Jason Ross

That makes sense. So probably something to monitor in the grand scheme, but nothing to stress about, either. Appreciate the answer.

Certainly...less than ideal. Hoping it's one of those small sample fluctuations. Like he had a few bad games, but they'd smooth out. Does ZiPS use OAA or UZR? Or do we even know? (I don't hopefully someone else does)

I think the circumstances were very different. When the Cubs signed Jake Arrieta coming out of 2020 and into 2021, the expectations for the Cubs were "rebuilding". Sure, they had Bryant, Baez and a few other good players, but the previous two were on one-year-deals with no extension in sight, they had just traded Darvish for half of a HS team, payroll was down, and it was clear the direction they were going. This was a "hope he has a good first half of baseball and trade 'em!" type of a lottery ticket for a VP of baseball entering his first season. There was a good dose of sentimentality there, as well. Jed Hoyer enters 2025 with an 83 win team in which people feel as though they kind of underachieved with. A team with playoff aspirations. They're a team with most of the positions locked up for more than one season - there's no real feel here that the Cubs are blowing it up in July. He also comes in with a one year contract and on the hot seat meaning Jed can't afford a mid-season blow up. They're not desperate for a 1b-only type, either. Sure, the Cubs, did, once sign someone for sentimentality but I don't think that means they'll do it again. Under this pretense, they'll resign Hendricks over bringing in another SP to upgrade the rotation. The circumstances surrounding 2021 and 2025 are vastly different. Both from a team standpoint and a personal standpoint from Hoyer. Maybe Hoyer signs Rizzo, or Hendricks, but I think it's pretty damn unlikely all things considered. If this was a 70 win team who had trouble selling tickets and a blow up was looming with a settled VP? Maybe they go one-last-dance. But this is a GM who in theory should be scraping to be employed in 2026.

Yeah, but the Yankees are really good at most positions and don't have a lot of internal 1b options. Rizzo's 84 wRC+ is the best on the team of anyone who played 1b. They can't really add anyone at this point, so it's Rizzo or...no one. The Cubs have $50-$80m of money to spend and lots of prospects. They have a lot of options considering they don't even need the guy to be 1b - if Bellinger opts out, they could go a lot of directions. They'd have to get really, really low on the list to get to a 91 wRC+ 1b.

Unless Jed Hoyer straight up doesn't give a horsefeathers about his job I don't think the Cubs will go with Rizzo and his 91 wRC+ over the last 700 PA's. They don't have a spot on the team for a 1b/DH who doesn't hit or sentimentality unless Jed doesn't care if he's here in 2026 or not. Goldschmidt could fill a role considering he bashes LHP still. But I'd assume it'd come with a LHH at the DH spot who crushes RHP and only as a solution later in the offseason. But Goldy has been on a two year down spell and I think we're at a stage where Hoyer isn't running after him (think how the Cubs didn't really pursuit Justin Turner). I'm not sure what the bat will be. And I don't know how aggressive the Cubs will be. Frankly, I think this is time to be a bit aggressive, especially prospect wise. Kyle Tucker feels like your "Mookie Betts" guy if you want a one-year guy you can try to sign. And I think there are plenty of controllable assets that can be had (though those are hard to pin point as they're not really being "shopped"). But I think the Cubs will probably at least be at the "Goldy only as a platoon DH guy" level.

Yep. His body just doesn't work for SS. He's not your typical build for the position (short and stock versus tall and leaner) and there's little power. I have some hope that there's a mechanical change that can get the kid to like 10 home runs...but man, it's a squint to get there. Which sucks because there's a lot to like.

I have my doubts and concerns over whether or not Jed Hoyer has enough willingness to make the big move happen, be it a trade where you take a bit of a prospect gut punch to get a really good player, or the major monetary investment on a free agent pushing $200+m on a longer term deal (thinking over seven). But I'm not overly concerned with him cheaping out or being uncreative in the mid-market. He pulled in Michael Busch last year as a creative first base solution and was willing to go with Imanaga in the midfield of the starting pitching options. The Cubs didn't top the SS market, but the Swanson deal has been successful despite the dollar signs and Taillon's contract hasn't been a hindrance. It's probably fair to point out some of the super-cheapo options the Cubs went with didn't always work great. Hosmer was probably always destined to fail and Mancini was a bust. Villar and Simmons didn't turn into fun trade pieces. But I think those were always seen as "lottery tickets to sell" versus "players to win with". Generally speaking, I think he's done fairly decent in term of those. So in the end, I don't think Jed Hoyer, who has to know his job is definitely not guaranteed for 2026 (with no contract extension given yet and the lack of playoff appearances) will go with the "sentimental" choice as his offensive addition. I'm at least confident that if the Cubs don't go big-game-fishing that they will probably do something more substantial. It might be a Joc Pederson + platoon guy, or a Danny Jansen thing, but it'll be over Rizzo.

Fair take! I'm not as forgiving as he displayed a solid 70+ innings and 27 appearances across 2023 and 2024 post surgery with just...atrocious walk issues, but that comes back to subjectivity and what flavors we're all looking at, so it feels like while we disagree on the subjective part there, I think we both agree that the year ended strong and we're excited about who/what he can be. I think that's far more important anyways...the future. I quite like Gray as a prospect. Probably adds to the disappointment on my end, which is inherent biases.

In our first part of North Side Baseball's annual look at the Cubs' minor-league system, we discussed the State of the Union down on the farm, while also highlighting a few off-the-radar prospects to keep an eye on. Today, we will explore numbers 16-20 on our community-created prospect list. Who ended up in this range, and how does their future look? Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images As we highlighted in part one of ourseries, it was generally a good year for Cubs prospects, especially at the top tier of the system. If there's a place where prospects took a back slide, it would be in the bottom portion of the top-20 list, and sadly, that was the case for a few of the prospects in this area. It's not to say that these prospects are finished, but there are some real areas of needed polish and learning for these types to break through, not only to the top-10 but into MLB. #20 - Pedro Ramirez, 2b/SS, South Bend Cubs (High-A) Pedro Ramirez is an interesting case, and a telling foil for some players higher on the list than him. Going simply on the numbers, Ramirez had a pretty darn successful age-20 season; posting a 111 wRC+ at an age-appropriate level. Based on that information alone, you'd probably wonder how he ended up this low on the list. The sad answer is: projection, or the lack thereof. The infielder is close to maxed out physically, with a stocky build and not a lot of height to spare, being listed at just 5-foot-8. While the wRC+ is good, it's almost all OBP driven, as the right-handed hitter hit just four home runs on the season. Where there's some hope is that Ramirez does possess better-than-average speed, tallying seven triples and 19 doubles to go along with 14 steals, so there's a little more to his game. Heading into 2025, the diminutive middle infielder should get a promotion to Tennessee and the Double-A Tennessee Smokies. There's little competition at that level, so he should see the lion's share of playing time. With that said, Ramirez is likely going to have to show improved power to really stick around. The Cubs aren't the most flush at the middle infield positions, but his ceiling is probably becoming a 40-man up-and-down depth piece and a potential backup. He's competing with Luis Vazquez and the recently acquired Ben Cowles for that gig long-term, and that gig really isn't a long-term one, anyway. A good 2025 could see Ramirez get to Iowa and put himself into the thick of that position battle. A bad one could see him crowded out of the organization altogether. #19 - Luis Vazquez, INF, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) The defensive-minded shortstop Vazquez burst onto the scene in 2023 with strong offensive performances at stops in Tennessee and Iowa, putting himself into prime position as the Cubs entered 2024 to be the "next man up". While it's hard to say Vazquez had a "bad" season, as he still posted a 104 wRC+ in Iowa, it felt like a bit of a stall-out. Usually, you'd like to see prospects in their second attempt at a level show mastery with improved offensive numbers. Instead, Vazquez posted essentially similar numbers, with a bit of a decline in his walk rate and strikeout rate. While his bat was never (and will never be) his calling card, he has to show more thump to force the issue, and when the Cubs needed infielders, players such as Miles Mastrobuoni and Nick Madrigal got most of the call-ups. Next season will be very important for Vazquez and his attempt to break into the highest level. Nico Hoerner, the clear starting option at second base, had arm surgery, which could open up a spot for someone to barge through early in 2025. While Matt Shaw could take the starting spot, Vazquez could be a real option if he has a strong Spring Training. Cowles will offer less with the glove, but if his improved plate approach sticks, his bat could blossom in a way Vazquez's likely won't. #18 Michael Arias, RP, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) Arias has been a really cool find for the Cubs' scouting department over the last two seasons. The former Toronto Blue Jays farmhand first signed as an infielder, but has emerged on the pitching side of things and has quickly rocketed up the system, finishing his 2024 season with the Iowa Cubs. Not everything is perfect, however, as Arias really struggled for command, walking a whopping 36 hitters in 33 appearances in Triple-A. While I'd love to report improvement over his time, Arias struggled off and on with the walks all the way until the end, finishing with over 20% of his pitches being classified as "non-competitive" (those more than 18 inches from the center of the zone in any direction). Thankfully, he showed above-average in-zone whiff rates and offers a pretty funky arm angle, so not everything is lost. Moving forward, the righthander simply has to find more consistency and hit the zone more often. He has the stuff to make life hard on righty batters, if he experiences a forward leap in terms of command and control. While these things are hard to predict, they can also come together in a hurry, and we need to look no further than Porter Hodge, another big arm who seemed to figure out it and turned into a weapon out of the Cubs' pen. #17 Alfonsin Rosario, OF, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Low-A) Rosario feels like the other side of the coin from Ramirez. With a .230 batting average, striking out well over 30% of the time, and being a bit over-aged for a prep-drafted player, you'd wonder just how a sixth-round pick a year ago would make a top-20 list. The answer, much like the one to the question we posed about Ramirez, is: projection. Rosario, who is already listed at 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds. is a beast of a human being with some impressive raw power. In a rough hitting environment, the outfielder slugged 16 home runs; he added 18 more doubles and four triples. The man can move his frame: he added 20 steals, as well. Made even more impressive, the outfielder played primarily center field with the Pelicans—adding to the potential upside. So, despite the contact issues, Rosario finished with a cool 127 wRC+ with Myrtle Beach. It's likely that the big-bodied outfielder will begin 2025 up a level with South Bend. This should be a bit of a productive struggle, as he works on cleaning up the strikeouts while flashing that raw power. The Cubs have had some success with free swingers in recent years, so the hope is that the team can find a way to get Rosario to hit more baseballs, while not sacrificing power. Rosario is a lottery-ticket type. There's a version of Rosario that could remind you of Yoenis Céspedes in center field: hitting 30 home runs and stealing 15 bags, but there's also a more likely version that strikes out too much and flames out somewhere before he ever makes an MLB club. Regardless, he's one of the most fun prospects in the system to dream about. #16 Drew Gray, SP, South Bend Cubs (High-A) I'm not sure any prospect in the system had a more disappointing 2024 than Gray. Upon trading Jackson Ferris to the Dodgers in the deal that brought back Michael Busch, it looked to many that Gray would turn into the heir-apparent when it came to the top lefty arms in the system. Gray had struggled in the past with walks, but the hope was that he could turn some of that around as he got further away from Tommy John surgery and that he'd find some footing and show improvement. Sadly for the Cubs and Gray, the control issues seemingly got worse at the start of the season, as the lefty walked one of every five hitters he faced. This limited, especially early in the season, his ability to go deeper into games. as Gray completed more than four innings just once before the MiLB All-Star Break. If there's a positive, it's that there was improvement post-break, with Gray dropping his walk rate to 14.3% over his last 33 innings. This allowed the lefty to go longer, achieving 5+ innings in five of his final seven outings, while having a strikeout rate over 30%. Seven starts are hard to bank on moving forward, but there was some progress, and as we know, progress isn't linear. I suspect Gray will start in South Bend, but if he can continue his strike-throwing-ways, he could see Tennessee by early to mid-May. There's still a really good starting option here, and someone who I think has mid-rotation ceiling if the strike-throwing keeps up. So while it sounds doom-and-gloom, it's probably more that we just need to continue to be patient with the lefty. Pitching development is especially quirky, these days, and his raw materials remain intriguing. View full article

Cam Smith? Yes. Probably where he belongs.

Got The rest of the top-20 coming soon! Appreciate yall reading it.

We're kicking off our annual prospect list with some players who just missed the NSBB top 20. Who just missed our list? Image courtesy of © MANDATORY CREDIT: Austin Hough / South Bend Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK 2024 System Overview 2024 was a good year for the Cubs minor-league system. Some players didn't have the best of seasons due to injury (Cade Horton and Brennen Davis come to mind), others who just struggled to put it all together (BJ Murray and Haydn McGeary) as well, but for the most part, I'd say you'd have to come away feeling pretty strong about the overall health of the list. On the positive side, the Cubs saw players such as Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Michael Busch graduate from their top-10 list and have varying degrees of success at the MLB level. Jordan Wicks displayed a better-than-before ability to generate whiffs, though his season was thrown off the rails with injuries. Ben Brown was a hero of the first few months, filling in for injured top-of-the-rotation-Justin Steele, who suffered an Opening Day injury. Pete Crow-Armstrong debuted earlier than expected and, despite early struggles, came on late and showed that he could be an impact-type talent. And Michael Busch stabilized the first base position. As we will explore in this series, most of the Cubs' best prospects saw seasons that you'd feel nothing but solid about. While there's still a lack of a true "star" talent akin to Jackson Holliday, it'd be hard to say that the Cubs lack starting-caliber types. 2024 Honorable Mentions We will later highlight our NSBB top 20, but some prospects just missed the list of who should be on people's radars and who could quickly make their way onto the next top 20 come mid-season. These players are a collection of under-the-radar types and those who were added during the draft and could explode. There's no particular order; however, it's just a collection of guys I'd keep an eye on if I were you. Sam Armstrong, SP, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A) A 6'2", 245 lbs starting pitcher drafted in the 13th round of the 2023 draft, all Armstrong has done so far is a pitch to results. Starting his 2024 season off in South Bend with the High-A club, the righty posted impressive numbers, with an ERA just at 3.00, a GB% over 40%, and a K% north of 20%. While the K% dipped upon his promotion to Double-A Tennessee, Armstrong lowered his ERA and improved his FIP. Some concerns with the stuff likely kept people from adding him to the top 20. Still, he's someone who's worked hard to transform his body (Armstrong is a very large human), and with added conditioning and change, I think you can argue that the Cubs may have found a bit of a diamond in the rough here. Cole Mathis, 1B/3B (Has yet to debut) Cole Mathis was this year's second-round selection out of the College of Charleston. Sadly for Mathis, he immediately underwent Tommy John surgery and never made his debut with the Cubs at a minor-league affiliate. Despite knowing he needed surgery on draft day, the Cubs still announced him as a third baseman and gave him full slot. Unlike pitchers, we should expect a mostly healthy Mathis to return in the spring. Mathis may play first until his elbow strength fully returns, however. What makes Mathis so intriguing is his bat-to-ball skills, coupled with his power potential. He had wonderful Cape Cod league numbers, too. There's an intriguing bat here and someone who could force his way into some top-10 lists next year if things go well. Brody McCullough, SP, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A) Brody McCullough started the 2024 season off in impressive fashion, earning a promotion to Tennessee off of 10 innings pitched at South Bend. Despite having offseason knee surgery, the right-hander looked like he had picked up where he left off and was potentially going to shoot through the system a bit. He made his debut in Tennessee on May 10th, pitching four innings, striking out seven while allowing a lone home run... then we never saw him again. Mystery shrouds the injury, as it's been unspecified, and McCullough spent the rest of the season on the 60-day injured list. There are enough tools in the arsenal and enough upside that despite being left off the list, people should keep an eye on him if he returns: he could make an interesting bullpen or rotation arm. But there are enough question marks, and essentially, a fully missed season means he doesn't deserve to be in the top 20. Brett Bateman, OF, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A) I remain fairly lukewarm on the MLB prospects of someone like Brett Bateman because he's a very specialized player; he's great at getting on base, has speed, and the glove is reportedly very good... but there's literally zero power in his profile. Despite this, thus far, the diminutive outfielder has posted wRC+s well north of 100 at both Low A and High A. However, it seemed to catch up with him at Double A, as he posted a miniscule .009 ISO and an 80 wRC+, though he managed to keep his BB% nearing the 12% mark and an OBP over .330. Being so specialized may make Bateman an interesting 40-man add someday as a playoff specialist (ala Jarrod Dyson of Kansas City Royals fame). So, while I don't see a starter's build, there are just enough tools that he should be someone on the periphery of your radar...just close enough you don't entirely forget him entering the 2025 season. View full article

Y'all are taking me far too seriously today. I know this. 'Twas but a tounge in cheek joke, friend.

Haha I know. That was a tongue in cheek comment about how I know better, I just know future me won't take my own advice for like a few days every offseason. I'm more than capable 99% of the time. But some Friday night at 9:15pm I'll read a tweet and get optimistic for a hot minute. I'll be able to rationalize with myself again shortly after.

I know this deep down. But someone like Bruce Levine is going to tweet that the Cubs haven't internally ruled out Juan Soto and I'm going to like get really hype for four days like I've never been hurt before.

We fully agree here. I'm trying to hype myself up to think that the Cubs are ready to do something surprising here and kind of break their recent mold (I'm really of the mind that it's really a good time to make a headlining move for a defined, very good player outside of the budget/value conscious style of recent times). I fear the same disappointment of a Luis Severino or a Walker Buehler (though Walker's from Lexington, so itd be cool to see a home town guy on the Cubs).

I'd guess it's a combination of a handful of things - tinkering with mechanics, tinkering with pitch mix, tinkering with pitch shape.... I do think there's a good deal of "stuff" being the deciding factor. But I think that's probably been, historically, a reason for the failure of most prospects in general. Many times it's been said that the NPB is somewhere in the vicinity of Double-A to Triple-A (though with the gulf between the MLB and Triple-A growing, it's hard to really pin point it now. But someone like Sam Armstrong is cruising in Tennessee right now but stuff wise he's a long shot to be an impact MLB arm. But yeah, certainly no Fujunami expert here either! Only a real cursory knowledge of him.

My somewhat pedantic counter point would be this: isn't that kind of the same thing, though? The reason he didn't translate is because he didn't throw enough strikes. I'd say that's the same thing. We have seen this with MiLB arms too - guys appear to not walk hitters until hitters become better and don't chase their stuff. Fuinami didn't walk hitters in the NPB very often (most years).

I think there's a point in the offseason where Sugano could help. But I don't think the Cubs should have to reach that point, if that makes sense? This isn't really a "horsefeathers on Sugano" situation but "he feels like too much of a square peg for a round hole". The Cubs, whether or not Bellinger opts in, should have plenty of money and prospects to either sign someone who fits better (velocity and a more known quantity) before they get to a point where they should really be at Sugano on the checklist. There comes a point where you can sacrifice a bit of surplus value for getting "the" guy. Some Japanese pitchers do succeed initially - Senga and Imanaga are two recent examples. Kikuchi, on the other hand, was not particularly good right away, Fujinami is an example of a recent failure. Yamamoto should be fine long term, but he struggled initially in his first few starts. I think the top end ones are generally going to be good, I just don't think Sugano is necessarily a top-end guy with his build, putting him more in the mid-field. His Japanese success is undeniable, but we also know that the Japanese game does run a bit different in what works and what doesn't. Long winded answer (sorry, it's my nature), I just don't think Sugano would be my top-5 guys I'd be looking for. If it's mid-January, the Cubs have struck out across the board (through real efforts) and we are still looking for the rotational piece? I'd cycle back to Sugano as I don't think he's a turd. I just don't think he's anything atop my wish list and the Cubs should be at a point where being picky early and getting the best guy should be their priority.

I think there's a chance you can get a guy out of him, but I also hope the Cubs veer away. He's right handed, which is something the Cubs could probably use, but the concerns about how the velocity will play at the MLB level, and how the Cubs rotation is already pretty reliant on a lack of overall stuff has me fairly uninterested in his larger fit into the puzzle. I'd hope the Cubs would be shooting for "definitely better than Taillon" and while Sugano might be marginally better than Taillon there's enough question there that I'd be fairly disappointed if that was the route the Cubs went with.

I actually think a lot of the swing issues on Shaw are a bit overblown. I had a big response in the Shaw thread the other day that I think many missed. Just to recap it: 1. Shaw has shown zero contact issues with velo thus far at Triple-A posting contact% in the 80+ range on fastballs over 94+mph. I would expect that much of the concern on the leg kick is that he would struggle to get to velo. Shaw, instead, kills fastballs. 2. Shaw has shown a two strike approach with a smaller leg kick which has resulted in above average Triple-A exit velos (I used his two-strike exit velo and compared it to Triple-A two strike exit velo). He does get more GB% heavy in the scenario, but so does the league. There's work there, but I'm not sure it's that much work. When it comes to Shaw, the data doesn't have glaring issues with the mechanics. None of that is to say that he can't be exposed with better stuff - the gulf between Triple-A and the MLB is...growing. I fully expect any and all prospects to initially struggle, probably for 45-60 games at the MLB level. I suspect tweaks will occur/.be made. But I also wonder if the concern with Shaw's swing comes from "most players who have exaggerated movements have to change" because most of those do need some work. But there are still handfuls of players who have some exaggerated motions who do just fine, You never want to predict and exception to the general rule, but I can't find much in the data to suggest Shaw can't be one.

Not ideal. I didn't think it was likely that the Cubs would move him in the offseason (though a creative trade involving him wasn't the craziest idea on the planet) but this kind of eliminates most of the remaining likelihood.

So I think we need a little history reminder here. In 2015, the Cubs were starting Miguel Montero at catcher. Montero finished the season with a 107 wRC+ and was worth 3.1 fWAR. Needless to say, the Chicago Cubs in 2015 didn't have a catching issue. The backup catcher was David Ross, who was used as a personal catcher for one of every five starts on top of his normal catching duties. Was he good in 2015? No. But no one was replacing him for those Lester starts, so it's not like there's going to be any movement there. Kyle Schwarber was called up prior to the Cubs game on July 17th - Montero had been recently hurt. From July 17th until August 6th (right before Montero's re-call), Schwarber played 15 of his 19 games at catcher. After that, as the third catcher, he played...four games. So...to recap: 1. The Cubs called up Kyle Schwarber upon their starting catcher being hurt. The only other partial call up prior was to be a DH in the AL, but his real callup coincided with a need at catcher. 2., Kyle Schwarber played a good deal of catcher during that time in which they needed a catcher. 3. Upon their good starting catcher returning, and having the need for a personal catcher for Lester, Schwarber played mostly LF. They did not need a catcher any more. 4. Kyle Schwarber tore his knee to shreds the next season and we never really saw the experiment continue. The Cubs didn't operate like a team who didn't see Kyle Schwarber as a potential catcher. They used him as a catcher when they needed him to, and then used him in other ways afterwards because the position was quite productive. This is also an odd hill to die on before Ballesteros comes up. He's logged zero innings at MLB catcher and so far in Triple-A is splitting time between C, DH and even a few moonlights at 1b. We have no idea how much he'll play at catcher at the MLB level - he may play more...currently his only MLB competition would be Miguel Amaya...far short of a catcher having a 3 win season. Now, the Cubs may add someone like Logan O'Hoppe, who they reportedly tried to trade for in July in which case, he probably wouldn't play at catcher at all over O'Hoppe or Amaya due to his defensive questions. They may add a backup type and he'd be able to force his way in. But we've yet to see any way shape or form how the Cubs view him at the level of Schwarber. So to say he's better than Schwarber based on this information...it's illogical. It doesn't follow a throughline. This is acting like the Cubs used Ballesteros a ton at the MLB level and Schwarber none. When the reality is Schwarber was originally called up as a catching solution to a catching injury and Ballesteros is in the AFL right now. At best it's an incomplete data set,(which suggests that the catching situation for both would be identical upon callup) at worse it's just misrepresenting how the Cubs used Schwarber in 2015.