Jason Ross

Yeah I had noticed that piece of syntax too. My hope is that the league source is guessing on the Cubs behavior though think it's probably more likely that the Cubs just aren't the favorites here when you consider his final price tag should be over $100m and where we were pre-FA period. The Cubs haven't had a recent history of winning FA bidding wars so them jumping their internal "line in the sand" is unlikely (until they do it).

Yeah, they're not great. I think there's a lot of hope, however, that he's a candidate for an MLB style pitch mix fix. He throws his fastball more than I'd hope and rarely throws it up. His fastball is not his first or his second best offering. Based on shape and movement, his fastball likely, even at a lower velocity, would probably play better if he elevated it. I think a mix-fix that saw him throw the splitter more, and earlier in the count, while using the fastball as a put-away-pitch up (and used less often) would probably help curb the HR data.

Mooney reported Cubs were not seen as favorites, but Bowden has us as a finalist. Figured we should give him his own space.

Perhaps for you. I'm not very sure I'd agree. Tarik Skubal is really that good, IMO. And while I think Wicks is a nice arm, and while I think Pete Crow-Armstrong has significant upside, I know Skubal is a really good MLB pitcher (28th in fWAR last two seasons despite time missed, for example, 3rd in xFIP with arms over 190 IP). PCA and Wicks are unlikely to both hit their 90% outcomes. Skubal already has. That's not saying I'm gung-ho on anything, only that the bolded is subjective, not objective. I also think the last sentence you wrote is highly subjective. We can say that a few ways. "Cubs trade two unproven players for a controllable, 27 year old SP who has the third lowest xFIP over the last two seasons" and make it sound way differently. Both are true, but add in subjective things to make it highly biased. I'm going to avoid saying either, because both are true. Again, I really haven't thought about it, and I'm not super interested in getting too deep into what if's here, trade packages and tangents. What I know is this: Tarik Skubal is really, really horsefeathers good and any trade that would end up with him would hurt. But you'd also be getting a really good player back and that's what those cost. That was the original point of the post, that the Cubs and the Tigers could find common ground somewhere and why the Tigers would be interested at all, not the minutia of a PCA or Matt Shaw trade or whatever.

It's not just a casual toss of names. The Tigers do need some depth and MLB arms, and if we're talking "ready not" Jordan Wicks is. The Tigers, if they're moving Skubal, likely want MLB-now players. I know you're on team "trade Shaw", but Shaw isn't MLB ready now. Pete Crow-Armstrong is MLB ready, fits a decent need (the Tigers have openings in the OF, and have a huge ballpark, an 80 grade defender makes sense for them). And hell, that third big name could be Matt Shaw! Those weren't supposed to be a specific trade, but Tarik Skubal kicks ass when he's on the mound and it's going to hurt if we complete a trade there. PCA, Wicks + should hurt. I have no idea how badly the Cubs would want to do that, but if they traded for Skubal, they'd have plenty of money to sign Bellinger for CF, sign Sean Manaea to take the Wicks spot, etc...so it'd be something the Cubs could replace, too. I tried to use names that would conceivably make happen. It's okay if you wouldn't do that trade. I'm not sure what it'd take and it wasn't meant as an iron clad prediction or trade offer, either.

Again, I think those are the "intrusive thoughts" type of a thing. Why would he be available? Well, the Tigers have a handful of young SP's in their system. Jackson Jobe looks awesome, Wilmer Flores debuted last year at 22. It isn't as if they don't have players. This also isn't the first time his name has popped up: prior to his injury last year, his name was a guy that was popping up as "maybe available", then he got hurt. If you offered up a deal that included Pete Crow-Armstrong (who in Comerica Park with his defense?), Jordan Wicks and another big name in the system, I think you're starting to develop a trade. I won't go all in and say I can come up with specifics or anything, but the Tigers are probably listening on a pitcher who's about to hit arbitration and has thrown 200 innings in the last two years. The pitcher Skubal is, is seemingly great. But Detroit does have some pitchers in the system and might be enticed into cashing him in as he hits arbitration and with the arm injuries. I'm not saying he is fully available or that'll happen, only explaining why I think he's not off the table by any means. You can do the same things with Mitch Keller and Braxton Garrett. I just used him as one name Sherman mentioned as available.

Eh, I'm not sure I agree. While history suggests Toronto won't go over the LT, we can use these same consternations for most teams. However, Toronto is entering what may be the end of their current window with a few of their players inching closer to FA, others getting older...watching the Jays go over the first line of the LT for another year (only to pay a relatively small amount of LT) to maximize their run isn't going to be the craziest story of the offseason. If the Cubs sign, say, a SP to a deal of $25m AAV (in that Snell, Imanaga, Montgomery level...) then the same worries and history of not going over the LT can basically be applied here. While it would seem the Cubs are more likely to do it this year, history of avoidance (much like the Jays) suggests that to be less of a slam dunk. I wouldn't call Toronto a front runner for Cody Bellinger. I also don't think they're entirely out, either. At this point, trying to figure out who's actually the front runner on Bellinger seems pretty murky all things considered. There are a few teams he makes most sense for, others who have money to spend, etc...

If there's a positive, Joel Sherman was talking about guys like Braxton Garrett, Mitch Keller and Tarik Skubal being available. We've heard for a while the Cubs are interested in potential trades. With Bieber being off the market, there are young, controllable, and frankly, better than the FA offering arms out there. So while I think it's easy to be negative (and those intrusive thoughts are definitely in my head) where the Cubs decide they'd rather not pay Montgomery/Imanaga/Snell and instead just decide that Sean Manaea is the answer, there's alternatives in which the Cubs have maybe the best 1-2 lefty punch in the league with Steele and Skubal in 2024, too.

They also aren't out on Bellinger. Kiermaier is only on a one year, roughly $10m deal. That can easily be converted into a 4th OF'ers role. Rumor is there they're still interested in a DH/OF type and Bellinger fits into that role just fine. It could be they prefer a Joc Pederson type, but Bellinger isn't out in Toronto. I think they're less desperate for a Bellinger with Kiermaier, but he's not a major roadblock either.

Per Mooney in an article from the Athletic today: "A league source said Chicago is not seen as a likely landing spot for Shoto Imanaga" "Jordan Montgomery is viewed as a better potential fit than Blake Snell, per a team source, though it's unclear how far the Hoyer group is willing to go in that pursuit of pitching" Mentions that if the Cubs would rather go depth, they would be fits for Manaea and Paxton. Matt Moore is a player they have long liked.

Per Jon Heyman: "J.D. Martinez looks like a possible fit for the Angels and D-Backs. He’d also make sense for the Mets. It’d be nice to finally have a legit middle-of-the-order guy to protect Pete Alonso. Keep hearing the Cubs will be after Alonso when he’s free."

You mentioning the Heyman article on Bellinger? That one felt highly influenced by Boras leaks, IMO.

I think the HR's are pretty fixable. Looking through the articles on Imanaga out there, it appears that Bertz is correct, he throws a fastball that probably plays better up, too often down. As well, he throws it too often. I think the HR's are something that can be fixed with a pitch mix and a philosophy change. Throw the secondaries more, and try to make him into some version of the left-handed Kevin Gausman: a splitty nightmare who throws backwards.

Personally, I expect Horton to start in Iowa. In fact, I'd be disappointed if he didn't. I think the Cubs were a little extra careful with him coming off TJS last year, but a year removed, and with him going to be a Chicago Cub eventually, he'll have to pitch in some colder weather environments. With Ben Brown, I think you can make the argument the Cubs were still interested in watching his fastball development after entering the organization as a new player in July. Horton has been around and doesn't have that kind of weird fastball command concern and the changeup made some really big gains last year. I could see him getting a bit of a late start (say, a week or two?) to conserve innings for later, but I think he's more than ready for Iowa. I have a sneaking suspicion the Cubs do too.

Yeah, the "One SP, two RP" thing isn't particularly what I wanted to hear. It likely means Brent Suter and I agree: impact or MiLB options. RP's are so volatile, locking yourself into mediocrity like Suter is asking for a bad ride. Not that he will be, but it's begging for one.

On top of that, the Cubs are very much a team who tries to maximize every dollar (you can also read this as "prospect") they can. Spending on the bullpen has been something the team has essentially refused to do as well, instead going with the "create a RP" route versus "buy a RP" route. I find Josh Hader a very unlikely candidate for the Cubs as well.

We'll see. I have a feeling the Cubs will add a reliever, but it will be someone more established. The Cubs have a ton of dudes who have stuff and carry questions with them. Maybe if he's cheap, but I don't really think the Cubs will be the team there. Who knows, though.

Jon Lester was highly anticipated to be a Cub target as they headed into the winter of 2014/2015 due to the Red Sox/Epstein connection.

Wonder if it's Alonso they want.

Interesting to note the Cubs could make a trade to replace Bellinger. Does seem to suggest the Cubs are adverse to negotiating up with Boras clients. A bit concerning if you want them to sign Montgomery or Snell, however.

Mike did all of that in that article. With that said, you're right we shouldn't focus in on a single number, but the totality of Bellinger's batted ball data are really hard to predict as being repeatable for a 130 wRC+ hitter. Doesn't mean it's impossible, but it's highly unlikely. Either his batted ball profile will get better (and while the two strike approach effects some things, it doesn't seem to be just a two-strike thing. His EV with less than two strikes wasn't particularly good) or his wRC+ will likely take a decent hit. Not to "worthless" but likely from ~35% better than average to the 10-20% range.

I've got him pegged somewhere as a 110-120 wRC+ hitter (in that 10-20% better than league average area that the article mentions). Which just isn't good enough for me if we're going to play at 1b over the course of that six year contract as his position for like 70% of it (or even worse, DH). As a primary CF'er that's a different story, but I don't think there's a reason, right now, to believe he's going to play a primary amount of his PA's in the OF with the Cubs over the course of that six years baring a trade we can't see on the horizon. I think the Swanson deal is around where I'd pay him as an OF'er. 7/$175m or so. I would be shocked to see him sign 6/$135m-150m. He'll either get closer to what he's looking for, or go Correa short term, high AAV, multi-opt out and hope a second year of results are on the horizon to help him get to that $200M+ area. I think the least likely scenario is that kind of a contract.

Yeah, I'm probably more along these lines as well, as I just haven't paid any attention to his reporting outside of the Complex. I figure he's made some connections with scouts and the ilk being so well known for his CPX coverage, and why I didn't immediately throw this into the "speculation bin" without any one else providing more context for me. I figure he wouldn't want to upset anyone just saying stuff, which would hurt his access (likely) while at the same time knowing that scouts probably aren't the most "in the know" on the Cubs budget, too.

Here's a question that I don't have a concrete answer on: does AZ Phil have sources within the Cubs, or is he just a really good source of information for the Complex League? Has he any history of breaking information/sources/or anything connected to real information? I ask because he recently posted this, which suggests the Cubs have set the spending limit at the CBT threshold. Is this him speculating because of the lack of action? Or is Phil relaying some fairly concerning information? Not trying to doom-boner, but curious as to how connected AZ Phil is, as I'm honestly not sure. I've always used him as a killer way to follow the Complex and haven't paid attention outside of that. The reality is that if the Cubs aren't going above the CBT, the Cubs offseason is handicapped to hell.

Interesting hire and an interesting path to being the head of player development. Not super unlike Craig Breslow, really, when you consider he was a player who quickly was placed into the position of "Head of Player Development" despite youth/lack of experience. If there's one thing that Breslow had over Kanzler is that "smartest man in baseball" moniker following Ivy League educated Breslow, but I think that's a bit overblown. Going with a coach with hitting background over pitching background is also an interesting wrinkle. Assume Otero continues down a similar path as Breslow in terms of pitching dev, but Kanzler gives them bit of a hitting focus too.