Jason Ross

I think the word "guarantee" is likely doing some work here, as I think the "guarantee" is that Imanaga gets 2/$30m here. With the structure (that we haven't fully seen) I bet that the Cubs total may be more, or that with opt-outs it gives Imanaga more power. These things happen all the time. But it does seem like Imanaga liked Chicago and chose the power/earning potential over the promise, however.

Thanks! I'm already both overwhelmed (in a good way) and incredibly excited about TruMedia. This stuff rocks.

Sounds like a creative way for both parties to come out as winners and mitigate being losers. The Cubs likely have a few ways that they can make sure this is closer to a two year deal if Imanaga's shoulder explodes in the next two years where as Imanaga can opt out at some stage if he shows those concerns are not founded.

Well, yes. Again I said "since" Prior. Prior was after Wood, just to explain my post. You're right, Wood was a bigger prospect than Horton at the time, more than likely, that Horton comes up.

Yeah, Prior was, at least IMO, the start of the hyped prospect. I was 15/16 and I was following him through the MiLB...and I wasn't the MiLB shill I am today. David Price kicked it all into a new level.

So if we assume the Cubshave $60-$70m to spend, Imanaga coming in around $15m AAV leaves the Cubs with maybe $55m left to go. That's enough to get a hitter (Bellinger), another player (Hoskins?) and two pretty good RP's in.

I didn't mention mention him with Horton because of the "since" Prior thing (as you noted). But Prior still gets precedence over Wood. The draft pedigree and the hype surrounding Prior was...insane. I think the internet really helped there, at least on hype. Even the 5 years between the two on debuts...internet really took off. Wood took three years to come up. Prior took about one year in the Minors and was already the #2 prospect. Wood topped out as a top-3.

horsefeathers steal.

Yeah, Prior remains the best Cub pitching prospect, probably ever, upon callup. At least in terms of hype/pedigree/industry rating. That almost assuredly won't change when Horton comes up. But Horton is the best *since* Prior.

I wouldn't go that far yet. But I think it's a fun rotation start (even more when Horton comes up) if they can work with Imanaga's fastball location. I think a solid 3 fWAR season is on the table here.

Similarly, both guys have really funky fastballs. The ride he showed at the WBC, would be the most ride of any fastball in baseball.

Yeah, the team really could use some velocity in the rotation. That said, he does add swing and miss, so at least it adds something a bit different.

Cubs like less years, more AAV. So I'll guess like 5/$105 but more front loaded in the first three and an opt-out after the third.

Shota!

Cerami does have sources, yes. He's broken a few trades. I can't remember all of them, but definitely broke the Kimbrel/Madrigal deal. I'm not sure I take his mentions of him at 3b as reporting, however. And while I think BN has some good stuff, I think they get a little too "cheerleader-y" at times. Being a member of BN, Cerami has some of that in him.

Yeah I think this is pretty close to done, too. Pretty much has to with the needing of the red tape to get done in the next day or so. I think it'll be Cubs or mystery team, personally. Which feels like a cop out, but I think one of those other "finalists" who are unnamed are the teams who would go to the highest level.

I actually feel good where this is going. It feels like the Cubs can get Imanaga if they so choose with the reporting. If they don't, I think it's because they like their tradable options more. If they do; great, I like Imanaga himself. So this one feels like it might be fine either way.

I took it as the Angels were not one of the 5 suitors considered they were looking "elsewhere" but that's just my interpretation of a fairly vague post. So I think we both could be right here.

5 Suitors leaves two "mystery" teams. I bet one is NY.

Yep. Skenes with 59%, Painter with 12% and Horton with 7%. Above Jobe and Harrison at 5% each.

MLB Execs voted PCA as best defensive player. Cade Horton as third best pitching prospect.

Mark Feinsand has a source that says it's "all pointing to the Giants" for Imanaga. Should be noted the word "might" is used when discussing them as a favorite. Source to MLB.com article

There's no bones about it: Matt Mervis struggled with the Chicago Cubs in his first chance with the parent organization. His time was punctuated by swings and misses and pitch-recognition issues. Sent down to the MiLB it was said he was working on a tweak to his swing. Did it actually occur? And what can we expect from him moving forward? Once an undrafted free agent pitcher out of Duke, Matt Mervis soared in 2022. Ending on a high note in Iowa, many expected the first baseman to break camp with the Cubs in the winter due to his addition to the 40-man and his overwhelmingly excellent results over three levels of minor league baseball. While Mervis had to wait a little bit longer than expected due to the arrivals of Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini, the lefty got his callup on May 5th. By June 15th, the Cubs had decided to send the struggling Mervis down to Triple-A, later citing that they were working on his swing. Upon returning to Iowa, Mervis continued to rake, but did anything actually improve? First, it's important to look at Matt Mervis before the May 5th callup. On the surface, Matt Mervis absolutely crushed the baseball at AAA. Posting an impressive 136 wRC+, the former Blue Devil hit six home runs, seven doubles, and 26 base hits. More impressively, he walked 18 times compared to 19 strikeouts. Based on his raw numbers, Mervis was clearly ready for the MLB. With that said, digging into his hit chart and heat map, there were perhaps a few flaws in his game. Below, you'll see his heat map displaying his hot-and-cold zones for batting average and his spray chart for 2023. Take note that Mervis seemingly feasted heavily on pitches down the middle, but did not cover the plate consistently, getting much colder on pitches on the edges. Also, a very pull-heavy spray chart was the result, with Mervis hitting every one of his six AAA home runs to right field, and only a handful of batted balls ending up going the other way. This type of a spray chart and heat map continued during his time in Chicago. Below are his charts from May 5th - June 14th. Keep note, again, of the majority of his batting average coming from balls that are dead-center, with the small addition of a high-outside blip. There are a lot of similarities between two, suggesting that even though each heat-map covers roughly a single month of data, that Mervis' was a similar hitter at both levels in terms of plate coverage: Where things begin to get interesting with Mervis is when we look at his data from June 6th through the end of the season in AAA. There was clearly a change in Mervis' heat map, and while there's just more data and a larger sample size, there is clearly more power being displayed throughout the middle of the field. Mervis started to hit home runs more consistently to the middle of field and not everything is as strong to the pull-side. He also showed better control of the plate, particularly, on pitches on middle-out and middle-in. There's also significantly less blue or problem areas. This would go to show that there was likely a tweak in approach and swing for Mervis over his time in Iowa: So what does this all mean for Matt Mervis? It looks as if there is both good and bad. The good news is that looking only at his wRC+, it would seem as though the changes were not something that hurt Mervis overall. Prior to his demotion, as previously noted, his wRC+ was 136. After the demotion, the powerful first basemen posted a wRC+ of 131. Giving him better plate coverage and an approach that uses a bit more of the field, on paper, would be a good thing as well. Despite the similar wRC+ output, there were a handful of red flags that were being hidden just below the surface, though. Despite the heat map making it seem as if he was hitting the ball more, the opposite was true, as Mervis saw his strikeout rate jump nearly 5%. The root of the strikeouts seem to suggest that with the tweak, came a new approach as well; a far more swing happy one. From June through September, Mervis saw his swing% jump over five percent. More worryingly was that the increase in swings was coupled with a decrease in contact. Over this span his contact rate fell from roughly 75% in the first month of the season to around 66%. A 66% contact rate in Triple-A is quite the red flag as only 11 qualified hitters (out of 80) at the Triple-A level posted worse full-season contact rates. At the MLB level, that would place Mervis squarely in the bottom 10 hitters, as well, and we know that MLB pitching is much better than their Triple-A counterparts. It would be one thing if the contact rate improved as Mervis showed more competency with the changes, sadly, Mervis' lowest contact rates of the entire season happened in September. Overall, it becomes quite clear why the Cubs decided to leave Mervis in Iowa. Where the Cubs and Matt Mervis go from here is murky. A deeper dive into the contact rates and the swing% suggests that there clearly was a change, but the overall end result does not appear to be a net-gain. Instead, the first baseman is beginning to show signs of being that dreaded "Quadruple-A" type of a hitter, capable of hitting the lights out of Triple-A while failing to succeed at the highest levels. None of this is to suggest him to be a dead prospect, but that despite the wRC+, some of the processes by which Mervis is going by is worrisome. Hopefully a winter in the cages and with hitting instructors can turn what appears to be better plate coverage with improved contact rates to get the best of both worlds. 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No numbers and what is "significant" is subjective. But probably important to note.