce ground balls, but it is highly likely he's focusing more on the fastball (which would result in very few ground balls) than anything. His ST ground ball percentage should be taken with a strong grain of salt (as should almost every number in ST regardless). The one start you watched aside, he's had phenomenal starts when it comes to swings and misses already this spring training, especially with the fastball. I'm highly encouraged that he's been receptive to the changes needed to take his 92 mph fastball and turn it into what could legitimately be an elite fastball despite the velocity,

1. By the end of the season, Cade Horton is clearly the Cubs second best starting pitching option. 2. Michael Busch has a 120 wRC+ on the season. 3. Jaxson Wiggins makes his MiLB debut and shows the improved command that was reported he was showing in the fall at Arkansas.

I feel as though were other options in the third that I would have preferred, yes. I probably would have preferred someone like Nolan McLean, who got similar slot. No worries if that's not anyone else's choice; I like his bat more. Less versatility etc. Personal preference type stuff. I truly don't think I'm being blind here, as stated, Rivera has utility upside, he's just not my type. It's personal preference, not hate. Also when I was mentioning the juice/.squeeze it was less related directly to you and in general. I think disagreeing on personal prospect preference is the name of the game, truly. A lot of it comes down to what we individually see and like and hope for. In the end, the Cubs get a lot of benefit of the doubt. Danny K is a great drafter and if the Cubs liked Rivera more than, say, McLean...that's cool. I'm just going to keep Rivera as my weeper regardless and pretend I'm smarter, even though, in the end, I know I'm not!

The Cubs' farm system has been gaining a lot of traction over the last few years, with the highwater mark being the recent ranking from FanGraphs's Eric Logenhagen as the best system in baseball. With a handful of teams and with an affordable price for MiLB.TV, which team is worth a follow and your hard-earned free time? Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports Through a combination of mid-season sell-offs, savvy trades, and quality draft picks, the Chicago Cubs have built a system that has seen nearly 10 players ranked in someone's top-100, and offering impressive depth and fun players at every level. Recently, in one of their better moves, Major League Baseball has decided to essentially give away their MiLB package, with a yearly plan costing just $30, or free to anyone who subscribes to MLB.TV. With as many as four minor-league games being shown, however, there are only so many games you can watch. To help you decide where you should be watching, I'll be running frequent MiLB Cubs' Affiliate Power Rankings. Like traditional power rankings, these will be based on opinion, but what will differ is that I'm not overly concerned with win-loss records. Instead, I'll focus on talent at the level and overall watchability. It doesn't mean wins and losses mean nothing, but that it's going to be far less of a consideration. I'm also going to keep the power rankings to the four teams (Iowa, Tennessee, South Bend, Myrtle Beach) that are viewable. Yes, I realize I'm leaving out the DSL Cubs and the Arizona Complex League, but with no way to watch the games, it's pretty hard to feature them on these rankings. With that said, let's see where each team is going to rank headed into the 2024 season: #4 - Low-A, Myrtle Beach Pelicans Notable Players: Luis Rujano, SP Christopher Paciolla, 3b, Nazier Mule, SP, Mason McGuire, SP JP Wheat, SP Myrtle Beach always gives us a few surprises, and the Cubs love adding a young position player or two out of nowhere (Derniche Valdez?) but overall, this is probably the least "fun" group as of today. Jaxon Wiggins, the Cubs' second-round selection in the 2023 draft will likely start here (though will be promoted quickly) but expect this to be a very young crop of players. Paciolla, Mule, McGuire and the rehabbing JP Wheat may all make appearances here, and all were taken as prep players in the 2022 Draft. Keep an eye out for Shane Marshall here, as well. Marshall pitched in a whopping three games in his entire college career because he was a catcher. The Cubs picked Marshall, though, because his fastball (in extremely limited time) had some of the best Stuff+ in the entire NCAA when the righty was called upon to pitch in mop-up duty. Rehabbing after an injury, he's a complete mystery, but probably one of my favorite guys to see take the field, if only for the novelty. As well, this is the best "pop-up" spot. I wouldn't have had Jefferson Rojas starting here, nor would I have expected the kind of year he had, so don't be surprised if this team is far more exciting in July than we think it is today. #3 - High-A, South Bend Cubs Notable Players: Michael Arias, SP, Pedro Ramirez, 2b/SS, Ed Howard, SS, Josh Rivera, INF, Drew Gray, SP, Will Sanders, SP, Jefferson Rojas Whereas Myrtle Beach is the team to go watch the 2022 prep class, the South Bend Cubs are the team to watch the 2023 college class. This team would likely be much more interesting with top-10 prospects like Jackson Ferris on the roster, but he was traded for Michael Busch. Despite this, the team does have a handful of interesting 2023 picks (as well as borderline top-10 prospect Jefferson Rojas) likely to see time here. The 2023 draft picks include such players as third-round pick Josh Rivera, fifth-round pick Will Sanders, and a handful of their later-round picks, such as Brendon Bateman, Brian Kalmer, Jonathon Long, and possibly Carter Trice. Truthfully, this should be a pretty interesting watch, though it also might be short-lived if the college bats and arms look good. The previously mentioned Jaxon Wiggins may also feature here, but later in the season, after he gets off to a good start in Myrtle Beach. #2 - Double-A, Tennessee Smokies Notable Players: Matt Shaw, 2b/3b, Cade Horton, SP, Brandon Birdesll, SP, Moises Ballesteros, C, Haydn McGeary, 1b, Kevin Alcantara, CF, James Triantos, 2b Most years, this is the best team. I'm a little skeptical if Horton starts here, but I expect even if he does, he's not staying long. Even if we don't consider him on this list, the team has multiple top-10 prospects, such as 2023 first-round pick Matt Shaw, Mo Ballesteros, Kevin Alcántara, and James Triantos. These are prospects with at least 50 FV grades, and arguably, multiple in the 55 FV+ area. There are a few under-the-radar players, like Brody McCullough (2022 tenth-round selection) and Brandon Birdsell, (2022 fifth-round selection) who have some lower-end MLB upside. Kohl Franklin has nasty stuff, but he simply cannot control it. If there's any progress in strike throwing and consistency, he could add to the fun options the Smokies have, though it may be a bit of a long shot. If Horton was going to stick here past, say, May 1, I could buy an argument for this being the best team in the system...alas... #1 - Triple-A, Iowa Cubs Notable Players: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Cade Horton, SP, BJ Murray 1b/3b, Matt Mervis, 1b, Alexander Canario, OF, Daniel Palencia, RP, Porter Hodge, RP, Luis Vazquez, SS, Owen Caissie, RF, Ben Brown, SP/RP This team is stacked. I know, I included Horton in Tennessee, but I really think he'll end up with more innings in Iowa regardless and it may even be from day-1. Then you add in Pete Crow-Armstrong, a universal top-30 prospect, and Owen Caissie, who's trending on being a top-50 player on industry lists, and you've got three impact-upside players right off the bat. Rounding out the roster you have multiple players in the everyday line up who will be fun follows, such as Matt Mervis and Alexander Canario launching moonshots (even if you're like me and concerned with their MLB upside, as MiLB hitters, they will be fun), a super slick fielder in Vázquez, and you still haven't even gotten to the likes of Ben Brown, BJ Murray, and Porter Hodge? This is easily the most fun Iowa Cubs team in a while. Yes, the Cubs are top-heavy in the system right now (notice that the power rankings are also a list, from bottom to top) but it also means it's pretty easy to pick and choose who to watch. If the Cubs have Horton or Brown going, this is a must-watch team from Day 1. Which team are you most interested in watching? Do you agree or disagree with this list? Let us know in the comment section below who you want to watch and what your power rankings are! View full article

Well, I'll say this: he wasn't very good until his senior year. So while I appreciate he started for three years, two of them he simply wasn't an MLB draft prospect. And I want to say this as well: I appreciate he made changes to his game to stand out his senior year. But my issue is taken less with who he played for, how often he started, and the changes, but his projection as a prospect and the juice in the squeeze. If you see more juice in the squeeze, I can't disagree at this stage; we're like one month into his professional career and there's little I think anyone can point to, to change anyone's pre-draft opinion on Rivera. Personally, I see someone who doesn't really project at the quick-twitch positions and likely doesn't have the bat at the corners. Like I said...if you see differently, fair! But there's little today that's going to change how I see him. Much like I think today, there'd be little reason to change someone elses' opinion (none of this is really designed to!). But it's why I have him as a weeper in this exercise...I had to find someone, and Rivera fits that bill more than others for me, And if we want to discuss slot and the like, the Cubs went over slot with their fourth pick, Will Sanders and their 7th pick Yahil Melendez. No shade on them either, they're fine picks in their own right, but there were options available to the Cubs that wasn't Josh Rivera and how they divided their slot. Overall, I really liked the 2023 draft, I think the Cubs found a lot of value and upside. Rivera just wasn't a "me" guy in the third. I'll be rooting for Rivera to succeed...any time I don't like someone and I'm wrong about that...well we all win.

I have Cade Horton as my number 1. This is not something I take lightly, and has nothing to do with this spring...I was considering the move in July. I have him there because I think he's a better bet to hit the 90-95% outcome than PCA is, as I think Cade Horton has made more improvement on his weaknesses over the last year (pitch mix) than PCA has (approach). But it's more like...1a and 1b, than 1 and 2, if that makes sense. Both are top-30 MLB prospects and the line between them is razor thin. If you're Team PCA over Team Horton, I'd have little reason to think you're wrong, too.

So I guess I'll clarify my Josh Rivera stance: he's just not the kind of prospect I want with the slot/position that the Cubs had. While utility players have value. I prefer not taking utility player-upside because if they fall short, then the next rung down on the ladder is organizational depth. With assuming that most prospects won't hit their upside...it's why I have some concern. I don't love his profile, and think both body size and bat are questionable; I'm not sure he'll hit well enough to be a viable 3b, not sure he's twitchy enough to be a 2b... No shade at anyone who likes Rivera, either. I know he's got his supporters out there. Todd Johnson spoke glowingly of him on draft day. I certainly hope to be wrong, but profile wise, he's not who I gravitate too. This is more opinion/cup-of-tea thing, and so I listed him as my "weeper" in the sense that I just don't think he's going to be a guy who's going to find his way onto top-20 lists at the end of the season, despite making the NSBB fan-ranked one.

If we are going to use "good faith" then lets stick to the statistic set I used, which is K%, not K/9 and the sentence I took issue with, which dealt only with the idea that his "k-rate" was below average "at every stint" past Double-A. The reason why is because K/9 is significantly worse at showing what we're talking about. You don't have to take my word for it: you can do some reading on it! And I'll provide a second,. as well! But if you're wanting a quicker anecdote, I'll provide a short one below: Pitcher A: 5 IP, 5 K, 1 BB, 2H Pitcher B: 5 IP, 6K, 4 BB, 3H We're going to assume, for anecdote's sake, neither pitcher has any errors occur in the game, nor any double plays. In the above scenario, Pitcher B has 6 strikeouts compared to Pitcher A over the same amount of innings. Using K/9, this means that Pitcher B would look like the better strikeout pitcher, because over 9 innings, he'd strikeout more hitters as his K/9 would be 10.8 compared to the 9 pitcher A provided. But here's the thing: pitcher B isn't a better strikeout pitcher, because K/9 gives preferential to pitchers who walk a lot of hitters and give up more hits because they face more batters. Pitcher B faced four more hitters, so the two pitchers actually have virtually the same K%: around 27%. K% is a far better indicator of how often a pitcher strikes a batter out. Point is: Jordan Wicks K./9 might not be league average, but it's not the right statistic to be using. His K% is 22.2% in Triple-A where as the league average of Triple-A was 22.4%. It's .2% below which is less than a single hitter faced. Jordan Wicks barely threw in Triple-A, racking up just 33 innings. It's not worth it to consider this "below" average considering the sample size and the difference between average and "below". So he was,. virtually, a league average K% pitcher. As well, he generated more whiffs than league average. If we want to accurately describe Jordan Wicks' time in Triple-A when it comes to swings and misses, and strikeouts, this is a far more accurate statement than your original which was "he was below average in every stint above Double-A". So, yes, you're wrong. I've already written about this in an article here on NSBB, I'd recommend checking it out if you haven't. Of course his K/9 over his last 80 IP looks bad: his MLB numbers were really low! But he's on record explaining why that may be. Funnily enough, I came to the same conclusion in that article before he said anything; he was being especially cautious. The point is we can't just combine Triple-A and MLB data, and we can't ignore context. He was perfectly fine in his 33 innings at Triple-A. I've cherry picked...literally nothing. I used a better statistic at one of his two levels to show, your statement was not factual. In the overall concept of what you think Jordan WIcks is, I don't disagree. But that wasn't what I took issue with ever. I do think he's got some work to do at the MLB level in terms of generating swings and misses, but as stated, context suggests he changed himself to limit damage as a rookie. Where I disagreed was your characterization of his time in Triple-A. I still fully do. To this assumption; you are incorrect. The article I linked you was written in 2016 and Fangraphs has written about this concept many times over the last decade plus as well. K% is the better number. K/9 has been more readily available, but has added flaws by giving benefit to high walk pitchers, especially. Look around the industry at the best at covering the sport, such as Dan Szymborski, Lance Browdowski, Jeff Seidler, Craig Goldstein...they're going to default to K% for this reason. We should all be using K% when we can because it is a far better measurement.

Oh horsefeathers. In my head that was "Naz-ee". At no point did my brain read Nazi. horsefeathers.

I think this line that I've bolded is incorrect and skewed. First, let's be real, "every stint" is two months, one month in Iowa and another in Chicago, neither are substantial sample sizes and both have caveats attached. Secondly, we should look deeper into what we're consider "K-Rate". His K/.9 doesn't look great, but K/9 and K% are different numbers and I'd prefer to deal with the latter. In Iowa, Wicks K% was 22.2% and the K% for the league was 22.4%, which is for all-intents-and-purposes, average (not below). Lastly, his whiff% in Triple-A was above average, so he generated plenty of whiffs. He's on record about his MLB performance that he was pitching intentionally to contact, which makes sense of a rookie in a pennant race. That doesn't excuse the rate as a "concern" but also gives context to the sharp decline. I don't expect him to be a K% machine, but a more confident Wicks will generate more whiffs than he was, more than likely. Overall, while I understand the concerns on Wicks (his swinging strike rate at the MLB is something that needs improving), that line is just something I cannot agree with and think it's wrong.

Cool concept! I'll play along: Hitters: Sleeper: Chris Paciolla. Reports were that the Cubs loved this guy out of HS and they've done a good job identifying bats. Call it a deeper cut, but I've got a good feeling here. I know he didn't crush the CPX...it's more "gut" than anything. Keeper: Pedro Ramirez. Posted a 119 wRC+ in Myrtle Beach as a 19 year old. Not very big, but has an advanced plate approach already. Really underrated bat here, and I could see him continuing to hit at the next levels. He's not a superstar, but there's an MLB bat here and he's not on many top-30s. By the end of the season, I think he's a top-20 prospect in the organization. Weeper: Josh Rivera: I wasn't a huge fan of this pick at the time. I really wasn't a major fan of his profile as a third. I hope he proves me wrong, but I just don't think there's a ton to be excited about overall. Pitchers: Sleeper: Porter Hodge. The stuff here, and the arm slot, is so, so, so funky. With even a bit of control (which the Cubs coaxed out of Palencia and Little) there's a leverage righty killer here. He's on the 40-man and he could see innings in Chicago. Honorable mention to Naz Mule who should return and be a pitcher only. He's got a lot of Tink Hence in him...but probably a year early. Keeper: Jaxson Wiggins: reports were really impressive in the fall , he's a Ty Nichols guy, and the stuff is huge. I think he's going to be really nice. Weeper: Michael Arias the SP. I just don't think he's got enough time to get there. There's a route to being a RHP out of the bullpen, but I just don't think he's going to make it as a SP. There's not an obvious "weeper" for me, so this is the best I've got.

Two years ago I'd say that neither Swanson nor Hoerrner had the arm strength to make that work, but the Cubs have gotten plus defensive work out of Hoerner at SS and Madrigal at 3b (and Swanson has had plus defensive work at SS) with weak-rated-arm-strength...and my mind has switched because clearly I was wrong. I think the Cubs will likely make the best infield work, however that looks. I'd guess Hoerner to 3b and Shaw to 2b would be most likely (as I think Swanson is just too good at SS right now, and Shaw won't be capable of playing SS) if that were the route they wanted to go...but I have a feeling they'll do whatever gets their three best infielders in the lineup as much as possible.

Probably at a level so well that it's impossible. He's over 30, so anything he does in Triple-A (or Spring Training) will be rightly met with tons of skepticism. He's been in Triple-A too long, and he's too old, for him to really do anything that matters there numbers wise. He's also not on the 40-man roster, and the Cubs have plenty of players on the 40-man who can handle the position: Hoerner, Madrigal, Morel, Mastroburni will be on the OD roster. Even Michael Busch could be an option there. There would likely have to be a massive rash of injury, and the Cubs would have to be comfortable enough to lose someone off the 40-man just to bring him up, which I can't see happening with how little they have vested in him moving forward. Bote's best bet is likely that he is traded to another organization who gets nailed with injuries. I don't know if a team would take that plunge without the Cubs eating a few million as is, but I think that's his best path to an MLB roster in 2024.

If shortstop is the most settled position the Chicago Cubs have entering the 2024 season, it's likely that second base follows closely behind. Nico Hoerner will hold things down most of the time, but what does the rest of the position look like--and what might the Cubs do in the event of an injury? Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports Strength and stability up the middle are the Cubs' greatest points of pride entering 2024. For at least another few years, they want Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner working the double-play pivot, and they expect big value from each. The Starter: Nico Hoerner 2023 Stats: 7.1% BB%, 12.1% K%, .283/.346/.383, 102 wRC+, 4.7 fWAR 2024 Projections: ZiPS: 6.6 BB%, 12.0% K%, .276/.335/.393, 99 wRC+, 4.0 fWAR Scouting Report: On the surface, Hoerner can feel almost ho-hum at times. He’s a great defender, he makes a ton of contact, but he doesn't do it all that loudly, on the stat page. For example, I know he had a great 2023 season, and yet I forgot he finished just shy of the 5-win mark, according to WAR. That put Hoerner just outside of the top-20 most valuable position players in baseball. The good news for the Cubs is that there is very little in Hoerner’s profile that suggests this won’t continue for the 2024 campaign. ZiPS thinks that Hoerner should continue on his 4+ win path, and I have to agree. While Hoerner isn’t going to wow us with his power, he should make a lot of contact and play great defense. He's a terror on the bases, too, which only drives his value higher. There's even hope for more sustained, well-rounded offense from him in 2024, as our own Matthew Trueblood wrote about in January. If there is any real concern over Hoerner, it's that he’s had some injury issues in the past, spending time on the IL in every season prior to 2023. With that being the only concern, the Cubs should rest easy for the time in which Hoerner is going to be in the lineup. Other Options: Nico is the unquestioned starting option at second base for the Cubs. Coming off back-to-back 4+ fWAR seasons, the slick-fielding Horner will start most of the games at the position. Despite that, the Cubs have built up a pretty impressive group of players behind Hoerner who could fill in for a rest day, or a dreaded trip to the IL. For most off days, the Cubs could turn to one of three players projected to make the Opening Day roster; Christopher Morel, Nick Madrigal and Miles Mastrobuoni. All three of these players are likely in line for starts at third, but will also be available to shift to second. Each offers a slightly different skill set, so who gets the start could rely on what the team needs; Morel provides power, Madrigal brings bat-to-ball skills, and Mastrobuoni has a good plate approach. All three, as well, could fill in for a short-term IL stint. While not an option at the start of the 2024 campaign, Matt Shaw could also factor into the position. Shaw has been focusing on learning and honing his abilities at third, but much like the other three players mentioned, he may be more of a natural option at second, if needed. It would take a few things for the Cubs to end up needing Shaw at the keystone (a long-term injury to Hoerner in the second half of the season, coupled with a strong first half of the season for Shaw in Iowa, for starters), but it’s on the table. The Big Question: What do the Cubs do if Nico needs an extended IL stint? Despite playing in 150 games last season, Hoerner has had a penchant for ending up on the IL throughout his professional career. He’s had broken bones, as well as soft-tissue injuries, so it’s likely that Hoerner will land on the IL at some point during the season. It’s never easy to replace a player who’s put up back-to-back four-win seasons, but the Cubs would be in a unique position to replace him with quantity or quality, depending on the length of the absence. The Cubs are in great shape at second base. They have a young, energetic, balanced star at the position, and a number of alternatives on whom to call if that star goes down. In a spring filled with uncertainty, this is one area of comfortable clarity. View full article

For what it's worth, Lance Brodzowski had him topping at 94 and sitting 92-93 consistently. Which, to be fair, should be exactly what we expect. But frankly, I'm not sure I care. His arm slot today was *insane* as was the movement. And that means more to me than 1mph here or there.

It's not overwhelming, but it's a nice return for the White Sox, all things considered. A quick comparison to the Cubs system is something like: Drew Thorpe is probably an improved version of Jordan Wicks, Jairo Iriate is a Ben Brown type of big stuff, but struggles to throw a ton of strikes (might be a mid-rotation guy, might be a monster out of the pen), and Zavala is a high end lottery ticket bat. Also, Steven Wilson is there, I guess. Overall, probably a fair trade. Cease had some red flags from last year, but has been really good in the past. White Sox got a safer SP in Thorpe, a bigger wild card in Iriate, and a lottery ticket in Zavala. And maybe they flip Wilson at the deadline for something.

I know Sharma said they wouldn't sign Snell... But Snell just went and followed Bellinger, Wisdom, Fowler, and Benny the Bull, it appears, very recently. We see this thing from time to time so who knows. Just an interesting tidbit.