Cade Horton

[Juanmacker2]

Horton should be brought up and be in the bullpen…maybe closer, eventually…his time in minor leagues shows his stuff wanes after 50-60 pitches…

not enough to be a starter…

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Juanmacker2 said:

Horton should be brought up and be in the bullpen…maybe closer, eventually…his time in minor leagues shows his stuff wanes after 50-60 pitches…

not enough to be a starter…

They need to just keep him in the game longer.  He will improve if he pitches deeper in to games.  He is 100% a starter.  This season, he should probably get put in the pen the last couple of months to finish out his innings limit.  But he should use every inning possible as a starter. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

I have not looked at the metrics but he was nasty in the 4th today around the 50-60 pitch mark. 

[Jason Ross]

25 minutes ago, thawv said:

They need to just keep him in the game longer.  He will improve if he pitches deeper in to games.  He is 100% a starter.  This season, he should probably get put in the pen the last couple of months to finish out his innings limit.  But he should use every inning possible as a starter. 

He has been ramping up. He hit 76 pitches today, this is his high water mark. Last game it was 71. There's a push and a pull between ramping up and throwing into the deep end. Expect his next start to go around 80.

He's looked exhausted around the 50-55 mark in the past and is generally when he's had struggles. His fastball velo will drop from sitting 97-98 to 94-95mph. The game prior, it was pitch #52 that he surrendered a middle-middle home run on a slider that never dropped off, and pitch 61 where he gave up a 95+ mph rocket to RF.  Having him go 90, for example, would not have been a good idea. It's begging for injury from a tired pitcher. 

He will probably make a debut in Chicago sometime around May. I would expect him to maintain a pitch limit between 80-90 pitches. This should be enough to guide him through 5 or so innings.

[tfarks]

25 minutes ago, thawv said:

They need to just keep him in the game longer.  He will improve if he pitches deeper in to games.  He is 100% a starter.  This season, he should probably get put in the pen the last couple of months to finish out his innings limit.  But he should use every inning possible as a starter. 

Makes sense and hopefully he can make it the whole year (duh). Has it been mentioned anywhere what # of innings they're shooting for? 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, tfarks said:

Makes sense and hopefully he can make it the whole year (duh). Has it been mentioned anywhere what # of innings they're shooting for? 

A fair guestimate would be around 120 IP. Maybe a few more, or a few less. 

[Stratos]

I hope Horton has the arm health to remain a starter.  Fingers crossed.

[Bertz]

I would say generally when you're talking about a 23 year old the reaction to "he can't do XX" should generally be "he should practice more to see if he can start" rather than just assuming it'll never get better.

[ILMindState]

I'm assuming Brown goes to the BP when Horton is ready? Brown and getting Tyson Miller back could really help the bullpen out.

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

He has been ramping up. He hit 76 pitches today, this is his high water mark. Last game it was 71. There's a push and a pull between ramping up and throwing into the deep end. Expect his next start to go around 80.

He's looked exhausted around the 50-55 mark in the past and is generally when he's had struggles. His fastball velo will drop from sitting 97-98 to 94-95mph. The game prior, it was pitch #52 that he surrendered a middle-middle home run on a slider that never dropped off, and pitch 61 where he gave up a 95+ mph rocket to RF.  Having him go 90, for example, would not have been a good idea. It's begging for injury from a tired pitcher. 

He will probably make a debut in Chicago sometime around May. I would expect him to maintain a pitch limit between 80-90 pitches. This should be enough to guide him through 5 or so innings.

I couldn't have written this any better!  I think 2-3 more starts, and then join the team in the 2nd or 3rd full week of May.  

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

A fair guestimate would be around 120 IP. Maybe a few more, or a few less. 

I was thinking 100 IP.  I like yours better.  Even if he has to spend the end of the season in the pen to finish out his innings, he'd be helping the team.  I don't want to see him shut down do to innings. 

[squally1313]

38 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

I'm assuming Brown goes to the BP when Horton is ready? Brown and getting Tyson Miller back could really help the bullpen out.

While you could see maybe some sort of piggyback situation in the two rotation spots for Rea/Brown/Horton, realistically if Horton keeps performing you're going to see him in a multi inning relief role and any starting pitching improvements are going to come externally. 

[thawv]

1 hour ago, tfarks said:

Makes sense and hopefully he can make it the whole year (duh). Has it been mentioned anywhere what # of innings they're shooting for? 

I was GUESSING that 100 seemed reasonable.  JRoss thinks it could be 120 innings.  I hope he's right.

[musclemom]

Any help is appreciated.

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, thawv said:

I was GUESSING that 100 seemed reasonable.  JRoss thinks it could be 120 innings.  I hope he's right.

They should be very conservative with him on IP and pitch counts.  He only pitched 34 ip last year and his body couldn't handle it.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

They should be very conservative with him on IP and pitch counts.  He only pitched 34 ip last year and his body couldn't handle it.

I dont think "his body couldn't handle it" is a fair statement. He got hurt, yes, but he threw 88 IP the year prior, so it isn't like his body gets to 34 and then simply gives up. He had a shoulder issue, it lingered, the Cubs were conservative and shut him down. 

Assuming he's at full health, and the velo suggests he's fine through April, 100-120 feels fair.  Hes at just arpund 16 and probably makes one more April start which is a roughly, 120 IP pace. 120 would include playoff baseball, as well, so expect BP work to slow that down.

[thawv]

On 4/23/2025 at 1:15 PM, Jason Ross said:

He has been ramping up. He hit 76 pitches today, this is his high water mark. Last game it was 71. There's a push and a pull between ramping up and throwing into the deep end. Expect his next start to go around 80.

He's looked exhausted around the 50-55 mark in the past and is generally when he's had struggles. His fastball velo will drop from sitting 97-98 to 94-95mph. The game prior, it was pitch #52 that he surrendered a middle-middle home run on a slider that never dropped off, and pitch 61 where he gave up a 95+ mph rocket to RF.  Having him go 90, for example, would not have been a good idea. It's begging for injury from a tired pitcher. 

He will probably make a debut in Chicago sometime around May. I would expect him to maintain a pitch limit between 80-90 pitches. This should be enough to guide him through 5 or so innings.

Let's say his next start is 80 pitches.  That start would be on or about April 30th.  Then his next start should be about May 7th.  Should we expect around 85 pitches?  Or do you think they pull back?  And if he needs a 3rd start, that's in the May 14th range.  What's the number of pitches?  Maybe 90?  He's clearly 100% healthy, and his stuff looks great, except for a bit of control issues.  After that 3rd start, why wouldn't they put him in the rotation in the 3rd full week of May?  I feel like stretching him out is the only reason he's not up yet.  I'd hat to "waste" too many innings in Iowa.  Let's say he throws 30 innings in Iowa, and maybe a dozen starts with the Cubs for let's call it 60 more innings.  Conservatively, that would take him to the middle to end of July.  He can pitch the last couple of months in the pen to finish off his innings limit.  Am I viewing this wrong? 

[squally1313]

42 minutes ago, thawv said:

Let's say his next start is 80 pitches.  That start would be on or about April 30th.  Then his next start should be about May 7th.  Should we expect around 85 pitches?  Or do you think they pull back?  And if he needs a 3rd start, that's in the May 14th range.  What's the number of pitches?  Maybe 90?  He's clearly 100% healthy, and his stuff looks great, except for a bit of control issues.  After that 3rd start, why wouldn't they put him in the rotation in the 3rd full week of May?  I feel like stretching him out is the only reason he's not up yet.  I'd hat to "waste" too many innings in Iowa.  Let's say he throws 30 innings in Iowa, and maybe a dozen starts with the Cubs for let's call it 60 more innings.  Conservatively, that would take him to the middle to end of July.  He can pitch the last couple of months in the pen to finish off his innings limit.  Am I viewing this wrong? 

'except for a bit of control issues' is a really nice way of saying he's walking almost 6 minor league hitters per 9 innings. And that's before the .200 BABIP and 96.4% LOB%. I hope he continues showing improvement and becomes a free upgrade to the major league team this summer, but it's a bit of a stretch to say that the current version of Horton is 'being stretched out' away from being a noticeable upgrade to the rotation. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

'except for a bit of control issues' is a really nice way of saying he's walking almost 6 minor league hitters per 9 innings. And that's before the .200 BABIP and 96.4% LOB%. I hope he continues showing improvement and becomes a free upgrade to the major league team this summer, but it's a bit of a stretch to say that the current version of Horton is 'being stretched out' away from being a noticeable upgrade to the rotation. 

So, I would really hold back on worrying about a lot of the things you're pointing out here. First, the walks; in his first start, two of his three walks came in the fourth inning during a downpour. He could barely hold on the ball. In his second start, two of his three walks came on the first two hitter and on nine pitches. It was very cold that nigh, once again, really felt like he was struggling for grip, not command. Should we entirely ignore them? Probably not, but I think both are easily explained away by weather and rust more so than any concern. 

Secondly, his BABIP is low. And yes, the LOB% is high. But here is his statcast page: 

The only issue on there, really, are the walks. He's absolutely elite in most categories. So if we can explain the walks and he's crushing it in terms of whiff, zone contact and hard hit it's not shocking that he's giving up a low BABIP. When we look at MiLB BABIP we have to look at it a little differently than MLB data - sometimes, when we see low pitcher BABIP, it's not that it's luck, it's that his skill is so much better than he's dominating hitters. From watch his his starts, when he's not walking guys, he's dominating them in zone. It's also why the LOB% is high - guys aren't getting on base often. And when they do, they can't string hits together. It's a one and done. He won't keep a 1 ERA or the 94% LOB%, but I also don't think they're numbers to worry about, if that makes sense?

As well, his stuff+ is glistening. His third pitch is grading out as a good stuff+ offering. 

I really don't think he's very far away from being MLB ready or an upgrade for the rotation. Colin Rea has been much better than expected, but I'm not going to fully say he's that good yet. He's throwing a completely different pitch mix so far (scrapped the sinker for a four seam) and the league hasn't had a chance to adjust. 

I wouldn't bring him up today; I think two maybe three more goes (and they're similar to the last two) and yeah, he's probably MLB ready. And yeah, I do think he's going to be an upgrade in the rotation over either Ben Brown (who still waffles from control issues to impressive) or Colin Rea (who I am not exactly sure what we have yet). No shade on either, I really think that highly of Cade. 

To put it this way; on a pure RPM basis, his slider and curve are grading out on par with Dylan Cease as is his fastball velocity. And unlike Cease, who's struggled with command consistency throughout his career, Horton tends to pile up the strikes. The upside on Horton is basically "What if Dylan Cease dogpiled strikes?"

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

 

The only issue on there, really, are the walks. He's absolutely elite in most categories. So if we can explain the walks and he's crushing it in terms of whiff, zone contact and hard hit it's not shocking that he's giving up a low BABIP. When we look at MiLB BABIP we have to look at it a little differently than MLB data - sometimes, when we see low pitcher BABIP, it's not that it's luck, it's that his skill is so much better than he's dominating hitters. From watch his his starts, when he's not walking guys, he's dominating them in zone. It's also why the LOB% is high - guys aren't getting on base often. And when they do, they can't string hits together. It's a one and done. He won't keep a 1 ERA or the 94% LOB%, but I also don't think they're numbers to worry about, if that makes sense?

 

Out of curiosity, how does your dominating in zone/his low BABIP is justified line up with the xwOBA, average EV, and Barrel % all being middle of the pack for AAA pitchers?

[Jason Ross]

30 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Out of curiosity, how does your dominating in zone/his low BABIP is justified line up with the xwOBA, average EV, and Barrel % all being middle of the pack for AAA pitchers?

Great question! Much of the hard hits have come against him when he's slowing down - statcast percentiles won't give context, they just give numbers. Numbers can be great, but especially in small samples, context really matters. I'll use his last two starts to highlight this:

•  In his start on April 16th, The three highest EV's he surrendered were 103, 102, 101. All came after his 50th pitch of the day (FB velo sitting 95 which is 2-3 mph lower than normal). One of these was a home run, which neither counts for LOB% (solo shot) nor BABIP (HR's are not "in play"). 
• In his start on April 23rd, he gave up three hits over a 95 EV, two of the three came in the 5th inning, after 60 pitches. Fastball velocity was sitting 94-95mph

I've been very adamant that he's been gassing around 55-60 pitches (though it's getting better) and the EV's go up around that range. It's why he needs to build stamina (which the Cubs are doing) and why I said he needs a few more starts that look more like his last one. Two to three starts gets him into May and I'd assume any point around then we're on Cade Horton watch if they go well . I don't think he's an upgrade today, but it's because the hurdle to clear is stamina which is probably, very much tied to his lack of pitching post-May last year; he's missed 10 months of in-game action. Once the hurdle clears and he's going a solid 80 pitches or so, it's a different story.

But prior to this, the hurdle was really "Horton needs a third thing" and he's clearly figuring that out. The curveball was thrown 10 times yesterday and generated six swings, four of which were whiffs. Stuff+ likes it. Early in the game when the juice is there, he's crunching hitters, most of the time, in the zone. He got 11 whiffs yesterday on 76 pitches. And there were players like Reese Hinds, Tyler Stephenson and Will Benson (who are either MLB hitters or who have had MLB success) in that Louisville Bats lineup. That's the closest to "ready" he's looked and a few more starts that build on that, build the stamina and keep that going? Yeah, it'll be less "that's as ready as he's looked" and more "he's ready".

 

[squally1313]

23 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Great question! Much of the hard hits have come against him when he's slowing down - statcast percentiles won't give context, they just give numbers. Numbers can be great, but especially in small samples, context really matters. I'll use his last two starts to highlight this:

•  In his start on April 16th, The three highest EV's he surrendered were 103, 102, 101. All came after his 50th pitch of the day (FB velo sitting 95 which is 2-3 mph lower than normal). One of these was a home run, which neither counts for LOB% (solo shot) nor BABIP (HR's are not "in play"). 
• In his start on April 23rd, he gave up three hits over a 95 EV, two of the three came in the 5th inning, after 60 pitches. Fastball velocity was sitting 94-95mph

I've been very adamant that he's been gassing around 55-60 pitches (though it's getting better) and the EV's go up around that range. It's why he needs to build stamina (which the Cubs are doing) and why I said he needs a few more starts that look more like his last one. Two to three starts gets him into May and I'd assume any point around then we're on Cade Horton watch if they go well . I don't think he's an upgrade today, but it's because the hurdle to clear is stamina which is probably, very much tied to his lack of pitching post-May last year; he's missed 10 months of in-game action. Once the hurdle clears and he's going a solid 80 pitches or so, it's a different story.

But prior to this, the hurdle was really "Horton needs a third thing" and he's clearly figuring that out. The curveball was thrown 10 times yesterday and generated six swings, four of which were whiffs. Stuff+ likes it. Early in the game when the juice is there, he's crunching hitters, most of the time, in the zone. He got 11 whiffs yesterday on 76 pitches. And there were players like Reese Hinds, Tyler Stephenson and Will Benson (who are either MLB hitters or who have had MLB success) in that Louisville Bats lineup. That's the closest to "ready" he's looked and a few more starts that build on that, build the stamina and keep that going? Yeah, it'll be less "that's as ready as he's looked" and more "he's ready".

 

Appreciate all that. And I think ultimately we're agreed. Right now, if we needed to win one game/series, he can take Ethan Roberts job. Ideally in a month-six weeks, at his current progression pace, he's a Colin Rea upgrade (or, let's be honest, he's a replacement for an injured starter). 

Bigger picture, not directed at you, the team is 16-10 (16-8 in America, but they all count) against a historically hard schedule and the conversation at times is dedicated to making changes to the major league roster. Let them keep cooking. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, squally1313 said:

Appreciate all that. And I think ultimately we're agreed. Right now, if we needed to win one game/series, he can take Ethan Roberts job. Ideally in a month-six weeks, at his current progression pace, he's a Colin Rea upgrade (or, let's be honest, he's a replacement for an injured starter). 

Bigger picture, not directed at you, the team is 16-10 (16-8 in America, but they all count) against a historically hard schedule and the conversation at times is dedicated to making changes to the major league roster. Let them keep cooking. 

Yeah, I would let them keep cooking today. I do think come Mid-May, there's an argument to be made to give Ben Brown a rest and let Horton soak up some innings in the rotation as he builds stamina. It will allow Brown to return to the rotation as the year goes and then you can transition Horton back to the bullpen and swap him again with Brown. Neither Horton or Brown are realistically 150 IP guys this year and they'll probably want to get creative to find rest for both. A 6-man could be another way to do both if you don't want to rest or bullpen Brown for a bit. 

The Cubs shouldn't be in a rush to bring Horton up today, but I do think we're not far away from Cade Horton being very ready. At that point, you have to ask yourself "do I want to waste these bullets in Iowa?" and that will be an answer the Cubs will have to answer themselves. I suspect they won't want to, but it's a just a personal hunch.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

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