Final Pitcher Abuse Points For 2005

[CardsFanInChiTown]

While on baseball prospectus I checked out the final Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) Report for 05. For anyone who doesn't know PAP is a way to measure pitcher workloads and abuse. Anyway, it comes at no surprise that Livan Hernandez was number one by a huge margin. I wasn't shocked to see Carlos Zambrano at number 2. I was however flabbergasted to see Mark Prior at number 3 considering the guy didn't even pitch for a good part of the year. In short - Dusty is killing your young guns...

 

 

Here's the report:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=25

 

 

Wanna learn more about PAP?

 

1: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1477

 

2: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1480

 

3: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=666

[Tim]

Considering the lack of a DH, does it surprise anyone else to see the top of the list flat out dominated by NL pitchers? I would think they'd be more subject to getting pulled early for pinch hitters.

 

Odd.

 

Oh yeah, this is where I have always had a real problem with Dusty. I think I may have mentioned it once or twice around here. ;)

[Bote McBoteface]

Wow...

 

It takes alot of talent in the art of ruining pitchers to have a guy who missed alot of time actually crack the top 3 in PAP. Congrats to Dusty.

[UK1679666180]

The most frustrating part about it is that he'll rack up high pitch totals in games that have been decided.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

PAP is basically worthless.

 

Cubing the difference between the number of pitches thrown (after reaching 100) and 100 is ridiculous.

 

That's saying it is 27 times worse to throw 115 pitches than it is to throw 105 pitches. Ridiculous.

 

I'm not saying that you can't determine pitcher abuse with statistics, but if you are not looking at the right numbers, you're basically wasting your time.

 

Factors that need to be considered when determining pitcher abuse: total pitches thrown (worthless if used by itself), pitches thrown per inning, pitches thrown per K and per BB, wild pitches, velocity changes over an inning/game, gameday temperature and weather, etc.

 

There is no way PAP is anything more than a thrown together stat that people accepted just b/c there are a few injury prone guys at the top of the list.

 

Prior and Wood are abused, but that comes more from the distribution of their pitches over the course of the game rather than the total number of pitches they throw. Throwing (pitches by inning) 35, 15, 15, 15, 10, 15 and throwing 10,10,10,15,10,15,10,15,10 both have the same PAP. What do you think is worse on a pitchers' arm?

[USSoccer]

The most frustrating part about it is that he'll rack up high pitch totals in games that have been decided.

 

One could argue that that very decision in Game 2 of 2003 cost us Game 6.

 

And this needs to stop before Dusty wrecks the best 2 arms ever to come out of our system.

[UK1679666180]

Just look at the 1st start by Zambrabo this year, he went 106 pitches.

 

106 pitches doesn't sound too bad.

 

Unfort., he did that in under 5IP and the Cubs had a 10 run lead and went onto win 16-6 in his 1st start of the year.

[USSoccer]

Just look at the 1st start by Zambrabo this year, he went 106 pitches.

 

106 pitches doesn't sound too bad.

 

Unfort., he did that in under 5IP and the Cubs had a 10 run lead and went onto win 16-6 in his 1st start of the year.

 

What about the 139 pitch complete game effort against the Phillies? In May.

 

139 pitches in May.

 

That's only surpassed by the 152 pitch death march Baker had Wood throw against St Louis in May of 2003.

 

*edit*

 

It was actually 141 pitches. In 7 innings. So in a way, that's even worse than 152 in 9. That way being, in reality.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

 

That's saying it is 27 times worse to throw 115 pitches than it is to throw 105 pitches. Ridiculous.

 

 

 

Why? Why can't each pitch become much worse and worse?

 

 

 

 

Factors that need to be considered when determining pitcher abuse: total pitches thrown (worthless if used by itself), pitches thrown per inning, pitches thrown per K and per BB, wild pitches, velocity changes over an inning/game, gameday temperature and weather, etc.

 

There is no way PAP is anything more than a thrown together stat that people accepted just b/c there are a few injury prone guys at the top of the list.

 

Prior and Wood are abused, but that comes more from the distribution of their pitches over the course of the game rather than the total number of pitches they throw. Throwing (pitches by inning) 35, 15, 15, 15, 10, 15 and throwing 10,10,10,15,10,15,10,15,10 both have the same PAP. What do you think is worse on a pitchers' arm?

 

 

 

Have you read any data that suggests this is true? If so, i would be interested to see it. I don't think PAP takes in account for everything however it is interesting stat - particularly for young pitchers.

[Outshined_One]

What about the 139 pitch complete game effort against the Phillies? In May.

 

139 pitches in May.

 

That game broke an agonizing losing streak in which the bullpen was completely shot. I saw that one as justifiable because, at the time, the Cubs needed a big shot in the arm and that CG win was absolutely huge. They needed to break that losing streak if they wanted any chance at actually competing for the WC/Division.

 

Of course, that turned out to be a completely moot point. Everything looks completely obvious in hindsight, ya know?

 

That said, there were plenty of other instances in which I was incredibly pissed off at Dusty for overworking the arms.

[USSoccer]

What about the 139 pitch complete game effort against the Phillies? In May.

 

139 pitches in May.

 

That game broke an agonizing losing streak in which the bullpen was completely shot. I saw that one as justifiable because, at the time, the Cubs needed a big shot in the arm and that CG win was absolutely huge. They needed to break that losing streak if they wanted any chance at actually competing for the WC/Division.

 

Of course, that turned out to be a completely moot point. Everything looks completely obvious in hindsight, ya know?

 

That said, there were plenty of other instances in which I was incredibly pissed off at Dusty for overworking the arms.

 

I don't know. I was at that game, and I think you could have gone to Dempster in the 9th, when it was clear that Z was done after the 8th.

 

Who knows, though. Z has been very durable so far *knocks on desk*

[Fred Hornkohl]

What about the 139 pitch complete game effort against the Phillies? In May.

 

139 pitches in May.

 

That game broke an agonizing losing streak in which the bullpen was completely shot. I saw that one as justifiable because, at the time, the Cubs needed a big shot in the arm and that CG win was absolutely huge. They needed to break that losing streak if they wanted any chance at actually competing for the WC/Division.

 

Of course, that turned out to be a completely moot point. Everything looks completely obvious in hindsight, ya know?

 

That said, there were plenty of other instances in which I was incredibly pissed off at Dusty for overworking the arms.

 

I don't know. I was at that game, and I think you could have gone to Dempster in the 9th, when it was clear that Z was done after the 8th.

 

Who knows, though. Z has been very durable so far *knocks on desk*

 

I had Zambrano's pitch count for that day (08 May) at 136 (from ESPN) rather than 139. Not a big deal.

 

Dempster was probably not available for relief duty on that particular day. He had just made his last start 4 days earlier (04 May), and didn't make his first appearance out of the pen (10 May) until 2 days after this game.

[stitchface]

Have you read any data that suggests this is true? If so, i would be interested to see it. I don't think PAP takes in account for everything however it is interesting stat - particularly for young pitchers.

 

As far as I know, there is no data correlating PAP with anything either so this is sort of a moot point. There are no must win games in May and no excuse for abusing Wood or Zambrano that way. You may win that game but it could easily cost you 5 wins down the road.

[USSoccer]

What about the 139 pitch complete game effort against the Phillies? In May.

 

139 pitches in May.

 

That game broke an agonizing losing streak in which the bullpen was completely shot. I saw that one as justifiable because, at the time, the Cubs needed a big shot in the arm and that CG win was absolutely huge. They needed to break that losing streak if they wanted any chance at actually competing for the WC/Division.

 

Of course, that turned out to be a completely moot point. Everything looks completely obvious in hindsight, ya know?

 

That said, there were plenty of other instances in which I was incredibly pissed off at Dusty for overworking the arms.

 

I don't know. I was at that game, and I think you could have gone to Dempster in the 9th, when it was clear that Z was done after the 8th.

 

Who knows, though. Z has been very durable so far *knocks on desk*

 

I had Zambrano's pitch count for that day (08 May) at 136 (from ESPN) rather than 139. Not a big deal.

 

Dempster was probably not available for relief duty on that particular day. He had just made his last start 4 days earlier (04 May), and didn't make his first appearance out of the pen (10 May) until 2 days after this game.

 

He was warming up in the pen during the bottom of the 8th. I have to believe he was ready to come in had any more runners reached in the 9th.

 

I think the point, though, is that Dusty, Pole, Rothschild or Hendry need to take better care of these arms. Prior and Z are the 2 of the 4 players we can not afford to lose long term if we have any designs on contention. That means paying attention to pitch counts, and especially not allowing our pitchers to throw high PC games in blowouts (The philly game wasn't close, but there are numerous examples of this)

[Careless]

PAP is basically worthless.

 

Cubing the difference between the number of pitches thrown (after reaching 100) and 100 is ridiculous.

 

That's saying it is 27 times worse to throw 115 pitches than it is to throw 105 pitches. Ridiculous.

 

I'm not saying that you can't determine pitcher abuse with statistics, but if you are not looking at the right numbers, you're basically wasting your time.

 

Factors that need to be considered when determining pitcher abuse: total pitches thrown (worthless if used by itself), pitches thrown per inning, pitches thrown per K and per BB, wild pitches, velocity changes over an inning/game, gameday temperature and weather, etc.

 

There is no way PAP is anything more than a thrown together stat that people accepted just b/c there are a few injury prone guys at the top of the list.

 

Prior and Wood are abused, but that comes more from the distribution of their pitches over the course of the game rather than the total number of pitches they throw. Throwing (pitches by inning) 35, 15, 15, 15, 10, 15 and throwing 10,10,10,15,10,15,10,15,10 both have the same PAP. What do you think is worse on a pitchers' arm?

Take a piece of metal. Bend it enough (say, 20 times) and it will wear and then break. Now let's say this piece of metal is self-repairing (like, say, your arm). Bend it 20 times in 5 minutes and it still breaks. Bend it 10 times one day, 10 times 5 days later, and it hasn't broken. Maybe it can heal that much in 5 days. Bend it 11 times per 5 days and in a few months you've got a broken piece of metal. If the season is only 2 months long, you're still probably ok. Bend it 13 times per 5 days and in just over 1 month you've broken it.

[dalgreen]

I don't like pitchers throwing high pitch counts early in the season. But why do some people seem to get caught up in this stat? Pitching is probably the most abnormal motion an arm can make. I mean are some of you basically saying well let's get 5-6 years out of a guy then it's okay if he has arm problems? Maybe it's all in the make-up of a guy's arm? Zambrano, thankfully, hasn't had a problem with his arm directly caused by pitching (who would've thought staying on the internet would cause arm problems?) yet, but let's say he has a problem next year. If Baker saves 100 pitches a year from him, can anyone guarantee that he wouldn't have a problem? I think of a guy like Jon Lieber, who had no problem going 8 or 9 innings while only throwing 89 -95 pitches and he got hurt. I just think there's more to arm problems than the number of pitches thrown. Maybe it's the make-up of the arm? Maybe it has something to do with your arm activity before the age of 18? I don't know. But I'm amazed that Matt Clement, who throws a whole lot of sliders hasn't had arm problems yet. I also think Prior and Zambrano could help themselves out, too, if they could wipe a guy out when having them behind 1-2, instead of having to toss seven more pitches just to get the strikeout.

[LoneStarCubFan]

Two of the top three. Atta boy Dusty, you lead the league in something.

 

Five of the top 30 are or were property of the Cubs. Z, Prior, Willis, Garland and Moyer.

[Careless]

I don't like pitchers throwing high pitch counts early in the season. But why do some people seem to get caught up in this stat? Pitching is probably the most abnormal motion an arm can make. I mean are some of you basically saying well let's get 5-6 years out of a guy then it's okay if he has arm problems? Maybe it's all in the make-up of a guy's arm? Zambrano, thankfully, hasn't had a problem with his arm directly caused by pitching (who would've thought staying on the internet would cause arm problems?) yet, but let's say he has a problem next year. If Baker saves 100 pitches a year from him, can anyone guarantee that he wouldn't have a problem? I think of a guy like Jon Lieber, who had no problem going 8 or 9 innings while only throwing 89 -95 pitches and he got hurt. I just think there's more to arm problems than the number of pitches thrown. Maybe it's the make-up of the arm? Maybe it has something to do with your arm activity before the age of 18? I don't know. But I'm amazed that Matt Clement, who throws a whole lot of sliders hasn't had arm problems yet. I also think Prior and Zambrano could help themselves out, too, if they could wipe a guy out when having them behind 1-2, instead of having to toss seven more pitches just to get the strikeout.

I don't think anyone here thinks that it's a bad idea for a manager to have livan throw more pitches than other pitchers. I don't think anyone here thinks that it's a bad idea to have zambrano throw more than maddux. I don't think anyone would disagree that different people have different arms, different capacities for throwing, and different stress points.

But I think there's some merit to the idea. The problem with implementing it as a useful stat is figuring out which pitchers deviate from the median, and to what degree. And how do you do that without letting them throw their arm in half in the first place?