I still refuse to believe BABIP is all luck. You're telling me a pitcher has no control of the ball once it hits the bat? I don't get that. the best way to explain it is how Bill James (I think it was him) explained it when people started saying this: (paraphrased) ' Obviously pitchers have some degree of control over whether a batted ball drops for a hit, but its much much less than what we thought it was ' pitchers have a lot of control over whether a ball is hit in the air, hit on the ground or popped up. each of those outcomes have their own degree of chance in whether or not the ball is a hit or not. the reason why i tend to believe pitchers have a low amount of control over their BABIP is because it tends to fluctuate wildly season to season with the same pitchers, while other metrics (strike outs, walks, home runs given up) tend to stay more constant. even amazing pitchers have bad BABIP years.