Giants (Ray) vs Cubs (Brown): 5/7/25, 1:20pm

[Jason Ross]

32 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

He is just not getting to his power this year. He has 1 HR and 3 doubles and I'm pretty sure 2 of those weren't even well-struck. His EV is 85 and his LA is 4.4... in AAA. 31% hard-hit. Nothing like the guy he was last year. Something is still not right.

The LA is an issue. But I think we have to accept something about Shaw and other high contact hitters: EV will always be a little wonky. Players who make a lot of contact hit some balls hard and also have the ability to hit some balls weakly (that hitters with worse contact ability just won't touch). He'll pick up some hits on low EV's and I don't think it's necessarily an indication that something is bad.

For example, his first PA yesterday. 1-2 pitch, gets a pretty decent splitter low, and off the plate. Shaw reaches and pokes a ball to shortstop. It's a 75 mph ground out. EV? Not good. But I think guys without Shaw's contact ability swing over that and they're struck out. Shaw will rack up plays like that. He'll also poke a few of those into center or a hole and get some hits. It's the push and pull of the hit tool. 

Back to the LA - yeah that's funky. He's usually a pretty good LA guy. So while I think the EV is a bit of a red herring at times for Shaw the LA is weird. Definitely something still not exactly there. 

His second PA is probably a good example of what I am concerned about. Shaw is in a 2-1 count. Gets a mid-slightly-out sinker. 88mph. But it's a hittable and good pitch. Shaw hits a one hopper to shortstop. His front side is diving into the ball. Front shoulder drops. He should hit that ball in the air. It's a sinker that isn't below the zone so it's falling into your bat path. 

[Rcal10]

Back to Horton, if the Cubs really don’t want him starting against the Mets they could pitch Tallion, Boyd and Rea all on usual rest and let Horton pitch next week against the Marlins. They don’t have to go either Horton or a pen day. That is why I think they have a lot of confidence in Horton. If they wanted to ease him in they could just wait. But it looks like they are not doing that. 

[Stratos]

58 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Back to Horton, if the Cubs really don’t want him starting against the Mets they could pitch Tallion, Boyd and Rea all on usual rest and let Horton pitch next week against the Marlins. They don’t have to go either Horton or a pen day. That is why I think they have a lot of confidence in Horton. If they wanted to ease him in they could just wait. But it looks like they are not doing that. 

JD i think said they don't want to skip rest on all the SP.  Wouldn't just affect Taillon.

The nice thing about the Mets is it would be a road start, which would be less pressure.  Though it is NY.  They could also use another reliever as an opener, which would again be less pressure.

I remember Kerry Wood's first start was in Montreal with a small crowd there.  Ultimate low pressure environment for a touted young pitcher.

[Randall Simon]

Low pressure can be a bad thing sometimes too though 

[Hot Sauce]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

JD i think said they don't want to skip rest on all the SP.  Wouldn't just affect Taillon.

The nice thing about the Mets is it would be a road start, which would be less pressure.  Though it is NY.  They could also use another reliever as an opener, which would again be less pressure.

I remember Kerry Wood's first start was in Montreal with a small crowd there.  Ultimate low pressure environment for a touted young pitcher.

And then four starts later… history! 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

JD i think said they don't want to skip rest on all the SP.  Wouldn't just affect Taillon.

The nice thing about the Mets is it would be a road start, which would be less pressure.  Though it is NY.  They could also use another reliever as an opener, which would again be less pressure.

I remember Kerry Wood's first start was in Montreal with a small crowd there.  Ultimate low pressure environment for a touted young pitcher.

I agree they won’t do it. My point is they can. They can start 3 pitchers on normal rest and don’t NEED to start him until Tuesday. To me, the fact they aren’t doing this tells me they believe he will be fine starting in NY. Which I happen to agree with.