Dunn to Dodgers?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Ok, I've seen a lot I want to comment on, and I'll do it all in one post.

 

1. Is Dunn the "perfect" hitter? No, but he's pretty damn close. He's also only 25 so there is reason to believe he will get better.

 

2. I wouldn't let Pie be a deal breaker, but I'd do my best to keep him out of it. The Reds need pitchers more than they need outfielders, and that's our strength. It would take some good negotiations, but I think he could be traded for without giving up Pie. I do think Patterson would have to be included if Pie isn't.

 

3. I think the Reds would trade within the division if we have the best package. If it's close, they'll take the other offer. We might have to throw in that extra prospect to get anything done.

 

4. I do believe it will be hard to outbid the Dodgers if Depodesta decides it's worth giving up his top players to make a deal happen. If the Dodgers offer Edwin Jackson and Joel Guzman along with another prospect, we have no chance. On the other hand, if Depo decides he wants to hang on to Guzman then we have the horses to compete.

 

5. The best way to get Dunn might be to help the Reds with one of their money problems. We have no need of Griffey if we get Dunn, but we might could help them out by taking Milton.

 

6. If Jerome Williams continues to pitch well, he could be the kicker that gets this deal done. Williams has had major league success and is young and cheap. To the Cubs, he's also expendable. Williams would make any package the Cubs put together much more palatable to the Reds.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Don't deal off Pie. Deal off Dope & Guzman.

 

Until Guzman is healthy and pitching again, he has little to no value whatsoever. Unless he gets healthy, he'll be viewed as just another prospect who washed out on the way to the show.

[CubinNY]

Man if Hendry could somehow turn Hawkins into Dunn that would be great. I think Williams would be a good canidate for Cin as would Mitre.

[Roast]

Man if Hendry could somehow turn Hawkins into Dunn that would be great. I think Williams would be a good canidate for Cin as would Mitre.

 

He did turn JosK hernandez into Aram...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Again, let's not lose sight of the fact that Dunn is still just 25. Sure there are problems with Dunn's game, but in this thread I think they're being made out to be worse than they really are. Dunn is one of the best offensive players in the league, he's quite young, and he's rumored to be available. As has been mentioned, with the dearth of quality players available this offseason, and with no certainty in any of our OF spots for next year, I think if it came down to it I would overpay to get Dunn. Pie, Dope, Hill? That's crazy, despite the flaws of each player. Two of the three? I'd have to think really hard about that if that's the minimum it would take to get Dunn.

[ThePenguin11]

Again, let's not lose sight of the fact that Dunn is still just 25. Sure there are problems with Dunn's game, but in this thread I think they're being made out to be worse than they really are. Dunn is one of the best offensive players in the league, he's quite young, and he's rumored to be available. As has been mentioned, with the dearth of quality players available this offseason, and with no certainty in any of our OF spots for next year, I think if it came down to it I would overpay to get Dunn. Pie, Dope, Hill? That's crazy, despite the flaws of each player. Two of the three? I'd have to think really hard about that if that's the minimum it would take to get Dunn.

 

If you read this thread and knew nothing about the current state of baseball and it's players, you'd think Adam Dunn was horrible. Now is the time to get him. Strike while the iron's hot. I believe he's on the cusp of blowing the league away with his ability. If his average was .270 and the rest of his numbers were exactly the same (take some of his walks away and make them base hits) people would trade anything for him. It's all the same in the end. Only 6 NL players score more runs than he does. He gets on base and reaches home plate. He knocks in runs. He takes pitches and wears pitchers out. He's very, very talented.

[Tim]

Again, let's not lose sight of the fact that Dunn is still just 25. Sure there are problems with Dunn's game, but in this thread I think they're being made out to be worse than they really are. Dunn is one of the best offensive players in the league, he's quite young, and he's rumored to be available. As has been mentioned, with the dearth of quality players available this offseason, and with no certainty in any of our OF spots for next year, I think if it came down to it I would overpay to get Dunn. Pie, Dope, Hill? That's crazy, despite the flaws of each player. Two of the three? I'd have to think really hard about that if that's the minimum it would take to get Dunn.

 

If you read this thread and knew nothing about the current state of baseball and it's players, you'd think Adam Dunn was horrible. Now is the time to get him. Strike while the iron's hot. I believe he's on the cusp of blowing the league away with his ability. If his average was .270 and the rest of his numbers were exactly the same (take some of his walks away and make them base hits) people would trade anything for him. It's all the same in the end. Only 6 NL players score more runs than he does. He gets on base and reaches home plate. He knocks in runs. He takes pitches and wears pitchers out. He's very, very talented.

I hope this isn't supposed to be a characterization of my argument.

[Guest]

Here's the thing, despite the power and patience, Dunn is flawed as a hitter. He's a huge upgrade over what we have out there, but he's not the guy that I trade the farm for. If I'm going to make an offer of Pie + Dope + Hill, I want someone with a complete game like Abreu in return. And yes, I do recognize the age difference. My take is that I see Dunn as a guy that can devour bad pitching, but can also be dominated by good ones.

 

I wish there were a stats service that broke out player's numbers versus quality of pitcher (though that would be hard to define, obviously). I have no idea if my impression is right. In general, I just feel that guys with strikeout rates that high (including Patterson, Sosa in the past, etc.) are more vulnerable to the quality pitchers.

Interesting idea, and I don't think it would be impossible to test it. The amazing folks at retrosheet recently added PBP data for all seasons 2000-present. It shouldn't be too hard to link those tables with career pitching/hitting stats to see how different types of hitters fare against different types of pitchers. Once I get my new PC I think I'll give such a study a shot. (My current machine is getting a bit long in the tooth for such massive queries.)

[Nobody youd want to know]

I think any discussion with the Reds is going to start and end with pitching. There's no reason they'd want Patterson OR Dopirak; if I'm them I ask for Williams, Hill and another pitching prospect, probably Welly or Mitre, or possibly a guy like Pinto.

 

If I'm Hendry I give them Williams, Mitre and Pinto.

[Jazz]

Here's the thing, despite the power and patience, Dunn is flawed as a hitter. He's a huge upgrade over what we have out there, but he's not the guy that I trade the farm for. If I'm going to make an offer of Pie + Dope + Hill, I want someone with a complete game like Abreu in return. And yes, I do recognize the age difference. My take is that I see Dunn as a guy that can devour bad pitching, but can also be dominated by good ones.

 

I wish there were a stats service that broke out player's numbers versus quality of pitcher (though that would be hard to define, obviously). I have no idea if my impression is right. In general, I just feel that guys with strikeout rates that high (including Patterson, Sosa in the past, etc.) are more vulnerable to the quality pitchers.

 

 

That said, we often seem to have more trouble as a team against the dregs of the league, so maybe we should go after Dunn. :D

 

Your post makes me wonder if a Zambrano+Hill+Walker package could net us Abreu and Utley.

 

I would do that in a hearbeat

[ThePenguin11]

Again, let's not lose sight of the fact that Dunn is still just 25. Sure there are problems with Dunn's game, but in this thread I think they're being made out to be worse than they really are. Dunn is one of the best offensive players in the league, he's quite young, and he's rumored to be available. As has been mentioned, with the dearth of quality players available this offseason, and with no certainty in any of our OF spots for next year, I think if it came down to it I would overpay to get Dunn. Pie, Dope, Hill? That's crazy, despite the flaws of each player. Two of the three? I'd have to think really hard about that if that's the minimum it would take to get Dunn.

 

If you read this thread and knew nothing about the current state of baseball and it's players, you'd think Adam Dunn was horrible. Now is the time to get him. Strike while the iron's hot. I believe he's on the cusp of blowing the league away with his ability. If his average was .270 and the rest of his numbers were exactly the same (take some of his walks away and make them base hits) people would trade anything for him. It's all the same in the end. Only 6 NL players score more runs than he does. He gets on base and reaches home plate. He knocks in runs. He takes pitches and wears pitchers out. He's very, very talented.

I hope this isn't supposed to be a characterization of my argument.

 

Partially. You were one of a number of posters who made it seem if there was something wrong with his ability. For his one weakness, striking out, he has many more strengths. He combines plate discipline, speed and power. The way I see people talking about him makes him out to look like a scrub. Calling him a flawed hitter when he takes more walks than 99% of the league is inaccurate and unfair.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Partially. You were one of a number of posters who made it seem if there was something wrong with his ability. For his one weakness, striking out, he has many more strengths. He combines plate discipline, speed and power. The way I see people talking about him makes him out to look like a scrub. Calling him a flawed hitter when he takes more walks than 99% of the league is inaccurate and unfair.

 

Speed? Dunn is many things, fast isn't one of them.

[UMFan83]

How about (and I suck at making trade predictions, but I'll try)

 

Mitre, Murton, Lewis (does he still have value?), Wellemeyer

 

Not enought to get it done?

 

You wouldn't think that the Reds would want to take on another OF, but with how Murton has played this year, and the fact that Griffey's contract has to be expiring sometime soon, they would almost have to demand Murton in a trade. Plus you are giving them a major league ready pitcher in Mitre, another great arm that should be major league ready with a few issues to take care of, and a throw in infielder that is one year removed from a great season. I'd replace Lewis and Patterson, but the Reds won't want another OF, and as I said earlier with how Murton has performed in AA and his brief majors stint, they would be dumb to not demand Murton for a player of Dunn's caliber. Get it done JH!

[chopsx9]

Ok, I've seen a lot I want to comment on, and I'll do it all in one post.

 

1. Is Dunn the "perfect" hitter? No, but he's pretty damn close. He's also only 25 so there is reason to believe he will get better.

 

 

I am sorry, but you lost me here. Dunn is not pretty close to a perfect hitter. Pujols, Bonds,Manny Ramirez, Guerrero, Lee (THIS year) and couple of others are a lot closer than Dunn. He can be a very valuable player but close to perfect...not even. I think a lot of people are waaay over valuing Dunn here (call it irrational exuberance), again he can be a very valuable player and I'd be very happy if Cubs got him (dependent on what it took to get him), but he is not the second coming.

[JC]

How about (and I suck at making trade predictions, but I'll try)

 

Mitre, Murton, Lewis (does he still have value?), Wellemeyer

 

Not enought to get it done?

 

You wouldn't think that the Reds would want to take on another OF, but with how Murton has played this year, and the fact that Griffey's contract has to be expiring sometime soon, they would almost have to demand Murton in a trade. Plus you are giving them a major league ready pitcher in Mitre, another great arm that should be major league ready with a few issues to take care of, and a throw in infielder that is one year removed from a great season. I'd replace Lewis and Patterson, but the Reds won't want another OF, and as I said earlier with how Murton has performed in AA and his brief majors stint, they would be dumb to not demand Murton for a player of Dunn's caliber. Get it done JH!

 

Dunn won't be moved unless you overwhelm Cincy with pitching. I wager that Welly has limited trade value, at best, while Mitre's value probably isn't close to getting Dunn. In addition, don't forget that you can't just satiate the Reds with a host of arms. They would still need to find room on their 40 man roster for those you send to them (and I suspect they would only agree to major league ready players, suggesting they would require 40 man spots).

 

Rich Hill would be a mere starting spot for Dunn. Throw in Pinto and Mitre, and you might get some interest.

 

Maybe.

[ThePenguin11]

Partially. You were one of a number of posters who made it seem if there was something wrong with his ability. For his one weakness, striking out, he has many more strengths. He combines plate discipline, speed and power. The way I see people talking about him makes him out to look like a scrub. Calling him a flawed hitter when he takes more walks than 99% of the league is inaccurate and unfair.

 

Speed? Dunn is many things, fast isn't one of them.

 

He's exceptionally fast for a 275 pound man. He stole 19 bases two years ago and has 6 this year. However, you don't have to be a great base stealer to be fast and smart around the paths. That's why there's a 43% chance when Dunn hits first base, he's going to end up scoring. That's the same percentage as Derrek Lee. It's not a Bill James stat, its mine and I like it.

 

Runs/(BB+H)=scoring percentage.

 

It shows that he has a knack for finding home plate despite all of those awful, awful strikeouts. It doesn't consider errors or fielder's choices, but I'm no sabermetrician either.

[chopsx9]

Again, let's not lose sight of the fact that Dunn is still just 25. Sure there are problems with Dunn's game, but in this thread I think they're being made out to be worse than they really are. Dunn is one of the best offensive players in the league, he's quite young, and he's rumored to be available. As has been mentioned, with the dearth of quality players available this offseason, and with no certainty in any of our OF spots for next year, I think if it came down to it I would overpay to get Dunn. Pie, Dope, Hill? That's crazy, despite the flaws of each player. Two of the three? I'd have to think really hard about that if that's the minimum it would take to get Dunn.

 

If you read this thread and knew nothing about the current state of baseball and it's players, you'd think Adam Dunn was horrible. Now is the time to get him. Strike while the iron's hot. I believe he's on the cusp of blowing the league away with his ability. If his average was .270 and the rest of his numbers were exactly the same (take some of his walks away and make them base hits) people would trade anything for him. It's all the same in the end. Only 6 NL players score more runs than he does. He gets on base and reaches home plate. He knocks in runs. He takes pitches and wears pitchers out. He's very, very talented.

I hope this isn't supposed to be a characterization of my argument.

 

Partially. You were one of a number of posters who made it seem if there was something wrong with his ability. For his one weakness, striking out, he has many more strengths. He combines plate discipline, speed and power. The way I see people talking about him makes him out to look like a scrub. Calling him a flawed hitter when he takes more walks than 99% of the league is inaccurate and unfair.

 

Hitting .239 is not a flaw? I don't think you can classify it as a strength. I don't care what your OBP is, (Dunn is NOT in the top 15 in the NL), a major league player needs to be able to hit higher than that. Again he can be a very valuable player but lets not make that pedestal too high.

[UMFan83]

Or how about

 

Patterson and Murton to the Dodgers

Wellemeyer, Mitre, Andy LaRoche (3B/SS Jacksonville -AA), Dodger Throw in to the Reds

Dunn and above average prospect to the Cubs

 

Cubs give up - Patterson, Murton, Wellemeyer, Mitre

Cubs get - Dunn and Prospect

 

Dodgers give up - Andy LaRoche, Prospect, Throw in

Dodgers get - Patterson and Murton

 

Reds give up - Dunn

Reds get - Wellemeyer, Mitre, LaRoche, Throw in

 

Suggestions? I think the consensus will be that the Cubs don't get enough in return and/or the Reds get too much for Dunn.

[UMFan83]

How about (and I suck at making trade predictions, but I'll try)

 

Mitre, Murton, Lewis (does he still have value?), Wellemeyer

 

Not enought to get it done?

 

You wouldn't think that the Reds would want to take on another OF, but with how Murton has played this year, and the fact that Griffey's contract has to be expiring sometime soon, they would almost have to demand Murton in a trade. Plus you are giving them a major league ready pitcher in Mitre, another great arm that should be major league ready with a few issues to take care of, and a throw in infielder that is one year removed from a great season. I'd replace Lewis and Patterson, but the Reds won't want another OF, and as I said earlier with how Murton has performed in AA and his brief majors stint, they would be dumb to not demand Murton for a player of Dunn's caliber. Get it done JH!

 

Dunn won't be moved unless you overwhelm Cincy with pitching. I wager that Welly has limited trade value, at best, while Mitre's value probably isn't close to getting Dunn. In addition, don't forget that you can't just satiate the Reds with a host of arms. They would still need to find room on their 40 man roster for those you send to them (and I suspect they would only agree to major league ready players, suggesting they would require 40 man spots).

 

Rich Hill would be a mere starting spot for Dunn. Throw in Pinto and Mitre, and you might get some interest.

 

Maybe.

 

^ Heh, thats why I don't usually make trade suggestions. I don't even consider 40 man vacancies when I draw these up

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Or how about

 

Patterson and Mitre to the Dodgers

Wellemeyer, Murton, Andy LaRoche (3B/SS Jacksonville -AA), Dodger Throw in to the Reds

Dunn and above average prospect to the Cubs

 

Cubs give up - Patterson, Murton, Wellemeyer, Mitre

Cubs get - Dunn and Prospect

 

Dodgers give up - Andy LaRoche, Prospect, Throw in

Dodgers get - Patterson and Mitre

 

Reds give up - Dunn

Reds get - Wellemeyer, Murton, LaRoche, Throw in

 

Suggestions? I think the consensus will be that the Cubs don't get enough in return and/or the Reds get too much for Dunn.

 

Actually, I think the opposite. The Reds don't get enough pitching, they have Encarnacion coming up at 3B so they don't have a need for LaRoche. IMO the Dodgers get hosed. Patterson, Murton Welly, and Mitre for Dunn I'd do every day of the week.

[Tim]

Again, let's not lose sight of the fact that Dunn is still just 25. Sure there are problems with Dunn's game, but in this thread I think they're being made out to be worse than they really are. Dunn is one of the best offensive players in the league, he's quite young, and he's rumored to be available. As has been mentioned, with the dearth of quality players available this offseason, and with no certainty in any of our OF spots for next year, I think if it came down to it I would overpay to get Dunn. Pie, Dope, Hill? That's crazy, despite the flaws of each player. Two of the three? I'd have to think really hard about that if that's the minimum it would take to get Dunn.

 

If you read this thread and knew nothing about the current state of baseball and it's players, you'd think Adam Dunn was horrible. Now is the time to get him. Strike while the iron's hot. I believe he's on the cusp of blowing the league away with his ability. If his average was .270 and the rest of his numbers were exactly the same (take some of his walks away and make them base hits) people would trade anything for him. It's all the same in the end. Only 6 NL players score more runs than he does. He gets on base and reaches home plate. He knocks in runs. He takes pitches and wears pitchers out. He's very, very talented.

I hope this isn't supposed to be a characterization of my argument.

Partially. You were one of a number of posters who made it seem if there was something wrong with his ability. For his one weakness, striking out, he has many more strengths. He combines plate discipline, speed and power. The way I see people talking about him makes him out to look like a scrub. Calling him a flawed hitter when he takes more walks than 99% of the league is inaccurate and unfair.

So which part of me saying that he'd be a huge upgrade in our OF is calling him a scrub? Or do you just feel that you need to miscast my argument to make yours look better?

 

 

Just to be sure I'm understood:

 

- I think Dunn is a very good player, one of the better offensive OF's in baseball

- I would be really happy to have him on the Cubs

- I also feel he does have holes in his game that somewhat limit his value

- Therefore, I'd be a little cautious about the package I put together to acquire him

 

Also, for those that say Dunn would do better in a superior lineup...The Reds have significantly outscored the Cubs so far this year. He's already in a better lineup than the Cubs have.

 

 

 

-----

 

 

One last note: Can we stop talking about trading a pitching prospect whose one big flaw at this point is giving up too many HR's to Cincy? I think they'd be more interested in a pitcher who can keep the ball in the park.

[biittner77]

Keep in mind that Dunn's stats are limited by the fact that he doesn't get to face Reds pitching. That should be good for 20 points of BA right there- if you think that's important.

 

If the Cubs are going to trade Williams, Mitre and Hill for Dunn who's the 5th starter next year? I suppose Burnett would be the first choice but he has bidding war written all over him.

[JC]

He's already in a better lineup than the Cubs have.

 

This was a Pandora's Box I didn't want to open. I certainly agree.

[JC]

One last note: Can we stop talking about trading a pitching prospect whose one big flaw at this point is giving up too many HR's to Cincy? I think they'd be more interested in a pitcher who can keep the ball in the park.

 

Two words: Eric Milton :wink:

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

One last note: Can we stop talking about trading a pitching prospect whose one big flaw at this point is giving up too many HR's to Cincy? I think they'd be more interested in a pitcher who can keep the ball in the park.

 

Two words: Eric Milton :wink:

 

If we took back Milton's contract, it certainly would make it easier to acquire Dunn.