Bats available next year

[texascub]

Abreu is already 31, if Z is getting shipped to them then they better add Cole Hamels, Jake Blalock, and another prospect.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

My brief $.02

 

Wood is good, wins are overrated. Trading Wood is improbable and probably not a smart decision.

 

Burnett is overrated, he's helped a lot by Pro Player. His K's help that, but he doesn't strike out a TON of guys, and he's a past injury risk. Plus, as the premier FA pitcher, he'll be vastly overpaid.

 

Zambrano is nearly the most desirable player in trade in all of baseball. Trading him for anything less than two OUTSTANDING players would be very very very bad.

 

EDIT: For as much as people say that Wood hasn't been an "Ace" the last two years, his ERA+ last year was better than anything Burnett has done in his career(Excepting Burnett's 41 IP rookie year).

[imb]

Since the beginning of 2004, when healthy, Wood has been better than Zambrano.

 

/can of worms

 

You mean for the 3 weeks that he has been healthy.

 

Actually, I want to see if I'm right.

 

Wood, before shoulder injury in 2004.

 

45.2IP 28H 3HR 13BB 50K

 

Zambrano to that point

 

41.1IP 30H 1HR 11BB 35K

 

Wood's last three starts.

18.2IP 14H 3HR 6BB 19K

 

Zambrano's last three starts.

 

22IP 15H 1HR 12BB 20K

 

Those are really, really similar. When I said this earlier, I was just kidding around, talking without really knowing. But maybe I was right.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Yeah, thats actually a very good idea. I'd much rather trade wood and keep zambrano, but im sure wood's trade value is nowhere near zambrano's. Hoops, who do you suppose we could get for one of them? I saw someone say mench and delucci or nix, but i dont think texas would give up mench and another ML outfielder for wood, maybe zambrano but not for wood. You might be able to get Mench for Wood straight up, but then again i thought wood doesn't want to go to the AL...and therefore he wouldnt waive his no trade to Texas

 

I think Zambrano is easier to trade than Wood. He hasn't reached free agency yet, he's younger, he's been more dominant lately and he's been relatively injury free. So, why do the Cubs deal him? Because he will bring back an elite bat. And the Cubs organization is more pro-Wood than pro-Zambrano. I can tell you for fact that some in the organization do not like Zambrano's mental make-up or maturity. And the fact that he's represented by Boras, and tends to be be brash and cocky, is going to lead to some arbitration squabbles very soon. If Wood and Prior show signs of health, and Rich Hill continues to trend nicely, I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs made a blockbuster winter move like trading Zambrano, Patterson and a prospect for Padilla and Abreu. Is it probable? No way - relatively improbable actually. BUt would it come as a shock if it happened? Not to me.

 

Hoops,

 

Wouldn't a better scenario be to trade Zambrano and Patterson (or Dubois/Murton) to Texas for Texeria?

[badger1679666666]

Please don't trade a 27 year old pitcher that throws 97 with the capabilities of ridiculous stuff. Just don't do it. How long did it take Ryan or Schilling to reach their potential 6 years right? Kerry's had 8. If we trade him and he becomes an absolute stud all the time, I might cry. Yes I have bias, but pitchers like Wood don't grow on trees (no pun intended). You can't teach anyone his stuff.

 

And If I hear one more person talk about Wins, I'm going to have to make an educational thread on why Wins mean just about nothing. I don't want to attack posters personally, but anyone using wins as a bench mark for a pitchers effectiveness needs to read up a little bit more about baseball.

[Adebisi]

Please don't trade a 27 year old pitcher that throws 97 with the capabilities of ridiculous stuff. Just don't do it. How long did it take Ryan or Schilling to reach their potential 6 years right? Kerry's had 8. If we trade him and he becomes an absolute stud all the time, I might cry. Yes I have bias, but pitchers like Wood don't grow on trees (no pun intended). You can't teach anyone his stuff.

 

And If I hear one more person talk about Wins, I'm going to have to make an educational thread on why Wins mean just about nothing. I don't want to attack posters personally, but anyone using wins as a bench mark for a pitchers effectiveness needs to read up a little bit more about baseball.

 

Wins do mean something. They do determine whether or not you're a HOFer, and each year, they play a large hand deciding who wins the cy young each year. If you care about those sorts of things I mean. I'd hate to see Kerry go, but if it would guarantee the Cubs would stop being mediocre to sucky every year, I'd be all good with it.

 

I just wish I felt like Hendry had a real plan. Take Billy Beane for instance, whether people agree with his (and others) philosophies or not, dude knows how to build a consistent winner. Hendry seems like an awesome judge of talent, but just being a casual observer of baseball over 20 or so years, I'm not sure that just judging talent is what ultimately leads to building a winning ball club. ::unsure::

[Rusch33]

Like I stated before.. if the Cubs trade Zambrano or Prior, I'm finished..

 

They're both going to be studs if not already.

[imb]

I'd do Zambrano for Cabrera without blinking.

[1908]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs made a blockbuster winter move like trading Zambrano, Patterson and a prospect for Padilla and Abreu. Is it probable? No way - relatively improbable actually. BUt would it come as a shock if it happened? Not to me.

Will Abreu be a 5/10 guy after this season?

[ltb]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs made a blockbuster winter move like trading Zambrano, Patterson and a prospect for Padilla and Abreu. Is it probable? No way - relatively improbable actually. BUt would it come as a shock if it happened? Not to me.

Will Abreu be a 5/10 guy after this season?

 

it doesn't look like it.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/abreubo01.shtml

 

he came into the majors in 96 with houston and only played in 15 games - he only played in 59 in 1997, but has been a regular since then. that would only count as between 8 and 9 years of service at the end of this year, right?

[1908]

he came into the majors in 96 with houston and only played in 15 games - he only played in 59 in 1997, but has been a regular since then. that would only count as between 8 and 9 years of service at the end of this year, right?

I think it's time spent on the 25-man roster that counts, not games played, but I could be wrong.

[ltb]

he came into the majors in 96 with houston and only played in 15 games - he only played in 59 in 1997, but has been a regular since then. that would only count as between 8 and 9 years of service at the end of this year, right?

I think it's time spent on the 25-man roster that counts, not games played, but I could be wrong.

 

yeah, you are right, but i assumed that because of the low games played totals that he wasn't on the 25-man for the entirety of either of those seasons (and in 96 was probably just a september callup).

 

this is all just speculation, though.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

According to mlbcontracts.blogspot.com, Abreu has only 7+ years of service team going into this season.

[Magnetic Curses]

Please don't trade a 27 year old pitcher that throws 97 with the capabilities of ridiculous stuff. Just don't do it. How long did it take Ryan or Schilling to reach their potential 6 years right? Kerry's had 8. If we trade him and he becomes an absolute stud all the time, I might cry. Yes I have bias, but pitchers like Wood don't grow on trees (no pun intended). You can't teach anyone his stuff.

 

And If I hear one more person talk about Wins, I'm going to have to make an educational thread on why Wins mean just about nothing. I don't want to attack posters personally, but anyone using wins as a bench mark for a pitchers effectiveness needs to read up a little bit more about baseball.

 

Wins do mean something. They do determine whether or not you're a HOFer, and each year, they play a large hand deciding who wins the cy young each year. If you care about those sorts of things I mean. I'd hate to see Kerry go, but if it would guarantee the Cubs would stop being mediocre to sucky every year, I'd be all good with it.

 

I just wish I felt like Hendry had a real plan. Take Billy Beane for instance, whether people agree with his (and others) philosophies or not, dude knows how to build a consistent winner. Hendry seems like an awesome judge of talent, but just being a casual observer of baseball over 20 or so years, I'm not sure that just judging talent is what ultimately leads to building a winning ball club. ::unsure::

 

you talk about wins meaning something and then beane's philosophies in the next paragraph. wins mean stuff, but they only mean that the team is scoring him enough runs to get him wins, which they haven't. wood knows how to get guys out, and that's what guys like beane value.

[CubinNY]

 

And If I hear one more person talk about Wins, I'm going to have to make an educational thread on why Wins mean just about nothing. I don't want to attack posters personally, but anyone using wins as a bench mark for a pitchers effectiveness needs to read up a little bit more about baseball.

 

Why don't you do that?

[AI]

Kerry Wood is the poster boy for the argument between stats guys and for lack of a better term, results guys.

 

Stat guys see Wood's numbers compared to the other contemporary pitchers and he is at or near the top. Results guys look at the win totals, the blow up innings, the mechanics and the injuries and see a guy who has not lived up to the hype.

 

I come down somewhere in the middle of this. I do think the trade Kerry thing is pretty ridiculous because as many have already stated, his contract, no trade and family situation likely mean he isn't going anywhere.

 

As for Zambrano, I would trade him for Texeira or Cabrera in a heart beat and probably Abreu as well. The Cubs, by virtue of being a big market club can part with cheaper guys for immediate upgrades. Look no further than the Choi-Lee trade.

[HoopsCubs]

Hoops,

 

Wouldn't a better scenario be to trade Zambrano and Patterson (or Dubois/Murton) to Texas for Texeria?

 

Do you play Teixeira in the OF? I've heard from some here that he is not very good defensively in the OF, and runs the risk of getting injured if he's not playing 1B.

[XZero771679666304]

Kerry Wood is the poster boy for the argument between stats guys and for lack of a better term, results guys.

 

Stat guys see Wood's numbers compared to the other contemporary pitchers and he is at or near the top. Results guys look at the win totals, the blow up innings, the mechanics and the injuries and see a guy who has not lived up to the hype.

 

Kerry has had more games in the past few years in which he has gone 6+ innings, given up 3 or fewer runs, and lost or got a no decision than just about anybody. I was having an argument with a Cards fan who said Morris was a better pitcher even though Wood had beeter peripherals just because Matt had more wins, so I looked at the game logs from 2001-2003. I think Morris had around 10-15 starts when he went 6+ and gave up three or fewer and lost or got a ND, while Kerry, IIRC, had about 35, at least 10 of which were games he gave up zero runs.

 

This is just an example. Unless they do it at the plate PITCHERS CANNOT WIN GAMES. The way I see it, the pitchers job is to keep their team in the game as best they can, and it is encumbant on the other eight guys (nine in the AL) to win the game. You can be a filthy pitcher who rarely gives up anything and lose a ton of games because you are on a team with a lous offense. Conversely, you can be an average pitcher who gets a ton of wins because your team scores a ton of runs.

 

For a more direct example, let's look at 2003:

 

A)14-11 3.20 ERA 1.19 WHIP .203 BAA 266K 4 CG 2 SHO 22 QS

 

B)21-8 4.02 ERA 1.33 WHIP .272 BAA 180K 1 CG 0 SHO 20 QS

 

C)21-7 3.81 ERA 1.31 WHIP .223 BAA 149K 1 CG 1 SHO 19 QS

 

 

So who is the best pitcher of those three? It is quite clearly pitcher A, who many here know is Kerry Wood. The other two? Andy Pettitte and Russ Ortiz. So how did Russ and Andy win more games? Is it because they "know" how to win? No, that's BS. Here's the difference:

 

Runs of support per game:

 

Wood 4.61

Pettitte 7.02

Ortiz 6.49

 

Wood tied for 27th in wins in 2003, behind many pitchers, varying from average to downright bad, and run support is the reason. You can say the same thing for Wood in 2002 and 2001, and for many other pitchers. In any given year, you can go down the list of pitchers and see many bad pitchers with more wins than good pitchers.

 

The whole notion that good pitchers "know" how to win is ludicrous. If a pitcher gives up one or two runs and loses 1-0 or 2-1, they're not as good a pitcher who gives up six or seven and wins 7-6 or 8-7? Of course not, and only a fool would think so.

 

Again, pitchers cannot win games. The can only hold down the other team and hope their offense can win the game. Wins are simply a poor indicator of how effective a pitcher is.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Hoops,

 

Wouldn't a better scenario be to trade Zambrano and Patterson (or Dubois/Murton) to Texas for Texeria?

 

Do you play Teixeira in the OF? I've heard from some here that he is not very good defensively in the OF, and runs the risk of getting injured if he's not playing 1B.

 

He's athletic enough to play the OF. He wouldn't be any worse than Alou was out there, so yes I'd play him in left.

[HoopsCubs]

Hoops,

 

Wouldn't a better scenario be to trade Zambrano and Patterson (or Dubois/Murton) to Texas for Texeria?

 

Do you play Teixeira in the OF? I've heard from some here that he is not very good defensively in the OF, and runs the risk of getting injured if he's not playing 1B.

 

He's athletic enough to play the OF. He wouldn't be any worse than Alou was out there, so yes I'd play him in left.

 

Fair enough. Tex has a great bat. Speaking of Alou, if you get a moment please read Mike Downey's column in the Chicago Tribune and Tim Sassone's article in the Daily Herald. Alou and the Cubs clearly miss each other.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Hoops,

 

Wouldn't a better scenario be to trade Zambrano and Patterson (or Dubois/Murton) to Texas for Texeria?

 

Do you play Teixeira in the OF? I've heard from some here that he is not very good defensively in the OF, and runs the risk of getting injured if he's not playing 1B.

 

He's athletic enough to play the OF. He wouldn't be any worse than Alou was out there, so yes I'd play him in left.

 

Fair enough. Tex has a great bat. Speaking of Alou, if you get a moment please read Mike Downey's column in the Chicago Tribune and Tim Sassone's article in the Daily Herald. Alou and the Cubs clearly miss each other.

 

Do any of your sources indicate a reunion near the deadline? The only hold-up I see is that tricky option for 2006.

[HoopsCubs]

Hoops,

 

Wouldn't a better scenario be to trade Zambrano and Patterson (or Dubois/Murton) to Texas for Texeria?

 

Do you play Teixeira in the OF? I've heard from some here that he is not very good defensively in the OF, and runs the risk of getting injured if he's not playing 1B.

 

He's athletic enough to play the OF. He wouldn't be any worse than Alou was out there, so yes I'd play him in left.

 

Fair enough. Tex has a great bat. Speaking of Alou, if you get a moment please read Mike Downey's column in the Chicago Tribune and Tim Sassone's article in the Daily Herald. Alou and the Cubs clearly miss each other.

 

Do any of your sources indicate a reunion near the deadline? The only hold-up I see is that tricky option for 2006.

 

I would say less than 1% chance of a reunion. Moises has a full no trade clause, is quite upset at Hendry for not even following up with him in the offseason to see what it might take to bring him back, is now very happy playing for his father, and still believes the Giants have a shot in the 2nd half in the weak NL West.