A new trade approach: move Dempster

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I am of the firm belief that this team needs to be a seller, and start making moves that will make the team stronger for 2006. To do so, you begin addressing anticipated weaknesses, and deal valuable pieces that you feel are replaceable.

 

I suggest the Cubs trade Ryan Dempster; and if I include another pitcher like (say) Sergio, I'd like to send them to Boston for Hanley Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis.

 

First: I love how Dempster has performed as closer. Terrific! Now be objective about this--did anyone really expect it? More important, does anyone think he can continue it? I don't. His career evidence suggests he won't either. This is a classic opportunity to sell high.

 

Boston needs a closer, they are competing to repeat their championship, and Foulke is faltering badly. They'll overpay for a closer. They'll overpay for Dempster.

 

We do not have Dempster under contract for 2006, and if (as I presume) the Cubs sign BJ Ryan or Billy Wagner this offseason, do we even need Dempster? We'll have Williamson (under contract), Novoa, Wuertz, Aardsma, Van Buren, Ohman already in-house.

 

Meanwhile, we address needs. Ramirez can be our SS for the next ten years. People keep saying Boston will never trade him, but they just gave a long-term contract to Edgar Renteria, there's no room at the inn for Ramirez. Ditto for Youkilis, who has yet to gain steady PT from the Sox. These guys are both OBP monsters, and could be our DP combo for the rest of the decade. Lord knows we could use the OBP ability in our pathetic lineup.

 

Further, this allows us to sell high with Cedeno and get other needed parts in later trades.

 

Just trying to think out loud in this "seller's mode" here.....Dempster is a valuable chip, Hendry doesn't have the guts, but I'd trade him right here, right now. We'll get good pieces in return.

[fearthecubs]

I actually really support this idea, and I adore Dempster. I just don't think its realistic, but still, it IS a good idea. I dont necessarily think acquiring Hanley Ramirez is the best idea since we have Cedeno however. Maybe Millar (LF) instead?

[Backtobanks]

I doubt very much whether we could get Youklis and Ramirez for Mitre and Dempster. If we could, I would make that trade in a heartbeat. Also, you might be able to slide Cedeno over to 2nd when Walker leaves.

[sweetpeteman]

I would do it even if we could only get Ramirez, because even then we are okay. Cedeno can either shift to 2nd or left, or could be trade bait.

 

Heh, an infield of, left to right, Ramirez, Ramirez, Cedeno and Lee would probably be killer for years...

[Iceblink]

Giving up the only guy who's closed games for us in 2 years would be giving up on the season, and neither Baker nor Hendry would do that - even if it has only been 2 months since Dempster started closingt.

 

Dempster does have value, but I'd be surprised if Boston would give up Ramirez for him. If you had Ramirez, would you trade him for a guy with 14 career saves?

[RynoRules]

Not a bad idea. I am not ready to throw in the towel on the season just yet, but if I were, that's a good deal.

[katway]

I like the trade from a Cubs perspective, but I don't see Boston easily parting with their premiere kids in a single trade.

[biittner77]

You'd probably have to replace Mitre with Zambrano to make that trade happen. Or make it Ramirez only for Dempster and Mitre.

 

The Sox *might* trade one or the other but not both unless it was for someone that they really liked. I've been hearing about Youlkis for 3 years now and I'm not even a Sox fan. Imagine how Red Sox nation would react. It would be like the Cubs trading Felix Pie.

 

In any case it's hard to imagine the Cubs being sellers anyway. I don't believe it's a given that they will sign a closer in the offseason. Unless they want to see him closing games for the Red Sox, The Orioles should lock up Ryan soon. I'm not sure how much Wagner has left. Closers have a nasty habit of losing it pretty quickly. Unless they felt really good about one of their in house candidates- Novoa, Aardsma, etc. I don't see them moving Dempster.

 

Rusch on the other hand I could see being traded provided that someone was willing to overpay for him. Anyone else the Cubs might consider trading nets very little in return.

[HoopsCubs]

I am of the firm belief that this team needs to be a seller, and start making moves that will make the team stronger for 2006. To do so, you begin addressing anticipated weaknesses, and deal valuable pieces that you feel are replaceable.

 

I suggest the Cubs trade Ryan Dempster; and if I include another pitcher like (say) Sergio, I'd like to send them to Boston for Hanley Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis.

 

First: I love how Dempster has performed as closer. Terrific! Now be objective about this--did anyone really expect it? More important, does anyone think he can continue it? I don't. His career evidence suggests he won't either. This is a classic opportunity to sell high.

 

Boston needs a closer, they are competing to repeat their championship, and Foulke is faltering badly. They'll overpay for a closer. They'll overpay for Dempster.

 

We do not have Dempster under contract for 2006, and if (as I presume) the Cubs sign BJ Ryan or Billy Wagner this offseason, do we even need Dempster? We'll have Williamson (under contract), Novoa, Wuertz, Aardsma, Van Buren, Ohman already in-house.

 

Meanwhile, we address needs. Ramirez can be our SS for the next ten years. People keep saying Boston will never trade him, but they just gave a long-term contract to Edgar Renteria, there's no room at the inn for Ramirez. Ditto for Youkilis, who has yet to gain steady PT from the Sox. These guys are both OBP monsters, and could be our DP combo for the rest of the decade. Lord knows we could use the OBP ability in our pathetic lineup.

 

Further, this allows us to sell high with Cedeno and get other needed parts in later trades.

 

Just trying to think out loud in this "seller's mode" here.....Dempster is a valuable chip, Hendry doesn't have the guts, but I'd trade him right here, right now. We'll get good pieces in return.

 

It's well thought out Don, but I don't see the Cubs moving Dempster. Not only is he a clubhouse leader, but he has shown the ability to close games at a fairly attractive price - one of my sources guessed recently that the Cubs will soon be working on an extension for Dempster at a fairly reasonable price. I think Hendry is trying to unload Patterson, Remlinger, Mitre and Rusch.

[dime]

the red sox would never, ever do that trade. I don't think they'd trade either of those guys, let alone both, let alone for a pair like dempster and mitre.

[TB_11]

I doudt we'd be able to get Ramirez out of the deal. It'd be a great trade, but there's no way the Red Sox would give up that much when they could find an equally adequate reliever/closer without giving up two of their main young guys.

[BigbadB]

Kelly Shoppach seems to be the Red Sox number #1 trade prospect. Varitek has him blocked for the remainder of Shoppach's prime years.

[imb]

Why do we want Youklis? He'd never see the field here.

 

Unless you said to turn him around and trade him, and I just missed it.

[10man]

You'd probably have to replace Mitre with Zambrano to make that trade happen.

I'd rather trade Wood than Zambrano.

[goonys evil twin]

If the Cubs keep floundering, I'd have no problem trading Dempster. But I take issue with the idea that his success as a closer is a complete surprise, and do not think for a second that he's bound to crash. Personally I thought he was a good comparison to Isringhausen, when he made the conversion.

[ltb]

you think we could get hanley ramirez for that package?

 

hahahahahaha

[Magnetic Curses]

If the Cubs keep floundering, I'd have no problem trading Dempster. But I take issue with the idea that his success as a closer is a complete surprise, and do not think for a second that he's bound to crash. Personally I thought he was a good comparison to Isringhausen, when he made the conversion.

 

i'd have a problem trading him due to the fact that he'll be a lot cheaper than wagner or ryan and would allow us to spend money at more important spots.

[biittner77]

You'd probably have to replace Mitre with Zambrano to make that trade happen.

I'd rather trade Wood than Zambrano.

 

I meant to put this in the original post. Trading Wood is problematic due to his no trade clause and his history of injuries. It would be nearly impossible to get full value for Wood but much easier in the case of Zambrano.

 

I should also point out that I wouldn't trade either of them.

[Fanzones trumpet]

If the Cubs keep floundering, I'd have no problem trading Dempster. But I take issue with the idea that his success as a closer is a complete surprise, and do not think for a second that he's bound to crash. Personally I thought he was a good comparison to Isringhausen, when he made the conversion.

 

I don't see any point in trading him unless you think his performance to date is a fluke. You'd just be back in the same boat next year trying to fill a critical position that the Cubs have been trying to fill long-term for 20 years, and likely overpaying to do it. One of the positives from this year is that the Cubs may be able to build a very good bullpen for next year for less than $10 million, which is less than what they're paying Hawkins, Remlinger and Borowski this year.

[goonys evil twin]

If the Cubs keep floundering, I'd have no problem trading Dempster. But I take issue with the idea that his success as a closer is a complete surprise, and do not think for a second that he's bound to crash. Personally I thought he was a good comparison to Isringhausen, when he made the conversion.

 

I don't see any point in trading him unless you think his performance to date is a fluke. You'd just be back in the same boat next year trying to fill a critical position that the Cubs have been trying to fill long-term for 20 years, and likely overpaying to do it. One of the positives from this year is that the Cubs may be able to build a very good bullpen for next year for less than $10 million, which is less than what they're paying Hawkins, Remlinger and Borowski this year.

 

You wouldn't be in the same boat. For one, you'd have Williamson available. But more importantly, you'll have a lot more money to play with than Hendry had this offseason. JoBo, Latroy, Remlinger and Dempster would all be off the books from the bullpen. Then of course the Sosa money would be free. The more success Dempster has this season, the more expensive he'll be in the offseason. One way or another you'll be paying a high price for relief help. I'm not talking about just letting the guy go. But if the closer market heats up this month, and the Cubs fall out of the hunt, they shouldn't turn down all requests for Dempster just because they've had bad luck looking for closers recently. Remember, this is a team that has employed about 8 of the top 20 saves guys in the history of the sport. It's not impossible to find guys to fill the spot, in spite of all the angst between 2004 and earlier this year.

[davecubsfan]

Boston has talked about trying Ramirez out in Center after Damon leaves, and moving Renteria to second and playing Hanley at Short. That package wouldn't net us Youks alone, much less one or the other or both.

[Fanzones trumpet]

If the Cubs keep floundering, I'd have no problem trading Dempster. But I take issue with the idea that his success as a closer is a complete surprise, and do not think for a second that he's bound to crash. Personally I thought he was a good comparison to Isringhausen, when he made the conversion.

 

I don't see any point in trading him unless you think his performance to date is a fluke. You'd just be back in the same boat next year trying to fill a critical position that the Cubs have been trying to fill long-term for 20 years, and likely overpaying to do it. One of the positives from this year is that the Cubs may be able to build a very good bullpen for next year for less than $10 million, which is less than what they're paying Hawkins, Remlinger and Borowski this year.

 

You wouldn't be in the same boat. For one, you'd have Williamson available. But more importantly, you'll have a lot more money to play with than Hendry had this offseason. JoBo, Latroy, Remlinger and Dempster would all be off the books from the bullpen. Then of course the Sosa money would be free. The more success Dempster has this season, the more expensive he'll be in the offseason. One way or another you'll be paying a high price for relief help. I'm not talking about just letting the guy go. But if the closer market heats up this month, and the Cubs fall out of the hunt, they shouldn't turn down all requests for Dempster just because they've had bad luck looking for closers recently. Remember, this is a team that has employed about 8 of the top 20 saves guys in the history of the sport. It's not impossible to find guys to fill the spot, in spite of all the angst between 2004 and earlier this year.

 

At this point, you don't know how effective Williamson will be; in fact I'm not aware of any pitcher who's had 2 Tommy John surgeries and been effective. Dempster shouldn't be too expensive--4-5 million. There's no guarantee the Cubs could get Ryan or Wagner (who's contemplating retirement), and even if they did, it would cost them much more than Dempster. Right now, it looks like the Cubs are gonna have to replace their entire OF next year. Why not husband all resources towards improving that area, and building a first rate bench?

[biittner77]

Suppose the Cubs did decide to rebuild and make some big changes. Who do they have to trade and what could they get?

 

Keepers

Wood, Prior, Zambrano,Williams

Wuertz, Ohman, Dempster, Novoa

 

Ramirez, Lee, Barrett, Cedeno

 

Players that are difficult/ not worth trading:

Maddux- has no trade rights plus that vesting option.

Patterson- value at an all time low

Macias- does anyone besides Baker like this guy?

Hollandsworth- how much would teams pay for a 4th OF/ PH?

Dubois- hard to get much value for him at this point

 

Value to contenders

Walker- provides power from a defense first position

Hairston- can lead off

Remlinger- there has to be a team desparate enough

Rusch- could be very attractive

Perez- he's versatile and has shown he can fill in. He'd be a good role player on a team that didn't need him to start

 

Value to cellar dwellers

Mitre, Wellemeyer , Dubois

 

Have to keep either Hairston or Walker. That leaves Rusch and Walker as the best firesale type trading chips.

[mhuber92211]

I understadn the thought of dealing Dempster and selling high but to expect Hanley Ramirez for him is like seeing the Red Sox suddenly becoming the Mets. Besides, I would rater be interested in other parts of the Red Sox. Wee Need OF help ore then we need 2 infielders. If we were to sell high with Dempster it would make better sense to address a need and not get the best prospect on the team.