So that doesn't follow your original good-one-year-or-so-and-then-mediocre-the-rest-of-their-career theory, right? ERA+ Numbers for Sasaki: 2000 - 145 2001 - 130 2002 - 166 2003 - 110 I'd argue Sasaki's best season came in his third year, and I think his age and messy divorce were more to blame for his performance drop in 2003 rather than the league getting used to him. I don't see how this relates to your original claim. Again, I think only Shingo's career has followed your theory to date. Take Ishii's ERA+ numbers as another example: 2002 - 89 2003 - 104 2004 - 88 2005 - 81 His best season was his second year, then his third season mirrored his first, and his fourth season didn't drop off much from that. He hasn't been very good overall, but that's beside the point. And I don't think Ohka ever played in NPB. Don't forget Shinjo and Taguchi. Don't agree and don't think the numbers support your theory. If the Cubs were lucky enough to win Matsuzaka's rights, I hope they'd hang on to him for awhile. He wouldn't be a free agent for six seasons, after all.