The Athletic: Cubs Eying Justin Turner

[ryanrc]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Justin Turner has a 118 wRC+ the last three years, and ZiPS projects him for a 112 this season.  That would make him the Cubs' 5th best hitter.  None of the other bench options project to even 90.  The projected offensive difference between Turner and Berti (our best offensive bench player currently!) is the same as last year's difference between Ian Happ and Bryce Harper.

This also grossly underestimates how much playing time reserve players get.  Even players who never hit the IL still miss ~20 games a year on average to normal rest.  So while I'm in total agreement that Turner is primarily a 1B/DH at this point, there are ~80 starts to be had backing up 1B/DH/LF/RF (the latter two indirectly through Suzuki moving out of DH) even in a fantasy world where no one gets injured enough to hit the IL this upcoming season.

nah  man, When a guy is 40, you respect father time. his 2024 sesaon wasnt very good. you dont take a smooth average

[Bertz]

Just now, ryanrc said:

nah  man, When a guy is 40, you respect father time. his 2024 sesaon wasnt very good. you dont take a smooth average

If only there was some data that gives us an objective estimate of how age impacts player performance.  Darn!

[ryanrc]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

If only there was some data that gives us an objective estimate of how age impacts player performance.  Darn!

http://blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/agecurve_wrc.png

[ryanrc]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

If only there was some data that gives us an objective estimate of how age impacts player performance.  Darn!

Checking In on the Aging Curve | FanGraphs Baseball

[KCCub]

3 minutes ago, ryanrc said:

nah  man, When a guy is 40, you respect father time. his 2024 sesaon wasnt very good. you dont take a smooth average

117 wRC+ last season. He doesn't have the power anymore, but he's going going to give you a good AB. 

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, ryanrc said:

Checking In on the Aging Curve | FanGraphs Baseball

Do you...think ZiPS (or any projection for that matter) doesn't know about this?

[ryanrc]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

If only there was some data that gives us an objective estimate of how age impacts player performance.  Darn!

according to my AI autopilot, only 1 major player recently had an up year after age 40, and it was Albert Pujols. And he wasnt playing at one of the lest hitter friendly parks for power right handers in baseball (wrigley). 
 

Albert Pujols:

• 2020: .622 OPS

• 2021: .717 OPS

• 2022: .895 OPS
  
  But the next best example I can find is Nelson Cruz, who hit .682 OPS. 
  
  If Turner is an impact player off the bench this year, call me wrong, but the odds are terribly low. 
  
   

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, ryanrc said:

according to my AI autopilot, only 1 major player recently had an up year after age 40, and it was Albert Pujols. And he wasnt playing at one of the lest hitter friendly parks for power right handers in baseball (wrigley). 
 

Albert Pujols:

• 2020: .622 OPS

• 2021: .717 OPS

• 2022: .895 OPS
  
  But the next best example I can find is Nelson Cruz, who hit .682 OPS. 
  
  If Turner is an impact player off the bench this year, call me wrong, but the odds are terribly low. 
  
   

Why are you setting the bar at "up year" and "impact player" for someone everyone is clear eyed will be on the bench?

[KCCub]

4 minutes ago, ryanrc said:

according to my AI autopilot, only 1 major player recently had an up year after age 40, and it was Albert Pujols. And he wasnt playing at one of the lest hitter friendly parks for power right handers in baseball (wrigley). 
 

Albert Pujols:

• 2020: .622 OPS

• 2021: .717 OPS

• 2022: .895 OPS
  
  But the next best example I can find is Nelson Cruz, who hit .682 OPS. 
  
  If Turner is an impact player off the bench this year, call me wrong, but the odds are terribly low. 
  
   

No one is expecting him to have an up year compared to last season. ZiPS projects a 112 wRC+, with Steamer at 106. They would be improving on Berti's 89 wRC+ projection. 

[ryanrc]

4 minutes ago, KCCub said:

No one is expecting him to have an up year compared to last season. ZiPS projects a 112 wRC+, with Steamer at 106. They would be improving on Berti's 89 wRC+ projection. 

if all we wanted was a DH, and we had unlimited money, and we didnt have Suzuki, as I said, yes, sign Justin turner. 

If we had an injury, sign justin turner. 

Howver, there is only one thing i dont have on my bingo card as a good roster idea: a players who is a pure dh/1b sitting on teh bench getting 100 at bats at only DH/1b, subbing for only Busch s uzuki, being paid premium money. 

I guarantee you some other team has more use for him than we are. That is the whole point. This is a matter of roster chemistry, timing, and situation. I would be SHOCKED if we signed turner and outbid other teams, simply to have him deliver 100-150 at bats. 

 As I said, the real issue his is roster fit. 
and again, we have been cursed with bad play at 3rd, and i would HATE to repeat that for a third season in a row just on the hopes a 40-41 year old guy has an up season, while he blocks Matt Shaw and had a negative overall war contribution at the hot corner compared to a BErti who has a positive WAR contribution at the same position.  

[ryanrc]

9 minutes ago, KCCub said:

No one is expecting him to have an up year compared to last season. ZiPS projects a 112 wRC+, with Steamer at 106. They would be improving on Berti's 89 wRC+ projection. 

I agree with steamer- 106 is a good projection. but after you subtract his poor glove and his roster hogging spot, its not a pretty picture. He belongs in Seattle, I think, where he fits better. 

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, KCCub said:

No one is expecting him to have an up year compared to last season. ZiPS projects a 112 wRC+, with Steamer at 106. They would be improving on Berti's 89 wRC+ projection. 

And ZIPS (the most optimistic projection for Turner) gives him 1.0 fWAR in 478 PAs vs Berti getting 1.3 fWAR in 319. It's not an either/or situation, we can have both, but Turner is still little more than a 'use it (the money) or lose it' situation for me. He's basically there to start against Chris Sale and Blake Snell and then pinch hit for Michael Busch if they're able to get a LHRP against him? If we can't trust Canario and his .961 OPS against RHPs in AAA last year to do this for PCA (and maybe even Busch), then what is he even doing here?

We currently have $30m to spend. Turner is a nice luxury if we still have this money this time next week, but there's better ways to spend this money.

[ryanrc]

33 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Why are you setting the bar at "up year" and "impact player" for someone everyone is clear eyed will be on the bench?

THE PRICETAG!!!!


Justin turner made over 13 million last year! I dont think these folks are grasping the pricetag for this guy, or how he would rarely even get any serious opportunities to hit with our stacked lineup. 
 
if you wanted to make good use of that kind of money, you wouldnt send it on a backup 1b/dh. No team in the elague has an overpaid bench backup at THOSE SPECIFIC POSITIONS 🙂 it simply not a thing you do.
 
youd be better off holding hte money and making a late season splash with a BIG move. 

[KCCub]

13 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

And ZIPS (the most optimistic projection for Turner) gives him 1.0 fWAR in 478 PAs vs Berti getting 1.3 fWAR in 319. It's not an either/or situation, we can have both, but Turner is still little more than a 'use it (the money) or lose it' situation for me.

Berti's projected value is coming from his defense/base running. I was specifically referring to wRC+ and who would you rather have taking the ABs in question, Berti vs Turner. Not kicking Berti off the roster. 

15 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

We currently have $30m to spend. Turner is a nice luxury if we still have this money this time next week, but there's better ways to spend this money.

Turner is going to get what, around $7/$8m. Curious what you are doing with that money instead? This is all in the scenario of Bregman not signing with us of course. 

[KCCub]

1 minute ago, ryanrc said:

THE PRICETAG!!!!


Justin turner made over 13 million last year! I dont think these folks are grasping the pricetag for this guy, or how he would rarely even get any serious opportunities to hit with our stacked lineup. 
 
if you wanted to make good use of that kind of money, you wouldnt send it on a backup 1b/dh. No team in the elague has an overpaid bench backup at THOSE SPECIFIC POSITIONS 🙂 it simply not a thing you do.
 
youd be better off holding hte money and making a late season splash with a BIG move. 

Crowdsource projects 1/$8m for Turner FWIW

[ryanrc]

Just now, KCCub said:

Crowdsource projects 1/$8m for Turner FWIW

yep, and thats usually the price of a FULLTIME DH, not a 150 at bat utility pinch hitter who cant even catch anymore. 

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, ryanrc said:

THE PRICETAG!!!!


Justin turner made over 13 million last year! I dont think these folks are grasping the pricetag for this guy, or how he would rarely even get any serious opportunities to hit with our stacked lineup. 
 
if you wanted to make good use of that kind of money, you wouldnt send it on a backup 1b/dh. No team in the elague has an overpaid bench backup at THOSE SPECIFIC POSITIONS 🙂 it simply not a thing you do.
 
youd be better off holding hte money and making a late season splash with a BIG move. 

Currently, the Cubs have around $30m under the LT. Now, the Cubs may sign Bregman, which makes this entire thing moot - they probably won't sign Turner in that case, so let's assume that the Cubs don't sign Bregman, but do sign Turner.

At this stage, it's likely Turner will make >$10m this year - not only has he not signed, he's 40 now. The market just isn't there. So the difference in LT money remaining is $30m in the event they didn't sign Turner after missing on Bregman, and $20m (or more) would be the remainder if they did. So here's the question: what exactly do you think the Cubs would be able to do in the first scenario mid-season that they can't in the second?  

[ryanrc]

3 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Crowdsource projects 1/$8m for Turner FWIW

the #1 fan mistake is overspending at beginning of a season,

Fans rarely grasp that you dont need overkill. any insurance wins are very expensive. YToure better off waiting, letting things evolve, see where you stand, and make necessary roster moves exactly when you know what you need. 

people get hurt. wait to see what happens. it could be a new starter. a new closer, really, any position could become a position of need midseason. If you already spent the money on a backup 1b/dh, you are paying a ton of money per at bat for a guy whos not gettin gmuch work- on an at bat basis, you're paying the guy like hs a 30 million dollar superstar just to pinch hit.

No- have flexibility, make the big move later! Betting on injuries to suzuki and busch is a bad bet. they are both better hitters Than turner now, and you'l' wish you had that money back. 

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Berti's projected value is coming from his defense/base running. I was specifically referring to wRC+ and who would you rather have taking the ABs in question, Berti vs Turner. Not kicking Berti off the roster. 

But which ABs in question? If we're stripping out defense and base running, we're basically just talking about pinch hitting right? He's not pinch hitting for Happ, Tucker, Suzuki, Swanson, Hoerner. If he becomes someone who has to take key PAs from Shaw, we probably have a problem bigger than a Justin Turner solution. For Busch and PCA, it's probably only against LHPs. Amaya or Kelly sure, but they're going to try to avoid using the backup catcher whenever possible. 

I think the theory beyond that is that injuries happen, which they do, and Turner theoretically slots into the lineup in case of an injury to Happ, PCA, Tucker, Suzuki, or Busch. I'd rather that just be Caissie. 

9 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Turner is going to get what, around $7/$8m. Curious what you are doing with that money instead? This is all in the scenario of Bregman not signing with us of course. 

Overpay for Cease or King, overpay for a Marlins starter, overpay for a Mariners starter, sign Robertson, take Suarez off the Padres hands as a salary dump, sign one of the crappy starters (Corbin, Gibson, Flexen, Lynn, Quintana....whoever the pitch labs likes the best) to build redundancies in the rotation against injuries as a lot of the supporting cast barely pitched last year (and, in the case of Assad/Birdsell, are already dealing with things). If none of the above, or if we do one of those things and still can fit Turner and TDL space, then, yes, give me Turner. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

14 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

But which ABs in question? If we're stripping out defense and base running, we're basically just talking about pinch hitting right? He's not pinch hitting for Happ, Tucker, Suzuki, Swanson, Hoerner. If he becomes someone who has to take key PAs from Shaw, we probably have a problem bigger than a Justin Turner solution. For Busch and PCA, it's probably only against LHPs. Amaya or Kelly sure, but they're going to try to avoid using the backup catcher whenever possible. 

I think the theory beyond that is that injuries happen, which they do, and Turner theoretically slots into the lineup in case of an injury to Happ, PCA, Tucker, Suzuki, or Busch. I'd rather that just be Caissie. 

Overpay for Cease or King, overpay for a Marlins starter, overpay for a Mariners starter, sign Robertson, take Suarez off the Padres hands as a salary dump, sign one of the crappy starters (Corbin, Gibson, Flexen, Lynn, Quintana....whoever the pitch labs likes the best) to build redundancies in the rotation against injuries as a lot of the supporting cast barely pitched last year (and, in the case of Assad/Birdsell, are already dealing with things). If none of the above, or if we do one of those things and still can fit Turner and TDL space, then, yes, give me Turner. 

A Turner-caliber bat probably starts close to 50 games when you consider platoon hedging(for Busch and potentially PCA if they like Tucker in CF), being the best bat for DH if an OF is rested.  That probably becomes more like 75 when you consider injuries.  Maybe I'm being slightly optimistic, but you throw in pinch hitting and it's not hard to get to 300 PA.  I've been on record that I'd prefer a SP addition over Bregman so no argument about the impact, but Turner is not really mutually exclusive with that, and having playing time to be worth it won't be an issue.

[KCCub]

11 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

But which ABs in question? If we're stripping out defense and base running, we're basically just talking about pinch hitting right? 

I think the theory beyond that is that injuries happen, which they do, and Turner theoretically slots into the lineup in case of an injury to Happ, PCA, Tucker, Suzuki, or Busch. I'd rather that just be Caissie. 

No, we're not only talking about PH (You answer part of it above). There's going to be what around 150-200 PAs against LHP (Starting for Busch against LHP and PH). Suzuki himself has missed an average of 33 games per season over his 3 year span. You have normal rest/days off for nagging injures to account for. With all that considered, there is an actual team need for a back up 1b on the roster, preferably RH. TT lined that out earlier in this thread.

21 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Overpay for Cease or King, overpay for a Marlins starter, overpay for a Mariners starter, sign Robertson, take Suarez off the Padres hands as a salary dump, sign one of the crappy starters (Corbin, Gibson, Flexen, Lynn, Quintana....whoever the pitch labs likes the best) to build redundancies in the rotation against injuries as a lot of the supporting cast barely pitched last year (and, in the case of Assad/Birdsell, are already dealing with things). If none of the above, or if we do one of those things and still can fit Turner and TDL space, then, yes, give me Turner. 

I mean sure, if we're playing MLB The Show "Get it done Jed". We trade for King - $7.75m, sign Robertson $10m, Turner - $8m. I think almost every thing you want above is attainable with Turner (SP & BP), but we both know it's not a realistic outcome for right now. 

[KCCub]

At the end of the day this is where I'm at on Turner. Turner in a vacuum, I don't love (Age, regressing power, etc). With the Cubs team context needs, I'm fine with adding him for around $7/$8m. We've (myself included) have absolutely bitched the past few seasons with how bad our bench has been, specifically the lack of a quality hitter. We can't have our cake and eat it too. As currently stands on paper, the bench is underwhelming. If Jed adds Turner to address that, I'm not going to complain as I see the value he would add. 

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

A Turner-caliber bat probably starts close to 50 games when you consider platoon hedging(for Busch and potentially PCA if they like Tucker in CF), being the best bat for DH if an OF is rested.  That probably becomes more like 75 when you consider injuries.  Maybe I'm being slightly optimistic, but you throw in pinch hitting and it's not hard to get to 300 PA.  I've been on record that I'd prefer a SP addition over Bregman so no argument about the impact, but Turner is not really mutually exclusive with that, and having playing time to be worth it won't be an issue.

No arguments that we can get him to 300 PAs if we wanted to. I'd just rather not....we've got like 10 years of PCA and Busch and I don't want to have to worry about finding handcuffs for them every year without a much bigger sample size that says they can't handle LHPs. Obviously you lose defense in a Busch for Turner swap, the knock on effects for him filling in for PCA (worse defense in center, worse defense in right) are similar. 

Again, fine signing him if we can't find anything better to do with the money. You're basically making Canario irrelevant if you're saying he hedges PCA and also Suzuki fills in to spell Turner and Happ, which I'm not going to lose sleep about, but in that case go get some pinch runner/defense only outfielder? But ultimately it's the timing/ordering of all these hypotheticals that is making me real hesitant. Turner at $8m means Bregman is off the table (or else a Nico trade is essentially a guarantee). I'm probably getting too caught up in these fading starting pitching hopes, I don't know. 

24 minutes ago, KCCub said:

mean sure, if we're playing MLB The Show "Get it done Jed". We trade for King - $7.75m, sign Robertson $10m, Turner - $8m. I think almost every thing you want above is attainable with Turner (SP & BP), but we both know it's not a realistic outcome for right now. 

We don't know for sure that Turner is just sitting around waiting for us to offer him a contract, so these are all hypotheticals. Taking Suarez off the Padres hands seems like a good way to lower asking price for one of the starters, which is another $9m. Taking a larger contract (Haniger) could get us a starter elsewhere. 

[Rcal10]

Here is where I am with Turner. If they get Bregman all conversation about Turner is out. If they don’t get Bregman the best use of money and far and away more important than a bench bat should be for a starting pitcher in a trade. After that I would put a solid bench bat. I do believe a right handed hitting guy who could play first wouldn’t about 250 AB with the Cubs. Besides filling in for injuries he can DH when any outfielder is given a day off. Plus inevitably someone will get hurt during the year. At $7M to $8M they would still have enough money to go after King or Cease or even a Seattle pitcher if they want to give up prospects. I would put Turner, or even Canha, ahead of another pen arm. I would much rather spend on a bench bat than dumpster dive for another staring pitcher in the Quintana, Lynn, Corbin, etc section of free agents. Quality arm first, someone to slot ahead of Taillon, bench bat next. 

[ryanrc]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Here is where I am with Turner. If they get Bregman all conversation about Turner is out. If they don’t get Bregman the best use of money and far and away more important than a bench bat should be for a starting pitcher in a trade. After that I would put a solid bench bat. I do believe a right handed hitting guy who could play first wouldn’t about 250 AB with the Cubs. Besides filling in for injuries he can DH when any outfielder is given a day off. Plus inevitably someone will get hurt during the year. At $7M to $8M they would still have enough money to go after King or Cease or even a Seattle pitcher if they want to give up prospects. I would put Turner, or even Canha, ahead of another pen arm. I would much rather spend on a bench bat than dumpster dive for another staring pitcher in the Quintana, Lynn, Corbin, etc section of free agents. Quality arm first, someone to slot ahead of Taillon, bench bat next. 

my choice was Grichuk. we missed on him. he was hitting almost .900 OPS against lefties and was THE BEST lefty killer in all MLB last year with less than 400 at bats. Far better option for overspending on the bench than Turner. But that was also when we didnt have Berti, or Pressly/Brasier, which shifted the whole scenario. Honestly, the only reason we are having this conversation is because we let other elite platoon bat options go that were far superior, and chose those three guys instead. 

The fact that this conversation is "turner or bust" means its really a bust! 

I'm doubling down on the argument that we dont need jack squat right now because all the best eals come later in the season. the general obsession with the "complete postseason roster before spring training" has gotta go. No serious GM in the league thinks like that. Its a typical fan obsession to scrap for every single homerun or strikeout, no matter the risk or cost, and with complete disregard to midseason thinking.. 

I guarantee you at least half a dozen better postseason bat options appear as the season goes on, and that no 26th roster spot matters one iota for proving we can beat the brewers. period. I also guarantee you a better trade deal comes along than betting the farm for Dylan Cease, if we wait. 

Lets just roll with the punches and make our big moves for when they really count.