Why so down on Pierre?

[Bluescale]

Pierre is the perfect leadoff hitter for a team lead by Baker. He doesn't strikeout and he doesn't take walks. He's blazing fast, but he still isn't a good baserunner (just like most of the rest of the team). He can catch the ball, he just can't throw it.

 

I'm of the opinion that pinning your hopes on the continued success of a slap hitter when half his games will be played in Wrigley is a *HUGE* gamble. His range in Wrigley will be excellent after a park like Pro Player, and he might hit another HR or two. Unfortunately, his few doubles and triples will go down because the gaps in the OF just won't be there.

[Warpticon]

On a bit of a tangent, this just reminds me of people's selective reasoning. Why is it that a guy like Adam Dunn is constantly being criticized as being one-dimensional (despite being in the top one half of one percentile in both power and on base average in all of baseball), and guys like Pierre are called scrappy difference-makers who play the game right? Pierre is the epitome of a one-dimensional player. He hits balls on the ground and runs real fast. Sometimes that creates hits, of which 82% are singles. Sometimes he gets to second, but he's typically gotten out close to 1/3 of his attempts (this was one of the few areas he was actually better in last season). It's just funny (and by "funny" I mean "absurd") the way people selectively judge things.

 

I'm down on acquiring Pierre for several reasons.

 

* Pierre stands to make about 6 million minimum this year, which I think is overpriced for what he brings to the table. There are other options available which will be either cheaper or better.

* The Cubs are pursuing Furcal. Not only is Furcal better overall (better slugging, much better base stealer, MUCH better defense more than make up for a 10 point difference in OBP), but he's also more highly valued because of his position. If the Cubs get Furcal, Pierre becomes completely redundant and essentially an inferior clone of Furcal.

* Pierre's speed isn't a great benefit offensively. You can't tout his ability to beat out infield hits and his 200 hits as independent benefits, as one begets the other. So he gets 200 hits. Fine. If he doesn't get 200 hits, he becomes near worthless as a ballplayer, since he contributes little else--he never walks (just because he also rarely strikes out doesn't make this less of a downside, by the way), is weak defensively, and has absolutely no power. 2004 was out of line--he's a decent base stealer most of the time, but that doesn't make a huge difference. Somebody said "he still got 50;" While that's nice, it helps to be more effective. Somebody said "how many 35 HR hitters do we need?" This is interesting, as raw volume seems important with homers (which actually guarantee runs), but are the main component of stolen base accomplishment in some eyes. I disagree.

* Pierre would essentially be a one-year rental, as Pie should be MLB ready before long. If we're going to rent somebody, I'd like him to be a lot less redundant and more all-around productive than Pierre is likely to be.

 

 

I really hope that someday people will begin to realize that "speed at the top of the order" has pretty much always been an attempt to maximize the usefulness of guys who don't have a lot else to offer offensively, rather than some preordained rule for ideal lineups. Not caring about your leadoff man's SLG isn't unlike not caring about your #5 man's SLG. It's not as though it's not needed throughout the order; it's just needed more in certain spots than in others.

[Magnetic Curses]

On a bit of a tangent, this just reminds me of people's selective reasoning. Why is it that a guy like Adam Dunn is constantly being criticized as being one-dimensional (despite being in the top one half of one percentile in both power and on base average in all of baseball), and guys like Pierre are called scrappy difference-makers who play the game right? Pierre is the epitome of a one-dimensional player. He hits balls on the ground and runs real fast. Sometimes that creates hits, of which 82% are singles. Sometimes he gets to second, but he's typically gotten out close to 1/3 of his attempts (this was one of the few areas he was actually better in last season). It's just funny (and by "funny" I mean "absurd") the way people selectively judge things.

 

I'm down on acquiring Pierre for several reasons.

 

* Pierre stands to make about 6 million minimum this year, which I think is overpriced for what he brings to the table. There are other options available which will be either cheaper or better.

* The Cubs are pursuing Furcal. Not only is Furcal better overall (better slugging, much better base stealer, MUCH better defense more than make up for a 10 point difference in OBP), but he's also more highly valued because of his position. If the Cubs get Furcal, Pierre becomes completely redundant and essentially an inferior clone of Furcal.

* Pierre's speed isn't a great benefit offensively. You can't tout his ability to beat out infield hits and his 200 hits as independent benefits, as one begets the other. So he gets 200 hits. Fine. If he doesn't get 200 hits, he becomes near worthless as a ballplayer, since he contributes little else--he never walks (just because he also rarely strikes out doesn't make this less of a downside, by the way), is weak defensively, and has absolutely no power. 2004 was out of line--he's a decent base stealer most of the time, but that doesn't make a huge difference. Somebody said "he still got 50;" While that's nice, it helps to be more effective. Somebody said "how many 35 HR hitters do we need?" This is interesting, as raw volume seems important with homers (which actually guarantee runs), but are the main component of stolen base accomplishment in some eyes. I disagree.

* Pierre would essentially be a one-year rental, as Pie should be MLB ready before long. If we're going to rent somebody, I'd like him to be a lot less redundant and more all-around productive than Pierre is likely to be.

 

 

I really hope that someday people will begin to realize that "speed at the top of the order" has pretty much always been an attempt to maximize the usefulness of guys who don't have a lot else to offer offensively, rather than some preordained rule for ideal lineups. Not caring about your leadoff man's SLG isn't unlike not caring about your #5 man's SLG. It's not as though it's not needed throughout the order; it's just needed more in certain spots than in others.

 

mastro over on the espn boards use to argue that the team's best hitter should bat first to maximize their plate appearances over 162 games.

 

i think that something like that could only be attempted in the american league, when you can put some OBP guys down in the order and don't have to deal with the pitcher's spot.

[JeffH]

Nice post, but are there any reasonable people suggesting that Pierre is more valuable than Dunn?

 

Suppose Pierre can be acquired for one out of options pitcher, one Rule 5 eligible pitcher, and one other pitcher in neither of those categories.

 

Suppose Dunn will cost Pie, Hill, Pinto, and Wuertz.

 

Which is better for the organization? You may say Dunn, but that's arguable, whereas Pierre>Dunn is not.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Nice post, but are there any reasonable people suggesting that Pierre is more valuable than Dunn?

 

I think his contention was that the same people who waver a bit on Dunn because of his "one dimension" are the some of the same ones who fawn over Pierre for his "all around game".

[Warpticon]

Nice post, but are there any reasonable people suggesting that Pierre is more valuable than Dunn?

 

I think his contention was that the same people who waver a bit on Dunn because of his "one dimension" are the some of the same ones who fawn over Pierre for his "all around game".

 

Exactly.

 

Also, over the last 3 years, Dunn's been a more accurate base stealer than Pierre. :lol:

 

And I wasn't saying anything about anybody saying Pierre was better than Dunn in that first paragraph. I was talking about contradictive criticism, which is why I opened with "on a bit of a tangent."

 

I honestly do not want Pierre, period. I could live if he shows up, but I'll be very disappointed if the Cubs end up with him, Furcal, Murton, and a stopgap in right. Especially since there are more productive options out there that won't require the cost in either money or players that Pierre looks to cost.

[b_wiggy_66]

Pierre only made 3.5 million this season and is Arbitration Elligible. He won't make 8 Mil after the season he had last year.

[SeldomSeen]

If someone starts a BandWGN for Pierre, I might have to run it off the road. :P

 

cough**jasonduboisbandwgn**cough, cough :P

[Outshined_One]

If someone starts a BandWGN for Pierre, I might have to run it off the road. :P

 

cough**jasonduboisbandwgn**cough, cough :P

 

Don't forget the original, which ended up crashing into a tree.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If someone starts a BandWGN for Pierre, I might have to run it off the road. :P

 

cough**jasonduboisbandwgn**cough, cough :P

 

Don't forget the original, which ended up crashing into a tree.

 

I haven't had much luck with my BandWGN's. I started driving the "Wade Miller for Closer BandWGN" and we crashed and burned pretty quickly. I think the "Jason Dubois BandWGN" could have survived if Dusty hadn't placed so many obstacles in the road. But oh well....

 

I would fire up my Octavio Dotel BandWGN, but I've learned my lesson. I think I'll start the Neifury BandWGN and hope my streak continues.

[jjgman21]

let's face it, the only desireable attributes of Pierre is ok OBP and good speed.

 

Is it completely out of the realm of possiblility to think Dwaine Bacon could give you the same OBP and SB% as Pierre? all Bacon does year after year is put up terrible SB% and fantastic OBP, no matter what level he is at, and he does it with walks, so the friendly confines wouldn't damage his numbers like it would Pierre. he stikes out a ton (not too important as the leadoff man and batting behind the pitcher), but would make the league minimum.

 

any chance we already have a stop gap leadoff guy in the system in the person of Dwaine Bacon?

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Talk of Pie to get Pierre is nuts. I don't think it should take more than Patterson and Brian Dopirak to bring in Pierre, nor do I think it will. If the Marlins insisted on one of our mid-level pitching prospects like Nolasco or Ryu instead of Dopirak, I'd still do the deal.

 

Keep in mind that even if Pierre gets say, $6MM in arbitration, Patterson cost us $3MM in 2005. The net $$ outlay here is small relative to the improvement at the margin that Pierre will bring to this team.

 

I'm struggling why folks can't see the potential big jump in team runs scored if Pierre and Furcal are at the top of the lineup, hitting in front of Lee, Ramirez and someone like Abreu or Dunn or Giles.

 

I'm also tired of the talk about Pierre's 2005. He had a down season, everyone knows this. He's also had three outstanding seasons to his credit, I'm of the opinion that three outweighs one. Give the guy a chance.

[JeffH]

Is it completely out of the realm of possiblility to think Dwaine Bacon could give you the same OBP and SB% as Pierre?

 

In the sense that nothing is out of the realm of possibility, then no.

 

Within the confines of reality, yes, it's impossible.

[jjgman21]

Is it completely out of the realm of possiblility to think Dwaine Bacon could give you the same OBP and SB% as Pierre?

 

In the sense that nothing is out of the realm of possibility, then no.

 

Within the confines of reality, yes, it's impossible.

 

you say so, therefore it is?

 

this is the type of indepth analysis that we've all come to expect here at nsbb. wait...sorry, I was confused....this is the type of snide remark that brings this place down to the level we all tried escape from when we left other boards.

 

prey tell, why is it impossible?

[JeffH]

Scouts and professional baseball people say so.

 

He was available in the Rule 5 draft last season - maybe even the last two years.

 

If there was any real chance of him doing so, he'd have been taken and given a shot.

[Gunned]

It's much more likely that Pierre returns to his .374 OBA of two seasons ago.

[jjgman21]

Scouts and professional baseball people say so.

 

 

isn't this where all the moneyballers jump in? who cares what the scouts say.

 

I'm sure scouts don't like him because he's a .260 singles hitter. I'll look when I get home, but I'm willing to bet that Pierre never had OBPs of .390+, .370+, .370+ when he was in the minor leagues.

 

one thing that generally never changes between levels of baseball is the ability of a hitter to tell the difference between a ball and strike. Bacon is a walk machine.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Scouts and professional baseball people say so.

 

 

isn't this where all the moneyballers jump in? who cares what the scouts say.

 

I'm sure scouts don't like him because he's a .260 singles hitter. I'll look when I get home, but I'm willing to bet that Pierre never had OBPs of .390+, .370+, .370+ when he was in the minor leagues.

 

one thing that generally never changes between levels of baseball is the ability of a hitter to tell the difference between a ball and strike. Bacon is a walk machine.

 

wrong

[LuvChicagoSports]

The thing that I don't get is that too many fans are wrapped up in slugging and home runs. They say they don't want a slap hitter because he isn't going to get home runs which gaurentee a run. Home runs are clearly not what the Cubs need because we have finished near the top of the league the past few years and it has gotten us nowhere as far as scoring runs is concerned. People that are down on Pierre are coming up with plenty of bad things to say about him, but I've got some good things about his speed that won't really have stats to back them up because such things aren't kept. Pierre get a single with one out, Furcal gets a single and because of his speed Pierre can go first to third, and then is in prime scoring position with less than two outs. Another thing his speed brings is the ability to score from first. I can't stand how people will argue that only speed matters if the sb% is good to great. Speed can make the defense change the way they play and pitch. Look at the White Sox as a prime example of this. I think the best thing that happened to Iguchi this season was that he had Scott Podsednik in front of him. Iguchi saw a lot of fastballs when Podsednik was on base which makes it easier to hit. No I'm not saying that is the only reason he put up the numbers that he did, but I am saying that it certainly could have helped. Speed is one of the elements of the game that can't really be completely kept track of. Going first to third and things like that are big components of baseball that often get overlooked. Stats guys are extremely important members of front offices, but sometimes stats can take away from what a player brings to a team.

[Warpticon]

The thing that I don't get is that too many fans are wrapped up in slugging and home runs. They say they don't want a slap hitter because he isn't going to get home runs which gaurentee a run. Home runs are clearly not what the Cubs need because we have finished near the top of the league the past few years and it has gotten us nowhere as far as scoring runs is concerned. People that are down on Pierre are coming up with plenty of bad things to say about him, but I've got some good things about his speed that won't really have stats to back them up because such things aren't kept. Pierre get a single with one out, Furcal gets a single and because of his speed Pierre can go first to third, and then is in prime scoring position with less than two outs. Another thing his speed brings is the ability to score from first. I can't stand how people will argue that only speed matters if the sb% is good to great. Speed can make the defense change the way they play and pitch. Look at the White Sox as a prime example of this. I think the best thing that happened to Iguchi this season was that he had Scott Podsednik in front of him. Iguchi saw a lot of fastballs when Podsednik was on base which makes it easier to hit. No I'm not saying that is the only reason he put up the numbers that he did, but I am saying that it certainly could have helped. Speed is one of the elements of the game that can't really be completely kept track of. Going first to third and things like that are big components of baseball that often get overlooked. Stats guys are extremely important members of front offices, but sometimes stats can take away from what a player brings to a team.

 

RE: the bolded part: Why couldn't it have been Furcal getting the single and then to third on somebody else's single? Pierre didn't really add anything to the equation in that scenario that couldn't be gotten elsewhere.

 

It had been gone over a few times that the White Sox scored less this year than they did last year. Going small-ball didn't help them score more, though it may have indeed helped Iguchi.

 

it's not so much not wanting a slap hitter. It's that if all you *do* is slap hit, then it takes a lot more to produce a run. You can talk about how nice it'll be to be able to go from first to third, but a lot of other hitters would've already been at second, third, or scored already in those situations. It benefits those cases, but those cases are not particularly numerous.