Clemens,Carpenter, or Willis for Cy Young? (edit)

[jaydee]

Clemens is having an unbelievable year but if the rolls were reversed would Carp even be mentioned as a Cy Young Candidate? If Clemens had the 17 wins, second lowest ERA, more strikeouts, less walks, and more innings (7.5 innings per start), than he would have been given the award already.

 

If Carp had the great ERA, won only 11 games, and only averaged 6.8 innings per start, he would be severly criticized for being the benefactor of not going deep in games. The logical argument would be that he would a higher ERA if he went deeper in games. I highly doubt Carp would even be close in the Cy Young vote.

 

As it stands now, if Clemens wins the Cy Young, it would be a joke because RJ had the better stats last year and lost to Clemens because of wins. It would appear as if the media changes criteria to favor a higher profile pitcher.

 

If anyone had a 1.32 era , they would be talked about as a Cy Young candidate. And the national media loves the cardinals, so it is not like Clemens has the entire media behind him.

[jaydee]

By the way, Gibson wasn't "taking hitters off" very often. He averaged 130 pitches per game that year. AVERAGED!!

 

Clemens wouldn't DREAM of throwing that many pitches in even ONE GAME.

 

If Clemens had done what Gibson did, he wouldn't have lasted to the All-Star break.

 

I am willing to bet you any amount of money that Gibson could relax when the bottom 1/3 of his order came around in his day.

[K-Town]

By the way, Gibson wasn't "taking hitters off" very often. He averaged 130 pitches per game that year. AVERAGED!!

 

Clemens wouldn't DREAM of throwing that many pitches in even ONE GAME.

 

If Clemens had done what Gibson did, he wouldn't have lasted to the All-Star break.

 

I am willing to bet you any amount of money that Gibson could relax when the bottom 1/3 of his order came around in his day.

 

Well, we're really only talking about the 7 & 8 hitters, because the 9 hitter is the pitcher.

 

Let's assume, for arguments' sake, that he COMPLETELY took off the 7 and 8 hitters, and they batted 4 times every game. That's 8 hitters per game that he "took off" (I'm not even sure what that means, but let's say that he only used 1/2 energy to get those 2 guys out........... in other words, he could get them out on 2 pitches, instead of the typical 4 pitches).

 

If the 7 & 8 hitters bat 4 times per game, and Gibson is "gaining" 2 pitches per at-bat on them, then that's a total of 16 pitches that he's "taking off". He's STILL averaging 114 pitches per game. Clemens has only hit that number 4 times all year. Gibson AVERAGED that, even after "taking hitters off" (which I don't necessarily buy into).

[K-Town]

Here's another interesting quirk on Clemens.

 

He's only gone into the 8th inning 3 times this year.

 

On May 14, he went 8 innings against the Giants. His next start was one of his worst of the year (giving up 3 runs against Arizona, on May 19).

 

 

On May 30, he went 8 innings against Cincinnati. Again, his next start was one of his worst of the year (gave up 4 runs against St. Louis on June 5).

 

His last 8 inning stint was on Aug. 13, so we'll have to see if the trend continues.

 

There seems to be a bit of a pattern of Clemens being pretty "average" when asked to stretch himself , even a little. So while Carpenter has only thrown an extra 16 innings this year, the extra innings here and there seeem to have somewhat of an equalizing effect on Clemens, and so I don't think it's out of the question to assume that the extra workload would have put Clemens' ERA (and other secondary numbers) in the Carpenter range.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Here's another interesting quirk on Clemens.

 

He's only gone into the 8th inning 3 times this year.

 

On May 14, he went 8 innings against the Giants. His next start was one of his worst of the year (giving up 3 runs against Arizona, on May 19).

 

On May 30, he went 8 innings against Cincinnati. Again, his next start was one of his worst of the year (gave up 4 runs against St. Louis on June 5).

 

His last 8 inning stint was on Aug. 13, so we'll have to see if the trend continues.

 

There seems to be a bit of a pattern of Clemens being pretty "average" when asked to stretch himself , even a little. So while Carpenter has only thrown an extra 16 innings this year, the extra innings here and there seeem to have somewhat of an equalizing effect on Clemens, and so I don't think it's out of the question to assume that the extra workload would have put Clemens' ERA (and other secondary numbers) in the Carpenter range.

 

He gave up three hits and only two earned runs that game. I wouldn't call that a bad start. If three hits and two earned runs are considered one of his worst starts, then you are just helping the argument that he deserves the Cy Young right now.

[K-Town]

Here's another interesting quirk on Clemens.

 

He's only gone into the 8th inning 3 times this year.

 

On May 14, he went 8 innings against the Giants. His next start was one of his worst of the year (giving up 3 runs against Arizona, on May 19).

 

On May 30, he went 8 innings against Cincinnati. Again, his next start was one of his worst of the year (gave up 4 runs against St. Louis on June 5).

 

His last 8 inning stint was on Aug. 13, so we'll have to see if the trend continues.

 

There seems to be a bit of a pattern of Clemens being pretty "average" when asked to stretch himself , even a little. So while Carpenter has only thrown an extra 16 innings this year, the extra innings here and there seeem to have somewhat of an equalizing effect on Clemens, and so I don't think it's out of the question to assume that the extra workload would have put Clemens' ERA (and other secondary numbers) in the Carpenter range.

 

He gave up three hits and only two earned runs that game. I wouldn't call that a bad start. If three hits and two earned runs are considered one of his worst starts, then you are just helping the argument that he deserves the Cy Young right now.

 

Who cares about hits? I thought that ERA was going to be the reason that Clemens wins the Cy Young........... or does ERA not matter when it works against Clemens?

 

2 earned runs in 6 innings equates to a 3.00 ERA. That's not Cy Young material, this year.

 

And yes, the 3 runs allowed was one of his worst outings this year. And you're right, that's pretty impressive when you can call that one of your worst outings, but Carpenter has been equally impressive, in my opinion.

[treebird]

when you have to have a long, drawn-out discussion to determine whether or not a pitcher is having a better season than Bob Gibson in 1968, i think it makes it pretty obvious who should win the cy young.

[K-Town]

when you have to have a long, drawn-out discussion to determine whether or not a pitcher is having a better season than Bob Gibson in 1968, i think it makes it pretty obvious who should win the cy young.

 

If only it were that simple.

 

It's only long and drawn out because there's such a large difference of opinion. If rate stats were the only parameter to consider, then Clemens would be on par with Gibson's 1968 season, and Chad Cordero would be on par with Clemens this year.

 

Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Here's another interesting quirk on Clemens.

 

He's only gone into the 8th inning 3 times this year.

 

On May 14, he went 8 innings against the Giants. His next start was one of his worst of the year (giving up 3 runs against Arizona, on May 19).

 

On May 30, he went 8 innings against Cincinnati. Again, his next start was one of his worst of the year (gave up 4 runs against St. Louis on June 5).

 

His last 8 inning stint was on Aug. 13, so we'll have to see if the trend continues.

 

There seems to be a bit of a pattern of Clemens being pretty "average" when asked to stretch himself , even a little. So while Carpenter has only thrown an extra 16 innings this year, the extra innings here and there seeem to have somewhat of an equalizing effect on Clemens, and so I don't think it's out of the question to assume that the extra workload would have put Clemens' ERA (and other secondary numbers) in the Carpenter range.

 

He gave up three hits and only two earned runs that game. I wouldn't call that a bad start. If three hits and two earned runs are considered one of his worst starts, then you are just helping the argument that he deserves the Cy Young right now.

 

Who cares about hits? I thought that ERA was going to be the reason that Clemens wins the Cy Young........... or does ERA not matter when it works against Clemens?

 

2 earned runs in 6 innings equates to a 3.00 ERA. That's not Cy Young material, this year.

 

And yes, the 3 runs allowed was one of his worst outings this year. And you're right, that's pretty impressive when you can call that one of your worst outings, but Carpenter has been equally impressive, in my opinion.

 

Not only his ERA. Another reason he's right there in the Cy Young race is he leads the majors in WHIP too. (Granted Carp is right on his heels.) And he didn't give up 3 runs, he gave up 2. The unearned run doesn't count against him. He can't be held accountable for someone else's error. And I'm not arguing that Carp hasn't been exceptional this year. Any other year and he'd be a shoe in for the Cy Young. But Clemens ERA isn't just close to a whole run better than Carps, it's close to a whole run better than EVERYONE in the league. He has a .93 run advantage on Carp. Who does Carpenter have a .93 ERA advantage on? Carlos Zambrano, who is currently 16th in the majors in ERA. So Clemens has a bigger lead on Carp than Carp has on the person ranked all the way down at 16th.

[K-Town]

Not only his ERA. Another reason he's right there in the Cy Young race is he leads the majors in WHIP too. (Granted Carp is right on his heels.) And he didn't give up 3 runs, he gave up 2. The unearned run doesn't count against him. He can't be held accountable for someone else's error. And I'm not arguing that Carp hasn't been exceptional this year. Any other year and he'd be a shoe in for the Cy Young. But Clemens ERA isn't just close to a whole run better than Carps, it's close to a whole run better than EVERYONE in the league. He has a .93 run advantage on Carp. Who does Carpenter have a .93 ERA advantage on? Carlos Zambrano, who is currently 16th in the majors in ERA. So Clemens has a bigger lead on Carp than Carp has on the person ranked all the way down at 16th.

 

 

He's also only pitched 3 games ALL YEAR against likely playoff teams, as opposed to 7 for Carpenter.

 

He's also been coddled, and hasn't had to pace himself, like Carpenter has. Chad Cordero has a better ERA than Clemens. Why shouldn't HE win the Cy Young award?

 

It's also not a full run ERA difference. RJ lost the Cy Young to Clemens last year. RJ led Clemens in EVERY category, except wins (and RJ was playing on a TERRIBLE Arizona team, not a playoff team, like Clemens is this year).

[K-Town]

And I STILL can't get an answer as to why a starting pitcher with such a "brilliant" ERA hasn't finished a single game all year. That's just mind-boggling.

[1wizard]

Jay Dee wrote:

1wizard wrote:

Clemens is having an unbelievable year but if the rolls were reversed would Carp even be mentioned as a Cy Young Candidate? If Clemens had the 17 wins, second lowest ERA, more strikeouts, less walks, and more innings (7.5 innings per start), than he would have been given the award already.

 

If Carp had the great ERA, won only 11 games, and only averaged 6.8 innings per start, he would be severly criticized for being the benefactor of not going deep in games. The logical argument would be that he would a higher ERA if he went deeper in games. I highly doubt Carp would even be close in the Cy Young vote.

 

As it stands now, if Clemens wins the Cy Young, it would be a joke because RJ had the better stats last year and lost to Clemens because of wins. It would appear as if the media changes criteria to favor a higher profile pitcher.

 

 

If anyone had a 1.32 era , they would be talked about as a Cy Young candidate. And the national media loves the cardinals, so it is not like Clemens has the entire media behind him

 

If Clemens had Carps' numbers there would be no debate. Clemens would be your land slide winner. ESPN, most writers, and talking heads would say it is about wins. Moreover, you would see more of the argument that Carp is just not going deep enough in games and his era would be worse if he did go deeper into games.

 

I personally feel that Clemens' name recognition and age will help him if he continues to maintain his ERA despite not winning a lot of games.

[gus_dog]

And I STILL can't get an answer as to why a starting pitcher with such a "brilliant" ERA hasn't finished a single game all year. That's just mind-boggling.

 

Are you making light of his ERA? Uh, I mean...., it's pretty close to brilliant.

[K-Town]

And I STILL can't get an answer as to why a starting pitcher with such a "brilliant" ERA hasn't finished a single game all year. That's just mind-boggling.

 

Are you making light of his ERA? Uh, I mean...., it's pretty close to brilliant.

 

No. I'm not making fun of his ERA. I've said many times in this thread that Clemens is having a spectacular season.

 

Can you explain why he hasn't been able to finish any games, or did you just stop by to critique my post?

[gus_dog]

And I STILL can't get an answer as to why a starting pitcher with such a "brilliant" ERA hasn't finished a single game all year. That's just mind-boggling.

 

Are you making light of his ERA? Uh, I mean...., it's pretty close to brilliant.

 

No. I'm not making fun of his ERA. I've said many times in this thread that Clemens is having a spectacular season.

 

Can you explain why he hasn't been able to finish any games, or did you just stop by to critique my post?

 

Critique? I just asked a question - sorry to bother you.

 

I don't know why he has no CG's, but I'll guess it's because he's old.

[cubweiser03]

And I STILL can't get an answer as to why a starting pitcher with such a "brilliant" ERA hasn't finished a single game all year. That's just mind-boggling.

 

Are you making light of his ERA? Uh, I mean...., it's pretty close to brilliant.

 

No. I'm not making fun of his ERA. I've said many times in this thread that Clemens is having a spectacular season.

 

Can you explain why he hasn't been able to finish any games, or did you just stop by to critique my post?

 

Um lets see......how bout.....

 

43 years old!!

[K-Town]

And I STILL can't get an answer as to why a starting pitcher with such a "brilliant" ERA hasn't finished a single game all year. That's just mind-boggling.

 

Are you making light of his ERA? Uh, I mean...., it's pretty close to brilliant.

 

No. I'm not making fun of his ERA. I've said many times in this thread that Clemens is having a spectacular season.

 

Can you explain why he hasn't been able to finish any games, or did you just stop by to critique my post?

 

Um lets see......how bout.....

 

43 years old!!

 

If that's the reason, then it's no excuse, and should count against him when considering the Cy Young voting.

 

The award should go to the player who helps his team the most, not the player who "pitches really great for his age, and hangs in there as long as a 43 year old man should be expected to".

[cubweiser03]

And I STILL can't get an answer as to why a starting pitcher with such a "brilliant" ERA hasn't finished a single game all year. That's just mind-boggling.

 

Are you making light of his ERA? Uh, I mean...., it's pretty close to brilliant.

 

No. I'm not making fun of his ERA. I've said many times in this thread that Clemens is having a spectacular season.

 

Can you explain why he hasn't been able to finish any games, or did you just stop by to critique my post?

 

Um lets see......how bout.....

 

43 years old!!

 

If that's the reason, then it's no excuse, and should count against him when considering the Cy Young voting.

 

The award should go to the player who helps his team the most, not the player who "pitches really great for his age, and hangs in there as long as a 43 year old man should be expected to".

 

You asked why he hasnt finished a game. I gave you my answer. I didnt try to reason his success at his age to him winning the cy young. I wont even respond to your first statement because that is downright funny.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

He's also only pitched 3 games ALL YEAR against likely playoff teams, as opposed to 7 for Carpenter.

 

He's also been coddled, and hasn't had to pace himself, like Carpenter has. Chad Cordero has a better ERA than Clemens. Why shouldn't HE win the Cy Young award?

 

It's also not a full run ERA difference. RJ lost the Cy Young to Clemens last year. RJ led Clemens in EVERY category, except wins (and RJ was playing on a TERRIBLE Arizona team, not a playoff team, like Clemens is this year).

 

I still don't understand your idea of him being coddled. Carp goes what, 2/3 of an inning more per start than Clemens? Yeah, he has no complete games. But he also hasn't been knocked out in the third inning like Carpenter has. A guy that can give you seven innings of scoreless baseball seemingly every time is more than doing his job.

 

And no, it's not a full run. It's .93 runs. When was the last time a starting pitcher had a .93 lead on the rest of the league? He has a bigger lead on second place than second place has on 16th place. That's completely dominating every other pitcher. He has 11 wins right now. Carp has 17. But has Carp ever gone 8 scoreless innings and not gotten a decision? Stuff like that happens to Clemens a lot. He can't be responsible for terrible run support. They'll both finish with more wins than they have. The difference, Carpenter plays for the Cardinals (probably the best team in baseball) Clemens has pitched for what up until a few weeks ago, was one of the worst teams. If his ERA stays where it is, Carp will have to do something amazing to win the Cy Young.

 

Yes, I know Clemens name is helping him along in this. But he's posting the best ERA in the modern era. Lots of pitchers have won 17 games by this point. But how many have had an ERA this low this late in the season?

 

And you keep pointing out that he doesn't have any complete games. Who cares? He puts his team into position to win every time. He goes into the 7th or 8th inning almost every game. If Garner won't let him finish it, it's not his fault. If LaRussa wants to burn out Carpenter instead of resting him for the playoffs, that's his choice. But Garner is making it clear that he doesn't want to run his 43 year old into the ground.

 

Let me reiterate what I said before. I believe Carpenter will win the Cy Young this year. I'm just stating that right now, he's not the frontrunner in my opinion. Carp's having a good year, but Clemens is having an amazing year.

[indifferent]

But has Carp ever gone 8 scoreless innings and not gotten a decision? Stuff like that happens to Clemens a lot. He can't be responsible for terrible run support. They'll both finish with more wins than they have. The difference, Carpenter plays for the Cardinals (probably the best team in baseball) Clemens has pitched for what up until a few weeks ago, was one of the worst teams. If his ERA stays where it is, Carp will have to do something amazing to win the Cy Young.

 

 

Carp has one I can think of against Zambrano where he went 9 and gave up 1 ER and got a no decision.

 

Keeping an ERA as low as Clemens' is doubtful, especially with his back. I don't think Carp will have to do anything short of what he's been doing to win it. And as I said, if the season ended today, I'd give it to Clemens. Luckily, I think the choice will be a little more clear cut at the end of the season, one way or another.

[UK1679666180]

If Baseball was decided on rate stats? You're talking about the greatest season of all-time with Gibson, that 1.12 is known by everyone and Clemens has better rate stats than Gibson.

 

Yet, Clemens can have better rate stats and not be the front-runner for the Cy Young?

 

Clemens has been more valuable to the Astros and makes up the difference in innings b/c he dwarfs Carpenter as far as production.

 

This isn't a Lee/Pujols type deabte for MVP, there is such a glaring difference in production between the two.

 

If the STL offense is the reason why Carpenter wins the Cy Young, which is the why he has more wins than Clemens, then this award like the GG will be jaded and based on wrong qualifiers.

 

B/c, there shouldn't even be a discussion between Clemens and Carpenter as far as who is having the best season in the NL from a pitcher's standpoint.

 

It's also not a full run ERA difference. RJ lost the Cy Young to Clemens last year. RJ led Clemens in EVERY category, except wins (and RJ was playing on a TERRIBLE Arizona team, not a playoff team, like Clemens is this year).

 

RJ should've won it like Clemens deserves it.

 

Carp goes what, 2/3 of an inning more per start than Clemens?

 

1/2 inning more.

 

I also didn't know pitching CG was a main qualifier, if IP was such a big disparity between Clemens and Carpenter, then you would not have Clemens saving 10 more runs over an avg. pitcher than Carpenter. Carpenter if he is pitching so many more would have that distinction because PRAA is an accumulative stat like IP or CG.

[The Voice of Reason]

By the way, Gibson wasn't "taking hitters off" very often. He averaged 130 pitches per game that year. AVERAGED!!

 

Clemens wouldn't DREAM of throwing that many pitches in even ONE GAME.

 

If Clemens had done what Gibson did, he wouldn't have lasted to the All-Star break.

 

Different era. If Gibson faced today's hitters, he'd get rocked.

 

Not surprising, considering Gibson's over 60. :)

 

Seriously, I think you are dissing the talents of pre-stroid era players like Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Roberto Clemente, Ernie Banks, Pete Rose, Willie McCovey, etc. Bob Gibson was phenomenal.

[OldHappyCubFan]

Cleman's all the way. Hes on a horrible team. At the begainning of the season, the Astros were terrible.

 

He never had a real closer until Lidge healed up.

[TruffleShuffle]

Clemens has had 7 starts where he's gotten zero runs of run support, meaning it's been impossible for him to win those games. He's also had 4 games where the bullpen blew a lead after he left the game, thereby costing him a win. I sat down and looked at what Clemens' record would be if he had the run support that Carpenter had in each of his games, and it looks like Clemens' record would be about 19-1 right now.

 

Also, the Baseball Prospectus Expected W-L records are:

 

Carp: 14.0-5.5 (Luck=+4.5)

Clemens: 14.0-3.3 (Luck=-3.6)

 

Clemens' low expected win total was a bit surprising to me, but otherwise the stat turned out like I anticipated. Clemens has been very unlucky this year, while Carpenter has been fortunate to have such good offensive support.

[1wizard]

Cleman's all the way. Hes on a horrible team. At the begainning of the season, the Astros were terrible

.

 

Is the Houston team still terrible? They are leading the WC so I really do not see how they are a terrible team.