Derrek Lee and the Diamondbacks

[Hacking Out Machine]

I'm new to NSBB(as a poster) but I've been lurking with great pleasure for a couple years. I felt compelled to throw something out there.

 

I'm not sure if this has been floated before, but I am head over heels in love with 3 prospects from the Diamondbacks: Carlos Quentin, Conor Jackson and Stephen Drew. I'm pretty sure that everyone is familiar with these guys, so I'll spare everyone the details on them.

 

Everyone knows that the name of the game is to buy low and sell high. Well, right now, Derrek Lee's trade value couldn't possibly be any higher. Obviously, I love the guy. He's easily been the best player in the game for the first half, and does everything well, on and off the field. However, his first half performance is so far over his career numbers that we can't possibly expect him to do anything other than see his production fall off, perhaps significantly. Even with his unbelieveable year, with the way the rest of this offense is constructed, we still can't score. The Cubs #1 priority right now should be to flood the roster with OBP and power. Throw in the fact that the most replaceable position on the field to replace is first base, and I think it makes sense to consider dealing D Lee, especially if it will net 2 or even three of these guys.

 

The Diamondbacks are a team that has proven that they prefer proven commodities to waiting for prospects, (see Mantei for Penny trade, et al) and they have spent a lot of resources on older players. This would suggest their future is now. With the rest of the NL West struggling, they look to be in the race for good. They are also using Chad Tracy on a regular basis at first base, so they can stand to improve there.

 

I realize we have something great with Lee, but I also think the opportunity exists to greatly improve the team in the long run. You could even explore the possibility of expanding the trade and including Patterson or some other parts the Diamondbacks could use(Rusch, Wuertz) if the Diamondbacks needed to drop salary(Luis Gonzalez). I'm just dreaming here, but I think the Cubs should explore cashing in their best chip to improve the offense for a long time.

[Nexus89]

The Cubs won't trade Lee, he's one of the core guys to the offense along with Ramirez and Barrett. The idea isn't bad (trading Lee when his value is sky high) I just really doubt Hendry would field offers for them.

[Hacking Out Machine]

Oh, I agree with you. I don't think they would ever consider trading him. I just wish they'd think about it.

[Outshined_One]

I'm not sure if this has been floated before, but I am head over heels in love with 3 prospects from the Diamondbacks: Carlos Quentin, Conor Jackson and Stephen Drew. I'm pretty sure that everyone is familiar with these guys, so I'll spare everyone the details on them.

 

With comments like these, rest assured you will fit in quite well around here. :D

 

Tim went on a bit of a rampage earlier in the season trying to figure out how to pry Carlos Quentin from the D-backs. Here are a couple of the things worth noting right now regarding that team's current state of affairs...

 

-They're in a weird position fairly similar to the Cubs. The NL West is up for grabs considering the talent in that division, but the Diamondbacks' record is not a pretty one, at 41-45. They still have the opportunity to make a run at the division, but they're going to need to acquire some big cogs to help out.

 

-The most notable area they could use improvement is in CF, where Quinton "Don't Call Me Phil" McCracken has been sharing duties with Luis "The Terrible" Terrero and Jose Cruz Jr.. All of those players are rather sub-par, needless to say. I'm unsure of what kind of interest the team would have in Corey Patterson, but I'd imagine that they'd be interested at the right price.

 

-The other area they need some help is in starting pitching, with Javier Vazquez and Brandon Webb propping up the rotation. You are correct that they might have interest in some one like Glendon Rusch, or possibly some of the younger players like Sergio Mitre and Rich Hill.

 

-As you mentioned in your post, this is a team with plenty of salary tied up in key positions, especially in RF with Gonzalez and LF/1B with Shawn Green. Unfortunately, both are blocking Quentin and Jackson and will do so for the next year. I'm not so sure that they'd be willing to axe their salary, though, considering the amount of money they threw at Troy Glaus in the offseason.

 

-If we are going to trade Lee...that would go over like a lead balloon. Even if the Cubs got Drew, Jackson, and Quentin in return. He's managed to become the top dog on this team this season and every single fan would see it as...

 

A) Surrendering all chances at the playoffs.

B) Trying to get rid of a player so they don't have to pay him.

 

In other words, it'd be a white flag trade. The last time that happened in Chicago, there was a huge uproar.

 

-Finally, I don't know what kind of interest the Diamondbacks would have with Lee. Green and Tracy both can take care of 1B duties fairly competently. They can definitely upgrade at the position and move Green into the OF, but as to whether they'd trade top prospects for Lee is unknown.

[Hacking Out Machine]

Great info, and I especially agree with you about the lead balloon part. About 5% of the Cub fan population would agree with the move, but i think that 5% would be right. I just think that the fact that a shortsighted organization having these prospects while still considering themselves contenders is an exciting proposition.Like Tim, I'll continue to try to invent ways for us to relieve them of those three, or at least one or two of them.

[Cubzfan64]

I've been a strong proponent of teams buying low and selling high for years, but the success of a theory like that is contingent on the ability of the organization to evaluate talent properly and unfortunately I don't feel the Cubs organization has enough skill in that area. The added problem of course is that there is a definite degree of luck involved in evaluating that talent as well.

 

I love Lee at 1B and was thrilled with our ability to get him, however you don't win championships with 1 or 2 star quality players on a team where everyone else is below average. If the Cubs want to build this team around Lee, Ramirez, Prior and Zambrano, that's fine with me, but then they should have been actively pursuing trades with guys like Patterson and Wood when their values were higher.

 

I just don't feel like the Cubs organization will ever have the skills necessary to play the buy low, sell high game. They've had a minimum of success doing it with Ramirez and Lee, but they've stuck with some other guys far longer than they should have.

[SCCubbieFAN]

I'm too lazy right now to look these things up so help me out. What kind of year is Gonzalez having and what is his contract status? IF he is doing better than what we currenty have in LF and IF his remaining contract is not too far out of line with the production he is giving this year and IF the Cubs decide they still want to make a run at the playoffs this year, then is Gonzalez someone worth pursuing? Would the Cubs have a package that might interest the DBacks, perhaps one that includes Patterson?

 

EDIT: Did some checking. He is hitting .286/.380/.453 in 311 AB w/11hr and 50rbi. He also has 49Ks to go with 44 walks

[Tim]

I've been a proponent of something like this. I'm not itching to trade Lee, but if we fall out of contention and could get a huge package in return for him while his value is out of whack with his true value, it would behoove the team to listen.

 

However, as much as I'd love to have Drew, he can't be traded until next May or June (1 yr after he signed with the team).

 

A package of Jackson and Quentin would be very, very nice, though.

[kylescubs23]

The idea of trading Patterson to the D-Backs is an interesting one. Would a package of Corey and a pitcher be enough to get Quentin? Like people said earlier, he is blocked by Gonzalez and Green through at least next year. Could he be our everyday LF now or would he need more time in the minors? His numbers have been great all year.

 

Hairston

Walker

Lee

Burnitz

Ramirez

Quentin

Barrett

Cedeno (pipedream)

 

I don't think we're going to win anything this year anyway and a change of scenery for Corey is probably what is needed.

[dime]

in a video game or ootp, trading lee is a smart move.

 

in reality, it would simply be a catastrophe. you think team morale is bad now? go trade lee for a band of AA players and see how that goes over...as for the fans, even cub fans have limits. the tribune has been trying to fight the cheapskate label the last couple years by raising payroll, a move like this would submarine these efforts forever.

[Cubzfan64]

in a video game or ootp, trading lee is a smart move.

 

in reality, it would simply be a catastrophe. you think team morale is bad now? go trade lee for a band of AA players and see how that goes over...as for the fans, even cub fans have limits. the tribune has been trying to fight the cheapskate label the last couple years by raising payroll, a move like this would submarine these efforts forever.

 

I agree with what Tim said - you consider moving Lee when his value is far higher than it ever has been IF/WHEN your team is out of contention. If you think your team has a shot at it, then I guess you don't pull that trigger. Personally I disagree with a number of people on these boards in believing that this team is 1 or 2 key players away from a championship caliber team - maybe short term we could get over the hump with 1 or 2 key players, but no way is this team 1-2 key players away from a consistent playoff bound team.

[dime]

you don't blow up a team that has mark prior, carlos zambrano and aramis ramirez on it.

 

trading lee for prospects signals to everyone that you've given up, which means you'll have no shot at signing any top FAs for the next couple years, and you probably won't be able to retain prior/zambrano/whomever when their contracts run out...and for what?

 

for the hope that in three years one or two of these prospects might be half as good as lee is right now?

 

it's a stupid move any way you slice it. this is not tampa bay.

[BigbadB]

The Diamondbacks fell for that trick once before. They traded 6 guys for Richie Sexson and boy did that ever backfire. The set up is almost exactly the same as the Sexson deal. Lee will be getting ready for the last year of his contract. The Cubs would want several players in return.

 

I'm not sure the Cubs could put proper value on Lee or get proper value for what he currently provides this team. The small things he does cannot be replaced. The error's and potential runs he has saved Aramis at 3rd base is just one of those things.

 

Aramis is a much better 3b than the guy we originally traded for. But Derrek has certainly helped with that. There are still a lot of errant throws that Derrek gets to that a typical 1b would not.

 

Do I want Conor Jackson and Carlos Quentin? Sure. I wouldn't mind having Chad Tracy too. How is Sergio Santos doing these days?

 

But, I doubt Arizona trades anymore than 1 of those guys. I think the Cubs could be players for one of those guys using Glendon Rusch and others as the bait. It will take more than just Glendon, but Arizona would probably be most interested in pitching anyway.

[BigbadB]

With Dusty at the helm, it would behoove Hendry to trade for any prospects at this time. Something else will need to happen first before any veteran for prospect trades go down. I think we all know what that something is.

[HoopsCubs]

I'm too lazy right now to look these things up so help me out. What kind of year is Gonzalez having and what is his contract status? IF he is doing better than what we currenty have in LF and IF his remaining contract is not too far out of line with the production he is giving this year and IF the Cubs decide they still want to make a run at the playoffs this year, then is Gonzalez someone worth pursuing? Would the Cubs have a package that might interest the DBacks, perhaps one that includes Patterson?

 

EDIT: Did some checking. He is hitting .286/.380/.453 in 311 AB w/11hr and 50rbi. He also has 49Ks to go with 44 walks

 

Luis is making $10M this year and $11.5M in 2006. There is a club option for 2007, but you figure he'll become a free agent after the 2006 season. With Sosa, Hawkins, Remlinger off the books after this season, and potentially some of Burnitz, Walker, Hollandsworth, Garciaparra and Rusch gone too, $11.5M is affordable in 2006.

[Tim]

you don't blow up a team that has mark prior, carlos zambrano and aramis ramirez on it.

 

trading lee for prospects signals to everyone that you've given up, which means you'll have no shot at signing any top FAs for the next couple years, and you probably won't be able to retain prior/zambrano/whomever when their contracts run out...and for what?

 

for the hope that in three years one or two of these prospects might be half as good as lee is right now?

 

it's a stupid move any way you slice it. this is not tampa bay.

I guess the question is whether you believe (or more importantly, if Hendry believes) that Lee actually has made a huge performance breakthrough at age 29 or if he's way over his true ceiling right now. If Lee's going to fall back to his norms from the last three years, and if someone's willing to give up talent for him as if he's truly the kind of hitter he's been so far this year...then it would increase the overall amount of talent on the team to trade him and would make perfect sense from a baseball perspective.

 

Explaining that to the average fan, however, is something different.

[erik316wttn]

in a video game or ootp, trading lee is a smart move.

 

in reality, it would simply be a catastrophe. you think team morale is bad now? go trade lee for a band of AA players and see how that goes over...as for the fans, even cub fans have limits. the tribune has been trying to fight the cheapskate label the last couple years by raising payroll, a move like this would submarine these efforts forever.

 

I think it's harder to move Lee right now than some of you would think. Oh, sure, a ton of teams would be calling Hendry 24 hours a day if they thought for a minute that Lee was going to be put on the market, however, he has become a big time fan-favorite in Chicago and the fans would rebel, IMO.

 

It's always tricky trading a fan favorite.

[dime]

were not talking about george bell on the 91 cubs...and you can't compare lee to richie sexson on the brewers a couple years ago either...

 

DERREK LEE COULD WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN THIS YEAR.

 

apparently some of us have forgotten, which is understandable considering the team's inconsistent play. but my god, it's not like he's just an all-star or something. he's the best hitter in the entire league, and a gold glover on top of that!

 

it's true that lee is unlikely to ever hit this well again, but do you want to take that chance? the risk of trading him is that he continues to hit like pujols for the next 4 years or so...and again, for what? a few AA players who, if everything works out perfectly, could result in one, *maybe* two all-star players in 6 years? the odds of that happening are probably less than lee continuing to be a dominant offensive player.

 

the risk-reward analysis fails to justify any trade involving lee.

[Tim]

were not talking about george bell on the 91 cubs...and you can't compare lee to richie sexson on the brewers a couple years ago either...

 

DERREK LEE COULD WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN THIS YEAR.

 

apparently some of us have forgotten, which is understandable considering the team's inconsistent play. but my god, it's not like he's just an all-star or something. he's the best hitter in the entire league, and a gold glover on top of that!

 

it's true that lee is unlikely to ever hit this well again, but do you want to take that chance? the risk of trading him is that he continues to hit like pujols for the next 4 years or so...and again, for what? a few AA players who, if everything works out perfectly, could result in one, *maybe* two all-star players in 6 years? the odds of that happening are probably less than lee continuing to be a dominant offensive player.

 

the risk-reward analysis fails to justify any trade involving lee.

Well, it depends upon probabilities. If you think Lee is highly unlikely to continue his performance and is very likely to revert back to a .280/.370/.480 hitter, then trading him now makes sense.

 

If you think there's a 90% chance that two of the three players you pick up can turn into all-stars within a few years at a very cheap price, then it makes a lot of sense.

 

There's a pretty simple risk/reward matrix to set up here to evaluate the payoffs, but the right decision to make is entirely dependent upon the probabilities you assign to each potential outcome.

[Hacking Out Machine]

were not talking about george bell on the 91 cubs...and you can't compare lee to richie sexson on the brewers a couple years ago either...

 

DERREK LEE COULD WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN THIS YEAR.

 

apparently some of us have forgotten, which is understandable considering the team's inconsistent play. but my god, it's not like he's just an all-star or something. he's the best hitter in the entire league, and a gold glover on top of that!

 

it's true that lee is unlikely to ever hit this well again, but do you want to take that chance? the risk of trading him is that he continues to hit like pujols for the next 4 years or so...and again, for what? a few AA players who, if everything works out perfectly, could result in one, *maybe* two all-star players in 6 years? the odds of that happening are probably less than lee continuing to be a dominant offensive player.

 

the risk-reward analysis fails to justify any trade involving lee.

 

 

As long as Neifi Perez is hitting at the top of the order, Lee has no chance at the triple crown. Absolutely zero.

 

Quentin and Jackson are currently pasting Triple A pitching. They are both ready today. They are not a couple of AA players who are 6 years away from significant contribution. I tend to think that Derrek Lee's probability of regressing to the mean is very high. I'd be more comfortable predicting a future performace more in line with 7 years of past performance, rather than 3 months.

 

Don't get me wrong. I love DLee. Power and OBP are without a doubt the most important aspects of a championship offense, and I think the concept of strong defense at 1st is vastly underrated. Having said that, the possibility of adding more power and OBP for a player likely to regress to the mean makes sense to me. Especially when 1B is the easiest position to replace. Sure Jay Marriotti and Caller Joe from Arlington Heights would cry a river, but forgive me if I'm not too worried about that.

 

Who am I kidding? This trade would never happen anyway. I just think it's certainly logical to consider it.

[Mark_R]

I didn't see this thread this morning, but I asked my friend this evening about a deal involving Derrek Lee (for reasons stated in this thread, value will never be higher, etc) for Andy Marte, Jeff Franceour, and Adam LaRoche.

 

I think that would put Atlanta in a real strong position to make a legit run at a WS with the two guys they have at the top of the rotation and Lee to add along with the Jones', Giles, Furcal, Estrada, Langerhans, Johnson, et al.

[Hacking Out Machine]

I didn't see this thread this morning, but I asked my friend this evening about a deal involving Derrek Lee (for reasons stated in this thread, value will never be higher, etc) for Andy Marte, Jeff Franceour, and Adam LaRoche.

 

I think that would put Atlanta in a real strong position to make a legit run at a WS with the two guys they have at the top of the rotation and Lee to add along with the Jones', Giles, Furcal, Estrada, Langerhans, Johnson, et al.

 

Ask them to throw in Julio Franco! Just kidding.

[dime]

I'd be interested to read the last time a group of 3 minor leaguers was traded, in which 2 of them became consistent (not scott cooper) all-stars. I certainly can't think of any such trade off the top of my head.

[Hacking Out Machine]

I'd be interested to read the last time a group of 3 minor leaguers was traded, in which 2 of them became consistent (not scott cooper) all-stars. I certainly can't think of any such trade off the top of my head.

 

I think you're asking a lot to get 2 "consistent" all stars in one trade. I don't think anyone is saying that these guys are going to be consistent all stars, i.e. Derrek Lee has been solid for many years and this is his first all star game. I think they can potentially be that, but more likely solid above average major leaguers.

 

Off the top of my head, if you want to talk about borderline all stars/solid major leaguers, how about Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama for Randy Johnson? That trade happened in 1998, and all three are still in the majors. You can make a case that both Guillen and Garcia are all star caliber. Halama had some solid years as well.

 

Also, Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe were traded for Heathcliff Slocumb. I think both of those guys have made all star teams. I'm sure some other people will come up with more....