By Starting Jordan Wicks, Cubs Keep Losing Games on Purpose

[Brian Kelder]

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Sunday, May 31. The Cubs faithful sit in front of the screen, tuning in to NBC or Peacock, looking forward to a rivalry tilt against the Cardinals. High off of Pete Crow-Armstrong's epic Saturday night, momentum is there to be seized.

All optimism was destroyed after looking at the starting pitcher. Jordan Wicks was tasked with taking the mound. Momentum is the next day's starting pitcher, and this one was a brick wall—a stopper, but for a winning streak, rather than a losing one.

A competitive team like the Cubs cannot keep giving starts to guys that they clearly have no faith in. They (rightfully) distrust Jordan Wicks, and he proved that distrust correct, failing to reach the third inning and allowing three runs. After his even more disastrous first start, his ERA sits at an incredible 15.63. 

These were two throwaway starts, and a game or two can make a huge difference when the calendar flips to September. Don't get me wrong: Jordan Wicks isn't to blame. Jed Hoyer and the Cubs' failure to develop pitching depth are. 

But it's the injuries, right? No team can weather such a storm? Well, look north up I-94, and there's a perfect example. The Milwaukee Brewers, faced with a similar crunch on April 7 of last year, made an under-the-radar deal for Quinn Priester from the Boston Red Sox. He was more than solid; he finished 13-3 with a 3.32 ERA in his 24 starts. The Brewers saw a need, identified a target, and used excess prospects to get the player in, and it helped them to a first-place finish.

This year, they are facing similar struggles—and are winning the division. Brandon Woodruff and young prospect Logan Henderson are on the shelf, and prize trade return Brandon Sproat (obtained for Freddy Peralta) was just called out from his manager with his current 6.24 ERA. But Coleman Crow has filled in with two solid starts and Chad Patrick with six (2.60 ERA overall). They can thrive in adversity, because they have built tremendous depth from the bottom of the minors to the major-league squad.

The Brewers also went back to the well in Boston and traded for Kyle Harrison. Perhaps Boston needs to evaluate their trade process, and avoid Milwaukee? Harrison has been electric, pitching to a 1.57 ERA with 61 strikeouts in 51 innings so far. They dealt extra third baseman Chad Durbin for Harrison, a clear win already. By the by, they also got Shane Drohan, who made a strong (though short) start in their win Monday night, in that same deal. What the Brewers do is identify pitching depth and extract maximum value of the pitchers others overlook. It's the secret sauce to their recent stretch of division dominance.

The Cubs, conversely, have not been able to build any pitching depth or develop healthy arms in their system. Jaxon Wiggins, currently injured, is their only top-10 organizational prospect who's a pitcher. Twenty of their top 30 prospects are hitters, and five of the pitchers who show up are in the 20-30 range for the system. Cade Horton had graduated, but the team couldn't figure out a way to outrun his injuries. Unlike other teams, they have zero arms they can call on from the minors to come up and compete.

Compounding this issue is the inability to keep arms healthy. Cade Horton is already done this season and much of next, and Justin Steele is trending in that direction. Edward Cabrera has had diminished stuff as a Cub, as well as a blister issue keeping him on the IL. We've already discussed the lack of options in the minors. The Cubs need to be able to generate Chad Patrick-level players, at minimum, to win division titles. This has been their issue for years.

Trading for an arm is also problematic. The Cubs don't have an excess of prospects from which to deal from MLB.com 23rd ranked system. They cannot afford to deal Moisés Ballesteros or Matt Shaw. They're too important to the team, regardless of slumps or injuries. And nobody else in the system is exciting enough to entice a team to jump. Cam Smith and Owen Caissie were dealt (for what now feel like underwhelming returns) already. The Cubs do have a few prospects, but none of the major ones are at all expendable; they're the only hope for the Cubs to develop a homegrown core.

That's what made Sunday's game so frustrating. Wicks is a symptom of the disease plaguing the Cubs front office. When in desperate need of a major league-quality arm for a start or two, the team with playoff aspirations had nowhere else to turn. For a decade, the Cubs have struggled to produce the pitching depth the Brewers seem to effortlessly churn out. Until that changes, Wicks won't be the last emergency starter trotted out into an impossible situation.

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[gflore34]

Still trying to figure out what made Wicks a 1st round draft choice, there must have been something, right?

Edited 2 hours ago by gflore34

[Matthew Trueblood]

8 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Still trying to figure out what made Wicks a 1st round draft choice, there must have been something, right?

It's easy to forget, but the guy they drafted definitely had a plus changeup. In remaking his delivery to get to more velocity and to throw four-seamers instead of sinkers, he both started getting hurt a lot and lost that change, I think. 

But yeah, it's a pretty clear mistake. Taken within six picks, right after him: Gavin Williams, Colson Montgomery, Jackson Merrill. The Cubs flubbed that one.

[gflore34]

3 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

It's easy to forget, but the guy they drafted definitely had a plus changeup. In remaking his delivery to get to more velocity and to throw four-seamers instead of sinkers, he both started getting hurt a lot and lost that change, I think. 

But yeah, it's a pretty clear mistake. Taken within six picks, right after him: Gavin Williams, Colson Montgomery, Jackson Merrill. The Cubs flubbed that one.

That's completely sense-less, taking away the pitch that made him attractive in the first place?  It's beyond stupid.

[Matthew Trueblood]

38 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

That's completely sense-less, taking away the pitch that made him attractive in the first place?  It's beyond stupid.

FWIW: I don't *think* it was the Cubs' idea. And it wasn't the goal when Wicks made those changes. He thought he'd be able to change his body and his delivery and add good things, without losing the strengths he already had. Some pitchers succeed at that! Unfortunately, he didn't—which does have to fall at least partly at the feet of the Cubs.

[Brian Kelder]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

Still trying to figure out what made Wicks a 1st round draft choice, there must have been something, right?

I shoulda wrote how Colson Montgomery went right after him. Doh!