Jason Ross

Fangraphs usually runs a "Looking back at..." article from Dan Szymborski himself. Dan's the bomb, and he's always willing to be really introspective at the projection. I really enjoy his twitter if you don't follow. He'll jump around from really cool baseball analysis, to mocking the Rockies, to some weird AI generated image. Worthy follow. Here's Dan's 2022 retrospective.

Content schedule, I'm sure. 30 teams, want to draw it out a bit. Plus, most teams are generally settled most offseasons. We're in a bit of a weird one right now. With that said, even with a few teams likely to add a 3 or so win player here or there, 99% of players projections are ready to rock and roll. So I don't blame them.

First off, welcome to the boards! in terms of ZiPS, I don't really agree with that. I think prediction systems, in general, get a bad wrap because people misuse them. They're not iron clad guarantees, but a way of taking input data, in this case, past performance, batted ball data, age-regression curves, and then outputting a likely, and, realistic, possibility. Whether or not it's favorable for the Cubs, the output is unbiased and just...information. Where people become disappointed with ZiPS is when ZiPS is off, but again, I think it's user error more than ZiPS being erroneous...it's that people sometimes can't recognize that ZiPS can't predict wild change, batted ball variance, improvement, injury, etc. I'm a fan of looking at things like ZiPS because it gives you a realistic idea of where players and your team sits. It's just important to also recognize the general recipe as well, and how things can change based on ingredients.

I think this is setting up perfectly for a Chapman to San Francisco and Cody Bellinger to Chicago situation barring a team like the Angels or whatever coming in at Boras' price.

Turner to Blue Jays. 1 year. Per Morosi.

I don't think Matt Chapman is as good as a fit as others. He's someone who hits the ball hard, but you have to fix his approach. As well, his bat is similar in profile to many players the Cubs have: higher strikeout, flyball, struggles on fastballs (Cubs were in the botom-10 on fastballs last year in wOBA) and is right handed (the Cubs seemingly are looking for a left handed hitter). On top, it's not like he's just had an issue with production last year; it goes back his last 2000 PA's: he's been a 110 wRC+ hitter. Yes he plays 3b, and yes the glove, but I think in terms of style...he's someone the Cubs have. As well, the infield is pretty locked in right now with Swanson and Hoerner. Do we really want to further lock in the infield for the next 3 seasons? I'd side with Bellinger. His data suggest he overperformed. With that said, I think Bellinger's ability to play a few positions, his left handed bat, his low-K, high-contact, high-lift bat fits a good profile for the Cubs. He's younger, as well. I wouldn't say he's so much of a good fit they should spend $200m, but in a vacuum, I think Bellinger just fits what the Cubs need better....even if there's some questions on how exactly he fits.

On Saturday morning, the Cubs agreed to terms with Hector Neris, formerly of the Houston Astros. Expected to help bolster the back end of the Cubs bullpen, what should you expect out of the fiery right hander in 2024? Image courtesy of © Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK Hector Neris has been a staple of MLB bullpens for quite some time now. Coming up with the Phillies and, most recently, a member of the Houston Astros (even helping them win the 2022 World Series), Neris has racked up nearly 550 appearances in his career. A high strikeout - and sometimes higher walk - reliever, Neris can be deployed in an eighth-inning role or the closer's role if needed. His history with being a closer and his strikeout tendency are significant reasons for his addition by the Cubs. With that said, a deeper dive into Hector Neris' 2023 season does show a few cracks in the armor and a few ways to fix them. One of the cracks in that armor is that Neris is currently seeing a decline in his velocity. With his average fastball velocity sliding to around 93mph, the Astros' leverage reliever finished in the bottom 32% of all pitchers in average fastball velocity. This is down from prior years, where his fastball sat in the mid-94-mph range; just last season, his fastball was in the top half in terms of velocity. The good news is that this didn't hurt his overall strikeout numbers, as his K% was still over 28%, but fastball velocity decline can signal aging issues, and Neris is set to turn 35 soon. In 2023, Neris had some luck, as well. Despite limiting hard contact well over his career, Hector's career BABIP against sits around .280, perfectly normal for most pitchers. Last year, however, his BABIP against was just .219, a likely unsustainable and unrepeatable number. Also, the big-bodied pitcher stranded 90% of the runners he allowed on base (and Neris does walk a hitter or two over the average). This was good for the third-best strand rate in the league and is a statistic that varies from year to year. Despite the sparkling sub 2.00 ERA, he had an FIP of 3.83 and an xFIP in the mid-4s. Along with the velocity drop, it's easy to see where regression would occur if these numbers held stable. So what can the Cubs do? First, his pitch mix can be altered a little bit. For a pitcher losing velocity on his fastball, Neris has seen his fastball usage spike since moving to Houston, from just 36.8% of the time in 2021 with the Phillies to over 51.7% of the time last year. This has seen a 12% decline in the usage of his split-finger fastball, resulting in him going from a ground ball pitcher to an extreme fly ball pitcher. With the Cubs defense and the declining velocity on the fastball, I expect Neris will be encouraged to feature his split-finger more. Speaking of the split-finger fastball, it's a good pitch, and I'm not entirely sure why he didn't feature it more. His split-finger fastball was his most-whiffed pitch in the zone and his most-chased pitch out of the zone in 2023. It shouldn't be surprising, then, to note that it had the lowest wOBA Against and the second-lowest xWOBA Against only to his slider (which he rarely throws to begin with). What's interesting is to notice how Neris' in-zone miss rates have changed over those two years, likely due to the decline in the fastball. Interestingly enough, his pitch map looks nearly identical between 2021 and 2023. But where he's getting those misses has changed dramatically. Below, on the left, you'll see his 2021 season, and in 2023, on the right. Neris got far more swings and misses at the top of the zone, probably due to an overuse of the fastball and the decline of the velocity on that pitch. He is not getting the swing and miss at the top of the strike zone like he was. The logical conclusion should be to utilize the best chase pitch you have, the split-finger and lower that heat map to the bottom of the zone and out of the zone. Below, you'll see his Chase Rate in 2023. Notice where the chases are? They're low. That's the splitter. Finally, we can see how this played out on the hit charts. Again, using 2021 (left) and 2023 (right), we can see how many more ground balls Neris got between the two seasons, something which dried up for him. If it's not clear by now, the Cubs will likely look to get the 2021 version of the reliever instead of the the 2023 version. The 2021 version threw his best pitch a lot more and used the infield more. Again, that is a strength for the Cubs. The 2023 version had some good luck to get to the ERA he had. And even though the 2023 version had two runs less on his ERA, the 2021 version had the better xFIP by nearly an entire run. The Cubs cannot rely on his LOB% and BABIP to continue at the 2023 levels. It is unlikely that his velocity will return to 2021 levels when he was averaging 1.5 mph more on the pitch, but the Cubs can squeeze a little more juice out of the pitch. And none of this should suggest he shouldn't continue to strike people out: Neris' K% in 2021 was in the 91st percentile of all of baseball. We can't expect that high of a K% at his age, but because he's using the infield a bit more, it shouldn't mean he's skipping the swing and miss potential. Overall, this is a solid signing and an arm that should allow him to remain a high-leverage reliever. His age, fastball velocity, and luck statistics can show that some issues are forming, but on a one, and possibly two-year deal, the Cubs avoid potential long-term issues. With a pitch mix tweak, the Cubs should get a reliever who can be a lock-down-eighth-inning type for the contract's length, barring some unforeseen occurrence. The Cubs grabbed a good reliever on a better deal. What do you think of the Cubs signing of Hector Neris? Do you think it's a good move for the backend of the bullpen? Do you think the Cubs should continue to add or do you think they're done? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

I can gladly admit; I liked Cade Horton a lot draft night. I'll also admit...he's been better than I could have imagined, despite that.

There's likely some regression in store...his BABIP was super low, the velocity was down a tick, and the LOB% is very high...but a solid back end reliever all in all. He has some closing experience, so in the event of an Alzolay injury can step up. Having him with options are good. The Cubs can cut bait if he's hurt or really regressed, Neris can stick around if he'd like if he's good or choose to leave. I'll try to dig deeper into the "why" but his GB% has basically nosedived last two years. Wonder if there's a pitch mix change to bring that up a bit to use our infield more. Cubs are some of the best at velocity increases too. B+ signing all in all.

I'll admit: working his way through the MiLB in 2022 and into 2023, I was pretty excited for Mervis. The data I had available to me (at the time) suggested a pretty good approach and bat, and the eye test suggested it as well. Even the small run in the MLB had underlying interesting metrics. Then I got access to statcast data for Matt Mervis in Triple-A...and I've soured on him, because the lines hide the processes you can better see with the statcast stuff. I don't think he's a dead prospect, but I don't think he's got much of a pathway to find success in Chicago right now. He's blocked many places. And with his age, he's at a point where he kind of needs to play....and realistically that place he plays should be at the MLB level (Triple-A just isn't challenging him, even with some iffy processes). I think there's some progress over the winter that can be had, but I'm not where I was before on him, and I think I can see why the Cubs were concerned (and didn't promote him in September over other players, like Young). I really hope he succeeds, but I don't have the confidence in Mervis I had previously.

Yeah, I think defensively Caissie is world above Schwarber. There were scouting reports of people being so wow'ed about his athleticism for his size in 2020 that some thought he could handle CF down the road, ala Joey Gallo. Those were clearly overblown, but I don't think anyone ever saw Kyle and went "you know what I think that linebacker can do? Center horsefeathers field". Caissie probably sizes out of RF down the road, and with Suzuki there, maybe Bellinger around, with Alcantara....etc...there's a good chance he never really plays it in Chicago even early. With that said, the arm is 55/60 grade and the movement isn't so bad he can't do it for a bit, either. I'd expect negative DRSs, probably like -3, -4, or -5 type stuff, but that's within "acceptably bad" levels if you're hitting.

Oh horsefeathers man, I had no idea. One time I got hit in the elbow and it really hurt, so I get it....(just kidding - for real). Congrats on being entirely more badass than me and doing all of that; literally can't imagine.

The K issues are there, but I really think they're overblown to a degree. First, we have to remember that he was really young for his league; for most of the time, he was the youngest player. Secondly, the pre-tacked baseball legitimately took K% and skyrocketed it. Then you have his struggles against LHP. On the surface it seems "arbitrary" to use July 6th as a cut off, but that's when the pre-tacked ball was lost. The rest of the way...Owen Caissie, not legally able to drink but facing Double-A pitching...struck out under 23% of the time against RHP. Would we consider that a ton of K in his game? I certainly wouldn't. Now, flip side...he K'd out of his shoes against left handed pitching over that span. I think it's safe to say that Caissie is trending to be a platoon hitter, and I know we've got platoon hitter as like, a massive negative connotation, but I think we have to accept it's okay as we see how the league is adjusting more and more to platoon guys. He's left handed and lefties, across the league, are getting worse and worse against left handed pitching. So, Caissie is just a left-handed hitter like most of the league (it's why it makes left handers who aren't trending that way worth their weight in gold *cough*Michael Busch*cough*). So I think the overall numbers kind of hide this improvement. Caissie's K issues exists, but they're probably far more controllable than we realize. Just let him smash right handed pitching and the K's go away. Sit him against lefties and find him a buddy.

Oh yeah, that wasn't at anyone in particular, just the general.

Yeah, I'd be a little skeptical of that plan. Especially with the money left. I just don't think that's going to happen. The Cubs, themselves, have signaled they want to do more. Whether it's Bellinger or another off the radar hitter (they pulled Busch out of thin air), I think they'll add at least one more nice addition to deepen the lineup, I'm not convinced they'll add two starting types like some, but one, I think, they will for sure. We may just have to be patient into mid-Feb.

Busch doesn't really have terrible platoon numbers over his time in Triple-A. I think he'll sit, especially early, against tough lefties, but doubt he's really platooning overall, either.

Oh, it's not that I think Hoskins didn't get what I'd expect. It's that I think this is what Boras expected Hoskins to get the entire time. Boras has Snell, Montgomery, and well, Bellinger out there, yet. I wouldn't count on Boras on any of them. I didn't expect the Cubs for Hoskins after Busch. But I'm less inclined to believe anyone is getting a discount on those three, either. Boras finds a team. Somehow. Someway.

I'm the biggest Owen-Caissie-Stan here, I'll admit it. I liked him way back in the 2020 draft, was ectatic the Cubs nabbed him in the Darvish trade, and have enjoyed his development. His K% numbers on the season really hide the progress he's been making there, and as you pointed out, his pull ability has gotten better. Early in his career, his "hit box" (where Caissie made initial contact with the baseball) was really deep. He was so patient, and has relatively fast hands, that he was able to let the ball travel a bit extra and still hit it well. It played into his K's a bit, but also his opposite field reliance. He's since worked on that, and he's making contact more in front of the ball and less behind it. With this said, I don't think he'll play a big role in 2024 with the Cubs. He's likely ticketed to Iowa where he'll play some 1b, and some RF. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Chicago by September, but I also expect growing pangs. Owen Caissie has followed a pretty consistent pattern the last two years: he struggles early at a new level (being an extreme under-ager) where he then begins to figure it out, and by the end of the season has seemingly solved the current challenge. Iowa being a decent step up from Tennessee, and likely one which will challenge him even greater up and in (attacking the levers), I think he'll have a line that has people here worrying through mid-May or so. By September, I think he'll have turned the corner and he could be a very fun bench bat for the stretch run. Where I think he'll effect is 2025. It gives the Cubs a ton of flexibility. If they get Bellinger in on an early opt-out deal, he could be "next man up" at 1b/DH. If Busch can play 3b, or if Morel can play 3b, Caissie can fall into a 1b/RF/DH role where he can kind of "bounce" and get 4 days a week in the lineup against RHP. He does look like someone who struggles against LHP (his K% against RHP was much better), so he's someone who might never be an "every day" guy anyways.

Good reminder on Boras: just when you think there isn't a market, Boras finds a market and gets around what he wants. I think we all thought Boras/Hoskins were looking for something similar to this: 2 years, with an opt out, around $17-20m a year. What'd he get just when you squinted and went "Yeah, but where?" Oh, he got...2 years...and an opt out....at $17m aav...from the Brewers? They had a need but they didn't seem like they were swimming in those waters. We'll see how this plays out with the rest of the Boras crew. But Boras pulls these rabbits often.

I would guess that's true. It's hard to determine his market fully, but with a few weeks left, if his ultimate goal was pitching for a true contending team, the Pirates weren't an obvious choice and you'd have to figure a team higher up the perceived pecking order would have offered a contract. Maybe no one was interested. He did sign in KC last year, but that was more clear as a rebound. Thought with his trade value last year a more contending team would have come in. This likely gets him on a contender by July, but with little control over whom. Who knows. Mostly just spit balling. Suspect you're right, ultimately, and he doesn't care if he sets up or not.

Him headed to Pitt is interesting. Possibly something to monitor as a Cub fan. Chapman probably shouldn't have to "settle" being the setup guy. But last I checked, the Pirates had Bednar. A bit of an odd choice unless there was no Chapman market to speak of. The Cubs *were* connected to Bednar at the deadline, and we know the Cubs have been connected to Clase. Just food for thought.

Awful to hear. Both for your father and Ryno. Wishing the best for both.

I think we have to ignore arm strength as a major deterring factor with how the Cubs see defense. We've seen the Cubs turn Hoerner and his relatively weak arm into a plus defensive SS. They went out of their way to pay $170m to a relatively weak armed SS...he was wonderful still. They successfully moved Madrigal to 3b despite the arm. However they proceed defensively on the infield, I think we have to do so with an understanding that they do things their own way, and maybe don't factor in pure arm strength as importantly as we the fans feel they should.