Venezuela Results

[CubinNY]

Thought this might be interesting and yet useless at the same time, but if you include all of Cedeno's hitting over the last two years, from the beginning of 2004, Spring Training, Double-A, Arizona Fall League, Spring Training, Triple-A, Majors and now Winter Ball (I don't think Ronny played Winter Ball last year, let me know if he did and I'll take it into account)...

 

.310/.361/.437 in 1053 PA

 

That is more than enough data to suggest to me that Cedeno can handle the job. He may not walk enough for us, but then again, who does?*

 

*Rhetorical question

[Diffusion]

By the way, I should point out that by Spring Training, I'm only including time with the major league team, because I can't find the numbers for the minor league spring training games. If you know where I can find them, again, let me know and I'll take them into account.

[anemic offense]

He's hit well for the past year.

 

ZiPS has him at

.287/ .332/ .412 in 345 ABs

 

which not-so-oddly resembles his '04 West Tenn line of

 

.279/ .328/ .401 in 384 ABs (when he started turning it on)

 

 

I wish the Cubs had more certainty at other positions to withstand Cedeno going through a slump, if he does. I'm a Cedeno believer, but expecting power production out of him is unrealistic.

 

If some sort of trade scenario results in the Cubs getting another shortstop and Ronny not being traded, I think there's zero chance he starts at 2B. UBlink is the authority here, but I don't think he's played 2B this winter ... when's the last time he's played it in the minors? Dusty isn't going to start playing him at 2B in spring training; Dusty doesn't think that's what spring training is for. I think any talk of him starting at 2B is pure B.S. because I do not believe Dusty would play him there.

 

The power shouldn't be expected, especially not right away, but I don't think its unrealistic to think it should develop. Ronny's extremely athletic, has improved exponentially with the bat, and has a frame that's conducive to adding some bulk. Personally, I think he'll have average to above average power for a MLB SS, though it remains to be seen.

[CoolHandLuke]

Any updates on Ronny's results from Venezuala? I'm sure that league has to be wrapping up shortly if not already.

[CubinNY]

I believe the league already wrapped up and Cedeno was named Rookie of the year if I am not mistaken.

[cubfan1954]

The league playoffs are going on now. Cedeno's team is in the finals, and Ronnie is batting third and hitting .500 for this series after hitting .339 for the round-robin and semi-finals

[Balsa]

The league playoffs are going on now. Cedeno's team is in the finals, and Ronnie is batting third and hitting .500 for this series after hitting .339 for the round-robin and semi-finals

 

:shock: :shock: :shock:

 

That's more than a little optimisim for next year.

[Diffusion]

Cedeno is hitting .356/.416/.485 in 275 plate appearances in Venezuela. That's the good news. The bad news is that most of that is driven by him hitting exactly .400 on balls in play: he's not walked much (just 16 times, his on-base percentage has been given a boost by 10 hit by pitches), and he's managed just 20 extra base hits, of which only 3 were home runs.

[Diffusion]

Cedeno is hitting .356/.416/.485 in 275 plate appearances in Venezuela. That's the good news. The bad news is that most of that is driven by him hitting exactly .400 on balls in play: he's not walked much (just 16 times, his on-base percentage has been given a boost by 10 hit by pitches), and he's managed just 20 extra base hits, of which only 3 were home runs.

 

I don't speak Spanish, and I don't know the Spanish terms for baseball statistics, so I didn't know what GP was. I considered that it was HBP, but I ruled out that possibility because, if it were, then GP when added to VB (which is at-bats), BB, SH and SF (all the same) ought to have equalled AL (which can't be anything besides plate appearances). In the Ronda Regular, that's not the case, because VB, BB, SH, SF and GP add up to 191, not AL, which is 198. I've now had a Spanish friend of mine confirm that AL is indeed Plate Appearances, but also that GP is HBP. So, unless Cedeno reached base seven times on defensive interference, the AL figure for the Ronda Regular is wrong, or, less likely, the BB, GP, SH and/or SF numbers are wrong, or, less likely still, SH and SF represent something else in Spanish.

 

Anyway, running with the assumption that the AL figure is wrong, then Cedeno's actual numbers in Venezuela are .356/.400/.485 in 268 plate appearances. He's only been hit by 3 pitches, everything else is as before (.400 average on balls in play, just 16 walks, 33 strikeouts, 20 extra-base hits, of which 3 home runs). He's also only stolen 2 bases, and was caught stealing once, and he's made 12 errors at shortstop. So I think Cedeno's winter, more than anything, underlines the limitations to his game: not that much power, not particularly adept at drawing walks, heavily reliant on the balls in play not finding the fielders, not as speedy as you'd maybe hope, perhaps a little prone to errors defensively.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like him, he only turns 23 next month, he's well above average defensively, he should hit for a handy average, he's got decent speed, I don't think him ever drawing walks is out of the question because there's nothing wrong with his pitch selection, he doesn't expand his zone much, he's not fooled by breaking stuff, it's just he likes to swing when he gets a pitch he can deal with, his bat should develop decent pop, doubles power at least, and he's still my Opening Day shortstop. Just, when someone says "did you know Cedeno hit .356 in Venezuela over the winter?", don't get too excited. I'm sticking with my prediction that a superb year for Cedeno on the 2006 Cubs would be hitting a reasonably empty .280/.330/.400 with defence. In other words, don't expect that he'll be any better than Neifi Perez this year. And he could easily be worse.

[anemic offense]

I agreed with what you said Diffusion, until I got to this part:

 

In other words, don't expect that he'll be any better than Neifi Perez this year. And he could easily be worse.

 

Although I readily admit I'm a Cedeno optimist, there is little reason to think he'll be anywhere near as bad as Neifi is. His AAA stint last year was impressive. He was better in his limited MLB time despite how Dusty played him. And now he has had a very impressive winter ball season, especially when considering he was coming off injury. Not to mention, he is already fundamentally superior to Neifi, even though he's only 23.

 

Not that Ronnie couldn't fall on his face, rather there is virtually no reason to think this would happen. Neifi isn't good enough to hold Ronnie's jock strap...and that's right now.

[Diffusion]

When I say that you shouldn't expect Cedeno to be any better than Neifi, that's not to say that Cedeno's not a good prospect, that he's not fundamentally better than Neifi right now, not to say that Neifi's any good, it's just to say that the transition from playing everyday for a full season in the minors to playing everyday for a full season in the majors is difficult for the best of prospects at the best of times.

 

Look for instance at BA's Top 20 Rookies list from last February, and how the vast majority of those hitting prospects, some of them better prospects than Cedeno, some of them with more impressive minor league track records, some of them coming off a better year, or a better showing in winter ball, some of them expected to be able to produce straight-away, and look at how they almost invariably struggled. Here are all the hitters that made the Top 20... (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/050224rookies.html)

 

Nick Swisher: .236/.322/.446

Dallas McPherson: .244/.295/.449

Jeremy Reed: .254/.322/.352

Chris Burke: .248/.309/.368

Jason Bartlett: .241/.316/.335

Garrett Atkins: .287/.347/.426 (Coors)

JJ Hardy: .247/.327/.384

Mark Teahen: .246/.309/.376

Clint Barmes: .289/.330/.434 (Coors)

Russ Adams: .256/.325/.383

Jason Dubois: .235/.292/.444

 

Those are some pretty unimpressive numbers. This doesn't mean that these players won't be useful major league players, or that they weren't good prospects in the first place. It just means that making the transition to the major leagues is difficult, and that that really needs to be appreciated. For most prospects struggling upon promotion to the bigs is something of a right of passage, something that almost needs to be gone through, and if you come out the other side you're all the stronger for it.

 

Players that just take to the majors like a duck to water are a very special breed. You say that there's not much reason to think Cedeno will flop at first. I see it otherwise: there's not much reason to think that, like most prospects, that he won't. It's possible that he won't. It's probably more likely though that he doesn't find it quite so easy. Cedeno actually doesn't have a lot of 2006 ceiling to spare before Neifi's .270/.300/.380 becomes relevant, especially if you take defence into account. That's not an insult to Cedeno, it's not being pessimistic or down on him, it's not a reason to consider not going with him as the Opening Day shortstop, it's not a reason to get him out of the lineup at the first opportunity, or the second or third (he should get a proper chance, and by that we're talking months not days), it's not a justification for playing Neifi, far from it, it's just the truth of the situation.

 

Which is why, when you insert a prospect, or two, into your lineup, you have to be fully prepared for them being truly awful. You can't rely on them. Expect the worst, hope for the best, and put as good a lineup around the rookie or rookies as you possibly can. The Cubs have failed miserably to do that this off-season with the Pierre and Jones acquisitions at the mediocrity auction.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Which is why, when you insert a prospect, or two, into your lineup, you have to be fully prepared for them being truly awful. You can't rely on them. Expect the worst, hope for the best, and put as good a lineup around the rookie or rookies as you possibly can. The Cubs have failed miserably to do that this off-season with the Pierre and Jones acquisitions at the mediocrity auction.

 

This is exactly why I wanted to get a SS, since replacing the entire OF with quality would be next to impossible. That also would've allowed Cedeno to slide into Neifi's role, eliminating his presence.

[Diffusion]

Which is why, when you insert a prospect, or two, into your lineup, you have to be fully prepared for them being truly awful. You can't rely on them. Expect the worst, hope for the best, and put as good a lineup around the rookie or rookies as you possibly can. The Cubs have failed miserably to do that this off-season with the Pierre and Jones acquisitions at the mediocrity auction.

 

This is exactly why I wanted to get a SS, since replacing the entire OF with quality would be next to impossible. That also would've allowed Cedeno to slide into Neifi's role, eliminating his presence.

 

Fair enough. Personally I'd have preferred adding the best possible CF and RF we could possibly get our hands on, entrusting LF and SS to Murton and Cedeno respectively, Lee and Ramirez, obviously, and then round things out with Barrett and Walker. I don't really see the point of blocking Cedeno: in the long-run he's got the makings of a very decent shortstop, he'll have to go through the transition period at some point, and he's probably as ready for that now as he'll ever be.

[Balsa]

I just hope we find a decent backup to Murton.

 

If you're right, and we can expect them to struggle, we'll need strong backups in case. As a backup Neifi isn't bad for Cedeno, given that he's batted lower in the batting order. Right now on the depth chart the backup to Murton is Angel Pagan. Who I am very leery of.

[anemic offense]

posted by Diffusion:

Which is why, when you insert a prospect, or two, into your lineup, you have to be fully prepared for them being truly awful. You can't rely on them. Expect the worst, hope for the best, and put as good a lineup around the rookie or rookies as you possibly can. The Cubs have failed miserably to do that this off-season with the Pierre and Jones acquisitions at the mediocrity auction.

 

I agree with this, to a large degree. You just can't assume ANY prospect is going to step in and be good right away. IMO, the difference here is that both of our players (Murton and Cedeno) have had very impressive (not superb, rather encouraging) partial seasons in MLB ball albeit under difficutl circumstances. Not that they can't or won't regress, it's just that they've given us little reason to think that would happen (to a disasterful extent). I think this is particularly true with Ronny, with there being almost NO WAY he could be as bad as Neifi.

 

It's all arbitrary I guess, and how one would define a bad season. For Ronny (IMO) that would be performing at an offensive level only SlIGHTLY ahead of Neifi. If he ends up being equal, that would constitute a COMPLETE DISASTER. Then I'd have to slit my wrists.

[Diffusion]

Not that they can't or won't regress, it's just that they've given us little reason to think that would happen (to a disasterful extent). I think this is particularly true with Ronny, with there being almost NO WAY he could be as bad as Neifi.

 

I just can't possibly agree with that. Ronny Cedeno is a prospect, therefore it's possible. More precisely, he's a prospect whose long-term ceiling with the bat is probably no more than .300/.350/.450. It's going to take him a while to be able to post those kind of numbers. His short-term ceiling is probably closer to .290/.330/.400. But few prospects, particularly young prospects, are able to make a smooth transition to the major leagues, living up to any kind of ceiling straight away. If Cedeno is one of the few, excellent. If not, he's got Neifi's .270/.300/.380 in his rear view mirror, and Neifi at this point probably plays the more reliable defence. I don't know how, at this point, you can say which he is. This numbers certainly don't lend themselves to putting him in the few prospects category - he's far too batting average on balls in play driven, it represents a dangerously large portion of his game right now.

 

The fact that Cedeno had an okay 89 plate appearances in the majors last year almost certainly will have little bearing on whether or not he succeeds or fails this year. For starters, it's 89 plate appearances. When every single hit is worth nearly 12 points of average, when getting hit by a pitch boosts your on-base percentage by over 10 points, when an extra home run would mean 50 points more slugging, and so on, numbers are pretty meaningless. Yes, certainly, beyond the numbers Cedeno still looked pretty good, a few defensive mistakes aside, but what does that really mean? He was confident, in a groove, he'd been torching Triple-A, so on. What if he gets into a slump? We haven't seen that Cedeno yet. And until we see that Cedeno, it's impossible to say what he can and he can't do at the major league level. So for now the safest thing to assume is that he can indeed be as bad as Neifi, if not worse, and plan for that happening, which anything better from Cedeno being a bonus.

[UBlink]

I don't really see the point of blocking Cedeno: in the long-run he's got the makings of a very decent shortstop, he'll have to go through the transition period at some point, and he's probably as ready for that now as he'll ever be.

 

The bolded part of the quote is the best summary of this whole issue. Answer 2 questions - 1) From all we can tell, is the player eventually a major league player? If yes, then ask question 2, would his odds of making the transition be increased by additional minor league play? If no, then you have to make a commitment to getting him through the transition period, with realistic expectations of the associated difficulties. Even if the transition struggles produce sub-Neifi results, it's an investment worth making. The transition period needs to be thought of in investment terms - unavoidable short term pain for a possibility (there's no guarantees) of long term gain.

[Diffusion]

I don't really see the point of blocking Cedeno: in the long-run he's got the makings of a very decent shortstop, he'll have to go through the transition period at some point, and he's probably as ready for that now as he'll ever be.

 

The bolded part of the quote is the best summary of this whole issue. Answer 2 questions - 1) From all we can tell, is the player eventually a major league player? If yes, then ask question 2, would his odds of making the transition be increased by additional minor league play? If no, then you have to make a commitment to getting him through the transition period, with realistic expectations of the associated difficulties. Even if the transition struggles produce sub-Neifi results, it's an investment worth making. The transition period needs to be thought of in investment terms - unavoidable short term pain for a possibility (there's no guarantees) of long term gain.

 

Exactly. Very well put. That's why I personally don't expect Cedeno will be much better than Neifi this year, if at all, and yet at the same time I want the Cubs to play the youngster everyday at the major league level.

 

Of course, an interesting third question is, how long do you give a young player before you tire of any struggles? Look how long it took some of the current position players on the Cubs' roster to become major league hitters...

 

Derrek Lee hit just .227/.305/.384 through his first 812 plate appearances (aged 21-23)

 

Aramis Ramirez hit .239/.290/.364 through his first 613 plate appearances (aged 20-22)

 

Todd Walker hit just .244/.286/.345 through his first 260 plate appearances (aged 23-24)

 

All were considered top prospects, with Ramirez and Walker once ranked by Baseball America as the 5th and 7th best prospects in the game, Lee topping out at 15th.