2025-2026 Offseason Top Prospects Lists

[muntjack]

I was always a ceiling over floor kind of guy with these rankings but this just takes it way too far in my opinion.

Moises Ballesteros is clearly going to hit in the majors.  At 21, he looked right at home in the middle of a major league lineup.   

To reach that point at that age is uncommon,  even for top prospects.  Ethan Conrad will not be playing in the majors at age 21.  

The DH argument is just another way of  saying his floor is 'quality major league hitter'.  

His ceiling is *that bat* at catcher.  

 

 

 

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

36. Moisés Ballesteros
78. Jaxon Wiggins

(Owen Caissie was 43)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

In a promising sign, Ethan Conrad, Kane Kepley and Jefferson Rojas were amongst BA’s 20 that just missed the top 100 (the next 20 are listed in alphabetical order): https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/20-mlb-prospects-who-just-missed-the-2026-top-100/

[Bertz]

BA ranked Kepley 60th in last year's draft.  Letting 130 at bats against weak competition color their opinion on him to this extent is crazy, but then again that's modern day BA I guess

[CaliforniaRaisin]

50 minutes ago, Bertz said:

BA ranked Kepley 60th in last year's draft.  Letting 130 at bats against weak competition color their opinion on him to this extent is crazy, but then again that's modern day BA I guess

That's fine. Let the Cubs get overhyped guys like the Dodgers, Padres and Yankees always do.

[craig]

Does Rojas .202 slugging in 172 Knoxville AB yellow-flag you guys at all?  Or given that he was young, and won't turn 21 till April, are you totally unconcerned?  

Will be really interesting to me to see how he adjusts and bounces back this season.  Being young, of course, is great if you improve with time.  Would be super helpful if he could kinda break out, maybe be healthy all year from start to finish, and have a really productive hitting-season at Knoxville.  

[craig]

8 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

That's fine. Let the Cubs get overhyped guys like the Dodgers, Padres and Yankees always do.

Better yet, maybe let him be both hyped, but also vindicate it over time?  :):). 

Will be interesting to see how he hits this upcoming summer.  But he could be a guy who just really is a good hitter, and who will move fast and be trade-value by this summer?  Or be in the mix for helping replace Happ next spring? 

I don't really see any individual Cubs prospect likely to look like a compelling Happ-replacement, individually.  

But maybe some collection of guys might provide enough hope to let that position go without spending a chunk of budget on it?  In my ideal dreamworld: 

1. Conrad comes in pretty healthy, and looks great.  Hits for contact, controls the strikes zone, shows serious power potential in pros?  Maybe he's not quite ready to totally entrust the starting job to, but maybe he looks like a future asset starter, maybe even a star?  
2. Alcantara gets to go back to Iowa, He's been a 12-17 HR guy, not really a bomber.  But perhaps he's fully healthy, he gets some focus on pull-in-air, he doesn't have his long slow-start deal; and suddenly last year's 17HR jumps to 25+ HR's, and he looks like he's got enough slug to make up for the swing-and-miss?  Last year, he was .818OPS at Iowa, decent but not exactly big-league-starter-ready.  But if I take 8 groundouts from last year and replace them with 8 HR's, and keep all the other numbers unchanged:  suddenly he'd be .287/.370/.554.  A .924-OPS guy with his defense and speed, he'd be way back up into everybody's top-100.  And he might be worth a good opportunity in Happ-replacement world?  (Or Seiya).  
3. Kepley was .488 OBP for Myrtle.  What if he rolls .420-OBP's up through South Bend, and then is still .400-OBP at Knoxville, plus with 50 steals?  Perhaps Hoyer could figure not sure how going to camp after lockout without Happ will look.  But maybe between Conrad, Kepley, and Alcantara, he can figure it might shake out pretty OK?  Plus, if the lockout runs well into the season, perhaps Conrad and Kepley might get a bunch of minor-league development before the season even actually starts?
4. Long was .883 OPS last year with 20 HR.  What if he improved and pulls-in-air a little more often?  If I turned 5 groundouts into 5 more HRs, maybe he's .315/.414/.518, and he gets a bunch of LF work and looks not bad there?  Not close to Happ or Kepley or Alcantara defensively, obviously, but kind of Seiya-esque?  He might be another option...
5. Maybe Shaw could be in that mix, too, as part of his Zobrist-role, if he's not traded before 2027 opens?  

Just thinking that with Caissie gone, and lots of guys approaching the arb-inflation years, I think being willing to let one (or both) of Happ or Seiya go without giving them significant raises (even as they face aging decline), could be really healthy.  But unless Conrad explodes, or Alcantara, I'm thinking there might be some collection of possibilities from which Hoyer and Counsell might draw?  

 

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, craig said:

Does Rojas .202 slugging in 172 Knoxville AB yellow-flag you guys at all?  Or given that he was young, and won't turn 21 till April, are you totally unconcerned?  

It's reminiscent of the early days for guys like Starlin Castro, Junior Lake, and Gleyber Torres, where the young for his league guy clearly has the present day tools to make an impression, but you're unsure if the end result is going to flame out in AAA, or perhaps be something better.

Considering power is not one of Rojas' carrying tools, I'm not particularly concerned about it. Nico Hoerner has demonstrated how a MIF can be a valuable hitter without putting up .450+ SLG numbers, and Rojas seemingly has the hit tools and patience that should alleviate those concerns.

[craig]

Made me look back at CAstro.  Not sure if ages were true back in his era, but he never didn't hit.  He was hitting around .300 in A+ and AA, slugging around .400, at age 19.  At age 20, slugging .569 at AA before getting called up to Cubs already at age 20, where he hit .300 and slugged over .400.  Man, was he ever an exciting prospect-for-age guy.  Never had any windows like Rojas at Knoxville, that's for sure.  

Gleyber never didn't hit, either.  He demolished AA when he was Rojas's age.  Rojas OPS was in the .400's, at same age Gleyber at 20 in AA was almost .900. 

[Bertz]

Whoopsie posted this in the wrong thread initially 

Re: Rojas, I think this that I posted a few months back is worth keeping top of mind
 

Quote

 

These are the league ERAs for each of the Cubs' affiliates. These do NOT account for ballpark, which is worth noting because for instance MB is more pitcher friendly than the league as a whole.

Carolina League (Myrtle Beach): 3.99

Midwest League (South Bend): 4.10

Southern League (Knoxville): 3.69

International League (Iowa): 4.67 (!!!)

MLB: 4.16

 

That doesn't handwave away a sub .500 OPS, not even close really.  But I do think that when you combine it with his age and the fact that his K/BB numbers were still strong it is IMO firmly in the yellow flag zone as opposed to something more existential.

I was basically just starting to work up the courage to put Rojas #1 in the system when he went to AA.  After his stint at Tenn I have him behind the Mo/Caissie/Wiggins/Alcantara quartet, but probably still a smidge ahead of Conrad at 6 and several smidges ahead of Long at 7.

[craig]

I'm higher on Conrad.  Guessing I'm always high on first-rounders who haven't shown any hint of failure yet, higher than other posters.  Conrad ahead of Alcantara, Rojas, and Long for me, and Caissie.  (I likewise ranked Cam ahead of Alcantara/Caissie before the Tucker trade.)  

I often ask myself who I'd more resist losing in trade. 

Often changes once a guy plays for a couple of months, when limitations often manifest.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Pipeline lower on Ballesteros and higher on Wiggins than BA:

 

[Bertz]

Keith Law:

41 - Alcantara

47 - Ballesteros 

79 - Rojas

No Wiggins

[Jason Ross]

36 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Keith Law:

41 - Alcantara

47 - Ballesteros 

79 - Rojas

No Wiggins

Say what you want on Law, but the man is unflinchingly stubborn. In a way I admire it.

[craig]

The variance in rankings is a reminder of how different orgs can value guys somewhat differently.  Cubs pitching thinks Cabrera has this huge ceiling; does anybody else see him that way, or more a guy with some good stuff but no control and a bad fastball?  Marlins seem to love Caissie; guessing some orgs don't.  Heh heh, maybe out there somewhere there's an org who loves Alcantara like Law does, and would value him a lot in a trade?  Or, maybe if he was part of an organization, the other scouts would talk him down from Alcantara!  Who knows.  

I admit I hope Cubs end up with some decent backup OF, and Kevin goes back to Iowa again. 

1. Had the hernia last year, I wonder if that wasn't a factor for a while and he played through it? 
2. We can say 8th year pro, but he was 16 when he started, Covid, injuries, took him 4 years to reach Myrtle.  So he's really had 4 years above rookie, which normally for good players is plenty. 
3. But maybe more to learn and figure out when you're so tall, and perhaps when your English isn't very good so coaching may be slower to click?  
4. He's obviously been an extreme groundball guy.  MLB Cubs were good at pull-in-air, but Kevin hasn't achieved that yet.  But what if somehow he could get better at pull-in air, and he started hitting more in-game HR's, to match his BP power?  
5. Probably not: after 4 years in full-season, and having such a tall, long swing, he's probably just never going to be a good big-league hitter with big-league HR volume.  But just in the off chance that he maybe could figure out how to pull the ball in the air over the left-field fence more frequently, I support one more developmental lots-of-AB-in-Iowa opportunity.  Sometimes improbable things work for organizations that have success.  (WS Cubs, two years earlier what would the odds have been that Hendricks and Arrieta would both be great?  Sometimes, getting lucky with some unusual development happens).  I'd just like to see Kevin get one more chance at regular AB's, and see if he can crank up his HR output, which would crank up all of his BA/OBP/slugging/OPS numbers, and could make him look like a value starter.  

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Say what you want on Law, but the man is unflinchingly stubborn. In a way I admire it.

Not the biggest fan of Law at this point but realistically opinions on Mo and Alcantara (and Caissie) probably shouldn't be a lot different than they were a year sgo.

[Bertz]

Kiley:

51 - Ballesteros

83 - Wiggins

Has Caissie at 77 FWIW

[Bertz]

Also this is probably the best/most succinct writeup of Mo I've seen

Quote

 

Type: Catcher/first baseman/designated hitter who is above average at hitting for average and power

Ballesteros' position isn't clear because he's a way-below-average runner who is fine but not great at blocking with a solid-average arm that's also fine. Given his listed height of 5-foot-8 (he may be shorter than that) and being well over 200 pounds despite what the roster says (think Alejandro Kirk), it's starting to smell like he'll settle in as a designated hitter who can be a second or third catcher and secondary option at first base, as well.

I'd love to be underestimating his ability to become a trusted option behind the plate, but I don't feel like the Cubs love the idea of him catching Cade Horton throwing a bunch of breaking balls in the dirt. Ballesteros has above-average raw power to all fields and above-average contact indicators along with a solid eye. He may be a physically maxed-out prospect with limited defensive value at the moment, but he's big-league-ready, can definitely hit and might be able to catch some, too.

 

 

[craig]

Quote

Ballesteros has above-average raw power to all fields and above-average contact indicators along with a solid eye. He may be a physically maxed-out prospect with limited defensive value at the moment, but he's big-league-ready, can definitely hit and might be able to catch some, too.

Yes, that was a succinct capture (beyond just the piece I pasted.)

The "above-average raw power" is one hinge.  "raw" and "in-game" power aren't the same.  A groundball oppo-hitter, will he pull-in-air often enough to actually hit volume HR's?  >20 HR contact hitter (with walks) is a value DH; 12-HR hitting into lot of DP's not?  

2nd hinge is the difference between 3rd vs 2nd catcher.  2nd catcher catches a lot; 3rd doesn't.  

 

[Bertz]

I'd be lying if I said the superficial comparisons don't color this at all, but Josh Naylor's bat feels like the obvious "optimistic but still firmly realistic" comp.  Give Mo an extra half a win per year for being able to catch 30-40 games a season and you've got a comfortable 3 win player.

ETA:

Looking at Baseball Prospectus, which I don't love broadly but I think is the only place still doing minor league framing, they have him at -0.8 framing runs and -2.4 overall defensive runs at Iowa this year.  Prorated out to a full 120 game catcher workload that's -1.4 and -4.1 respectively.  Very much does not feel like average is out of reach at his age?

Edited January 27 by Bertz

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Very much does not feel like average is out of reach at his age?

I agree. I guess it depends how patient the team is with him learning at the big league level. I can't see them sticking him in Iowa to catch every day when it's pretty clear his bat is big league ready.

[craig]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'd be lying if I said the superficial comparisons don't color this at all, but Josh Naylor's bat feels like the obvious "optimistic but still firmly realistic" comp.  Give Mo an extra half a win per year for being able to catch 30-40 games a season and you've got a comfortable 3 win player.

Good comp.  Naylor has averaged 22 HR over the last 4 years.  

[craig]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

... Prorated out to a full 120 game catcher workload that's -1.4 and -4.1 respectively.  Very much does not feel like average is out of reach at his age?

Agree. Getting close enough to average to become a #2 catcher doesn't seem out of reach.  Like the >20HR thing, not safe to happen; but neither is out of reach.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

22 hours ago, Bertz said:

Kiley:

51 - Ballesteros

83 - Wiggins

Has Caissie at 77 FWIW

Kiley has Jefferson Rojas 107th and Pedro Ramírez 198th.

No Alcántara, Conrad or Kepley in his top 200.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47684202/top-100-mlb-prospects-2026-kiley-mcdaniel-konnor-griffin-kevin-mcgonigle-jesus-made

[imb]

its not so much "can mo get to average behind the plate," because he can probably get close enough that it doesn't matter. the question is probably "how long can he stay close to average behind the plate" and that answer is probably "not very long at all"