Too Late, Too Little: Cubs Washed Out of NLDS by Better Brewers Team, as Pat Murphy Outmanages Craig Counsell

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

In Milwaukee, one of the indelible images of this regular season came in late July, when the Cubs visited the Brewers for a suddenly crucial three-game series. Chicago had held a fluctuating but (generally) comfortable lead all season, but by that point, the Brewers had closed the gap. The teams entered that series tied, and Milwaukee's convincing win in the opener meant they led the division by a game going into action on Tuesday, July 29. Colin Rea struggled through four innings that day, allowing four runs, and the Brewers already led 5-2 when the bottom of the sixth began.

Ryan Pressly still pitched for the Cubs back then—a symbol, by that juncture, of the Cubs front office's misallocation of lots of money over the offseason. He came on to pitch the sixth, trying to keep the game (and, perhaps, the division) within striking distance. He induced a foul popout, but then two walks sandwiched around an error by Nico Hoerner loaded the bases. It was an unhappy situation for the Cubs' dyspeptic manager, Craig Counsell, but he had little choice save to let Pressly try to fool the red-hot Andrew Vaughn. 

It did not, uh, work.

On the first pitch, Pressly hung a curveball that Vaughn hit so savagely as to leave no doubt about its fate. Counsell was on the dugout phone to the bullpen before the ball cleared the wall. Brewers fans have savored that moment as the one at which the division was decided in their favor. Some Brewers players appear to have adopted it as a favorite highlight, too, with a celebration where they mime answering or making a call—and, in the case of Abner Uribe at the end of Game 5 Saturday night, hanging up after one. As a sick burn, that leaves a bit to be desired, but the original idea sure is evocative. That was the moment the Cubs were beat, even if there was two months of baseball left to play.

Counsell's move from the Brewers to the Cubs was so much at the center of the narrative this past week that it's hard not to think of the series through that lens. Ordinarily, the managers play a relatively small role in determining the outcomes of games and series in the modern game, but this time, you could see the machinations and the countermoves stacking on top of each other. You could feel the weight of each decision, and you could grasp what was going on in each chess master's mind more vividly than usual. Pat Murphy beat Counsell at every key juncture, and that helped decide the series Saturday night.

Maybe the league needs a way to force starting pitcher and lineup decisions to be made on a specific schedule, without either side getting the informational advantage. Right now, the question of which pitcher will start a playoff game can often be a legitimately open one until six hours before first pitch, as teams make use of openers and map out bullpen games. This can lead to a somewhat silly standoff—each team tries to wait and see what the other will do before announcing their own plans. It rarely makes a meaningful difference, of course, because (for instance) which pitcher one side starts very rarely affects the decision for the other side about the same, but there are exceptions. After all, an entire lineup card has to be made out, and while you want to adapt which players will bat where to suit the opposing starter, you also want to decide about them based on your own pitcher's tendencies and on the overall roadmap you expect that particular game to follow.

Murphy and Counsell had a virtual staring contest before all five games, to varying degrees, waiting out each other's decisions and lineups to force the other to move first and allow them to work with an edge. Murphy won all the important battles of timing. Some of that is just because he has better personnel, with more ways to beat Counsell's options. For instance, Counsell finally relented, and the Cubs announced about eight hours before Game 5 that Drew Pomeranz would be their starting pitcher. That was a huge mistake, and the Brewers were set up very nicely to exploit it. Murphy wrote Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang and William Contreras into the top three spots on his lineup card.

If you could play a version of baseball where the lineup has to be made out agnostically, without foreknowledge of the opposing starter, the Cubs would have been better off. Murphy probably would have batted two lefties and a righty in his top three, rather than two righties and a lefty. Counsell lost the war of wills, and the Brewers had the chance to align themselves optimally—but that's also the custom of the day throughout the league. It's not Counsell's fault that teams are expected to announce pitchers so the other team can set their lineups, and it's not his fault that the Brewers have better matchup weapons than the Cubs do.

However, because of that very league-wide custom, starting Pomeranz at all was a massive gaffe by the manager. As I wrote Friday night, Pomeranz had already been overexposed to the Brewers lineup in a condensed time period, and (unlike, for instance, Caleb Thielbar) he's very platoon-vulnerable. Locking him into the first three batters of the game and letting Murphy decide which batters those would be was an extraordinary error by the Cubs' $40-million skipper. Thielbar would have been a better option. So would any hurler with reverse platoon splits, which is not all that uncommon a creature—but, again giving Counsell a break by acknowledging the shortcomings of the front office, it is so on the Cubs. Of active hurlers for the series, only Andrew Kittredge and Jameson Taillon fit that bill. Kittredge wasn't going to start, because stuff-wise, he's more dominant against righties, and Counsell wanted him to be available for a later, more flexible assault on a righty-leaning pocket of the order. Taillon was available, by all accounts, and maybe should have been the play, but it seemed like Counsell wanted to stay away from the starter who had worked just three days earlier, if possible. He had no perfect option, but he certainly had better ones.

Pomeranz tried everything to get out the top three in that lineup, as long as by 'everything,' you only mean 'fastballs'. He threw seven straight to Chourio, and got a strikeout. He threw six in a row to Turang, and induced a (deep, warning shot) flyout. Then he threw six more in a row—20 straight heaters to start the game, from a guy whose velocity doesn't and didn't exceed 95 miles per hour!—to Contreras, and on the last of them, Contreras took him deep. It was a bad matchup and a familiar one for the hitter and it was always going to happen, once Counsell started Pomeranz. It was an unavoidable 1-0 deficit.

Seiya Suzuki got the Cubs level instantly in the top of the second, though, and it felt like magic. Suzuki, who was very much part of the team's problem hitting high-velocity fastballs this year, went down and got a 101.4-mph fastball from Jacob Misiorowski, lining it over the wall in right-center for a game-tying dinger. Counsell had been rescued from his bad call. He had a run to work with. The trouble, of course, is that that was all he would get.

After Pomeranz's inning of work, Colin Rea took over to start the bottom of the second. Arguably, Rea also could have just started the game, but it did make some sense to have Andrew Vaughn (batting fifth) be the first batter he saw. He pitched very well through 2 2/3 innings. wending his way through the Milwaukee batting order one full turn in short order. Though the Brewers did make some hard, threatening contact. Rea yielded only two baserunners through his first nine batters faced, and one came on an error by Dansby Swanson, which was quickly nullified by a double play.

If Counsell had been ready with his hook after nine batters—if the hard and fast rule had been that Rea would face Milwaukee hitters just once each—he could have gotten the team through four frames tied 1-1, and wouldn't that have been sweet? Alas, he had a different plan in mind. He had at least some vision of going to Shota Imanaga after Rea; Imanaga warmed up during the fourth and appeared to be preparing to come in should anyone get on in the inning ahead of Sal Frelick.

Instead, on another 3-2 count with two outs, Vaughn got the Cubs again. Counsell had been too slow. Seeing Rea a second time and getting a hanging slider, Vaughn untied the game with one swing, and there was no need for Imanaga, after all. Three batters later, Rea still hadn't escaped the inning and Daniel Palencia had to clean things up, and the game had swung the Brewers' way.

The Cubs had one good chance to tilt things back in their favor. In the top of the sixth, having known all along he would need at least a bit of bridge work from his relief workhorse, Murphy went to Aaron Ashby to face the top of the Cubs order. Ashby was the Brewers' Pomeranz in this game: already spent, not in position to have much success based on his combination of heavy recent use and matchup fatigue, but in there, nonetheless. Michael Busch bounced a single into center field against him, and Nico Hoerner walked, and you could see the danger beacons flaring, the red lights swinging round in the minds of Brewers fans and (metaphorically) sweeping the walls of Uecker Field. Then, the rally disappeared, in a puff of smoke. Ashby found the necessary guts and stuff to beat Kyle Tucker, throwing a monster of a 3-2, backdoor sinker past his bat.

Then, Murphy went to righty long man Chad Patrick, who set down Suzuki and (on, somehow, an even better pitch, a backdoor cutter that froze him) Ian Happ. The Brewers needed some good luck; Suzuki drilled a liner to left that just didn't carry over the head of Chourio. Still, they had escaped. Counsell's pitching moves had been too late; the offense could muster too little.

It's a cruel thing, to ask a manager to go beat a superior roster 1-0 in an elimination game, but that is what the Cubs tasked Counsell with doing Saturday night. He had ways to do it, but he missed his chances. The bulk of the blame should go to the front office, and of course, the players were the ones who failed to execute. Counsell didn't call all 20 of those consecutive Pomeranz fastballs, or mislocate the fateful slider to Vaughn. He couldn't step in and swing for the overmatched hitters. However, the genius of Counsell never materialized in this set. Murphy outfoxed him in Games 2 and 5, and it made the difference in the series, as much as Milwaukee's better scouting and development or their players' better clutch performances did.

Because the Brewers won the division in their first year without Counsell and the Cubs stayed home in October, perversely, the playoff whammy that seemed to follow Counsell and his Crew after 2018 had shifted firmly onto the Brewers for a year. Theirs was the fan base with the anxiety about an October showdown; theirs was the annoying litany of losses. But now, despite the Cubs having gutted out a series win over a Padres team they're better than in the first place, it feels like that onus is now back on Counsell. The Brewers broke through. The monkey is off their back for a good, long while. Rather than disappearing, though, that monkey has crawled right up onto Counsell instead—and with him, since the two sides have a contract with three more years and a whole lot of money on it, the Cubs. There's still every chance that Counsell can win a World Series with Chicago, but he helped ensure that they won't get that chance in 2025, and being outmanaged by his mentor-turned-lieutenant-turned-rival was a brutal way for the skipper's second season with his new team to end.

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[Named After Maddux]

Pomeranz has held righties to a .305 wOBA with a 15.4% K-BB%. 
since around the middle of September including the postseason coming into yesterday it was a .303 wOBA with a 42.5% K-rate. He’d been on a roll. Overexposed sure. The entire pen has been. I don’t think it was “outmanaged” to see if you could get one more inning out of Pomeranz while also changing the lineup of Milwaukee.

The Brewers won. The Cubs ran out of steam. I think Counsell isn’t some savior but he’s helped the Cubs weather the storm this season and got them there. Lot of teams would have folded. The Cubs got back into it and forced that game. The only quibble I had was Rea facing Vaughn. The other moves made sense. Certainly (edit: missed a key word) didn’t* think he was outmanaged

Edited October 12, 2025 by Named After Maddux
Missed the key word “didn’t”

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Named After Maddux said:

Pomeranz has held righties to a .305 wOBA with a 15.4% K-BB%. 
since around the middle of September including the postseason coming into yesterday it was a .303 wOBA with a 42.5% K-rate. He’d been on a roll. Overexposed sure. The entire pen has been. I don’t think it was “outmanaged” to see if you could get one more inning out of Pomeranz while also changing the lineup of Milwaukee.

The Brewers won. The Cubs ran out of steam. I think Counsell isn’t some savior but he’s helped the Cubs weather the storm this season and got them there. Lot of teams would have folded. The Cubs got back into it and forced that game. The only quibble I had was Rea facing Vaughn. The other moves made sense. Certainly think he was outmanaged

He didn’t try getting one more inning out of Pomeranz. He tried getting the first inning out of him without a run. It didn’t work. But I don’t feel that was wrong. Pomeranz had been great up until that one pitch. He didn’t getting Rea past Vaughn, but that didn’t happen either. However, how do you pull him there? 2 outs and no one on base and he worked 2.2 innings up until then. Brewers just hit 3 solo homers to the Cubs 1. It happens. It is baseball. Them winning doesn’t mean Counsell for outmanaged. Honestly, has anyone told me the Cubs were going to give up 3 runs in that game I would have gladly taken that outcome and felt the Cubs could/should win the game. You ended your post with saying “certainly think he was ouanaged”. Did you mean to say that? Sounded like you were defending his moves. 

[Named After Maddux]

29 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

He didn’t try getting one more inning out of Pomeranz. He tried getting the first inning out of him without a run. It didn’t work. But I don’t feel that was wrong. Pomeranz had been great up until that one pitch. He didn’t getting Rea past Vaughn, but that didn’t happen either. However, how do you pull him there? 2 outs and no one on base and he worked 2.2 innings up until then. Brewers just hit 3 solo homers to the Cubs 1. It happens. It is baseball. Them winning doesn’t mean Counsell for outmanaged. Honestly, has anyone told me the Cubs were going to give up 3 runs in that game I would have gladly taken that outcome and felt the Cubs could/should win the game. You ended your post with saying “certainly think he was ouanaged”. Did you mean to say that? Sounded like you were defending his moves. 

I meant getting one more inning out of Pomeranz this series

and no I meant “certainly didn’t think he was outmanaged”. I’ll edit, but that’s what I meant.

The Cubs played short-handed and Counsell managed things well to even get them to that point. I didn’t get this article seemingly acting like Murphy was just managing circles around Counsell. Didn’t feel that way at all.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Named After Maddux said:

I meant getting one more inning out of Pomeranz this series

and no I meant “certainly didn’t think he was outmanaged”. I’ll edit, but that’s what I meant.

The Cubs played short-handed and Counsell managed things well to even get them to that point. I didn’t get this article seemingly acting like Murphy was just managing circles around Counsell. Didn’t feel that way at all.

👍 didn’t think so. That responded. I agree.

[Connor McConnor]

Not enough offense.  Story of the 2nd half.   Counsell is fine. 

[SB in SC]

I just can't blame everything on Counsell for losing this series.  I do not think the Cubs were the better team.  I would have preferred Rea start game 1 and start Boyd in game 2.   Counsell stuck with his starters to the point that his bench did not have much of a chance, but his bench was not great.  He exposed some bullpen guys by letting the Brewers see them too many times, but he did not have great options.  I would have preferred to see Assad on the roster than Brown.  (I think Brown could be a very good reliever, just not in 2025) I did not want to see Shota start game 5, and I did not want to see Brown or Civale pitch in game 5. 

Murphy left some pitchers in a batter too long that if those guys got hits today would be a very different story.  Shaw did not hit, Happ had 1 big hit in 8 games, PCA played what is hopefully his worst playoffs, Dansby was not great with the bat.

These are the questions that I have:

If Hoyer was not in the last year of his contract would he have made the Tucker trade?  Will he make another big trade to help the 2026 team?  

Why in the Athletic front office poll for the last two years did not one executive vote for the Cubs as a top organization?  How will that be addressed?

Will the Cubs shake up their core to get better?

Will they spend on what they need or only spend on players if they are a good deal?  

I am more concerned with how the front office handles the off season than I am with Counsell's in game managing.  I could be way off as well as I did not blame Ross as much as the front office either.  

 

[Arlen]

Waiting for the big postseason news: Cubs Release Counsell, Sign Pat Murphy! 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Velocity is the word of the year folks; they didnt have enough of it and they didnt do enough damage against it. Things got really bad in the 2nd half and that culminated in scoring 23 runs in 8 playoff games.

 

Im not sure how to remedy this as it feels like 9/10 of our offense is set for next year and teams aren't really shedding big arms for us to pick up like that. Trading for Cabrera and signing Bregman would be a pretty big move in that direction but not enough. It needs to come internally, apparently. IDK.

[mul21]

Yeah, Counsell definitely got outmanaged in the 6th inning when his top 2 hitters got on base and the 3 highest paid hitters on the team proceeded to completely horsefeathers the bed in the most crucial moment of the season.  100% his fault. 🙄