Jason Ross

Shota!

Cerami does have sources, yes. He's broken a few trades. I can't remember all of them, but definitely broke the Kimbrel/Madrigal deal. I'm not sure I take his mentions of him at 3b as reporting, however. And while I think BN has some good stuff, I think they get a little too "cheerleader-y" at times. Being a member of BN, Cerami has some of that in him.

Yeah I think this is pretty close to done, too. Pretty much has to with the needing of the red tape to get done in the next day or so. I think it'll be Cubs or mystery team, personally. Which feels like a cop out, but I think one of those other "finalists" who are unnamed are the teams who would go to the highest level.

I actually feel good where this is going. It feels like the Cubs can get Imanaga if they so choose with the reporting. If they don't, I think it's because they like their tradable options more. If they do; great, I like Imanaga himself. So this one feels like it might be fine either way.

I took it as the Angels were not one of the 5 suitors considered they were looking "elsewhere" but that's just my interpretation of a fairly vague post. So I think we both could be right here.

5 Suitors leaves two "mystery" teams. I bet one is NY.

Yep. Skenes with 59%, Painter with 12% and Horton with 7%. Above Jobe and Harrison at 5% each.

MLB Execs voted PCA as best defensive player. Cade Horton as third best pitching prospect.

Mark Feinsand has a source that says it's "all pointing to the Giants" for Imanaga. Should be noted the word "might" is used when discussing them as a favorite. Source to MLB.com article

There's no bones about it: Matt Mervis struggled with the Chicago Cubs in his first chance with the parent organization. His time was punctuated by swings and misses and pitch-recognition issues. Sent down to the MiLB it was said he was working on a tweak to his swing. Did it actually occur? And what can we expect from him moving forward? Once an undrafted free agent pitcher out of Duke, Matt Mervis soared in 2022. Ending on a high note in Iowa, many expected the first baseman to break camp with the Cubs in the winter due to his addition to the 40-man and his overwhelmingly excellent results over three levels of minor league baseball. While Mervis had to wait a little bit longer than expected due to the arrivals of Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini, the lefty got his callup on May 5th. By June 15th, the Cubs had decided to send the struggling Mervis down to Triple-A, later citing that they were working on his swing. Upon returning to Iowa, Mervis continued to rake, but did anything actually improve? First, it's important to look at Matt Mervis before the May 5th callup. On the surface, Matt Mervis absolutely crushed the baseball at AAA. Posting an impressive 136 wRC+, the former Blue Devil hit six home runs, seven doubles, and 26 base hits. More impressively, he walked 18 times compared to 19 strikeouts. Based on his raw numbers, Mervis was clearly ready for the MLB. With that said, digging into his hit chart and heat map, there were perhaps a few flaws in his game. Below, you'll see his heat map displaying his hot-and-cold zones for batting average and his spray chart for 2023. Take note that Mervis seemingly feasted heavily on pitches down the middle, but did not cover the plate consistently, getting much colder on pitches on the edges. Also, a very pull-heavy spray chart was the result, with Mervis hitting every one of his six AAA home runs to right field, and only a handful of batted balls ending up going the other way. This type of a spray chart and heat map continued during his time in Chicago. Below are his charts from May 5th - June 14th. Keep note, again, of the majority of his batting average coming from balls that are dead-center, with the small addition of a high-outside blip. There are a lot of similarities between two, suggesting that even though each heat-map covers roughly a single month of data, that Mervis' was a similar hitter at both levels in terms of plate coverage: Where things begin to get interesting with Mervis is when we look at his data from June 6th through the end of the season in AAA. There was clearly a change in Mervis' heat map, and while there's just more data and a larger sample size, there is clearly more power being displayed throughout the middle of the field. Mervis started to hit home runs more consistently to the middle of field and not everything is as strong to the pull-side. He also showed better control of the plate, particularly, on pitches on middle-out and middle-in. There's also significantly less blue or problem areas. This would go to show that there was likely a tweak in approach and swing for Mervis over his time in Iowa: So what does this all mean for Matt Mervis? It looks as if there is both good and bad. The good news is that looking only at his wRC+, it would seem as though the changes were not something that hurt Mervis overall. Prior to his demotion, as previously noted, his wRC+ was 136. After the demotion, the powerful first basemen posted a wRC+ of 131. Giving him better plate coverage and an approach that uses a bit more of the field, on paper, would be a good thing as well. Despite the similar wRC+ output, there were a handful of red flags that were being hidden just below the surface, though. Despite the heat map making it seem as if he was hitting the ball more, the opposite was true, as Mervis saw his strikeout rate jump nearly 5%. The root of the strikeouts seem to suggest that with the tweak, came a new approach as well; a far more swing happy one. From June through September, Mervis saw his swing% jump over five percent. More worryingly was that the increase in swings was coupled with a decrease in contact. Over this span his contact rate fell from roughly 75% in the first month of the season to around 66%. A 66% contact rate in Triple-A is quite the red flag as only 11 qualified hitters (out of 80) at the Triple-A level posted worse full-season contact rates. At the MLB level, that would place Mervis squarely in the bottom 10 hitters, as well, and we know that MLB pitching is much better than their Triple-A counterparts. It would be one thing if the contact rate improved as Mervis showed more competency with the changes, sadly, Mervis' lowest contact rates of the entire season happened in September. Overall, it becomes quite clear why the Cubs decided to leave Mervis in Iowa. Where the Cubs and Matt Mervis go from here is murky. A deeper dive into the contact rates and the swing% suggests that there clearly was a change, but the overall end result does not appear to be a net-gain. Instead, the first baseman is beginning to show signs of being that dreaded "Quadruple-A" type of a hitter, capable of hitting the lights out of Triple-A while failing to succeed at the highest levels. None of this is to suggest him to be a dead prospect, but that despite the wRC+, some of the processes by which Mervis is going by is worrisome. Hopefully a winter in the cages and with hitting instructors can turn what appears to be better plate coverage with improved contact rates to get the best of both worlds. View full article

No numbers and what is "significant" is subjective. But probably important to note.

I have a feeling the "he's going to get $100m+" is accurate. There's too much smoke there for me to think it's nothing and we've seen most of the top end of the market beat pre-season projections. I could see his AAV down around pre-season projections (which had him at about $15m AAV over five) if teams add years (6/$105m gets you to $17.5m, for example, which both qualifies him for near the same AAV and $100+m, a tactic teams are doing more and more). My best guess based on the Cubs behavior is I wonder if they're going with a shorter contract higher AAV or maybe something more "front loaded" with opt-outs versus other teams who are likely offering those extended years to top the total dollar amount. But that's just me guessing based on what the Cubs have done recently.

One thing I've been thinking is how quiet the Imanaga recruitment has been. It feels a bit like the Suzuki posting, if we're being honest. Now, I think the Covid offseason and CBA negotiations hid some of that, but at the same time, it's been pretty hushed. I wonder if that signals the Cubs are doing a bit better here than maybe we thought based on the Mooney reports (from league sources).

And why they brought in Breslow to begin with, I think. Not only with the Boston connect, but that he learned under Hoyer and Co who basically was asked to do similar things in Chicago.

Sharma just posted an article on The Athletic this morning. There's nothing really "quote worthy" IMO, but a quick summary is simply that Hoyer is operating the way most of us understand and have thought: it's a patient process. They've contacted every team to discuss trade scenarios, have discussed multiple free agents. They didn't see 2024 as an "all-in" season. They did not believe they'd get Ohtani, and did engage on Soto originally but dropped out when they saw the Yankees offering what they were. They did drop out on Yamamoto relatively early because they didn't like the price. They do understand they need to be irrational about a player, but when they see multiple other teams willing to be irrational, are not willing to bid those teams up. We'll see if it pays off.

I think the Cubs are looking at Snell/Montgomery/Imanaga or a trade, yes. I do not think the Cubs are likely to simply add a James Paxton and wipe their hands clean. There's been enough smoke out there, pretty consistently, that the Cubs are going to make at least one, maybe two trades this offseason. With the position player market, especially Bellinger, looking like the smoke is blowing in the Cubs direction eventually the most likely trade scenario feels SP. Even if they're forced to go down the fallback area, they'll grab one later. I don't think the lack of options is an issue here. One or two players will be left out in the cold moreso than others, and if the Cubs are going fall back, then it'll be based on value proposition. Losing a few from that group won't matter.

I don't think there has to be a positive or a negative spin. If the Cubs are looking at, as Hottovoy suggested, one starter and two relievers, then Manaea probably wasn't an option for the Cubs. They need someone they can count on to be legitimately good and while I think Manaea has upside, he got dropped from the Giants rotation for cause before he made his changes. The amount of risk he presents as the missing link in our rotation feels too much. Making $14m he's being paid like a starter, and wasn't going to accept a simple swingman job, meaning he couldn't fill one of the reliever spots here.

I'm not sure the Mets were in on any of the big pitchers left, so not sure that math changes. Once Yamamoto went off the board, the Mets weren't thought of as a favorite for Snell, Montgomery or Imanaga.

Manaea to Mets. 2/$28m. Plus opt out.

Frankly, I increasingly want an interpreter. - someone who teaches preteens 8 hours a day.

Damnit. I figured "Greg is reposting it, gotta be safe!".

Conflicting reports. One Japanese reports Cubs have "withdrawn" (reposted by BN). Zumach reposted this tweet below claiming the opposite. I'm surprised to see the Dodgers named here, and a disclaimer on both...I don't know anything about who to believe on the Japanese side of reporting. No one I follow (I follow the vast majority of good reporting baseball media) follows the guy below.

Braiser is an interesting cat. Dude kind of went under the radar younger, but then fell off. Dodgers taught him a cutter last year at age 36 and apparently it's just an absolutely disgusting pitch. He reminds me a bit of a David Robertson type of a sign; older guy but as a 7th/8th inning option with experience would be pretty interesting on a one year deal.

I think "significant" is the wrong word. He was middle of the pack on many defensive metrics. He wasn't a *bad* defender by most means. He does need to improve a bit, but last year was also his first year back catching since mid-2021, and he was a rookie learning a new staff. I think part of it was rust. I think part of it was being young, too. Hopefully a full offseason working with the Cubs and Counsell's presence (hopefully bringing and imparting some of the things he picked up with Milwaukee) should also move the needle.

Giants and Mariners just made a trade. Robbie Ray goes to the Giants for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafini. That likely opens them back up for Bellinger.