Why No Pete Crow-Armstrong Extension is Imminent Yet, More Details on What It Would Look Like

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Cubs and their young center fielder have discussed a long-term deal, but so far, the gap between them is significant. In this particular case, however, there's plenty of reason for hope that common ground will eventually materialize.

Image courtesy of © Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Over the weekend, MLB.com reporter Mark Feinsand reported that the Cubs and center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong have had discussions "about an extension worth roughly $75 million." He later issued a clarification to that tweet, stating that the deal would only have reached that range if all the options involved had been exercised. That's an important clarification, indeed, because the difference between a pre-arbitration extension that guarantees $75 million and one that can merely max out there is often the difference between a house and a housefly.

In this case, according to sources familiar with the proposal, the truth is closer to the latter. The Cubs control Crow-Armstrong's services through 2030. A deal that begins next year would have to cover five years of team control before eating into his free agency, and that is the most important reason to expect the two sides to move closer together on a deal over time. 

While the shape of this particular deal never fully came into focus, a source said the general structure would likely have resembled this:

• 2026: $1 million
• 2027: $2 million
• 2028: $4 million
• 2029: $8 million
• 2030: $16 million

Add a signing bonus (likely around $5 million), and that would have secured around $36 million for Crow-Armstrong through the years for which he's assured of being under team control. The real crux of the deal, though, would be the years thereafter. Sources said Crow-Armstrong would stand to make somewhere between $20 million and $25 million per year for what would otherwise be his first two free-agent years, were a deal to come to fruition. The Cubs, however, aren't yet ready to guarantee those seasons, which would be his age-29 and age-30 campaigns. So far, Crow-Armstrong's lack of a coherent approach at the plate has stunted his development, even as he's racked up value by being one of the best defenders and baserunners in the league. While there remains (in the team's eyes) a real risk that he won't hit enough to stick in the starting lineup, they're wary of committing to those years, when his defense could also be starting to slip.

Let's sketch this out. If both of those seasons were guaranteed, it would push the value of the deal as high as $80 million. In reality, though, the Cubs were offering two team options, with a buyout similar to the size of the signing bonus, which likely meant that the guaranteed money in the deal was around $40 million.

• 2031: $22 million ($6 million buyout)
• 2032: $24 million ($2 million buyout)

If you're part of Crow-Armstrong's camp, that deal is not especially appealing. It does ensure that he makes generational money over the course of his career, but severely caps him in terms of ceiling. One source speculated that guaranteeing the first year of what would be free agency and adding a similar team option for 2033 could be an effective compromise. In that case, we'd be talking about a deal with a floor around $65 million and the chance to reach nine figures. 

Again, though, the Cubs aren't ready to take that much bigger leap, especially if it means moving more of the total money toward the front end of the deal. Even as they've given him a wide runway and an opportunity to prove himself as anywhere from the next Andrew McCutchen to the next Kevin Kiermaier, they harbor quiet concerns that his extremely aggressive approach will hamper his offensive output throughout his career.

Each side has some degree of interest in a deal to keep Crow-Armstrong with the Cubs well into the 2030s. Right now, they're not especially close to agreeing on the terms of such a deal, but as Crow-Armstrong settles into his job and shows increasingly encouraging flashes of offensive competence, that possibility becomes more like a reality. The fact that the Cubs control him for what could easily be the first 1,000 games of his career gives them ample leverage. Crow-Armstrong's leverage, meanwhile, is the fact that his tools could permit him to blossom into one of the best players in the game—rapidly tripling his reasonable asking price. The Cubs have to decide how long to wait him out before taking a step toward him in talks, to avoid suddenly finding him much harder to sign when they most want to.

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[JunkyardWalrus]

I can't imagine many extensions coming any time soon. When looking at the direction Ricketts is tanking the franchise, why would anyone want to stay here long term? Plenty of owners that are trying to win, not just profit. 

Seriously, the Cubs haven't even finished as high as 2nd place (!) since Jed took over. Drowning in a sea of mediocrity, and salary dumping as a large market (Schwarbs, Darvish, Belli) is just sad. 

[sneakypower]

i think they missed the boat on this, the time to do this was last spring despite his struggles as a show of faith for his ability (also, why aren't they doing this for Shaw as we speak?)

you don't wait til he's peaking as top-10 WAR in the early going to start conversations, agents are going to probably laugh in your face

[squally1313]

2 hours ago, sneakypower said:

i think they missed the boat on this, the time to do this was last spring despite his struggles as a show of faith for his ability (also, why aren't they doing this for Shaw as we speak?)

you don't wait til he's peaking as top-10 WAR in the early going to start conversations, agents are going to probably laugh in your face

Eh, it's certainly doable. Jackson Merrill came up last year and gave the Brewers 5.3 fWAR and then signed a 9 year extension two weeks ago. But the numbers are going to have to be a lot higher than what the rumored numbers were. 

[mul21]

8 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Eh, it's certainly doable. Jackson Merrill came up last year and gave the Brewers 5.3 fWAR and then signed a 9 year extension two weeks ago. But the numbers are going to have to be a lot higher than what the rumored numbers were. 

The Brewers getting 5 WAR from a Padres player seems unfair.  Probably why they won the division. 😜

Edited April 17, 2025 by mul21

[squally1313]

29 minutes ago, mul21 said:

The Brewers getting 5 WAR from a Padres player seems unfair.  Probably why they won the division. 😜

lol damnit. Too many Jacksons.