The Cubs Should Keep Nico Hoerner Even If They Sign Alex Bregman

[Andrew Wright]

The talk of the Cubs world the last three days has been the possibility of signing former Astros third baseman Alex Bregman. If they do complete the blockbuster signing, can they also find a way to keep their stalwart second baseman?

Image courtesy of Norm Hall/Getty Images

Rumors have been swirling regarding what they Cubs have offered Alex Bregman, which other teams are in the mix, and what Bregman and his camp prefer in a contract. Another rumor that has gained steam is that the Cubs will be looking to move off of second baseman Nico Hoerner if they do sign Bregman. Trading Hoerner after a Bregman signing would be a mistake and here's a few reasons why.

The first reason for needing to keep Hoerner is that he brings too much value to too many places to just ship away and let a prospect play over him. Hoerner is a career .278 hitter with a .338 career on-base percentage. Hoerner is in the 99th percentile in strikeout rate, striking out in just 10.3% of his plate appearances last season. The Cubs were 17th in offensive strikeouts in 2024, and that would more than likely be worse with the departure of Hoerner. Hoerner had a bit of a down season in 2024, when he posted his worst OPS since 2020 (.708), but there is little reason to believe that a bounce back is not on the horizon.

Defensively, Hoerner won a Gold Glove award in 2023, and finished fourth among second basemen in both Defensive Runs Saved (eight) and Outs Above Average (11). Their middle-of-the-field defense with him, Dansby Swanson, and Pete Crow-Armstrong may be the best in all of baseball.

The second reason is that Matt Shaw may not be ready for the Major Leagues. Yes, all the talks from front offices and scouts and experts say that Shaw is more than ready to play at the big-league level, but wasn't the same said about Matt Mervis? The first baseman was supposed to be a "high floor" slugger with a refined plate approach, and now he is no longer with the organization after being traded to the Marlins earlier in the offseason. Shaw is a higher quality prospect now than Mervis ever was, but the point remains: trusting Shaw to immediately replace an established veteran like Hoerner could be a fool's errand.

If Shaw comes up and doesn't produce and needs to be sent down, then who do you insert into the lineup in his spot? Vidal Brujan? Jon Berti? Gage Workman? None of those options are remotely close to the best one, which would be keeping Hoerner and letting Shaw be a utility man, rather than coming up to the big leagues and starting every single day right away. It gives him an opportunity to get his feet wet and if he begins to outproduce Hoerner, then you make a move.

Finally, the last reason to keep Hoerner is that it just makes sense logically. If your goal as a team is to win as many baseball games as you possibly can, then it makes sense to keep as many good players on your team as you can. You don't have to sign a really good player in Bregman and then give away a good player in Hoerner, even if the Cubs want you to think they're working with limited money.

It's pretty sensible to argue that signing Bregman and trading Hoerner is much worse of an option than keeping both of them. Shaw's bat may have more potential than Hoerner's down the road, but the latter is a sterling defender and baserunner on top of his offensive utility. Nothing is finalized yet and it appears that the Bregman situation is dragging out longer than expected, but if the Cubs are able to sign him, they'd be foolish to trade Hoerner in response.

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[CubinNY]

They will likely have to trade someone due to the Scrooge McDuck family but why not wait until the end of spring training or better yet July?

[Statyllus]

Agree 100%! Nico is a proven performer but there are three (3) categories of Cubs fans that have different agendas: 1. Fans that just want to win now, 2 Prospect Huggers that act as though having good prospects is an end onto itself- it is “winning” and finally 3. The Budget Watchers who love to “count the beans” along with Jed and Tom.  

[ryanrc]

that's basically what I just said on several prior discussions (and kinda got lectured about how that cant be true)/. 

[ryanrc]

however, let me push back on Berti. This is a guy who produced 2.4 WAR TWICE in the recent past (2 seasons). He can run like Hoerner, and his glove isnt THAT much worse.

That's a GREAT emergency option in a league where 2.4 WAR is typical for a starting 2nd baseman on a small market team. 

Berti was an absolute steal, and I can't understand why we got him for less than 5 million- that's his worth as a utility player. We got him for 2-3 million depending on incentives. 

On the other hand, Shaw's the real answer at 2nd (not 3rd). 3rd is not his natural position.  I could see him getting reps at both places as a rookie. 

I'm still not convinced we start Shaw at 2nd if Bregman fails to sign. 

I still think we sign DeJong to play 3rd. 

[ryanrc]

12 hours ago, Statyllus said:

Agree 100%! Nico is a proven performer but there are three (3) categories of Cubs fans that have different agendas: 1. Fans that just want to win now, 2 Prospect Huggers that act as though having good prospects is an end onto itself- it is “winning” and finally 3. The Budget Watchers who love to “count the beans” along with Jed and Tom.  

I am a bean counter, meaning that I realistically work with the team philosophy we have and attempt to argue for the best "under tax" team possible and the long term build. 
Keep in mind we were in a rebuild period, and now we are projected as the third best record in baseball, even before we resolve the rest of our budget (and, that record is largely based on division opponents being so weak). 
its not fair to Hoyer to ignore the rebuild period, and that it was sensible to take a few years to build a long term winner than a win-now squad that sucks again immediately. 

Edited February 9, 2025 by ryanrc

[Jimbocubman]

I totally agree 100% , if they need to make a change due to CBT , do it @ trade deadline.

[Brock Beauchamp]

19 minutes ago, Jimbocubman said:

I totally agree 100% , if they need to make a change due to CBT , do it @ trade deadline.

Welcome to NSBB!

[Rcal10]

23 hours ago, Statyllus said:

Agree 100%! Nico is a proven performer but there are three (3) categories of Cubs fans that have different agendas: 1. Fans that just want to win now, 2 Prospect Huggers that act as though having good prospects is an end onto itself- it is “winning” and finally 3. The Budget Watchers who love to “count the beans” along with Jed and Tom.  

I agree with the first two. But the bean counters are just people talking realistically. You can’t talk about what the Cubs SHOULD do and not discuss the budget. Otherwise you are not being realistic.