Cubs and Deadheads ...

[Nobody youd want to know]

. . . they both need a miracle.

 

Was reading in another thread some foolhardy Cubs fans still think we have a shot at the playoffs, so I says to myself, self, what's it gonna take?

 

Let's assume for the sake of this exercise we're not going to overtake the Cards--probably a safe assumption. Thus the teams we need to beat are the 'Stros, the Nats, the Phils, and the Marlins. While this is by no means a comprehensive list of possibilities--the Mets also have a better record than the Cubs, and the D-Backs and BrewCrew aren't far behind--I'll assume these 4 will be the teams to beat come season's end.

 

 

So, there are 53 games left on the schedule, plus a rainout makeup in Atlanta, and the Cubs are 5.5 games behind in the WC standings. Assuming Houston plays at the same .551 clip they've played at up to this point, they'll finish with 89 wins. For the Cubs to win 90 games--the absolute minimum to beat the 'Stros--they'll have to go 36-18, a robust .667 winning percentage. Hmmm.... let's have a look at that schedule. Our remaining series are:

 

3 @ NY

3 vs. Cin

4 vs. StL

3 @ Houston

3 @ Colorado

3 vs. Atlanta

3 vs. Florida

3 vs. Dodgers

3 @ Pittsburgh

3 @ StL

4 @ SF

3 vs. Cin

3 vs. StL

3 @ Milwaukee

3 vs. Houston

2 vs. Pittsburgh

4 @ Houston

plus 1 @ Atlanta somewhere in there

 

27 home, 27 away. Let's get optimistic and say we take the Cards 6 games to 4. That gives us 60 wins, with 44 left. Have to go 30-14 (.682). Our only other home games against contenders are the Atlanta, Florida and Houston series. Of those 9 games, lets say we take each series 2-1, for a total of 6-3. Now we're 66-61, and need to go 24-11 (.686) the rest of the way.

 

Tell you what--let's sweep our remaining home series, spanking Cincinnati, LA and Pittsburgh. 11-0! Woo hoo! We rock!

 

Hmmm... not enough. We're 77-61 (.558), but we only need to go 13-11 on the road to get to 90 wins. Certainly possible, since we're almost .500 on the road to date. Problem is, 7 of those 23 games are in Houston, so if they continue winning at a .551 clip they get 4 of 'em. Now we need to go 9-8 against: Milwaukee, San Fran, Pittsburgh, Colorado, the Mutts and Atlanta. Good news is, we're 4-1 in Pittsburgh, so we get 2 of the 3. Atlanta gets the rainout. Unfortunately, we're 1-5 in Beer City, and they seem to have our number late in the season. But this is my fantasy, so let's say we win 2 of the 3. We're now 85-67 (.559). We need to go 5-5, and SF, NYM and Colo are a combined .500 at home. Looks good, right? Problem is, knowing the Cubs, they'll be playing tight, and will be mightily susceptible to spoilers, especially the 4-game swing in PacBell Sept. 8-11 (which follows a 3-game series in Saint Looie).

 

Bottom line: It's possible, but I predict by mid-September we're be singing that old, sad song again:

 

Wait 'til next year.

[halplm]

well, that's certainly some fun guesswork :)

 

The bottom line is this... to get to 90 wins we need to go 36-18. That's EIGHTEEN games over .500. The most we've been over .500 at any point this season is 6.

 

Probably over the hottest stretch we had all year, May 10th to June 11th, we were 20-9, which is only 11 games over .500...

 

The odds of this club being 18 over .500 over the final 54 games are so small I don't know what to think...

 

Well now I'm depressed...

[CubFanPhilly]

I'll say it now: Wait 'til Next Year.

 

 

(And I consider myself an optimist when it comes to the Cubs.) :(

[Fred Hornkohl]

Here's your remaining schedule, with probable starters penciled in. Would be interesting to see specifically which games you think the CUBS will win.

 

Note: there is no makeup game in Atlanta. They played a day night double header on 07 July.

 

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter
109  Fri 08/05  @ New York      N    -    Hill        
110  Sat 08/06  @ New York           -    Maddux        
111  Sun 08/07  @ New York           -    Zambrano      
112  Mon 08/08    Cincinnati    N    -    Williams      
113  Tue 08/09    Cincinnati         -    Prior        
114  Wed 08/10    Cincinnati         -    Hill        
115  Thu 08/11    St. Louis          -    Maddux        
116  Fri 08/12    St. Louis          -    Zambrano      
117  Sat 08/13    St. Louis          -    Williams      
118  Sun 08/14    St. Louis     N    -    Prior        
119  Mon 08/15  @ Houston       N    -    Hill        
120  Tue 08/16  @ Houston       N    -    Maddux        
121  Wed 08/17  @ Houston       N    -    Zambrano      
122  Fri 08/19  @ Colorado           -    Williams      
123  Sat 08/20  @ Colorado      N    -    Prior        
124  Sun 08/21  @ Colorado           -    Hill        
125  Mon 08/22    Atlanta       N    -    Maddux        
126  Tue 08/23    Atlanta       N    -    Zambrano      
127  Wed 08/24    Atlanta            -    Williams      
128  Fri 08/26    Florida            -    Prior        
129  Sat 08/27    Florida            -    Hill        
130  Sun 08/28    Florida            -    Maddux        
131  Mon 08/29    Los Angeles   N    -    Zambrano      
132  Tue 08/30    Los Angeles   N    -    Williams      
133  Wed 08/31    Los Angeles        -    Prior        
134  Fri 09/02  @ Pittsburgh    N    -    Hill        
135  Sat 09/03  @ Pittsburgh         -    Maddux        
136  Sun 09/04  @ Pittsburgh         -    Zambrano      
137  Mon 09/05  @ St. Louis          -    Williams      
138  Tue 09/06  @ St. Louis     N    -    Prior        
139  Wed 09/07  @ St. Louis     N    -    Hill        
140  Thu 09/08  @ San Francisco N    -    Maddux        
141  Fri 09/09  @ San Francisco N    -    Zambrano      
142  Sat 09/10  @ San Francisco      -    Williams      
143  Sun 09/11  @ San Francisco      -    Prior        
144  Mon 09/12    Cincinnati    N    -    Hill        
145  Tue 09/13    Cincinnati    N    -    Maddux        
146  Wed 09/14    Cincinnati    N    -    Zambrano      
147  Thu 09/15    St. Louis     N    -    Williams      
148  Fri 09/16    St. Louis          -    Prior        
149  Sat 09/17    St. Louis          -    Hill        
150  Sun 09/18    St. Louis          -    Maddux        
151  Tue 09/20  @ Milwaukee     N    -    Zambrano      
152  Wed 09/21  @ Milwaukee     N    -    Williams      
153  Thu 09/22  @ Milwaukee          -    Prior        
154  Fri 09/23    Houston            -    Hill        
155  Sat 09/24    Houston            -    Maddux        
156  Sun 09/25    Houston            -    Zambrano      
157  Tue 09/27    Pittsburgh    N    -    Williams      
158  Wed 09/28    Pittsburgh         -    Prior        
159  Thu 09/29  @ Houston       N    -    Hill        
160  Fri 09/30  @ Houston       N    -    Maddux        
161  Sat 10/01  @ Houston       N    -    Zambrano      
162  Sun 10/02  @ Houston            -    Williams      

[Wheelimus]

Funny you mention Deadheads because, as of today....Help On The Way! :lol:

 

(only those familiar with the Grateful Dead will get that, else, ignore)

[ondeckchamps]

When you assume you make an ass/u/me.

[Scott G. F.]

I think that Houston is shooting it's load to early and will fall back to the pack. The Cubs just need to get hot at the right time and as of right now haven't.

 

I still believe this Cubs team can gel together and make a run. I still haven't seen a total "give up" in the this team yet. They really need to play like that have nothing to lose.

[Burtonbell]

Here's your remaining schedule, with probable starters penciled in. Would be interesting to see specifically which games you think the CUBS will win.

 

Oh man, Im glad I actually like Maddux as a person, because I have tickets to the 11th, 22nd, and 28th of August. I really wanted to see someone else, but I guess I will have to keep the Maddux jersey clean this month.

 

 

If I were to predict on how the month of August would go, I would say:

Win 2/3 vs. NY

Lose 2/3 vs. Cincy

Split St Louis

Lose 2/3 in Houston

Win 2/3 in Colorado (hopefully the offense will show up)

Lose 2/3 vs. Atlanta

Win 2/3 vs. Florida

Win 2/3 Vs. Dodgers

 

So that makes the rest of the month 13-12, and 14-14 for the month. Yeah, nice playoff team. Thats just IMO.

[erik316wttn]

I'll say it now: Wait 'til Next Year.

 

 

(And I consider myself an optimist when it comes to the Cubs.) :(

 

I've been saying "Wait till next year" for most of the year.

[Inthecards]

Off the top of my head i have no idea, but lets remember that Hou. still has to play the cards also and hopefully they are healthy for those games as well the playoffs. :wink:

[Fred Hornkohl]

Here's your remaining schedule, with probable starters penciled in. Would be interesting to see specifically which games you think the CUBS will win.

 

Oh man, Im glad I actually like Maddux as a person, because I have tickets to the 11th, 22nd, and 28th of August. I really wanted to see someone else, but I guess I will have to keep the Maddux jersey clean this month.

 

 

I hadn't even thought about that angle of it. As I look at my remaining tickets.... I've got Williams, Prior, Prior, & Prior. Hmmmmmmm.

[Inthecards]

Here's your remaining schedule, with probable starters penciled in. Would be interesting to see specifically which games you think the CUBS will win.

 

Oh man, Im glad I actually like Maddux as a person, because I have tickets to the 11th, 22nd, and 28th of August. I really wanted to see someone else, but I guess I will have to keep the Maddux jersey clean this month.

 

 

I hadn't even thought about that angle of it. As I look at my remaining tickets.... I've got Williams, Prior, Prior, & Prior. Hmmmmmmm.

 

remember that is only the order if injuries dont strike :wink:

[davecubsfan]

Funny you mention Deadheads because, as of today....Help On The Way! :lol:

 

(only those familiar with the Grateful Dead will get that, else, ignore)

 

You sir are an Estimated Prophet!!!

[badgercub]

Funny you mention Deadheads because, as of today....Help On The Way! :lol:

 

(only those familiar with the Grateful Dead will get that, else, ignore)

 

You sir are an Estimated Prophet!!!

 

Eyes of the World. I loved those shows at Soldier Field.

[Wheelimus]

Then of course, there's Casey Jones, a song that the team seems to be taking WAYYYyyy too literally with the recent fielding screwups...

 

"Driving that train, high on cocaine..."

 

:lol:

[davecubsfan]

Funny you mention Deadheads because, as of today....Help On The Way! :lol:

 

(only those familiar with the Grateful Dead will get that, else, ignore)

 

You sir are an Estimated Prophet!!!

 

Eyes of the World. I loved those shows at Soldier Field.

 

short of a good help slip franklin, there's nothing quite like a good Estimated/Eyes

[Brian]

Oh man I hope the projected starters stay in line, because both of my remaining games will be Zambrano. I've never seen awesome Z, Last year I went to a game in milwaukee where was decent but gave up 3 runs, 2 unearned, and the only offense the Cubs could muster was solo shot by Sammy. And this year I went to the Carlos meltdown against the Reds where he threw at someone and got kicked out.

[neely crenshaw]

i doubt that houston will play at a .551 level for the rest of the season. the cubs blew it right of the gate when we played all the teams that were at or below .500 but we obviously did not make our move.

 

we still have a chance but as i have said we can only hope to win if the others faulter ala washington. 85 wins is the best we can hope for, and that may be a stretch!