Jason Ross

Good news: the Cardinals fairy dust seems to be on a bit of short supply recently.

Agreed. I think he'll come a long a bit slower than Horton this year. With that said, if you told me Wiggins had a similar (although relative to his draft position) rise from a guy fans don't even include in their org-top-20's to being a top-50 guy league wide...I'd entirely buy it. Stuff jumps that much.

Wiggins is the most underrated prospect in our system, IMO. I think people see the TJS and the college numbers and write him off as just a lottery ticket, but there was some real helium on his progress in the fall, and we never got to see it in the spring. In a draft that was pretty devoid of high-end-college arms outside of the top-20 or so picks, the Cubs got someone who had first round hype later in the draft. Add in that this was a Ty Nichols recommendation (he recommended Wicks and Horton!) and I'm all in on Wiggins.

Savant. You can find these percentile rankings on every player page. Just scroll to the bottom! Cool stuff.

I'd have said pre-trade I liked Pasquitino more. and I still think I do. With that said, Busch impressed me more than I thought when I dug into the 2022-2023 changes. I'd say Pasq has better bat to ball, Equal power, equal approach, Busch the better defense. I think I'd take Pasq's bat upside, but Busch isn't a full standard deviation below. I kind of dig Busch.

I mean, it did in 2020-2022. Last year some approach changes help. But this goes, literally back to the start. You might not care how he managed to get to an OPS+ of 133, but teams do. How he got there is worrisome, not that he got there.

Okay so first...why? Adbert Alzolay was really good last year. He struck out over a hitter per inning and he doesn't walk anyone. He had the 13th best fWAR. It's just about being good. Alzolay is good. Secondly, you cannot believe for half a second Ben Brown is making the OD roster. You know better then that. He was hurt and terrible last season in AAA over the last 2 months. Now I think part of that was he was hurt, but he has major control issues. Also, the Cubs have a bunch of arms ahead of him. He's going to be in Iowa OD and he's going to start down there. Unless a rash of injuries hit the BP, yes, he's going to be down until July. You know that, thaw. He might not even be in the BP in Chicago! He very well may start games. He's been a consistent starter thus far and until the Cubs decide to move him to the pen, he'll remain a starter. They've made no such decision to my knowledge.

You can see his batted ball data. Here's the thing: this is the norm, Chops. It's been the norm since his injury. It got better but not significantly better. What data here suggests he can get back to 2019? It's 2024. We have had 1,699 PA's of results from 2020 to 2023. I think we can say that he's healthier now and that 2023 was better. He made some important approach changes, specifically with two strikes. But what in this information do you think suggests he's ever reaching 2019 levels again? This isn't one year of data, it's years of data. We can say that 2023 Cody Bellinger was better, but that doesn't mean we just simply ignore 2020-2022 because we feel like it. If you think this is me making the "batted ball data the end all be all" then you're not really being fair to my overall argument. I'm saying that the batted ball data highly suggests regression from 2023 to something more around 110-120 wRC+. That's a good player; and better than 2020-2022. I've also said there are some underlying things that he does better to help mitigate the batted ball data, too, but that it's just not enough. That's not the "end all be all" that's just the reality. 2019 Cody Bellinger probably isn't coming back unless his batted ball data gets much better very quickly and without warning. I also think 2023 Bellinger is a bit better than we can expect 2024 Bellinger to be. But that also doesn't mean he'll be bad...just....not as good as he was last year, probably.

It's pretty unlikely they'll replace Alzolay in the 8th and 9th innings this season. Alzolay had a wonderful year last season, tied for the 13th best according to fWAR in 2023. Unless he falls off a decent amount, there's little to no way two rookies will replace him there. Not saying I'm not rooting for Little and Brown who both look very interesting, just that...that's probably a good step too far. Brown probably won't be up until July, anyways. Not really enough time to become the closer in a playoff race as a rookie.

Well, now we're just putting words in my mouth, Chops. I've never once said that his batted ball data is the "end all be all". I've said I don't think he can keep being 35% better than average with well below average batted ball data. That isn't to say he also doesn't do somethings that mitigate that; his base running turns a few singles into doubles, and his two strike approach will likely allow him to BABIP a bit better than others. It's that it's incredibly hard to make that much weak contact and be as good as he was last year on a consistent, year to year basis. I'm not alone, either, as fangraphs, ZiPS, Mike Petriello...they all seem to agree. I'm not just making up these concerns or anything. It's okay to point out concerns in players profiles. This is no different than pointing out swing% issues, or launch angle issues, BABIP issues, HR/FB% issues...almost every player has some question marks. It's not disparaging to point them out and Bellinger doesn't need defended at every crossroads. Lastly, I won't be quoting any posts at the end of the season. I will gladly admit I'm wrong if he posts similar batted ball and keeps being a 136 wRC+ hitter, but I can't see any realistic scenario in which Cody Bellinger will post similarly bad batted ball data and then end up better than last year (he wasn't even playing at a 5.5 fWAR pace last year if he played 162 games). If he gets to 5.5 fWAR, it'll be, almost assuredly, that he improved his batted ball (or that his defense was just other worldly); something I've never claimed he couldn't do (though based on his trends, does feel a bit unlikely, however certainly not impossible). In which case, I'll still be correct today for pointing out that he can't keep the same batted ball profile and repeat a 136 wRC+. It's just really unlikely. In the end, if the Cubs sign Cody Bellinger I'll root for him to have a great season. He seems well liked by his teammates and a pretty decent dude from the outside. He seemed to like being here...that's good. The Cubs doing well is always more important than my silly little opinions. But I'll remain steadfast in that I very strongly believe that unless Cody Bellinger's batted ball gets better, he'll likely regress some.

The Cubs will sign SS, Fernando Cruz today, as IFA signings are now eligible to made public (shady non-sense, these things). He will be the only Cub IFA signing in the top-50 bonus' so expect it to be quite large. Cruz is considered on of the five best IFA prospects during this cycle. EDIT: Of course it drops literally moments after my post. $4m.

Before I dug into his fastball, I was a bit concerned. Averaging 92 mph felt like a bit "more of the same". But as I dug into the fastball shape and release point...I've become a huge fan. Essentially, he's going to throw his incredibly high-ride fastball from an arm slot no one else throws it from (closest starter to shape, and velocity might be Nester Cortes but his comes from a higher arm slot). It's a fastball that should play well on the upper third of the zone quite well. It's incredibly unique and one of the better fastballs in the world. We shouldn't really expect the WBC 94mph (pretty obvious he was able to empty the tank a bit more then) and the amount of ride will lessen (the NPB baseball is smaller than the MLB variant). With that said, I think his fastball, as long as Shota is willing to transition into a more western style of pitch-mix and location, will be one of the better fastballs on the team, regardless of pure velo.

So, you took all of that information and you boiled it down to...that? My very first sentence? That's a bit of a poor faith argument on your part I very clearly explained how David Bote's exit velocity had plenty of process issues, as well as providing data from Mike Petriello on Bellinger. Yes, hitters who strike out less can have lower rates, but it's not a hard and fast rule. Cody's average exit velocity sucked. So did his max exit velocity. So did his HR distance. This isn't someone who just made a lot of contact and so his exit velocity was bad, it was that he made weak contact consistently regardless. His max exit velocity was 221st and his max HR distance was 124th. Comparing Bellinger to Freeman also goes off the rails pretty quickly. Yes, Freeman's average exit velocity was 92nd, but his barrel% was 15th in baseball, the guy found the barrel constantly. He literally doubled Bellinger's barrel total. ZiPS has Bellinger at a 108 wRC+ next year versus 143 for Freeman. While I think former seasons and injury years are dragging Bellinger down a bit, ZiPS takes into account batted ball data, too. There's a reason why ZiPs thinks Freeman is 43% better than average and Bellinger is...well 8%. Is ZiPS end-all-be-all? No. But it's a much better projection system than "well I just feel" and that feels like what you're doing with Bellinger. You want so badly for him just to be great that you've allowed that to be all you can see. Teams should care. Clearly they do. If they didn't, Cody Bellinger, the 135 wRC+ player would have been signed. You sign a135 wRC+ CF'er to a $200m during the Winter Meetings if you truly believe he's 35% better than average. Not a single team has made him a priority for that amount to date. And before we get into the "Boras clients!" argument, Boras had a CF free agent already sign with a team (who could have used a 35% better than league average CF'er!)...Boras clients can be signed. I think Bellinger is a fine player. I also think he's likely a 3 or a 3.5 fWAR player moving forward unless he changes his batted ball profile. I'd be fine with the Cubs signing him to something like 6/$25m AAV or so. But we have to live in reality where his batted ball data matters when we talk about 2024 and beyond.

Swanson probably isn't helping, though. Not only is it riling up the fan base (imagine if the Cubs don't sign Bellinger at this point the horsefeathers storm that social medias, reddit, twitter will be...) it's not helping the Cubs negotiating hand. All it's giving is Boras more of a reason to hold steady. I appreciate Swanson would like Cody Bellinger back on the team, but I'd rather they let the team take care of this and not calling for it so publicly. If there's a positive, it's that I'm not sure Hoyer really gives a horsefeathers what people think and he'll hold firm on his valuation.

When did David Bote have "great" batted ball data? Because he had pretty decent batted ball data in 2018 in which he posted good exit velocity, but had a bunch of worrisome things under the hood, like really bad barrel%, bad whiff and chase rates...you get the picture. He was awful in 2019, then had good data (similar to 2018) in 2020. He had some interesting batted ball data with processes that suggested he'd unlikely be able to turn his exit velcoties into anything meaningful. Secondly, had he played 150 games, he'd have finished around 4.7 fWAR. You're right, that's not his career high, but his career high isn't coming back. 2019 Bellinger and 2023 Bellinger are different beasts. Bellinger just isn't the 47 home run guy any more and there's little indication that's coming back. In 2019, Bellinger was 39th in the league in exit velocity...he was 213th last year. In 2019 he was 10th in barrels, in 2023 he was 143rd. There's really little reason to bring up the guy he was because we're signing the guy he's going to be. There's always some "chaff" but he's almost assuredly going to be unable to replicated a 135 wRC+ with the type of hits he's getting. He's not a bad player mind you and there's been some interesting changes in his approach. But he's far more likely going to be 10-20% better than average than 35%+ better than average. He's just incredibly unlikely fWAR 4.7 if he's going to keep this batted ball profile. And no, it's not premature. There's basically no one in the MLB capable of producing 135 wRC+ with his batted ball data. You know who had his batted ball data last year? Guys like Alex Verdugo. Now that's not saying Bellinger=Verdugo, but it's important to realize what kind of batted ball data we have on Bellinger from last year. I'd really recommend reading this article from Mike Petriello. Not only is Mike one of the absolute best in the business, he explains just what kind of a hitter he expects Bellinger to be. One of the points he mentions is that you might not care how Bellinger got to an OPS+ 133...but teams do.

Clase's on a super cheap contact, which can extend to five years with club options. His value is sky-high right now. Morel probably isn't enough, requiring you to likely add more prospect capital. Emmanuel Clase is awesome, but his value is quite prohibitive.

Perhaps. But they did mention 1b, and I think we all know that if the Cubs bring in Bellinger, there will be a very good likelihood he'll have to move from CF to, probably, 1b when they do call up Pete Crow-Armstrong and that didn't seem to stop them mentioning Busch there specifically. I'd take it more at their word: that the Cubs really don't know what position Morel can play.

“He’s certainly going to play, that’s no question,” Hoyer said. “It’s up to Craig (Counsell) where. I think first base is obviously a natural spot for (Busch), he’s played there a lot. But certainly his versatility is also attractive.” versus “If you have a bat that will play in the major leagues, we will find a spot for you to play in the major leagues,” Hawkins said. “If (Morel) can step up in any of those (different positions), his bat is going to be something that just forces us to pencil him in the lineup. Worst case, he’s a DH a lot. Best case, he’s playing great defense for us. He certainly has the athleticism, the hands, the ability to do it. There’s an opportunity for him to be a great all-around player.” I don't think it's so much about "knowing" but Morel himself. At this point, Morel hasn't done anything defensively at a position the Cubs need to suggest he's capable of playing there. They've tried him at 3b in the minors plenty. They tried him in the OF. They have had him work at 1b...then traded for one. Where as Hoyer suggests Busch is a natural spot, the Cubs kind of hem and haw at Morel every time. Hopefully he figures something out because his bat is good enough to play.

Hoyer rarely minces words. I think it's very likely that Hoyer wasn't playing games with Boras and that the Cubs acquired him with the mind he's going to be a 1b with the Cubs most of the time. Notice how they approached Morel very differently from Busch when discussing the two. Busch was tagged a position and Morel was very shruggy "well he can hit we will find him a place". Think that says plenty. Busch is going to 1b, and Morel is a "well we are going to figure it out!". Think if there was a real shot at 3b or somewhere else for Busch they'd have had somewhat similar answers.

That's the thought, but I think you can probably say that scouts would have never envisioned Madrigal being a plus 3b, either. As well, the Cubs have shown that weak armed SS's can be plus defenders there; getting very good defensive seasons from Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson at SS despite "poor" arm strength grades. It's pretty clear that whatever the Cubs are doing defensively, they can makeup for poor arm strength on the left side. It'd be one thing if it was just one player, one year, but this dates back to 2022 now and over the course of a handful of players. If Matt Shaw is going to make it as a 3b, it would seem the Cubs are one of the best organizations to make it happen. Matt Shaw has reportedly taken "99% of his ground balls" this offseason at third. I have a feeling that's not just a choice by Shaw, but asked by the club. I think the Cubs think he can eventually get there at 3b.

Do you think Jed Hoyer would have said "We didn't want to go over the LT and that's why we didn't add a reliever?" He (and mostly Tom Ricketts) would have been killed in the media. Much easier to say "we didn't like the price". The Cubs just dealt, in part, Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope to Michael Busch and Yency Almonte, they're not immune to trades or their prices. Maybe they didn't like the prices. But I have a strong feeling it had more to do with the LT than anything then. And I don't think the Cubs can reasonably finish their shopping list without going over now.

Wonder if the end result was a decision to go with Almonte over Suter. At the price Suter signed for, feels like if the Cubs wanted him, they'd have made that one happen.

Well, I don't take anything personally, so no worries! I'm not someone who cannot separate discussion from personal attacks. I've got thick skin to begin with (benefit of being a middle school teacher!) and I know what we're really discussing is the processes of the article and the analysis, not me personally. So don't worry, I know you're coming from a non-antagonistic place. What I'm trying to do is challenge your assertion that data analysis belongs in financials and not in baseball. You've not really defended anything, except, deflecting with some random anecdotes on Greg Maddux but these don't even really hold up with how baseball teams act to begin with, so the anecdotes are at best poor defense of the stance you've taken (which I do disagree with at it's core). The reality is this: MLB teams use data. They also use the eye test, but at the end of the day, data rules. We can see this in who the best teams consistently hire, and how the best teams consistently draft, how they develop, and who they sign when given the chance in FA. If we're going to break down Matt Mervis, or any prospect, data rules the day. What correlates to MLB better than anything? Literally contact% (I'll link two studies here, one from Medium. the other from Fangraphs). Looking at the change in Mervis' contact rate is integral in determing his progress. Nothing is to suggest he's dead but to suggest that these declining numbers are problematic. This isn't financial data, or over analyzing, it's a real issue.