After Strong Cluster of Small Moves, Cubs Well-Positioned for Big-Game Hunting

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The Cubs were interested in Michael King at the outset of this offseason. After they got a sense of his initial asking price (approaching $100 million on a four-year deal, according to one source), they backed away, but once it was clear that King wouldn't net quite that rich a contract, they circled back to him. Ultimately, King re-signed with the Padres Thursday night, on a remarkably player-friendly deal that guarantees him up to $75 million over three years and gives him the right to opt out after either of the first two.

A source familiar with the team's thinking said they were open to signing King on a short-term deal, but were unwilling to offer him both that high an annual average value and the pair of opt-outs that enticed him to return to San Diego. That's a sensible stance. King is coming off a season disrupted by injury, and his health history is spotty. He passed a physical to finalize his deal with the Padres, but the risk the team is assuming on that deal is a bit unwieldy, from the Cubs' perspective.

This is the luxury the team has afforded itself, with the holidays looming and big names coming off the board but some desirable options left. By signing relievers Phil Maton, Caleb Thielbar and Hoby Milner and right-handed slugger Tyler Austin on low-cost deals, Jed Hoyer has set a floor that allows him to eschew further additions to the bullpen or the bench until he resolves more pressing business. He has roughly $40 million in 2026 salary available to him, if the right opportunities are there, but he's bought the ability to be patient and take a strong negotiating position.

Before he signed with the Phillies for $22 million over two years, Brad Keller came to the Cubs and expressed a willingness to sign for less, according to two sources with knowledge of the conversation. The Cubs passed. They were not serious suitors for Luke Weaver, either, as he signed a similar deal with the Mets. Though they would still welcome improvements to their relief corps, the club now has its sights set on upgrading the lineup and the front half of the starting rotation, and they believe their current depth allows them to keep their focus there until they get resolution of situations just like the one that transpired with King.

Among players still on the market, Zac Gallen and Tatsuya Imai are highest on the Cubs' radar as starters; they prefer those players (at their expected prices) to Ranger Suárez or Framber Valdez. They're also staying in the mix for four position players of note, sources said.

It's down to the last three days of Munetaka Murakami's posting period, and the offers the left-handed slugger hoped would materialize are not forthcoming. Initially looking for $200 million or more on a long-term deal, Murakami is increasingly open to shorter-term deals that could include opt-outs and/or club options to convert an initial contract worth under $100 million into something more lucrative. The Cubs have been in contact with Murakami's agent, Casey Close, about the possibility of such a deal. They're also keeping tabs on the market for fellow impending Japanese import Kazuma Okamoto, whose market has developed slowly but who is expected to get a robust offer once Murakami signs and the picture crystallizes for teams still seeking a right-handed bat.

The other two players the team has shown interest in, according to a league source, are extremely familiar names to Cubs fans: Alex Bregman and Cody Bellinger. Agent Scott Boras has been dissatisfied with the offers for both hitters thus far, though Bellinger is expected to wait out the market and sign sometime in January, anyway. The arguments for and against signing either player are well-documented, by now, but the Cubs are taking an opportunistic stance on each—as well as on Gallen, Imai, Murakami and Okamoto.

In all likelihood, the team will only sign one of those six players. They would be stretching their budget near its breaking point to land more than one, and they generally prefer to keep some powder dry into mid-January. No matter which of their targets they sign, though, they should be left with some surplus talent on their roster, and Hoyer could then try to land a second difference-making player via trade. Signing Bregman, Murakami or Okamoto could beget a trade sending Matt Shaw elsewhere for pitching help. Signing Bellinger could free up Owen Caissie or Moisés Ballesteros to be dealt. 

One way or another, the Cubs will land a big fish, and they're likely to do it soon. They've passed on some opportunities already, believing a better one is waiting for them and that their small, early moves this winter have given them the leverage to hold out. That's a bit of a tightrope act, but by now (for better or worse), Hoyer is comfortable on that wire.

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[Jason Ross]

I keep coming back to the thought that this is lining up very well to be the team standing at the end of Tatsuya Imai. I know I'm a high-man on him, but it just feels like the most "Cub" move on a longer-term deal that I've seen in a while, maybe since Swanson, now that I better understand the operating procedures of the Cubs. 

[CubinNY]

Kind of picked the wrong picture. 

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I keep coming back to the thought that this is lining up very well to be the team standing at the end of Tatsuya Imai. I know I'm a high-man on him, but it just feels like the most "Cub" move on a longer-term deal that I've seen in a while, maybe since Swanson, now that I better understand the operating procedures of the Cubs. 

I feel decent about their chances with Imai. But, what do you mean by “better understanding of the operating procedures of the Cubs”? What have you learned to be true? This is not to challenge you. It is for me to learn something. 

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I feel decent about their chances with Imai. But, what do you mean by “better understanding of the operating procedures of the Cubs”? What have you learned to be true? This is not to challenge you. It is for me to learn something. 

A few things:
1. The Cubs like players from Japan. They've been heavily connected to almost all of the NPB players under Hoyer - big names and smaller names (hello, Tyler Austin!)
2. Age is a factor. The Cubs don't want long term contracts deep into a players' 30's. They'll sign short term deals like that, but don't want to pay long term for it. The one player they signed to 7 years? He was under-30. 
3. The Cubs have a player profile of pitching they like. Pronators who have low arm angles. 
4. The Cubs would prefer not to lose the QO pick as often as they could. That 2nd round pick matters to this team and they like to draft. 

You begin adding it up, and Imai fits into these boxes. I think we've learned over the years what the Cubs like, and what they don't. They're not going to sign Kyle Tucker for 11 years. I do think they'd sign Tatsuya Imai to 6 or 7 years.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

A few things:
1. The Cubs like players from Japan. They've been heavily connected to almost all of the NPB players under Hoyer - big names and smaller names (hello, Tyler Austin!)
2. Age is a factor. The Cubs don't want long term contracts deep into a players' 30's. They'll sign short term deals like that, but don't want to pay long term for it. The one player they signed to 7 years? He was under-30. 
3. The Cubs have a player profile of pitching they like. Pronators who have low arm angles. 
4. The Cubs would prefer not to lose the QO pick as often as they could. That 2nd round pick matters to this team and they like to draft. 

You begin adding it up, and Imai fits into these boxes. I think we've learned over the years what the Cubs like, and what they don't. They're not going to sign Kyle Tucker for 11 years. I do think they'd sign Tatsuya Imai to 6 or 7 years.

If the Cubs sign Imai, which I hope does happen, I almost believe that it will be a shorter contract, maybe 4 or 5 years. 

I still believe that the Cubs are not prioritizing long-term stability over short-term gains. The delay with Imai, as you said, might be something that is habitual, but I also believe that the management is partly at fault for not acting during the winter meetings and possibly securing other players like Bellinger (whom I think would have been a great addition albeit hefty in money).

The hope that I have is derived from your first point--that the Cubs do enjoy Japanese players on their team and have had connections with them. But New York is heavily interested and generally would pay more to build up their team.

What do you believe the contract will be in terms of money? And do you think the Phillies/Yankees will get him first? 

The Cubs hate and are traumatized by long contracts that involve nine figures.

Can you quantify your hope? What percent chance? What caveats? The Cubs are the least aggressive out of the Phillies, Cubs, and Yankees.

Edited December 19, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

A few things:
1. The Cubs like players from Japan. They've been heavily connected to almost all of the NPB players under Hoyer - big names and smaller names (hello, Tyler Austin!)
2. Age is a factor. The Cubs don't want long term contracts deep into a players' 30's. They'll sign short term deals like that, but don't want to pay long term for it. The one player they signed to 7 years? He was under-30. 
3. The Cubs have a player profile of pitching they like. Pronators who have low arm angles. 
4. The Cubs would prefer not to lose the QO pick as often as they could. That 2nd round pick matters to this team and they like to draft. 

You begin adding it up, and Imai fits into these boxes. I think we've learned over the years what the Cubs like, and what they don't. They're not going to sign Kyle Tucker for 11 years. I do think they'd sign Tatsuya Imai to 6 or 7 years.

Thanks. I agree with 1,2, & 4. And trust you on 3. 😬 That distinction I was not familiar with.  That actually makes me feel even more confident about Imai. But they might have to go to the highest contract they ever gave anyone to get him. Which is fine by me. 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

In all likelihood, the team will only sign one of those six players. They would be stretching their budget near its breaking point to land more than one, and they generally prefer to keep some powder dry into mid-January.

I keep coming back to this.  If the team signs a player for $25M+, then using our typical assumptions around payroll (i.e. they really don't want to pass the LT, and they're going to give themselves $10Mish heading into the season for breathing room) then they're basically tapped out.  Roster resource has them $41M under the cap,  Lop off 25 for a big signing, 10 for that rainy day fund, and you're left with basically just enough for a few tiny signings to round out the back of the roster.  A reserve infielder and a couple relievers on split contracts?

But I feel like there are have been a number of subtle indications that they've got a little more money to play with than normal.  Not a ton, probably just an extra $15M or so.  But you combine the various things we're hearing, plus the normal way the team operates (e.g. Jed wanting to bargain shop in January which is basically a meme at this point) and the math just doesn't math.