Wanted: Starters with >200 IPs and <4.24 ERA

[HoopsCubs]

A few weeks ago, I initiated a thread on evaluating unrestricted free agent starting pitchers since Jim Hendry had made mention earlier in the month to being in the market for an "innings-eating" starter this offseason.

 

In that last thread we discussed the 10 best free agents (arguably): AJ Burnett, Paul Byrd, Roger Clemens, Esteban Loaiza, Kevin Millwood, Matt Morris, Jamie Moyer, Kenny Rogers, Jarrod Washburn and Jeff Weaver.

 

We had a spirited discussion with the consensus focus on Burnett and Millwood, and with others suggesting that Byrd and Loaiza could be value picks.

 

Today, let's focus on guys under contract, who might be available.

 

For the first grouping, I will focus on players, who pitched a minimum of 200 innings in 2005, who had ERAs less than Greg Maddux's 4.24, and who are coming into the final year of a contract or to first time free agency:

 

Mark Buehrle (team option in '07)

John Smoltz (team option in '07)

Barry Zito

Jon Garland

Tom Glavine

Jason Marquis

Mark Mulder

Jose Contreras

Brad Radke

 

Would there be an equitable match here for the Cubs and a trading team?

Hendry had mentioned Radke as a target 2 years ago before he re-upped with Minnesota. I have always felt Zito would be a good fit especially with Maddux and Wood potentially free agents after 2006. What about re-uniting Glavine or Smoltz with Maddux for 1 year?

 

For the 2nd grouping, I will list out players who have the performance listed above, but who are at least 2 years away from free agency, but whose names have been prominent in trade rumours lately because of money or chemistry:

 

Livan Hernandez

Derek Lowe

Jon Lieber

 

Hernandez is always popular to discuss here.

 

Anyone see any fits here?

 

 

Enjoy!

Hoops

[USSoccer]

Of that list, only Lowe, Zito and possibly Hernandez appeal to me, but I'm not sure we'd be able to give Oakland anything they'd want for Zito.

 

Maybe Hill, Mitre and Sing? I don't think that would be enough, though...maybe I should stop typing streamm of consciousness

[ZMovieman]

Of that list, only Lowe, Zito and possibly Hernandez appeal to me, but I'm not sure we'd be able to give Oakland anything they'd want for Zito.

 

Maybe Hill, Mitre and Sing? I don't think that would be enough, though...maybe I should stop typing streamm of consciousness

 

I think it's a given that any deal for Zito includes Hill. In essence, Oakland would be getting a younger unproven Zito (aka cheaper). What else could be added, I don't know.

[Tim]

I think any deal for Zito would have to include Murton. Not only is he a perfect Oakland-type player, but he also plays their biggest positional need.

[HoopsCubs]

Of that list, only Lowe, Zito and possibly Hernandez appeal to me, but I'm not sure we'd be able to give Oakland anything they'd want for Zito.

 

Maybe Hill, Mitre and Sing? I don't think that would be enough, though...maybe I should stop typing streamm of consciousness

 

If I'm recalling the trades properly:

 

Oakland traded Tim Hudson for Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas. Then, they traded Mark Mulder for Danny Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton.

 

If Beane is consistent, ask yourself how does Rich Hill compare to Meyer and Haren; how does Sergio Mitre compare to Cruz and Calero; how does Brandon Sing compare to Thomas and Barton?

 

I like Zito a lot too, but I would have questions about his post-season mental toughness - Hudson and Mulder didn't look great in October.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Of that list, only Lowe, Zito and possibly Hernandez appeal to me, but I'm not sure we'd be able to give Oakland anything they'd want for Zito.

 

Maybe Hill, Mitre and Sing? I don't think that would be enough, though...maybe I should stop typing streamm of consciousness

 

If I'm recalling the trades properly:

 

Oakland traded Tim Hudson for Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas. Then, they traded Mark Mulder for Danny Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton.

 

If Beane is consistent, ask yourself how does Rich Hill compare to Meyer and Haren; how does Sergio Mitre compare to Cruz and Calero; how does Brandon Sing compare to Thomas and Barton?

 

I like Zito a lot too, but I would have questions about his post-season mental toughness - Hudson and Mulder didn't look great in October.

 

I don't think Hill, Mitre, and Sing compare favorably. They have similarities, but I think the three guys we would offer each fall a little below what Oakland received in the other deals, especially when you consider the value those players were perceived to have last fall.

[USSoccer]

Of that list, only Lowe, Zito and possibly Hernandez appeal to me, but I'm not sure we'd be able to give Oakland anything they'd want for Zito.

 

Maybe Hill, Mitre and Sing? I don't think that would be enough, though...maybe I should stop typing streamm of consciousness

 

If I'm recalling the trades properly:

 

Oakland traded Tim Hudson for Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas. Then, they traded Mark Mulder for Danny Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton.

 

If Beane is consistent, ask yourself how does Rich Hill compare to Meyer and Haren; how does Sergio Mitre compare to Cruz and Calero; how does Brandon Sing compare to Thomas and Barton?

 

I like Zito a lot too, but I would have questions about his post-season mental toughness - Hudson and Mulder didn't look great in October.

 

I don't think Hill, Mitre, and Sing compare favorably. They have similarities, but I think the three guys we would offer each fall a little below what Oakland received in the other deals, especially when you consider the value those players were perceived to have last fall.

 

Yeah, I agree. Of the three players, Mitre bears the most similarities between Cruz and Calero, but it's still not an equal comparison.

 

And I think Tim is right; we'd have to give Oakland Murton. So it would maybe end up being Nolasco, Murton and Hill, and I don't like Zito that much.

 

I would rather spend the money on Millwood than give up Murton. He's the one player I don't know that I'd give up in any trade that wasn't a bona fide IMPACT trade.

[JeffH]

Lowe is an obvious target. There's the affair business. DePodesta signed him to a backloaded contract, got the cheapest and youngest year out of him, and now trades him to the awash-with-money Cubs. That's right out of the Moneyball playbook.

 

He doesn't quite meet your ERA standard, but he'd be an AL guy moving to the NL, so maybe we could overlook it. Bronson Arroyo.

 

Doesn't meet either of your criteria, but somebody in another thread mentioned Jason Jennings.

 

Also doesn't meet either of your criteria, but our AAAA club will probably make Kip Wells and Mark Redman available.

 

Please note that I'm not advocating any of these guys.

 

Spend the money on offense!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Please note that I'm not advocating any of these guys.

 

Spend the money on offense!

 

Seriously. If getting Lowe means that we get Bradley too, then that's alright. But I don't see a reason to target starting pitching on its own, especially high cost guys like Lowe, Zito, etc.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

You don't think a package with Corey, Hill, and Nolasco/Pinto/Mitre plus cash gets it done for Zito?

 

Granted I know Corey's value is low, but Oakland has to know in a system like they have with the ability to get the most out of young players with a load of talent they could make him succeed in a big way.

[UK1679666180]

Oddly, I can see Williams putting up 200IP and an ERA just slightly over 4.00 at a fraction of the cost.

[stitchface]

I like Zito a lot too, but I would have questions about his post-season mental toughness - Hudson and Mulder didn't look great in October.

 

Apparently you haven't watched him in the playoffs? Remember Game Four in Yankee Stadium with the A's down 2-1? hmm. In any case, I would worry about getting to the playoffs before I worry about playoff "mental toughness." Wasn't Bonds lacking that as well? How about Vlad?

 

I don't see any way Oakland trade for TLong part II.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

You don't think a package with Corey, Hill, and Nolasco/Pinto/Mitre plus cash gets it done for Zito?

 

Granted I know Corey's value is low, but Oakland has to know in a system like they have with the ability to get the most out of young players with a load of talent they could make him succeed in a big way.

 

I don't think that deal comes close to getting it done.

 

If Zito comes this way, Beane is going to want Hill or another pitching prospect that he might value. He'll demand Murton and then want another prospect.

[stitchface]

Hill and Pinto, Murton and probably another hitter or perhaps Welly or Wuertz.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

You don't think a package with Corey, Hill, and Nolasco/Pinto/Mitre plus cash gets it done for Zito?

 

Granted I know Corey's value is low, but Oakland has to know in a system like they have with the ability to get the most out of young players with a load of talent they could make him succeed in a big way.

 

I don't think that deal comes close to getting it done.

 

If Zito comes this way, Beane is going to want Hill or another pitching prospect that he might value. He'll demand Murton and then want another prospect.

Then he can take his moneyball and shove it. That's LaMarr-esque negotiating there.