Jason Ross

My big thing is the swing decisions. That heatmap of PCA on fastballs in a no strike count shows you a kid who just...does. I want to see him make better swing decisions. It won't be an easy button for pitchers, but I think that's the difference between PCA the mid 80's wRC+ hitter, and PCA who's an above 100 wRC+ hitter. Better swing decisions, better plans at the plate and you'll get the guy you want. I tend to preach patience with prospects as much as possible. I'll trade some now-time, for more development if possible. If he can show me improved swing decisions consistently, I'll let him work on the rest, as you said. But that's my issue with him; he doesn't know a good strike from a bad strike right now. And I doubt he's ever as good at that, as say, like Michael Busch, but he's got to get better.

Hitters, in general, have issues with velo up right now. Launch angle hitting, which really is just a better way to get the ball to make contact with the bat at a more favorable plane, does struggle to getting high velocity. With Pete Crow-Armstrong, a decent amount of this is learning when to swing, and when not to swing. I've included a heat map of his swing and miss rate below, as well as his chase rate, specifically on fastballs, during his time at Triple-A I think these two paint the picture of where I think his approach needs to mature. PCA cannot lay off high and inside, nor can he effectively hit that up and out pitch. He does make enough contact up and inside, however. This is a decent way to visualize his approach issue; he's just too aggressive as of now, unable to lay off up and way in, in hopes it's up and in the zone. I've also included PCA's swing rate with no strikes. He's all over the place. Compare that to Michael Busch's Triple-A swing rate with no strikes. See how much more measured it is? Now, Michael Busch is older, with a very different approach; he's very patient and waits for his pitch (this is one of the reasons why I'm really high on Busch being good at the next level...he's got great swing decisions). But PCA is just swinging wildly right now. If it's a fastball, and it's no strikes, he's just going to swing if it's in the zone, or, if it's high and inside. What I'm really hoping is that if he's looking slow to diagnose fastballs right now is that it's a symptom of him working to refine his approach. He's fighting his instincts right now to swing, and his mental processes will take some time to adjust. Now, I have no idea if that's the case, but what I hope. He's going to have to crawl before he can walk, and walk before he can run here. But I'm hoping this is the first step in a more measured, mature approach.

I mean, his second half was worse than his first, but I'm not so sure he really ran out of steam. He did have his worst month of the season in August, then posted a 133 wRC+ in September. August sucked on ice, but he's probably going to be a bit streaky because of the power. His K rate dipped significantly in September, likely a blip, but probably as much of a blip as say, a 33 wRC+ in August, too. Reality is, it's hard to fWAR as a DH. He was just .,5 fWAR off of Jorge Soler, a DH who had a wRC+ of 126 last season, but also 150 PA's away. Soler was a 1.9 fWAR, and the 8th highest fWAR of any DH In baseball. I'm less worried about fWAR when it comes to a DH, similarly akin to how RP fWAR runs. It's a bit funky and prefer to look more at things like wRC+ when speaking of DH's. Overall, I think Morel had a really nice offensive season, though one I agree is less than ideal with concerns about K% and contact rate. With 800 PA's under his belt, however, it's also fair to point out the fairly stable sample size we have to suggest that he's shown the ability to out power that, too. Main point: I understand why people are talking up Morel as a 3b option. If he can figure it out defensively to even be just "below average" he's going to be a nice player. I still have major reservations.

I think it's fair to point out his OBP and his K issues (with that said, his OBP last year was .313, pedantic and all). His fWAR, maybe a little less. DH is going to do a lot of work there, and the hope with the Morel at 3b is that he's a capable enough 3b. Where I think people are hopeful is that despite the K's and the OBP, he's a 114 wRC+ hitter over 800 PA's and fresh off a 119 wRC+. This is a not-insignificant sample size over two seasons. A 119 wRC+ at 3b puts him in the conversation next to Max Muncy offensively in 2023. I don't know if I have much hope for Morel to make that transition. There's plenty of athleticism to make you think he doesn't have to be a DH, but that doesn't seem to be translating. Clearly there's hurdles, from questions over his footwork and his arm slot, and his history at the position in the minors...it doesn't seem likely. With that said, I understand why people are excited about the prospect; even if Morel is like, a -5 or -6 OAA at third, if he's a 114 wRC+ hitter...he's likely a 2.5 fWAR third baseman, a clear upgrade over the guys we have. There's enough there that it's possible, however likely or unlikely you personally believe in it. I know I want him to figure it out there; that's the best outcome for all, really.

It wasn't a direct comparison, but the idea that the Cubs aren't going to look at an age-24 season and entirely discount it like fans are. There's a reason why Brennen Davis won't be a top-50 prospect next season, almost, regardless of whatever kind of season he has and Busch is. But I also don't think the Cubs are going to ignore anything he does because he's 24, as was alluded to. No one should "force" anything, either, but the route to relevancy in Chicago in 2024 is not very likely. The first hurdle he has to clear is health, the second is showing that he's not only fixed, but improved on all of the issues he's had. He can't do that in 45 days barring some immense 45 days that we'd still have to wonder "how repeatable is this?". Then he has to clear the hurdles in front of him such as Mike Tauchmann who will be given first shot at 4th OF'er, Alexander Canario who's out of option years and ahead of him today, and Owen Caissie who's the better prospect and may be hitting well at Triple-A to even make the MLB roster in a way that will matter. For a player such as Davis who's basically been averaging roughly 50 games a season over the last two, the Cubs almost assuredly would rather he play versus sitting on the bench behind Suzuki and Happ. He really needs games, reps and the like. Being the 5th OF'er in Chicago is probably less interesting to the Cubs than him being the starting option in Iowa. It just a very long route for Brennen Davis to become Cub-relevant this season. Maybe it happens, but it probably requires a confluence of multiple injuries to others or high incompetence, plus Davis' health, plus Davis' progression. Any one of those at this point seems at best a coin flip, and all three seem unlikely. It's probably a better bet he's an option as a 4th OF'er in 2025 with a successful season, or even yet, he's a useful tradechip come July, than him really making any impact on Chicago Cubs on his own in 2024. I'm certainly rooting for him, it's just unlikely.

Hard to not just feel awful for Davis. It's incredibly hard to make the MLB when you're healthy. Sometimes there are prospects who it feels like the house has stacked the deck against, and damn, does it feel that way for him. Hopefully it's a small one and he will get back in a week or 10 days.

Well, I think you're imparting how fans may interpret a full 2024 season in Triple-A versus how the Cubs internally would view this. I don't doubt that fans on twitter, reddit, and probably some here would discount any season Davis put up in Triple-A at age 24 due to his age. Personally, I think that's silly; plenty of prospects don't have success until age 24 at Triple-A and Davis has a strong argument due to injury, a lost covid-season and the like as to why age-24 would be "his year" finally. I also am confident the Cubs wouldn't. Let's not forget, we're one month removed from the Cubs trading Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope for 26 year old Michael Busch. Now, they may look past something such as a strong wRC+ (or a weak one) and spend more time concerned about processes (much like why I think despite the solid wRC+ the Cubs are seemingly less excited about Matt Mervis). But I don't think the Chicago Cubs would think that a healthy and productive 24 year old campaign in Iowa was not proving anything, either, based solely on his age the way some fans may.

I think TT is suggesting is that there's really little reason to rush Brennen Davis to the MLB at this point. He really does need to show that he can finally blend quality with quantity. He's struggled with that since, if we're going to be real with ourselves, the Futures Game. He's had moments, but Triple-A has exposed him to not being able to hit high-hard stuff. That's pretty normal for guys with his body; he's a tall and lanky build and he has long levers...that's a typical weakness (Alcantara struggles with this too). Davis finally showed he could make contact a lot, but he traded that for all of his quality of contact. Unless there's a pressing need for a corner, Davis needs a while in Triple-A to actually develop. He's missed the better part of the last two seasons. He's young enough he's not an entirely written off prospect, but he's struggled long enough that he has to actually prove it. Let him cook in Triple-A for a bit and prove he can both hit high-and-hard while gaining back some confidence before you just decide that despite not showing that ability at Triple-A for any extended amount, that he will just do it at the MLB level.

I think most of this is fair. Not sure I think Wisdom is capable of getting near 110 wRC+ in full time (I think in very curated PA's he can get there but given more run, Wisdom tends to fall off, from what I can tell). Morel/Busch feel capable of getting somewhere between 110-120 wRC+ if things go well, though I can see situations where both struggle. I love some Owen Caissie but still think he's going to be developing come June. His last three levels (Low-A, High-A and Double-A) he's started similarly in all: struggling for the first ~45 days or so, then finding his footing, starting to really take off around July-ish. Excpect Triple-A will really work on hitting him up and in and think we will see a similar pattern. I think he's the best bat in the system up and down, and has the biggest upside, but even I'd be shocked to see him come up in June and tear it up; as much as I don't think Morel or Busch would be All-Stars in 2024, I think that's still a shade more likely.

I suspect we're going to look back on our lower levels and be happily surprised come the end of the season at some of the fun pop ups that come out of it. It's fair today to wonder where those prospects will come from, but there's a host of guys who have interest. We'll likely get our first extended (or even, for some, their first) looks this season at some recent draft picks like Paciolla, Mule, Wiggins, Carico, Sanders, Rosario who are very young but have some loud tools. As well, guys like Rujano, Arias, Rojas, should be a year further in their developments. The Cubs have also had some recent success finding college bats in rounds 12-20, so it wouldn't be surprising to see like, a Carter Trice, Brian Kalmer, or Jonathon Long to really break out at South Bend. The low levels lack the super-high draft picks right now that you're just jazzed at (thanks to guys like Shaw and Horton speed running those levels, and the recent trade of Ferris), but I think there's some real breakout candidates down there. I can't tell you which ones will or won't, but I really trust the Cubs developmental system right now and am confident we're going to find some guys to watch down there.

I'm not sure I agree with that. The Cubs have Busch, with Bellinger as a fall back once Pete Crow-Armstrong is ready. There's good reason why Busch has been ranked top-50 by a few industry rankings, and it'd be hard pressed to find better coverage than Bellinger. There's options as well internally like Matt Mervis, Garrett Cooper, Patrick Wisdom and even Dom Smith has a smear of appeal if the Cubs can find/change something. I'd say most teams don't have as promising as a 1/2 as Busch/Bellinger. Once you get to third in any depth chart, for any position, you start finding questionable options...mostly because if they weren't questionable, they wouldn't be third, ya know?

The Chicago Cubs have struggled to lock down first base ever since the departure of Anthony Rizzo. Have they finally solved the position long-term with the addition of Michael Busch? Or is Cody Bellinger going to spend much of the coming campaign at the cold corner? Image courtesy of © BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK Even before bringing back Cody Bellinger on a deal lasting anywhere from one year to three, the Cubs made a bold move aimed at shoring up first base, acquiring Michael Busch in a four-player trade with the Dodgers. The Starter: Michael Busch 2023 Stats: 9.9% BB%, 33.3% K%, .167/.247/.292, 49 wRC+, -.5 fWAR 2024 Projections: ZiPS: 9.8 BB%, 25.6% K%, .251/.336/.453 115 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR Scouting Report: While he will likely see some time at other positions throughout the year, the Cubs have signaled that Busch will likely be the team’s first baseman for most of the season (at least to start). The former Dodger may see time at second and third here or there, but first seems like his home. Busch struggled at times in 2023 in his first run at the MLB level, but the industry remains fairly high on him, with consensus rankings in the top 100 and a top-50 ranking by both MLB.com and Baseball America. Busch has an impressive combination of bat-to-ball and power skills, which means even if he’s “only” a first baseman, he has enough tools in his shed to be an above-average bat at an offensive driven position. Approach-wise, he’s patient, almost to a fault, forcing pitchers to come into the zone. Traditionally, Busch does not have terrible platoon splits in the minor leagues, and really feasts on fastballs. The best development in his game from a somewhat lackluster 2022 to 2023 was Busch’s ability to make adjustments and get around on high-velocity fastballs. As the Cubs ranked in the bottom-10 last season against fastballs in general, a fastball-feasting Busch would seem to fit right in. I wrote more in depth about what we can expect to see from him in 2024 in another article, which goes into a lot of the improvements that Busch made, and just why I'm so excited about him. Other Options: Bringing back Bellinger has made the Cubs positively awash in good alternatives to Busch. While the slight lean right now must be toward Bellinger starting the season in center field, it's not hard to envision Pete Crow-Armstrong forcing the issue and Bellinger ending up spending time at first, with Busch shuttled to the DH spot. Meanwhile, a player like Patrick Wisdom goes from an iffy platoon option and first fallback plan to an enviable secondary fallback guy. The Cubs also have another young player in Matt Mervis on the 40-man roster who could step in if needed. While both Mervis and Busch struggled in their initial stints in the show, I have much more confidence in Busch. I also wrote, recently, about Mervis and his second-half-2023 struggles. Long story short: the swing decisions got worse with time, and that’s just not good. Could Christopher Morel provide coverage at first? Earlier in the offseason, the Cubs spoke about giving the powerful right-handed hitter some looks at first. Morel’s position is in flux, and the Cubs are clearly looking for a way to get his thump into the lineup when they can. While he’s more likely to see time at the designated hitter position, there’s a chance that the Cubs will give Busch some time at third, or that Morel will take to the first base position, and could see time here. At the moment, he seems to be in the driver's seat for the third-base gig, instead. The Big Question: Is Busch the answer at first base? The Cubs didn’t get Busch for free, and had to part with two pretty interesting prospects to get him in Jackson Feris (whom Northside Baseball ranked their ninth-best prospect in the fall) and Zyhir Hope, a relatively big-money 11th-round selection in the 2023 MLB Draft. This would both suggest that the Cubs really believe in Busch, but also remind us that the Cubs should hope they have read the situation well. The good news is that, with Bellinger in the fold, the Cubs have some cover internally if they feel as though they need to pivot. Moving Busch to the DH spot wouldn't be ideal, but platooning him there or at first would be palatable. The Cubs have tremendous depth at first base now, so regardless of how well Busch does, they should have options in 2024. Long-term, however, the Cubs really should be hoping that the former Dodger pans out. If he does, it will be hard to argue that the Cubs didn’t win their end of the trade, getting the first base position locked down for the better half of the next decade, at the very least. View full article

There were a few tweets this offseason suggesting Ballesteros was making progress behind the plate. Perhaps Counsell can bring some of the Brewer magic with him, too. He obviously wasn't the catching guru, but I can't imagine he wasn't in the room or deaf the entire time, either. It's optimistic to think Ballesteros catches in the MLB, but not so optimistic I'm counting it out yet.

They may, they may not. I don't really subscribe to the idea that simply because someone becomes a reliever they automatically get better at things like strikeouts and swings and misses. The reality is that the bullpen can begin to hide issues like consistency and command (shorter sample size, easier to pull the plug when it's not working) but K's are more dependent on what pitches you have, how you used it and the like. I can't say I know a lot about Thompson. Profile looks interesting enough that a reliever is on the table. But how he uses his fastball in the zone, where does he miss with the curveball...these things will determine far more if his K's should or shouldn't be expected to improve. I think the bullpen will help hide the walks, but beyond that...he's a pretty big mystery. Not complaining, mind, you, I think he's as good of a return as you could hope for...just disagreeing on the concept of K development being likely with a change or a move.

Appreciate it!

The Cubs and the White Sox have worked together and completed another trade, this time sending LHP Bailey Horn to the South Side in exchange for RHP Matt Thompson. Who is Matt Thompson and why did the Cubs make this kind of trade? Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports On Tuesday, the Cubs traded left-handed pitcher Bailey Horn to the Chicago White Sox for right-handed pitcher Matt Thompson. Horn, 26, was a fifth round pick of the White Sox back in 2020 out of Auburn. The Cubs acquired the southpaw reliever when they sent Ryan Tepera to the Sox in the summer of 2021. Protected by the Cubs in November 2023 with his addition to the 40-man roster, Horn now makes his way back to his original organization. Despite striking out a hitter per inning in Triple-A and some fairly dazzling stuff, Horn never found the consistency to throw enough strikes for a callup for the Cubs. The White Sox, in their rebuilding era, likely have more of a pathway to making parent club than the Cubs. Coming back the Cubs' way is right-handed pitcher Matt Thompson. Thompson was regarded highly in the 2019 draft, being picked 45th overall out of high school and commanding a signing bonus north of $2 million. Sadly for the righty, success at the minor-league level has not come easy. Much like the aforementioned Horn, Thompson did not find the strike zone enough for the White Sox to see a future for him in their system. There's enough in Thompson's profile to like; a decent fastball that can hit 95mph, and a plus curveball. The a switch to a relief role seems likely to be considered. The Cubs have a better developmental system for pitchers in place than the White Sox. So while it'd be pretty hard to predict future success for a prospect who's fallen on hard times, Thompson is only 23 years old and could still find success with some tweaks. He's an intriguing add for the Cubs, and a name it wouldn't be shocking to see pop up some day. The need for this type of a move was created when the Cubs re-signed Cody Bellinger to a three year, $80 million contract very early on Sunday morning. With the 40-man roster full, the Cubs needed to clear a space so that the Bellinger contract could become official. Names such as Keegan Thompson and Patrick Wisdom were thought to be on the chopping block, but it was Bailey Horn who got his name called in the end. Matthew Thompson, on the other hand, does not take up a 40-man roster spot, giving the Cubs an interesting prospect with a pedigree and the ability to add Cody Bellinger to the official 40 man roster. View full article

Also makes sense. Bailey Horn was similar to Thompson in that he was an option in a sea of many options.

Thompson makes a lot of sense as someone to remove from the 40-man. The Cubs need a spot, and Thompson has yet to really settle in as a consistent MLB-definite player at the age of 29. He's had some bursts of interesting data, but it's never consistent. The Cubs, as well, have a host of young arm options such as Palencia and Little who may be left on the outside looking in to the start the season (and would, IMO be ahead of Thompson for looks), as well as Brown and Horton who could realistically jump him come June or July. There are even intriguing arms like Ethan Roberts who are coming back from TJS who could present as an interesting mid-season arm if he can find his form. Overall, the Cubs have a lot of options and Thompson is one of many. It's not hard to him as potentially superfluous.

Many of them are pre-arb or signed contracts a few years ago. Inflation is real, and players who are pre-arb or even at arb, don't make $30m. Based on inflation and contract trends, players who are under 30 years old and are consistent 4 win players will likely be looking at AAV's nearing the $30m range moving forward. Maybe a shade lower, but generally, in that range.

The Cubs certainly love themselves some options. This feels like a nice gamble for a world in which they think Morel handles 3b, as they'd probably be better off with Cooper against RHP over Wisdom in that case. Being that it's NRI, there's little risk in it. And if Morel can't handle 3b, then it's likely they'll roll with Wisdom.

I mean, not loving Mervis likely exactly means that. Do you expect the Cubs to prioritize a player they don't love on the 26 man roster? Because I certainly don't. Thats why they didn't play him last year and they just signed *another* NRI 1b. We can try to justify why they called up Young, but you have no idea. That's based, 100% on what you think. What we know is the Cubs thought Jared Young was a better bet in September and then DFA'd him. That doesn't bode well. This isn't about how you and I feel about Mervis. With that said, his Triple A data last year upon his return is quite worrisome from a contact perspective and that's a big indicator of future success, so I'd ere on the side of "actually he might be a bad option". The Cubs probably don't need a second 1b option who is going to platoon against LHP. We will see what happens but I think a lot of why people feel Mervis is a good option is because of how quickly he jumped up. Deeper dives into his process and how the Cubs have treated him suggest there's some issue there. I have had to reevaluate how I feel about him and have come more and more to the conclusion that there's heavy reason to be skeptical of his ability to be an MLB regular.

The Cubs have made it blatantly obvious they don't love Matt Mervis. They didn't include him on the OD roster last year, they gave him a quick shout in the MLB and then buried him back in the MiLB behind players they would later DFA, such as Jared Young, when space opened up. The Cubs already have questionable defensive corners in Patrick Wisdom, and how likely/unlikely the Cubs are to play questionable defensive players like Morel and Busch outside of 1b/DH is yet to be seen at the MLB level. The less playing time those two are going to get away from those position the less chance the Cubs carry around a (likely) 1b/DH (mostly DH) only platoon bat. Especially one they don't appear to like that much. There's a very narrow path than likely requires one, perhaps two, injuries to occur to see Matt Mervis make the Cubs opening day roster. I truly don't think MLB teams make many decisions based on ST, and with Mervis, they've either already decided or haven't on his future roll with the Cubs before hand. I'd say the chances are much higher he's traded in the next few days to open up a 40-man slot for Bellinger than it is for him to make the Cubs OD.

Solid contract. Will essentially be a one year deal barring injury or tanking. Good job on waiting that one out. Bad news is that we get to have this same offseason next one. With Hendricks, Bellinger, Smyly, Gomes, Bote, and some dead money coming off, the Cubs will once again have a lot of money under the LT, tons of prospects and will be labeled as the team to watch.