Jason Ross

As others have pointed out, if the Cubs weren't planning on going over the LT this year, they'd likely have gone over at the deadline. Instead, they basically refused to add any real RP and stayed juuuuust under. The Cubs, themselves, have said they're "in the 4th or 5th inning" of their offseason. They still need at least one hitter and an 8th/9th reliever. And if they really aren't going over the LT, they'd have less than $30m, needing to save some overage for the deadline. That'd be a very difficult task to bring in another 3 MLB players for $30m.

Yeah, seen Lance's stuff. Lance is the horsefeathers. With that said, Boras just doesn't lose often, if, basically, ever. What you need is one team that gets a little ahead of themselves. Boras always finds his Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies or Anaheim Angels. Bellinger's either going to get way over that on a short term deal, or be no where short of $25m on a long.

Well, I think we need to remember, no one really plays 162 games any more. Bellinger, even if entirely healthy, is probably looking at 140 games. Then add in the batted ball data: Bellinger looks more like a 110-120 wRC+ hitter moving forward (Mike Petriello laid out a great case). I think Cody Bellinger at 3-3.5 fWAR is a really likely scenario moving forward. He will probably peak and valley outside of that: maybe a bit above 3.5 here, lower there...etc, but I wouldn't expect him to be much better unless the batted ball profile changes (and I don't think you can really predict that getting better right now).

The Cubs are almost assuredly going over the first line of the luxury tax. They probably have closer to $50-$55m left to spend. Based on their "shopping list" it will be not a couple relievers, but one (Hottovoy suggested one 1 SP, two RP's. Almonte and Imanaga are in). Also claim to be in the "4th/5th inning" of the offseason. 3 in already, mid way through, expect 3 more in. So I'd say it's more likely: 1. Big hitter/FA 2. A smaller hitter 3. One 8th/9th RP to go.

I guess. But I also highly believe if a team is giving him seven years, Boras likely hasn't lost this contract, and 7/$168m for Bellinger feels very much like a loss when Byrant pulled down $180+m. I really can't see a scenario where Bryant locks in at only $23m or $24m for seven years. We'll certainly see, but it feels you're very much on the hopeful side of his contract. Boras just loses so rarely. I'll side with him coming away with a win in some fashion...either AAV or total. A 7/$168m feels like a loss in both.

I would eat my shoe if Scott Boras allowed that. At 6 years that's under $140m. $20m+ under Brandon Nimmo's total. Boras is the best in the business for a reason. He'll get someone to give him $160-$180m. Or get that really high AAV stuff. It might not be Chicago, but it'll be someone. I don't think he's getting this $200m+ deal he was banging his chest about, but he won't lose that much. I'll put it this way as well: I appreciate Swasnon really wants Bellinger back, but he's probably not helping as much as he thinks he is.

I think there's almost a zero% chance he gets $23m AAV. He's going to get at least $25m AAV (and thats still probably on the low end) and possibly much, much higher if he gets a short term, high AAV with opt-out thing. The only way he gets $23m AAV is if he signs like an 8 or 9 year contract. His market is cloudy, but it's Scott Boras. Boras is likely looking at the Bryant deal as a baseline for a 6/7 year contract. Usually what Boras wants, he gets. Even with murky markets.

I don't think the Cubs traded Jackson Ferris and Zhir Hope because they're overly worried about the backup plans for Michael Busch. You make that kind of trade because you're confident. Doesn't mean the Cubs can't have another 1b, but I don't think they're worried about the backup, either. They still have Mervis (to date), and they've had Morel work at 1b. Maybe you still sign Hoskins, but I'd do so because you think he's the best bet, and the added 1b ability is just gravy. Nome of that is saying Busch doesn't have some risk, but that the Cubs are likely pretty confident on Busch.

Whether asked by the Cubs or personal choice...Shaw knows. That's the path to the MLB.

Yeah, I get some of the frustrations. With that said, I think the Cubs are off to a good start. They did a really nice and creative deal with Imanaga and I actually really like the Busch trade. The Cubs lack the elite player yet, and it doesn't seem as though they'll have one next year at the start of the season. But it feels like the Cubs are still looking to get stuff done. Figure the Cubs have brought in three players already, and claim to basically be in the 4th/5th inning of their offseason. Maybe three more MLB caliber players. Could be two of three very good players.

Hoyer in another comment said that the Cubs were not precluded in adding another 1b just because they had acquired Busch. And based on the shopping list Hottovy laid out, it was "1 SP". I don't see much to complain about on his comments above. The small-market answer is a bit perturbing as is his belief that their goal is "good deals" not just "getting deals done" (sometimes you *have* to get the deal done and it's not peerect). With that said, they could be meant to be "we like to value players at certain levels and we won't sign a player just because" but with the understanding truly elite players require elite contracts, too.

I think the Cubs will be making some trades. There's a handful of guys the Cubs have that can likely go in some trades. Matt Mervis, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Asad, are a few guys I still think have someupside, but are either blocked or superfluous currently. There's probably teams out there that would like those guys. Could see some smaller deal in the vein of Busch/Ferris where the Cubs move young players for younger prospects (not 40 man).

Appreciate it! Yeah, I think there's a good chance that Merryiweather is really going to be the "go to" 7th inning-RHP guy most days when they're ahead. I think someone like Palencia will join him (eventually) in that role, too. Guys like Leiter/Almonte/Cuas probably more in that 6th inning or "losing in the 7th" role. Figure the Cubs will prioritize an 8th/9th inning pitcher (Stephenson?) to go with Alzolay as an addition.

On January 17th, 2023, the Chicago Cubs claimed Julian Merryweather on waivers after he was designated for assignment by the Toronto Blue Jays. Despite showing upper 90's velocity, the then-31-year-old-reliever had been, at best, tepid, posting a 5.63 ERA to go along with 4.13 xFIP and being worth just .3 fWAR over his first 52 IP in the majors. By the end of the 2024 season, the Cubs had reinvented the reliever into one of their most reliable arms. But...how? Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports The move to claim Julian Merryweather nearly 365 days ago would have gone under the radar for even the most ardent Cubs fans. There was little to be excited about a reliever who had shown such little success to date, and the Cubs have a habit of claiming and then designating for assignment these types of players throughout the Hoyer era, so there was a good chance he'd never make an appearance for the Cubs. Instead, Merryweather would finish the season with an ERA in the mid-3s, an xFIP of 3.61, and accumulate nearly a win of value per FanGraphs, becoming a useful leverage reliever and one of the staples in the Cubs pen. Digging into the data on Merryweather, the surface numbers look much improved, the most glaring of which was his K%. Sitting at a mediocre 24.3% in 2022, the Cubs squeezed a 10% jump in strikeout percentage out of the righty, as Merryweather saw his K% rise to over 32%. The reason behind the jump in strikeout rate is likely behind the 10% whiff% increase Merryweather saw from 2022 to 2023, specifically against left-handed hitters. A pitcher who always boasted an average fastball velocity of over 97mph, Merryweather was finally turning his stuff into results. But the strikeouts didn't come from thin air, and a deeper dive into Merryweather can help pinpoint where the changes occurred. Before coming to the Cubs, Julian sported a four-pitch mix: a four-seam fastball, a slider, a sweeper, and a changeup. Leaning heavily on the fastball, Merryweather threw this pitch to righties over 50% of the time. In 2023, the Cubs made a pitch mix change as Merryweather now threw the four-seam just 30% of the time against righties, leaning heavily on the slider (60%+). Against left-handers, he increased the usage of his slider, which sounds counterintuitive in theory as sliders traditionally work best against same-handed hitters. While Merryweather remained somewhat susceptible to left-handed hitters (left-handers have a wOBA of .305 against him compared to a .280 against righties), his slider shows far more vertical break than horizontal, making it useful against either side. Cutting out his sweeper against left-handers entirely also helped. More importantly, the consistency and shape of his pitches improved. Below are charts that show the horizontal and vertical movement of his pitches from 2023 (left) and 2022 (right). Notice how more consistent the changeup (depicted in purple) is. Even though he decreased the pitch usage, the pitch is far more concentrated in the same area. He also added a sweeper (salmon/pink) instead of a curveball, which began to distinguish itself and separate itself from the slider (green). Again, it's a pitch he doesn't use often, but it gave him a new addition to his arsenal... something with true horizontal instead of vertical movement. The overall result can be seen in the amount of swings and misses that Julian Merryweather got between 2022 and 2023. Looking again at the charts provided by TruMedia, Merryweather did much better in 2023 (left) compared to 2022 (right). He continued to get chases below the zone as he had done previously but also began to get more swings and misses in the zone. It should be noted that Merryweather did walk more hitters in this approach, but gaining more swings and misses in the zone will be good for a pitcher who will walk a few more. Overall, it becomes clear that Julian Merryweather's time in Chicago last year resulted in an improved pitcher. Gains in consistency, shape, and pitch mix transformed a pitcher who always had good stuff into a pitcher who finally began showing impressive results. I don't think Julian Merryweather is a guy you want closing, but he's also a great asset in the 7th and 8th innings and a pitcher capable of getting those essential swings and misses when needed. The Cubs shouldn't refuse to add bullpen help (with players like Robert Stephenson, Phil Maton, David Robertson, etc, still available). Still, they can also feel comfortable moving forward with Merryweather as a staple in the bullpen for 2024. Where do you think Julian Merryweather fits into the Cubs' 2024 bullpen plans? Are there other pitchers you think can make the kinds of jumps he did? Let us know in the comment section! View full article

NSBB (and the larger DiamondCentric group) currently hooked us up with a trial subscription to TruMedia to help us write articles. Basically it's like Savant and FG had a baby. And that baby was on steroids. Between this, my article on Mervis and an upcoming one on a reliever...you'll tell I'm kind of having fun with it. Here's a fun fact: the Cubs were among the absolute *best* in baseball in wOBA against sliders and sweepers! We were squarely in the top-10 in wOBA (7th with a wOBA of .309) against them. If you're surprised...don't worry, me too. I expected bad numbers against them. Curveballs less so (23rd). But also among the ten worst against fastballs (22nd), which again...surprising. Now the good news is that Busch was still pounding hanging sliders (an OPS north of 1.000). It was the contact rate that drops below 70% on both pitches. So he's not hapless but we should expect more whiffs there. The power is strong so I also expect he will smash the mistakes regardless of pitch type. Overall? The Cubs really *could* use a guy who cranks on fastballs like Busch was in 2023.

"Sometimes that comes in the form of a right hander as well". Interesting addition. Entirely unneeded, really. Yet... So who's a RH who hits RH really well?

Catching quotes from Hoyers "meet the press" on Twitter. Much less cool; I'm on my couch in Kentucky haha

Jed Hoyer: We're in the 4th or 5th inning of our offseason.

Jed Hoyer: "He's gonna play" when asked about Busch. Thinks 1b is his best position but that Counsell would make the choice. Busch trade won't stop Cubs from getting a 1b. Focusing on bats. Specifically mentioned ones who hit RHP.

Oh, my bad, Squally! Yeah I kind of agree on Morel.

Shota seems like he's another guy with a good personality and fairly goofy. I knew a lot about Seiya's personality before coming over but didn't know a lot about Imanaga's. Good to see he will likely fit in. Likely helps with the transition in some way.

Probably. Though I do think it's important to mention that we really don't know what kind of a defender he is. Defensive scouting reports are notoriously off: Albert Almora was supposed to be a plus defender in CF, while Javier Baez was suggested to have to move off of short. With no OAA/DRS for Triple-A and only a 90 inning sample in the majors, we just don't have data, only the scouting report. As well, there are some reports that he's worked hard at second and made himself decent at second base: - per MLB Pipeline His biggest knock is his arm. The Cubs get credit for taking a similarly "noodly" arm player in Nick Madrigal and making him a viable defensive third baseman. That doesn't mean they have the magic touch to do it for everyone, but it wouldn't be shocking to see a passable second baseman become a passable third baseman with a team who's shown the ability to squeeze juice out of that fruit before. Ultimately, I expect him to be a first baseman with the Cubs. I don't want to suggest he's likely to end up elsewhere, only that, I'd stop short of saying "never".

I'll assume nothing major. Maybe like a "we think Cade Horton is capable of starting in Iowa" or a "Pete Crow-Armstrong will be given a chance to make the MLB roster" thing, but I have a feeling the Cubs have enough shopping left to do that a lot of the fluidity will remain.

Well... 1. Marcus Stroman is shorter than Greg Maddux. He was a first round draft pick. He's gotten multiple large contracts as a free agent. That was nearly ten years ago. Height is quickly becoming a non-factor for SP's and Stroman is just the first guy off the top of my head. There are are plenty of short-king SP's now a days. 2. The Cubs just signed Shota Imanaga to a $53m (upwards of $80m) contract and he has "average" fastball velocity (~92mph). He's also only listed at 5"10 himself! I don't think anyone thinks he's a not-even-a-Double-A pitcher. Velocity is certainly important, but there are plenty of examples (Hendricks, Steele, if you want two other recent Cub examples) of teams overlooking that. I don't believe at any time that people would have looked at Greg Maddux as a barely-Double-A starter. And I want to be very clear: I'm not calling Stroman or Imanaga Maddux. In fact, that's really important here. You don't have to be a generational talent to get by with less than traditionally-thought-of-as-being-ideal height or velocity. Even today in the era of data. 3. I would argue that contact% and swing% very different "statistics" than "height", as well. There are times when maybe we get a little too attached to specific statistics and become single-issue-voters, so I think there is always a "too much of a good thing" with data analysis, but I don't believe those data points that were brought up hit that level. Contact% is one of the highest correlating numbers from AAA to MLB. It's very important. If we're trying to project a player at the next level, it's an important part of the recipe. 4. I agree that Kyle Schwarber's release was poor. Though I do highly believe that had more to do with money than anything else. None of this goes back to the idea that my analysis of Matt Mervis was headed down a wrong path or belongs in financial analysis, however.