Jason Ross

When did David Bote have "great" batted ball data? Because he had pretty decent batted ball data in 2018 in which he posted good exit velocity, but had a bunch of worrisome things under the hood, like really bad barrel%, bad whiff and chase rates...you get the picture. He was awful in 2019, then had good data (similar to 2018) in 2020. He had some interesting batted ball data with processes that suggested he'd unlikely be able to turn his exit velcoties into anything meaningful. Secondly, had he played 150 games, he'd have finished around 4.7 fWAR. You're right, that's not his career high, but his career high isn't coming back. 2019 Bellinger and 2023 Bellinger are different beasts. Bellinger just isn't the 47 home run guy any more and there's little indication that's coming back. In 2019, Bellinger was 39th in the league in exit velocity...he was 213th last year. In 2019 he was 10th in barrels, in 2023 he was 143rd. There's really little reason to bring up the guy he was because we're signing the guy he's going to be. There's always some "chaff" but he's almost assuredly going to be unable to replicated a 135 wRC+ with the type of hits he's getting. He's not a bad player mind you and there's been some interesting changes in his approach. But he's far more likely going to be 10-20% better than average than 35%+ better than average. He's just incredibly unlikely fWAR 4.7 if he's going to keep this batted ball profile. And no, it's not premature. There's basically no one in the MLB capable of producing 135 wRC+ with his batted ball data. You know who had his batted ball data last year? Guys like Alex Verdugo. Now that's not saying Bellinger=Verdugo, but it's important to realize what kind of batted ball data we have on Bellinger from last year. I'd really recommend reading this article from Mike Petriello. Not only is Mike one of the absolute best in the business, he explains just what kind of a hitter he expects Bellinger to be. One of the points he mentions is that you might not care how Bellinger got to an OPS+ 133...but teams do.

Clase's on a super cheap contact, which can extend to five years with club options. His value is sky-high right now. Morel probably isn't enough, requiring you to likely add more prospect capital. Emmanuel Clase is awesome, but his value is quite prohibitive.

Perhaps. But they did mention 1b, and I think we all know that if the Cubs bring in Bellinger, there will be a very good likelihood he'll have to move from CF to, probably, 1b when they do call up Pete Crow-Armstrong and that didn't seem to stop them mentioning Busch there specifically. I'd take it more at their word: that the Cubs really don't know what position Morel can play.

“He’s certainly going to play, that’s no question,” Hoyer said. “It’s up to Craig (Counsell) where. I think first base is obviously a natural spot for (Busch), he’s played there a lot. But certainly his versatility is also attractive.” versus “If you have a bat that will play in the major leagues, we will find a spot for you to play in the major leagues,” Hawkins said. “If (Morel) can step up in any of those (different positions), his bat is going to be something that just forces us to pencil him in the lineup. Worst case, he’s a DH a lot. Best case, he’s playing great defense for us. He certainly has the athleticism, the hands, the ability to do it. There’s an opportunity for him to be a great all-around player.” I don't think it's so much about "knowing" but Morel himself. At this point, Morel hasn't done anything defensively at a position the Cubs need to suggest he's capable of playing there. They've tried him at 3b in the minors plenty. They tried him in the OF. They have had him work at 1b...then traded for one. Where as Hoyer suggests Busch is a natural spot, the Cubs kind of hem and haw at Morel every time. Hopefully he figures something out because his bat is good enough to play.

Hoyer rarely minces words. I think it's very likely that Hoyer wasn't playing games with Boras and that the Cubs acquired him with the mind he's going to be a 1b with the Cubs most of the time. Notice how they approached Morel very differently from Busch when discussing the two. Busch was tagged a position and Morel was very shruggy "well he can hit we will find him a place". Think that says plenty. Busch is going to 1b, and Morel is a "well we are going to figure it out!". Think if there was a real shot at 3b or somewhere else for Busch they'd have had somewhat similar answers.

That's the thought, but I think you can probably say that scouts would have never envisioned Madrigal being a plus 3b, either. As well, the Cubs have shown that weak armed SS's can be plus defenders there; getting very good defensive seasons from Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson at SS despite "poor" arm strength grades. It's pretty clear that whatever the Cubs are doing defensively, they can makeup for poor arm strength on the left side. It'd be one thing if it was just one player, one year, but this dates back to 2022 now and over the course of a handful of players. If Matt Shaw is going to make it as a 3b, it would seem the Cubs are one of the best organizations to make it happen. Matt Shaw has reportedly taken "99% of his ground balls" this offseason at third. I have a feeling that's not just a choice by Shaw, but asked by the club. I think the Cubs think he can eventually get there at 3b.

Do you think Jed Hoyer would have said "We didn't want to go over the LT and that's why we didn't add a reliever?" He (and mostly Tom Ricketts) would have been killed in the media. Much easier to say "we didn't like the price". The Cubs just dealt, in part, Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope to Michael Busch and Yency Almonte, they're not immune to trades or their prices. Maybe they didn't like the prices. But I have a strong feeling it had more to do with the LT than anything then. And I don't think the Cubs can reasonably finish their shopping list without going over now.

Wonder if the end result was a decision to go with Almonte over Suter. At the price Suter signed for, feels like if the Cubs wanted him, they'd have made that one happen.

Well, I don't take anything personally, so no worries! I'm not someone who cannot separate discussion from personal attacks. I've got thick skin to begin with (benefit of being a middle school teacher!) and I know what we're really discussing is the processes of the article and the analysis, not me personally. So don't worry, I know you're coming from a non-antagonistic place. What I'm trying to do is challenge your assertion that data analysis belongs in financials and not in baseball. You've not really defended anything, except, deflecting with some random anecdotes on Greg Maddux but these don't even really hold up with how baseball teams act to begin with, so the anecdotes are at best poor defense of the stance you've taken (which I do disagree with at it's core). The reality is this: MLB teams use data. They also use the eye test, but at the end of the day, data rules. We can see this in who the best teams consistently hire, and how the best teams consistently draft, how they develop, and who they sign when given the chance in FA. If we're going to break down Matt Mervis, or any prospect, data rules the day. What correlates to MLB better than anything? Literally contact% (I'll link two studies here, one from Medium. the other from Fangraphs). Looking at the change in Mervis' contact rate is integral in determing his progress. Nothing is to suggest he's dead but to suggest that these declining numbers are problematic. This isn't financial data, or over analyzing, it's a real issue.

As others have pointed out, if the Cubs weren't planning on going over the LT this year, they'd likely have gone over at the deadline. Instead, they basically refused to add any real RP and stayed juuuuust under. The Cubs, themselves, have said they're "in the 4th or 5th inning" of their offseason. They still need at least one hitter and an 8th/9th reliever. And if they really aren't going over the LT, they'd have less than $30m, needing to save some overage for the deadline. That'd be a very difficult task to bring in another 3 MLB players for $30m.

Yeah, seen Lance's stuff. Lance is the horsefeathers. With that said, Boras just doesn't lose often, if, basically, ever. What you need is one team that gets a little ahead of themselves. Boras always finds his Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies or Anaheim Angels. Bellinger's either going to get way over that on a short term deal, or be no where short of $25m on a long.

Well, I think we need to remember, no one really plays 162 games any more. Bellinger, even if entirely healthy, is probably looking at 140 games. Then add in the batted ball data: Bellinger looks more like a 110-120 wRC+ hitter moving forward (Mike Petriello laid out a great case). I think Cody Bellinger at 3-3.5 fWAR is a really likely scenario moving forward. He will probably peak and valley outside of that: maybe a bit above 3.5 here, lower there...etc, but I wouldn't expect him to be much better unless the batted ball profile changes (and I don't think you can really predict that getting better right now).

The Cubs are almost assuredly going over the first line of the luxury tax. They probably have closer to $50-$55m left to spend. Based on their "shopping list" it will be not a couple relievers, but one (Hottovoy suggested one 1 SP, two RP's. Almonte and Imanaga are in). Also claim to be in the "4th/5th inning" of the offseason. 3 in already, mid way through, expect 3 more in. So I'd say it's more likely: 1. Big hitter/FA 2. A smaller hitter 3. One 8th/9th RP to go.

I guess. But I also highly believe if a team is giving him seven years, Boras likely hasn't lost this contract, and 7/$168m for Bellinger feels very much like a loss when Byrant pulled down $180+m. I really can't see a scenario where Bryant locks in at only $23m or $24m for seven years. We'll certainly see, but it feels you're very much on the hopeful side of his contract. Boras just loses so rarely. I'll side with him coming away with a win in some fashion...either AAV or total. A 7/$168m feels like a loss in both.

I would eat my shoe if Scott Boras allowed that. At 6 years that's under $140m. $20m+ under Brandon Nimmo's total. Boras is the best in the business for a reason. He'll get someone to give him $160-$180m. Or get that really high AAV stuff. It might not be Chicago, but it'll be someone. I don't think he's getting this $200m+ deal he was banging his chest about, but he won't lose that much. I'll put it this way as well: I appreciate Swasnon really wants Bellinger back, but he's probably not helping as much as he thinks he is.

I think there's almost a zero% chance he gets $23m AAV. He's going to get at least $25m AAV (and thats still probably on the low end) and possibly much, much higher if he gets a short term, high AAV with opt-out thing. The only way he gets $23m AAV is if he signs like an 8 or 9 year contract. His market is cloudy, but it's Scott Boras. Boras is likely looking at the Bryant deal as a baseline for a 6/7 year contract. Usually what Boras wants, he gets. Even with murky markets.

I don't think the Cubs traded Jackson Ferris and Zhir Hope because they're overly worried about the backup plans for Michael Busch. You make that kind of trade because you're confident. Doesn't mean the Cubs can't have another 1b, but I don't think they're worried about the backup, either. They still have Mervis (to date), and they've had Morel work at 1b. Maybe you still sign Hoskins, but I'd do so because you think he's the best bet, and the added 1b ability is just gravy. Nome of that is saying Busch doesn't have some risk, but that the Cubs are likely pretty confident on Busch.

Whether asked by the Cubs or personal choice...Shaw knows. That's the path to the MLB.

Yeah, I get some of the frustrations. With that said, I think the Cubs are off to a good start. They did a really nice and creative deal with Imanaga and I actually really like the Busch trade. The Cubs lack the elite player yet, and it doesn't seem as though they'll have one next year at the start of the season. But it feels like the Cubs are still looking to get stuff done. Figure the Cubs have brought in three players already, and claim to basically be in the 4th/5th inning of their offseason. Maybe three more MLB caliber players. Could be two of three very good players.

Hoyer in another comment said that the Cubs were not precluded in adding another 1b just because they had acquired Busch. And based on the shopping list Hottovy laid out, it was "1 SP". I don't see much to complain about on his comments above. The small-market answer is a bit perturbing as is his belief that their goal is "good deals" not just "getting deals done" (sometimes you *have* to get the deal done and it's not peerect). With that said, they could be meant to be "we like to value players at certain levels and we won't sign a player just because" but with the understanding truly elite players require elite contracts, too.

I think the Cubs will be making some trades. There's a handful of guys the Cubs have that can likely go in some trades. Matt Mervis, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Asad, are a few guys I still think have someupside, but are either blocked or superfluous currently. There's probably teams out there that would like those guys. Could see some smaller deal in the vein of Busch/Ferris where the Cubs move young players for younger prospects (not 40 man).

Appreciate it! Yeah, I think there's a good chance that Merryiweather is really going to be the "go to" 7th inning-RHP guy most days when they're ahead. I think someone like Palencia will join him (eventually) in that role, too. Guys like Leiter/Almonte/Cuas probably more in that 6th inning or "losing in the 7th" role. Figure the Cubs will prioritize an 8th/9th inning pitcher (Stephenson?) to go with Alzolay as an addition.

On January 17th, 2023, the Chicago Cubs claimed Julian Merryweather on waivers after he was designated for assignment by the Toronto Blue Jays. Despite showing upper 90's velocity, the then-31-year-old-reliever had been, at best, tepid, posting a 5.63 ERA to go along with 4.13 xFIP and being worth just .3 fWAR over his first 52 IP in the majors. By the end of the 2024 season, the Cubs had reinvented the reliever into one of their most reliable arms. But...how? Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports The move to claim Julian Merryweather nearly 365 days ago would have gone under the radar for even the most ardent Cubs fans. There was little to be excited about a reliever who had shown such little success to date, and the Cubs have a habit of claiming and then designating for assignment these types of players throughout the Hoyer era, so there was a good chance he'd never make an appearance for the Cubs. Instead, Merryweather would finish the season with an ERA in the mid-3s, an xFIP of 3.61, and accumulate nearly a win of value per FanGraphs, becoming a useful leverage reliever and one of the staples in the Cubs pen. Digging into the data on Merryweather, the surface numbers look much improved, the most glaring of which was his K%. Sitting at a mediocre 24.3% in 2022, the Cubs squeezed a 10% jump in strikeout percentage out of the righty, as Merryweather saw his K% rise to over 32%. The reason behind the jump in strikeout rate is likely behind the 10% whiff% increase Merryweather saw from 2022 to 2023, specifically against left-handed hitters. A pitcher who always boasted an average fastball velocity of over 97mph, Merryweather was finally turning his stuff into results. But the strikeouts didn't come from thin air, and a deeper dive into Merryweather can help pinpoint where the changes occurred. Before coming to the Cubs, Julian sported a four-pitch mix: a four-seam fastball, a slider, a sweeper, and a changeup. Leaning heavily on the fastball, Merryweather threw this pitch to righties over 50% of the time. In 2023, the Cubs made a pitch mix change as Merryweather now threw the four-seam just 30% of the time against righties, leaning heavily on the slider (60%+). Against left-handers, he increased the usage of his slider, which sounds counterintuitive in theory as sliders traditionally work best against same-handed hitters. While Merryweather remained somewhat susceptible to left-handed hitters (left-handers have a wOBA of .305 against him compared to a .280 against righties), his slider shows far more vertical break than horizontal, making it useful against either side. Cutting out his sweeper against left-handers entirely also helped. More importantly, the consistency and shape of his pitches improved. Below are charts that show the horizontal and vertical movement of his pitches from 2023 (left) and 2022 (right). Notice how more consistent the changeup (depicted in purple) is. Even though he decreased the pitch usage, the pitch is far more concentrated in the same area. He also added a sweeper (salmon/pink) instead of a curveball, which began to distinguish itself and separate itself from the slider (green). Again, it's a pitch he doesn't use often, but it gave him a new addition to his arsenal... something with true horizontal instead of vertical movement. The overall result can be seen in the amount of swings and misses that Julian Merryweather got between 2022 and 2023. Looking again at the charts provided by TruMedia, Merryweather did much better in 2023 (left) compared to 2022 (right). He continued to get chases below the zone as he had done previously but also began to get more swings and misses in the zone. It should be noted that Merryweather did walk more hitters in this approach, but gaining more swings and misses in the zone will be good for a pitcher who will walk a few more. Overall, it becomes clear that Julian Merryweather's time in Chicago last year resulted in an improved pitcher. Gains in consistency, shape, and pitch mix transformed a pitcher who always had good stuff into a pitcher who finally began showing impressive results. I don't think Julian Merryweather is a guy you want closing, but he's also a great asset in the 7th and 8th innings and a pitcher capable of getting those essential swings and misses when needed. The Cubs shouldn't refuse to add bullpen help (with players like Robert Stephenson, Phil Maton, David Robertson, etc, still available). Still, they can also feel comfortable moving forward with Merryweather as a staple in the bullpen for 2024. Where do you think Julian Merryweather fits into the Cubs' 2024 bullpen plans? Are there other pitchers you think can make the kinds of jumps he did? Let us know in the comment section! View full article