Cubs (Taillon) vs Padres (Waldron): 4/29/26, 3:10pm

[BKHoo]

It looks like Wodruff left early for the Brewers.  His velocity was in the mid 80s when he left. 

[chibears55]

Mets released Carl Edward,  wouldn't surprise me if Hoyer gives him a call

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Mets released Carl Edward,  wouldn't surprise me if Hoyer gives him a call

It would me. He is done.

[Stratos]

On 4/29/2026 at 5:47 PM, JHBulls said:

Love that umpires give players 2 seconds to ABS challenge a balls or strike call, but they give managers a seemingly unlimited amount of time to challenge any other umpire decision. 

I was very impressed by the Padres catcher who ran after a loose ball in the dirt while tapping his head with a runner at 3rd because he had to get the challenge off.

[Stratos]

On 4/29/2026 at 6:15 PM, Rcal10 said:

Even harder to complain about 7 innings. He will win a lot of games only giving up 3 runs in 7 innings. 

Impressive recovery for Taillon.  I thought he was toast when the homers were hit 

[Geographyhater8888]

19 hours ago, CubUgly said:

You would think water will find its level eventually in this regard, but we've seen years and examples where it never does.   Which is why some folks have a hard time leaning all in on analytics. 

Analytics say that the team with 3 solo home runs and 15 baserunners for only 3 runs, despite losing 4-3, was better than their opponent with only 1 hit and 3 walks all scoring on a grandslam.

They’re correct regardless of what the win column says. It’s an extreme example but calling calling it flawed as a predictive model (not you of course) is nonsense.

Edited 3 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[CubUgly]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Analytics say that the team with 3 solo home runs and 15 baserunners for only 3 runs, despite losing 4-3, was better than their opponent with only 1 hit and 3 walks all scoring on a grandslam.

They’re correct regardless of what the win column says. It’s an extreme example but calling calling it flawed as a predictive model (not you of course) is nonsense.

I didn't say it was a flawed model - just said we've seen teams even through a full season that belie the metrics and end up finishing better than teams that have significantly higher run differential even over 162 games - and it's why some folks don't lean all in on analytics.  It's a good predictive tool you are correct and it's not a flawed model, it's just not perfect.  None are.  There is just nuance and baseball is about as random a sport as there is and as much as we try to boil it all down to numbers and stats, that randomness rears its head constantly.

But it gives us endless points of discussion, which is what makes baseball so great to me. 

[Geographyhater8888]

11 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

I didn't say it was a flawed model - just said we've seen teams even through a full season that belie the metrics and end up finishing better than teams that have significantly higher run differential even over 162 games - and it's why some folks don't lean all in on analytics.  It's a good predictive tool you are correct and it's not a flawed model, it's just not perfect.  None are.  There is just nuance and baseball is about as random a sport as there is and as much as we try to boil it all down to numbers and stats, that randomness rears its head constantly.

But it gives us endless points of discussion, which is what makes baseball so great to me. 

Yes. The 2023 NL wild card race was an all timer. The 82-80 Padres (+104) with 44 fWAR (92 predictive wins), 83-79 Cubs at +96 and a 41 fWAR (89 wins), D Backs and Marlins with 84 a piece at -18 and -57 and 33 and 29 fWARs. Until clutch hitting or other intangibles can ever be quantified then analytics will never get it 100% right. And neither of those teams exactly had any intangibles, just the Cubs and Padres choke factor.
 

I just don’t know how you can award extra wins to high leverage relief or clutch hitting outside of World Series winning odds without subtracting war from the runners who got on base in order to to be put into a situation to score runs.

Edited 1 hour ago by Geographyhater8888