Dayton Daily News suggests Kearns for Hill

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Diffusion's points about Kearns have sold me that he's not worth going after. Certainly not worth giving up a top prospect like Hill.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Hill consistently hit 91-93 in the minors, I wouldn't judge his FB speed based on 3 relief appearances in the big leagues.

 

The Cubs have three lefties emerging as near ML ready: Hill, Pinto, and Marshall. All could be above average ML pitchers. Of the three, I'd trade Pinto first.

 

Of those three, the last I trade is Marshall.

[ThePenguin11]

so you've seen him throw, what, five innings? his fastball is faster than the 89 you mentioned previously, as well as the 91 you mention in this post.

 

kearns' value has plummeted since the beginning of the season, while hill's has skyrocketed. no thanks. if anybody thinks kearns is the difference in making the playoffs, they're kidding themselves.

 

Well, thePenguin isn't off-base with Hill's fastball as JJ Cooper of BA.com said about Rich Hill:

 

J.J. Cooper: Hill is a prospect, as he has an above-average 12-to-6 breaking ball that can be a strikeout pitch--it's a true major league curveball. He also has a major league average fastball for a lefty (87-90). But there are definite concerns about his command and his delivery that he has to work out. He's got potential, but he's not real polished yet. Because of his command questions, he could end up profiling as a reliever, but his curveballs (he throws a big-breaking one and a power curve) means that he can get righthanders out as well.

 

So I do believe that thePenguin is OFF with his "scouting" of Rich Hill, maybe because he has delusions of trying to get the megaoverrated Austin Kearns. BUT, Rich Hill, IMO, does need a third pitch if he wants to become a starter, otherwise his stuff maybe that of a lefty setup.

 

Before I get killed for the Kearns thing it should be pointed out that I said that Kearns may not be the right match for a deal:

 

I was comparing Hill to a young Shawn Estes, and 89 MPH is not very hard for a fastball. He doesn't throw with any movement, from what I've seen his fastball is straight as an arrow. Maybe Kearns isn't the right move. But I think Hill is a very tradeable commodity. After thinking about it for a few minutes I thought about the prospect of Murton and Pie playing left and center and that maybe looking for a LF right now is not a priority. But I think if we can get some real major league talent for Hill we need to take it. We can't fall in love with all of our prospects. We'll never see 80% of them play anyways. Especially with Dusty here through the end of next season.

 

And while everyone can sit here and mock my ability to scout, I'll point out that I just watched Hill's complete 4 1/3 outing vs. the Brewers (again). This is what I found:

 

He throws a pretty straight fastball from 89-92 (one reached 93 and most were between 89-91)

 

His Curveball was between 69-74 and pretty decent against the righties. Keep in mind that we're talking about the Brewers here.

 

He threw threw three pitches (84 85 87) that could be characterized as off-spead, but were probably fastballs with a bit taken off.

 

So he has exactly two pitches. No changeup, no slider no two seamer. The Curveball is slow and breaks a ton, but the fastball is too slow to keep batters honest.

 

We may want to read the whole thread before making such assumtions as these:

 

So I do believe that thePenguin is OFF with his "scouting" of Rich Hill, maybe because he has delusions of trying to get the megaoverrated Austin Kearns.

 

This is a fair assessment and I agree with it:

 

BUT, Rich Hill, IMO, does need a third pitch if he wants to become a starter, otherwise his stuff maybe that of a lefty setup.

 

And we may want to refrain from trashing someones's ability to scout before all the facts are there. I've laid out some pretty good ones.

[Productive Outs]

Keep in mind that we're talking about the Brewers here.

 

Yes, the Brewers, a team that is 1 1/2 games behind us right now in the division. I don't think you can use that as a reason to diminish Hill's potential.

[imb]

If we trade Hill for Kearns, Hendry is getting a nice white envelope full of anthrax for christmas.

[Outshined_One]

The Reds Zone kiddies don't seem to like this trade idea since they think they're giving up too much.

 

We seem to think we're giving up too much.

 

Guess this deal's even, then. :D

[ThePenguin11]

Keep in mind that we're talking about the Brewers here.

 

Yes, the Brewers, a team that is 1 1/2 games behind us right now in the division. I don't think you can use that as a reason to diminish Hill's potential.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Hill, I hope I'm wrong. But the fact is a lot of people here over-value our farm players and never want to give up any of them. If good deals (transactions for quality MLB talent) get done, good farm prospects have to be moved.

 

The BREWERS are 29th out of 30 in MLB for batting average .255. .002 from being the WORST hitting team in the majors.

Edited July 10, 2005 by ThePenguin11

[ThePenguin11]

Geez, if I said let's trade Hill for ARod I'm sure someone here would tell me I'm crazy. That he's too old or too expensive to be worth as much as Richard Hill.

 

*Keep in mind I said that we could do better than Kearns.*

[imb]

Geez, if I said let's trade Hill for ARod I'm sure someone here would tell me I'm crazy. That he's too old or too expensive to be worth as much as Richard Hill.

 

*Keep in mind I said that we could do better than Kearns.*

 

Yeah, because ARod and Kearns are at all comparable.

[katway]

This is a tough call for me. If I had some assurance that Kearns would return to 03 form, i'd do it so fast it'd make heads spin. However, I think we already have a Sucky major league outfielder that got sent down to AAA.....

 

Speaking of "Sucky major league outfielder that got sent down to AAA", how about Patterson for Kearns and then both teams can keep their fingers crossed.

 

Class of 1998 bust for Class of 1998 bust. Sounds good to me.

[tate2hollowaytd]

I think we should get Kearns before Cincy calls him up for the 4 game set that starts on the 18th. Ya know he'll go like 12 for 12 with 8 homers and 14 or 15 rbi's against us! Ok that was my first post 'n' all so at least the "First post jitters" are out of the way. BTW This site rules! Thanks :)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think we should get Kearns before Cincy calls him up for the 4 game set that starts on the 18th. Ya know he'll go like 12 for 12 with 8 homers and 14 or 15 rbi's against us! Ok that was my first post 'n' all so at least the "First post jitters" are out of the way. BTW This site rules! Thanks :)

 

Welcome to the Forum!

[Rooftop Bum]

Keep in mind that we're talking about the Brewers here.

 

Yes, the Brewers, a team that is 1 1/2 games behind us right now in the division. I don't think you can use that as a reason to diminish Hill's potential.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Hill, I hope I'm wrong. But the fact is a lot of people here over-value our farm players and never want to give up any of them. If good deals (transactions for quality MLB talent) get done, good farm prospects have to be moved.

 

The BREWERS are 29th out of 30 in MLB for batting average .255. .002 from being the WORST hitting team in the majors.

 

Exactly. Sure it sucks to give up someone like Hill but this team needs some offense now. Kearns will hopefully do better. The Cubs have to do something and this would not be that bad IMO. As much as everyone would like to give up nothing for something it usually does not happen that way.

[ThePenguin11]

Geez, if I said let's trade Hill for ARod I'm sure someone here would tell me I'm crazy. That he's too old or too expensive to be worth as much as Richard Hill.

 

*Keep in mind I said that we could do better than Kearns.*

 

Yeah, because ARod and Kearns are at all comparable.

 

Who the heck is comparing them? I have to keep restating that I commented earlier that Kearns may not be enough. My point has been that we have to look seriously at any deal for a quality major league need if someone came along asking for Richard Hill. I was being sarcastic by saying that ARod would get trashed here if we brought up a trade for one of our prospects, namely Hill. We need to wake up here, all minor leaguers are not prospects, Hill is one, but not one of our best. His value is as high as it's going to be, unless he becomes an all star, which I would bet my life against.

Edited July 10, 2005 by ThePenguin11

[Rooftop Bum]

Keep in mind that we're talking about the Brewers here.

 

Yes, the Brewers, a team that is 1 1/2 games behind us right now in the division. I don't think you can use that as a reason to diminish Hill's potential.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Hill, I hope I'm wrong. But the fact is a lot of people here over-value our farm players and never want to give up any of them. If good deals (transactions for quality MLB talent) get done, good farm prospects have to be moved.

 

The BREWERS are 29th out of 30 in MLB for batting average .255. .002 from being the WORST hitting team in the majors.

 

Exactly. Sure it sucks to give up someone like Hill but this team needs some offense now. Kearns will hopefully do better. The Cubs have to do something and this would not be that bad IMO. As much as everyone would like to give up nothing for something it usually does not happen that way.

[ThePenguin11]

Keep in mind that we're talking about the Brewers here.

 

Yes, the Brewers, a team that is 1 1/2 games behind us right now in the division. I don't think you can use that as a reason to diminish Hill's potential.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Hill, I hope I'm wrong. But the fact is a lot of people here over-value our farm players and never want to give up any of them. If good deals (transactions for quality MLB talent) get done, good farm prospects have to be moved.

 

The BREWERS are 29th out of 30 in MLB for batting average .255. .002 from being the WORST hitting team in the majors.

 

Exactly. Sure it sucks to give up someone like Hill but this team needs some offense now. Kearns will hopefully do better. The Cubs have to do something and this would not be that bad IMO. As much as everyone would like to give up nothing for something it usually does not happen that way.

 

I believe that strategy is called buy low / sell high. i.e. Aramis Ramirez trade.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Geez, if I said let's trade Hill for ARod I'm sure someone here would tell me I'm crazy. That he's too old or too expensive to be worth as much as Richard Hill.

 

*Keep in mind I said that we could do better than Kearns.*

 

Yeah, because ARod and Kearns are at all comparable.

 

Who the hell is comparing them? I have to keep restating that I commented earlier that Kearns may not be enough. My point has been that we have to look seriously at any deal for a quality major league need if someone came along asking for Richard Hill. I was being sarcastic by saying that ARod would get trashed here if we brought up a trade for one of our prospects, namely Hill. We need to wake up here, all minor leaguers are not prospects, Hill is one, but not one of our best. His value is as high as it's going to be, unless he becomes an all star, which I would bet my life on.

 

Many people have suggested trading Hill for different players, and many people wouldn't trade Hill for Kearns. Hill is a prospect, and may or may not pan out, but someone who leads Minor League baseball in K's is not someone that I'd quickly trade away, and certainly not for someone like Kearns.

[ThePenguin11]

Geez, if I said let's trade Hill for ARod I'm sure someone here would tell me I'm crazy. That he's too old or too expensive to be worth as much as Richard Hill.

 

*Keep in mind I said that we could do better than Kearns.*

 

Yeah, because ARod and Kearns are at all comparable.

 

Who the hell is comparing them? I have to keep restating that I commented earlier that Kearns may not be enough. My point has been that we have to look seriously at any deal for a quality major league need if someone came along asking for Richard Hill. I was being sarcastic by saying that ARod would get trashed here if we brought up a trade for one of our prospects, namely Hill. We need to wake up here, all minor leaguers are not prospects, Hill is one, but not one of our best. His value is as high as it's going to be, unless he becomes an all star, which I would bet my life on.

 

Many people have suggested trading Hill for different players, and many people wouldn't trade Hill for Kearns. Hill is a prospect, and may or may not pan out, but someone who leads Minor League baseball in K's is not someone that I'd quickly trade away, and certainly not for someone like Kearns.

 

I just think we should be careful to not delude ourselves over a 25 year old with two pitches who led AA (a pitcher friendly league) in strikeouts.

[Rooftop Bum]

Part of the problem here is simply this. There are not a bunch of great ball players the Cubs can get at this moment. So, it's either stick with what the Cubs have now for offense and let it be for the rest of this season. Or you ship Hill off for someone that might make a lit bit better difference. Right now we basically get nothing offensively from the left field position. Kearns would probably help in that regard. But I don't know. I can't see it getting much better for the Cubs right now unless they get some more pop from left.

[Rooftop Bum]

Part of the problem here is simply this. There are not a bunch of great ball players the Cubs can get at this moment. So, it's either stick with what the Cubs have now for offense and let it be for the rest of this season. Or you ship Hill off for someone that might make a lit bit better difference. Right now we basically get nothing offensively from the left field position. Kearns would probably help in that regard. But I don't know. I can't see it getting much better for the Cubs right now unless they get some more pop from left.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Geez, if I said let's trade Hill for ARod I'm sure someone here would tell me I'm crazy. That he's too old or too expensive to be worth as much as Richard Hill.

 

*Keep in mind I said that we could do better than Kearns.*

 

Yeah, because ARod and Kearns are at all comparable.

 

Who the hell is comparing them? I have to keep restating that I commented earlier that Kearns may not be enough. My point has been that we have to look seriously at any deal for a quality major league need if someone came along asking for Richard Hill. I was being sarcastic by saying that ARod would get trashed here if we brought up a trade for one of our prospects, namely Hill. We need to wake up here, all minor leaguers are not prospects, Hill is one, but not one of our best. His value is as high as it's going to be, unless he becomes an all star, which I would bet my life on.

 

Many people have suggested trading Hill for different players, and many people wouldn't trade Hill for Kearns. Hill is a prospect, and may or may not pan out, but someone who leads Minor League baseball in K's is not someone that I'd quickly trade away, and certainly not for someone like Kearns.

 

I just think we should be careful to not delude ourselves over a 25 year old with two pitches who led AA (a pitcher friendly league) in strikeouts.

 

IIRC, Hill was a pitching convert, so his age isn't as much of a problem, although it definitely has an impact. Hill's K rate stayed the same at AAA(a hitter friendly league) after being promoted.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Part of the problem here is simply this. There are not a bunch of great ball players the Cubs can get at this moment. So, it's either stick with what the Cubs have now for offense and let it be for the rest of this season. Or you ship Hill off for someone that might make a lit bit better difference. Right now we basically get nothing offensively from the left field position. Kearns would probably help in that regard. But I don't know. I can't see it getting much better for the Cubs right now unless they get some more pop from left.

 

Specifically, Kearns probably would not be better than what we have. Stealing what Diffusion brought to light earlier, Kearns's major league success was at a ridiculously unsustainable BABIP rate, and since then he has regressed.

[ThePenguin11]

Geez, if I said let's trade Hill for ARod I'm sure someone here would tell me I'm crazy. That he's too old or too expensive to be worth as much as Richard Hill.

 

*Keep in mind I said that we could do better than Kearns.*

 

Yeah, because ARod and Kearns are at all comparable.

 

Who the hell is comparing them? I have to keep restating that I commented earlier that Kearns may not be enough. My point has been that we have to look seriously at any deal for a quality major league need if someone came along asking for Richard Hill. I was being sarcastic by saying that ARod would get trashed here if we brought up a trade for one of our prospects, namely Hill. We need to wake up here, all minor leaguers are not prospects, Hill is one, but not one of our best. His value is as high as it's going to be, unless he becomes an all star, which I would bet my life on.

 

Many people have suggested trading Hill for different players, and many people wouldn't trade Hill for Kearns. Hill is a prospect, and may or may not pan out, but someone who leads Minor League baseball in K's is not someone that I'd quickly trade away, and certainly not for someone like Kearns.

 

I just think we should be careful to not delude ourselves over a 25 year old with two pitches who led AA (a pitcher friendly league) in strikeouts.

 

IIRC, Hill was a pitching convert, so his age isn't as much of a problem, although it definitely has an impact. Hill's K rate stayed the same at AAA(a hitter friendly league) after being promoted.

 

Actually Hill has been pitching since his Freshman year at the University of Michigan in 2000.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/rich_hill.shtml

[ThePenguin11]

Again, I'm not trying to totally trash Hill. I'm just not convinced he's destined to be above average. He's 25 and played above A ball for the first time in 2005. Granted he made it to the majors, but is anyone convinced that the league won't figure him out and that he can pitch 200 innings against professional hitters?

 

Also - he's never pitched more than 110 innings in one season. Can he do it for 200 and throw a curveball with every third pitch? A lot of questions...

[oldcubsfan]

Again, I'm not trying to totally trash Hill. I'm just not convinced he's destined to be above average. He's 25 and played above A ball for the first time in 2005. Granted he made it to the majors, but is anyone convinced that the league won't figure him out and that he can pitch 200 innings against professional hitters?

I agree there are questions about Hill, but there are also many, many questions about the potential of Kearns. The Reds aren't sure about him, it isn't like he is a lock to be a star. I'd rather keep Hill.