DLee Repeating Success(Article)

[jtownie]

Not sure how many of you read this blog but the latest discussion on DLee looks at his chances of repeating. I found it very interesting and a way I hadn't looked at the numbers previously.

 

 

http://cubtown.baseballtoaster.com/archives/283345.html

[TB_11]

Great post/article. A good summary of what went well for Derrek this year, and what went wrong for the lineup in front of him.

[jtownie]

Great post/article. A good summary of what went well for Derrek this year, and what went wrong for the lineup in front of him.

 

Thanks! The most interesting part to me was that they found a positive explanation for the increase in the BABIP; that they weren't just bloop singles but that most of the increase in hits were actually XBH; to which the idea that a mechanical flaw was corrected rather than attributing the season to being an anomaly.

Granted, DLee will probably never have another season like 2005 but the article does give some stats that point to DLee at least having a good chance at repeating numbers that are somewhat close to 2005 rather than a complete regression back to his career norms.

[Backtobanks]

I've been posting on all of those "trade Lee while his value is high" threads that I thought that the idea of trading him was crazy. They insisted that he probably would regress to his career norms, but I thought that he has corrected a flaw in his batting style and wouldn't necessarily regress. Of course, I happen to think that Lee is such a "class" guy that the Cubs shouldn't replace him even at his career average.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Lee may have closed a hole in his swing causing those extra BABIP hits to go for extra bases, but to me that only means his regression could be even harder. Besides, his BABIP was 20 points luckier than it should have been even with his LD%, which isn't guaranteed to carry over. I really think we have a great opportunity to get a great haul for him while his value is highest, but I certainly won't weep if we hang on to him.

[sonofsamiam]

Lee may have closed a hole in his swing causing those extra BABIP hits to go for extra bases, but to me that only means his regression could be even harder. Besides, his BABIP was 20 points luckier than it should have been even with his LD%, which isn't guaranteed to carry over. I really think we have a great opportunity to get a great haul for him while his value is highest, but I certainly won't weep if we hang on to him.

 

The thing is, if you give any credence to Win Shares, Lee was a pretty valuable player even before he became a Cub. He led the '03 Marlins in Win Shares, for example. This is why I was much more pleased about the Choi/Lee trade than many. (And yes, I should probably change my avatar when talking about him.)

[SouthSideRyan]

Lee may have closed a hole in his swing causing those extra BABIP hits to go for extra bases, but to me that only means his regression could be even harder.

 

I don't follow that at all. Can you explain? Unless you think his hole in his swing will open back up that doesn't make sense to me.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Lee may have closed a hole in his swing causing those extra BABIP hits to go for extra bases, but to me that only means his regression could be even harder.

 

I don't follow that at all. Can you explain? Unless you think his hole in his swing will open back up that doesn't make sense to me.

 

My interpretation is that his improvements caused him to make better contact, therefore more singles turned into doubles. However, fixing his swing doesn't change the fact that he got more hits than he should have(his BABIP as well as in conjunction with his LD% show this). Since more of those "lucky" hits were for extra bases, his numbers will fall more precipitously when those aren't there next year, which I believe will be the case.

[Backtobanks]

Lee may have closed a hole in his swing causing those extra BABIP hits to go for extra bases, but to me that only means his regression could be even harder.

 

I don't follow that at all. Can you explain? Unless you think his hole in his swing will open back up that doesn't make sense to me.

 

My interpretation is that his improvements caused him to make better contact, therefore more singles turned into doubles. However, fixing his swing doesn't change the fact that he got more hits than he should have(his BABIP as well as in conjunction with his LD% show this). Since more of those "lucky" hits were for extra bases, his numbers will fall more precipitously when those aren't there next year, which I believe will be the case.

 

I don't understand all of these new statistics, but I do understand that by fixing the hole in his swing he got way more hits and extra base hits. I don't think that the whole is coming back, so I don't understand why there should be this horrible regression. I guess the only way to find out is to see what kind of results he has this year. I suppose some of these statistics can be accurate, but I don't believe statistics can predict everything.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Lee may have closed a hole in his swing causing those extra BABIP hits to go for extra bases, but to me that only means his regression could be even harder. Besides, his BABIP was 20 points luckier than it should have been even with his LD%, which isn't guaranteed to carry over. I really think we have a great opportunity to get a great haul for him while his value is highest, but I certainly won't weep if we hang on to him.

 

The thing is, if you give any credence to Win Shares, Lee was a pretty valuable player even before he became a Cub. He led the '03 Marlins in Win Shares, for example. This is why I was much more pleased about the Choi/Lee trade than many. (And yes, I should probably change my avatar when talking about him.)

 

Exactly. When we traded for Lee, everyone looked at his Marlins numbers and was rightly excited. A typical Lee year was .280/.370/.500+ with 30-35 HR and 90 RBI, 20 SBs and Gold Glove defense. If he "regresses" to that level of production, we have no reason not to be very very pleased. 2005-ish production is just a bonus.

 

I would like Hee Seop back for my bench though. No one has talked about our pathetic, putrid bench all off-season, and it needs some serious work. Other than (maybe) JHJ, I don't see who will be filling our bench for 2006. It sure would be nice late in ballgames to have an option like Hee Seop for PH, instead of a deadbeat like Gremlin.

[imb]

im not sure i want a guy on our short bench that can only back up first base.

[CuseCubFan69]

Lee may have closed a hole in his swing causing those extra BABIP hits to go for extra bases, but to me that only means his regression could be even harder. Besides, his BABIP was 20 points luckier than it should have been even with his LD%, which isn't guaranteed to carry over. I really think we have a great opportunity to get a great haul for him while his value is highest, but I certainly won't weep if we hang on to him.

 

The thing is, if you give any credence to Win Shares, Lee was a pretty valuable player even before he became a Cub. He led the '03 Marlins in Win Shares, for example. This is why I was much more pleased about the Choi/Lee trade than many. (And yes, I should probably change my avatar when talking about him.)

 

Exactly. When we traded for Lee, everyone looked at his Marlins numbers and was rightly excited. A typical Lee year was .280/.370/.500+ with 30-35 HR and 90 RBI, 20 SBs and Gold Glove defense. If he "regresses" to that level of production, we have no reason not to be very very pleased. 2005-ish production is just a bonus.

 

I would like Hee Seop back for my bench though. No one has talked about our pathetic, putrid bench all off-season, and it needs some serious work. Other than (maybe) JHJ, I don't see who will be filling our bench for 2006. It sure would be nice late in ballgames to have an option like Hee Seop for PH, instead of a deadbeat like Gremlin.

 

Did Choi play any OF for the Dodgers?

[Peoriaman]

I never want to see Choi or the Gremlin here again.